Next weekend brings the techno thriller TheCircle, based on a 2013 bestseller by Dave Eggers. The pic casts Emma Watson as an employee at a powerful Internet corporation where everything is not as it seems. There’s some other heavy hitters among the cast: Tom Hanks, John Boyega of the new StarWars trilogy, Patton Oswalt and Bill Paxton in his final film appearance.
The source material in which it’s based has its fans. It also doesn’t hurt that Watson is fresh off the mega blockbuster BeautyandtheBeast (and Hanks never hurts either). TheFateoftheFurious should still manage a three-peat in this final April weekend, but I have a feeling TheCircle has a better chance of over performing than underperforming.
I’ll predict a mid teens to high teens debut is likely.
TheCircle opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million
For my How to Be a Latin Lover prediction, click here:
It is one busy post Easter weekend at the box office as six films roll out in wide or semi release. They are: romantic thriller Unforgettable with Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson, DisneyNature production Born in China, Armenian Genocide drama The Promise with Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac, found footage horror pic Phoenix Forgotten, British action-comedy Free Fire, and period piece adventure The Lost City of Z with Charlie Hunnam and Robert Pattinson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Before we get to the newbies, one thing seems for certain: The Fate of the Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its near $100M opening over Easter (more on that below). I foresee a drop in the mid 50s for it.
I see Unforgettable having little troubleplacing highest among the debuts for a decent second place showing. Then it’s family holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast in third and fourth with Born in China rounding out the top five.
And here’s where it gets really interesting! I’m not expecting much out of Phoenix Forgotten or The Promise and have them opening in range with where Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style should be at in their third weekends. I also believe The Lost City of Z will do fairly well on only 500 screens and actually have it in sixth. Bottom line: for the numbers 6-10, I have them separated by only half a million bucks.
Notice I didn’t mention Free Fire. That’s because I actually have it outside the top ten at $2.3M (which would probably put it 11th). That said, I’ve yet to screen a theater count for it and that could change the dynamic.
So… lots to chew on this weekend and here’s a projected top ten:
1. The Fate of the Furious
Predicted Gross: $43.2 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. Unforgettable
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. Born in China
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. The Lost City of Z
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
7. Smurfs: The Lost Village
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
8. Going in Style
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)
9. Phoenix Forgotten
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
10. The Promise
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (April 14-16)
The Fate of the Furious did manage to score the second highest April opening ever and the second highest debut of the franchise, though it did come in quite a bit under my expectations. Fate made $98.7 million, just topping the $97.3M achieved by Fast & Furious 6 (and well under the series pinnacle of $147.1M that Furious 7 did). While well below my $122.7 million projection, it’s still a solid opening that should leave the Fast brand in good order.
The Boss Baby dropped to second with $16 million (I said $15M) for a $116M tally with Beauty and the Beast in third at $13.7 million (I said $14.6M) for a $454M overall haul.
Smurfs: The Lost Village continued its ho-hum run in fourth with $6.7 million (I said $7.8M) in its sophomore frame for just a $24M total. Going in Style, also in weekend #2, rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I went with $7.2M) for $23M overall.
Finally, Gifted expanded in theater count and was sixth with $3 million, under my $4.6M forecast.
James Gray’s The Lost City of Z opens in semi wide release this weekend after a pretty impressive debut in very limited fashion over Easter weekend. The pic tells the true story of explorer Percy Fawcett (Charlie Hunnam) in the Amazon in the early 20th century. Costars include Robert Pattinson, Sienna Miller, and Tom Holland.
Z closed the New York Film Festival last fall to positive word of mouth and it stands at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It grossed over $100,000 on just 4 screens this last weekend and is slated to expand to approximately 500 on Friday.
I believe this could perform similarly to The Place Beyond the Pines four years ago. Though there’s no obvious comparison between the two titles, both appeal to a more adult audience and received encouraging critical reaction. Pines made $3.8 million when it hit around 500 theaters. If Z accomplishes the same, that means I have it out doingThe Promise, Phoenix Forgotten, and Free Fire in their debuts.
The Lost City of Z opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
This Friday, British action-comedy Free Fire hits theaters stateside after it’s already premiered in the U.K. Ben Wheatley’s effort debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to decent buzz and it stands at 81% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar winner Brie Larson (fresh off Kong: Skull Island) headlines along with Sharlto Copley, Armie Hammer, Cillian Murphy, and Jack Reynor.
While the pic may garner some interest from fanboys based on its mostly positive word of mouth, the marketing campaign for Free Fire has been minimal. I don’t yet have a theater count for it, which makes this prediction a little tough (and I could revise it when that count is revealed).
Regardless, I see a low opening here and it’s best hope is likely gaining a cult following once it’s release for home viewing.
Free Fire opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
It’s being described as The Blair Witch Project, but with aliens. Phoenix Forgotten debuts in approximately 1500 theaters this Friday and it tells the true life story of strange lights that appeared over the title city some 20 years ago.
The found footage horror flick has a cast of unknowns. In fact, the biggest name involved is producer Ridley Scott, who’s clearly in extraterrestrial mode as his Alien: Covenant hits theaters next month.
