Next weekend, the faith-based drama The Shack hits theaters. Based on a bestselling 2007 novel by William P. Young, it hopes to lure in Christian audiences who have made various pictures exceed their opening weekend expectations.
Sam Worthington, Octavia Spencer, Radha Mitchell, Alice Braga, and Tim McGraw are among the cast headlining this tale of a man experiencing a crisis of faith after his young daughter is murdered.
Movies of this genre are often tough to predict and, as mentioned, they can often surprise with more than anticipated numbers. Solid word of mouth could allow this to have legs in subsequent weekends. I’ll predict a high single digits debut is likely.
The Shack opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million
After nearly 17 years playing the most popular cinematic character in the X-Men universe, Hugh Jackman is Wolverine for reportedly the final time in Logan, out next weekend. This is the third stand-alone feature focused on Jackman’s character following 2009’s X–MenOrigins: Wolverine and 2013’s TheWolverine. Like the 2013 entry, it’s directed by James Mangold. Patrick Stewart appears here as Professor X and other supporting players include Boyd Holbrook and Richard E. Grant.
One thing is for certain: Logan is receiving easily the best reviews of the trio and it currently sits at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a considerable upgrade of the 38% of Origins and 69% of TheWolverine. On the flip side, the franchise as a whole suffered a minor setback when last summer’s X–Men: Apocalypse was the second lowest grosser of the six X pics, with only X–Men: FirstClass earning less.
Let us take a further trip down stand-alone lane, shall we? Origins made $85 million for its start in summer ’09 with an overall $179M haul. Four years later, TheWolverine managed a $53 million opening weekend with $132M overall.
So where does Logan land? The solid reviews should help (something Apocalypse didn’t have). So should the report that it’s Jackman’s swan song. It should land higher than TheWolverine, but not achieve what Origins accomplished (it was the first X flick to open after franchise highest grosser TheLastStand).
It’s a weekend where the bulk of movie lovers attention may be focused on Sunday’s Oscar ceremony and not what’s playing in the multiplex itself. There are three releases going wide: Jordan Peele’s race themed horror pic Get Out, animated musical comedy Rock Dog, and Felicity Jones led action thriller Collide. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each of them here:
The real question in this last weekend of February, as I see it, is how the critically acclaimed Get Out performs. I have it in the mid teens, which almost certainly means a second place showing to The Lego Batman Movie in its third frame. However, the horror flick certainly has breakout potential and could go higher (61% of my blog readers believe my estimate is too low).
Both Rock Dog and Collide appear headed for dismal showings. My respective predictions of $4.4 million and $2.1 million have them outside of the top five.
And with that, the top 5 predictions for what should be a rather slow weekend:
1. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing a drop of 32%)
2. Get Out
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
3. Fifty Shades Darker
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of $51%)
4. John Wick: Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)
5. The Great Wall
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (February 17-20)
It was a rather ho-hum Presidents Day Weekend as three newcomers all failed to connect with audiences. The Lego Batman Movie easily maintained the top spot with $42.7 million over the four-day holiday, under my $49.4M estimate. Its total has built up to $107M.
Fifty Shades Darker stayed in second with $22.6 million, in line with my $21.3M prognosis for an overall $91M gross.
Matt Damon’s expensive action epic The Great Wall debuted at a disappointing third with $21.5 million, shy of my $25.6M prediction. With mediocre reviews, look for it to crumble quickly.
John Wick: Chapter 2 was fourth with $18.9 million (I said $21.5M) for a two-week tally of $61M.
The Ice Cube/Charlie Day Fist Fight was punched out by audiences with only a $14.1 opening in fifth, well under my generous $25.1M guesstimate.
Finally, the Gore Verbinski directed A Cure for Wellness was DOA in 11th place with just $5 million (less than half my $10.2M forecast).
Action thriller Collide, out next weekend, was filmed nearly three years ago and has collected dust on the stateside shelf. It was scheduled to be released domestically nearly a year and a half ago back before Relativity Media filed for bankruptcy.
On the plus side, at least one of the actors in it has become considerably more famous since. Felicity Jones is among the cast and her profile has gone up immensely since Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. It shouldn’t matter much. Other stars include Nicholas Hoult, Anthony Hopkins, Ben Kingsley, and Marwan Kenzari.
The bank heist flick has received very limited promotion and it looks like it’s essentially being dumped into an uninterested marketplace. I believe Collide may not even reach $3 million and be On Demand your viewing pleasure quite soon.
For dogs about to rock… we salute you? That’s the question audiences will answer next weekend when the animated tale (tail?) Rock Dog hits theaters. The 3D generated comedy was co-produced by a Chinese studio and already opened in that country to lackluster results.
The voice cast features Luke Wilson as a canine with musical aspirations. Other well-known faces behind the mic include J.K. Simmons, Eddie Izzard, Lewis Black, Sam Elliot, Kenan Thompson, Jorge Garcia, and Matt Dillon. Family audiences should still be checking out Lego Batman in its third weekend and the recent musical ‘toon Sing was a box office smash.
As I see it, Rock Dog is highly likely to get lost in the shuffle with its intended crowd. I have doubts this will even reach $5 million for its start.
A performer known for a groundbreaking comedy sketch show directing a horror film with racial overtones? Get Out is certainly not your typical genre fare nor are its reviews. We’ll see how this mix plays with audiences next weekend. Jordan Peele (one half of Comedy Central’s Key and Peele) is behind the camera for the tale of an interracial couple who visit the girl’s Caucasian parents. They find a history of African Americans disappearing in the community.
Daniel Kaluuya. Allison Williams, Bradley Whitford, and Catherine Keener headline the cast. When Get Out premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January, it did so to many raves and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The electric word of mouth should provide a boost, but I’m skeptical as to how much of one. Traditional slasher horror fans may not know what to make of it and the edgy subject matter may not necessarily bring others in.
That said, I believe a debut in the mid teens is likely which would be a perfectly acceptable roll out.
President’s Day weekend has arrived at the box office with three new titles debuting over the four-day holiday frame: Matt Damon’s action epic The Great Wall, Ice Cube/Charlie Day comedy Fist Fight, and Gore Verbinski’s horror thriller A Cure for Wellness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None of the trio is likely to dislodge the Caped Crusader and his Lego friends from the top perch in its second weekend. In fact, this particular February weekend often sees holdovers experience smallish declines. The Lego Movie dipped just 9% in the 2014 PD weekend and I expect the same type of minor dip for its spin-off.
With the #1 film safely (I think) determined, the rest of the top five is much more unpredictable. Looking over the past few President’s Day weekends, newbies opening in the mid to high 20s is commonplace. This applied to titles such as Unknown, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, About Last Night, and Robocop. I foresee both Wall and Fight falling in this range for a photo finish for #2.
Then there’s Fifty Shades Darker and John Wick: Chapter 2, both in their sophomore weekends. I don’t see Darker having a 74% drop like its predecessor Fifty Shades of Grey experienced (it had a much bigger opening for one thing). However, I could see it losing half its audience easily as grosses for this franchise are front loaded. Wick may lose less than a third of its debut crowd for a solid hold. And that could create another photo finish between these sequels.
This leaves A Cure for Wellness. Strong reviews may have helped this, but it’s not getting them and I’m diagnosing just a low double digits premiere for a probable sixth place showing.
And with that, my top 6 projections for this busy weekend:
1. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $49.4 million (representing a drop of 6%)
2. The Great Wall
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
3. Fist Fight
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)
5. Fifty Shades Darker
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. A Cure for Wellness
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (February 10-12)
The Lego Batman Movie took the top spot, though not with as much ease as many thought it would. The critically acclaimed animated spin-off grossed $53 million, a decent number but not near the $69M made by The Lego Movie in its inaugural weekend and under my $65.8M projection. That said, as mentioned above, its drop this weekend should be slight.
Fifty Shades Darker opened in second at $46.6 million, in line with my $44.8M estimate. This is far from the $85 million achieved two years back by Fifty Shades of Grey, but it’s actually above some of the predictions from prognosticators in the past week or so.
John Wick: Chapter 2 capitalized on the goodwill left over from the 2014 original with a strong $30.4 million, more than doubling the $14M earned by its predecessor two and a half years back. It easily eclipsed my $20.7M estimate.
Holdovers rounded out the top five with Split dropping to fourth at $9.5 million (I said $8.2M) for a $112M total and Hidden Figures at fifth with $8 million (I said $6.9M) for a $131M overall haul.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The cinematic stylings of director Gore Verbinski returns to screens next weekend when A Cure for Wellness opens. The horror thriller set in the Swiss Alps finds Dane DeHaan as a businessman trapped in a mysterious “wellness” center. Jason Isaacs and Mia Goth costar. Its trailer is filled with striking visuals that have part of Verbinski’s repertoire. The filmmaker had some massive hits with The Ring and Pirates of the Caribbean and its first two sequels. However, his previous effort The Lone Ranger was an expensive dud.
While the previews look fascinating, reviews have not been very strong and it stands at just 36% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Its two and a half hour running time (something several critics have noted as a flaw) could also be a detriment, as well as competition for the same audience from John Wick: Chapter 2 and The Great Wall.
Wellness is highly likely to place third among the trio of newcomers debuting over Presidents Day weekend and it could struggle to place in the top five. I’ll say a low double digits premiere is the diagnosis here.
A Cure for Wellness opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
Ice Cube and Charlie Day headline the comedy Fist Fight, which hits theaters over Presidents Day weekend. A loose remake of the 1987 cult pic Three O’Clock High, costars include Tracy Morgan (in his first film after his auto accident), Jillian Bell, Christina Hendricks, Dennis Haysbert, and Kumail Nanjiani.
Mr. Cube has had his share of laugh inducing hits and franchises over the years with Barbershop, 21/22 Jump Street, and Ride Along. Day is best known for TV’s “It Always Sunny in Philadelphia” and the Horrible Bosses flicks.
Fight pits Cube as a teacher challenging his fellow educator to a schoolyard brawl. With its simple concept, known stars in the genre, and really zero competition when it comes to comedies (save for Lego Batman I suppose), I’ll predict this manages a mid 20s four day debut. It could even fight for the highest opening among the two others newbies (The Great Wall, A Cure for Wellness) over the holiday weekend.
Fist Fight opening weekend prediction: $25.1 million
Just a few months after reviving his Jason Bourne character, Matt Damon is back in theaters battling monsters in China in The Great Wall, out next weekend. This is the most expensive film shot entirely in that country and it was released overseas at the end of 2016, grossing over $200 million thus far. The historical action fantasy comes from acclaimed director Zhang Yimou, who’s responsible for foreign hits such as Raise the Red Lantern, Hero, and House of Flying Daggers. Costars include Jing Tian, Pedro Pascal, Andy Lau, and Willem Dafoe.
How will the pic, which seems made primarily to make its bulk of cash in Asia, play stateside? It could face some hurdles. Reviews haven’t been too strong and it stands at 44% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
As I see it, The Great Wall will be lucky to break $100 million domestically and it probably will fall short. Opening over the long Presidents Day weekend, I think it should manage a mid to high 20s debut with possibly a fairly steep decline the following weekend.
The Great Wall opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million
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