Expectations for Forgotten are considerably lower. The pic has received little fanfare or buzz and I expect a very forgetful debut. It may even hold the unfortunate designation of having the lowest opening of any of the six titles hitting theaters in wide release or semi wide release this weekend, though I’ll say Free Fire and possibly The Lost City of Z get below it. And who knows? Maybe The Promise as well… this weekend is tough!
Phoenix Forgotten opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
Next weekend, ThePromise will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers but could face a serious uphill battle. From HotelRwanda director Terry George, the film is a love triangle set during the Armenian genocide in the early 20th Century. Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon make up aforementioned triangle.
The pic was once looked at as a potential Oscar hopeful before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Reviews haven’t been too kind and it stands at only 31% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Surprisingly, ThePromise is slated to debut on around 2000 screens so Open Road Films must think it could do OK. Even with the participation of Bale and Isaac, I foresee a very weak premiere.
ThePromise opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
The DisneyNature division of the Mouse Factory brings us the documentary Born in China next weekend. This is the seventh feature that the studio has timed to Earth Day focusing on nature and animals. Pandas and monkeys are the general subject in this case.
Narrated by John Krasinski, the Chinese version has already been released. The grosses of the six previous pictures have performed as follows:
Earth (2009) – $8.8 million debut
Oceans (2010) – $6 million
African Cats (2011) – $6 million
Chimpanzee (2012) – $10.6 million
Bears (2014) – $4.7 million
Monkey Kingdom (2015) – $4.5 million
As you can see, the opening weekends for the last pics have been the lowest of the bunch thus far. I suspect Born in China may fall in the same ballpark and I’ll put it just past $5M (people love pandas!).
Born in China opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
There’s a fatal attraction going on in theaters next weekend as Unforgettable debuts. The thriller stars Katherine Heigl as an ex-wife terrorizing her husband’s new bride (Rosario Dawson). Geoff Stults and Cheryl Ladd costar.
Heigl burst onto the movie scene nearly 10 years ago with mega-hit comedy Knocked Up and proceeded to headline other successful rom coms like 27 Dresses and The Ugly Truth. Since then, her star has been on the wane with lower performing pics and failed TV projects.
Unforgettable stands a shot at being a minor success. These Lifetime type flicks on the big screen have a track record of faring decently. The Boy Next Door with Jennifer Lopez debuted to nearly $15 million. Screen Gems has even slotted a mid September weekend for the past three years with such material and the results have been pleasing: 2014’s No Good Deed ($24.2M opening), The Perfect Guy ($25.8M), and When the Bough Breaks ($14.2M).
If enough females turn out for this, I could envision a premiere in the low double digits/teens to possibly mid teens (that could be stretching it).
Unforgettable opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
It’s Easter Weekend and it’s sure to be dominated by the release of The Fate of the Furious, the eighth picture in the blockbuster franchise. We also have the wide release of Gifted, a drama with Chris Evans and Octavia Spencer that expands to 1000 screens on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
My estimate for Fate would give it the second largest debut of the franchise and second biggest April bow of all time… both behind 2015’s Furious 7.
The real battle could be for the #2 slot between hit holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast. I anticipate a razor thin margin between those titles.
Last weekend’s new releases Smurfs: The Lost Village (which suffered a lackluster opening) and Going in Style should round out the top five, in what could be a potentially close race itself.
As for Gifted, it had a decent roll out in limited release this past weekend and my forecast for it would put it in sixth place.
Holdovers should dominate the remainder of the top 5.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the holiday frame:
1. The Fate of the Furious
Predicted Gross: $122.7 million
2. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 43%)
3. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
4. Smurfs: The Lost Village
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. GoinginStyle
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 40%)
6. Gifted
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (April 7-9)
The Boss Baby was tops for the second weekend in a row with $26.3 million. This is right on target with my $26.1M prognosis and the Dreamworks animated tale has made $89 million at press time.
Beauty and the Beast was second with $23.6 million, in line with my $24M estimate. The Disney smash stands at $430 million currently with $500M in its sights.
Smurfs: The Lost Village couldn’t break through with family audiences in its third place debut. The third flick in the franchise (and the first that’s totally animated) grossed just $13.2 million (I went higher with $20.4M).
The geriatric comedy GoinginStyle had an OK fourth place premiere with $11.9 million. I was close with $11.5M. The Morgan Freeman/Michael Caine pic will hope older crowds cause it to hold up well in subsequent weekends.
Ghost in the Shell was fifth with $7.3 million (I said $7.9M) to brings its unimpressive tally to just $31 million.
Finally, faith-based drama The Case for Christ made a decent case for itself with $3.9 million, just above my $3.4M estimate.
Fox Searchlight looks to offer some dramatic counter programming to TheFateoftheFurious this weekend as Gifted is presented in approximately 1000 theaters. Marc Webb, known for (500) Days of Summer and the two Andrew Garfield Spider–Man pics, directs this tale of a super smart kid caught up in a custody fight. The cast includes Chris Evans, Octavia Spencer, Mckenna Grace, Lindsay Duncan, and Jenny Slate.
Gifted has received some decent reviews as it sits at 63% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It opened in limited release this precious weekend and fared pretty well, collecting $476,000 on only 56 screens.
The pic will be showing on about 1/4 of the screens that Vin Diesel’s blockbuster will be. The best case scenario could be a premiere in the mid single digits and that’s where I have Gifted landing over Easter weekend.
Gifted opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
For my TheFateoftheFurious prediction, click here:
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