Blumhouse and WWE Studios hope that martial arts fans turn out for Birth of the Dragon, opening next weekend. Set in 1960s San Francisco, it casts Philip Ng as legend Bruce Lee and chronicles one of his most famous showdowns with Shaolin Master Wong Jack Man (Xia Yu).
The film premiered nearly a year ago at the Toronto Film Festival and it’s getting a release stateside on approximately 1500 screens. The late summer release date and lack of promotion could hinder its box office potential.
If box office predictions were made by considering the amount of Wu-Tang Clan members who might attend a screening, I’d have this higher. Minus that, I’ll say it struggles to even reach $3 million.
Birth of the Dragon opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million
Sony Pictures attempts to tap into faith-based crowds when All Saints debuts in theaters next weekend. John Corbett headlines as a corporate type gone pastor in the drama costarring Cara Buono, David Keith, and Barry Corbin. Steve Gomer, who’s primarily a TV director, is behind the camera and he also made 1998’s Barney’s Great Adventure (fun fact!).
Christian pics have had a history of sometimes outdoing projections, especially if larger churches plan outings to view it. That said, the late August release date doesn’t inspire much confidence as this is usually a very quiet time in multiplexes.
With an estimated theater count of around 800 screens, I’ll say All Saints struggles to even reach $3 million.
All Saints opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
The final animated feature of summer 2017 arrives next weekend when Leap! debuts in theaters. It will likely earn the least of them all. The tale of an orphan trying to become a ballerina has already opened in other parts of the world under the title Ballerina. It debuted in parts of Europe last December and in Canada this past February with a $57 million global tally.
Featuring the voices of Elle Fanning, Nat Wolff, Kate McKinnon, Carly Rae Jepsen, and Mel Brooks, the $30 million budgeted pic stands at a decent 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. Its stateside premiere comes in late August where studios aren’t exactly expecting heavy grosses. It may manage to be the biggest debut of the weekend (against All Saints, Birth of the Dragon, and Good Time). That’s not saying much.
Family audiences have seen plenty of animated tales this summer from Despicable Me 3 to Cars 3 to The Emoji Movie to Captain Underpants to The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which opened poorly just last weekend. With little ones returning to school, Leap! should have a tough road attracting eyeballs. A decent comp could be the Shaun the Sheep Movie from two summers ago, which managed only $4 million in its August premiere. That’s right about where I have this one.
Mid August at the box office comes with some star power as two new pictures open competing for the same audience: Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Steven Soderbergh’s heist action comedy Logan Lucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
The newbies could find themselves in a battle for the #1 spot. Lucky is winning on the reviews side with a terrific 96% on Rotten Tomatoes while Bodyguard stands at 55%. However, my inkling is that Mr. Reynolds will edge out Mr. Tatum with a gross in the mid to higher teens with Lucky in the lower teens.
There’s also the matter of Annabelle: Creation, which got off to a strong start this past weekend (more on that below). If Bodyguard and Lucky both underwhelm, the demonic doll has a slight chance to repeat at #1. However, the horror prequel is likely to suffer a drop in the mid to high 50s. If it all pans out as I see it, we will have our fourth weekend of 2017 where no movie manages to top $20 million.
The rest of the top five should be filled out by holdovers Dunkirk and The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature in its second frame after a weak start.
Lastly, the Taylor Sheridan directed thriller Wind River with Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen is slated to expand to approximately 600-700 screens. It’s been performing well with critics and in limited release. If that screen count holds true, I’d peg it at $3.1 million this weekend.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)
3. Logan Lucky
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (August 11-13)
Annabelle: Creation scared up some solid business taking in $35 million (beating my $31.4M forecast) to easily place #1. The horror prequel fell just shy of the $37.1 million accomplished by its 2014 predecessor and keeps the Conjuring universe chugging right along.
Dunkirk remained in second with $10.8 million (I was a touch higher at $11.7M). It’s made $153M thus far.
Family audiences largely rejected The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which debuted in third to just $8.3 million (under my $12.2M prediction). The sequel made less than half of the $19 million achieved out of the gate by the 2014 original. Opening on over 4000 screens, it had a per screen average of just over $2,000. On the bright side, parents who did take their kids to see it probably had plenty of room to roam about the theater. Ouch.
The Dark Tower went from first to fourth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M). bringing its lackluster two-week tally to only $34M.
Girls Trip placed fifth with $6.4 million (I projected $7.2M) as it stands at $97M and should cross the century mark this week.
The Emoji Movie was #6, also with $6.4 million (I said $6M) for a $63M total.
Finally, Brie Larson drama The Glass Castle had a respectable debut in ninth with $4.6 million (I was close at $4.2M). On a relatively small 1400+ screens, it actually achieved the second highest per screen average of the top ten.
Blogger’s Note (08/17): I am revising my Logan Lucky prediction down to $10.5 million on the eve of its debut.
The eclectic Steven Soderbergh is back in theaters with heist comedy Logan Lucky, debuting next weekend. It marks the director’s first theatrical release in four and a half years since Side Effects and first picture altogether since 2013’s Behind the Candelabra which premiered on HBO.
Lucky is headlined by many familiar faces, including Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, Daniel Craig (getting raves for the role), Seth MacFarlane, Riley Keough, Katie Holmes, Hilary Swank, Katherine Waterston, Dwight Yoakam, and Sebastian Stan. Reviews have been quite pleasing and it stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes, being frequently compared to the Ocean‘s trilogy that Soderbergh made.
Even with the solid reviews and a NASCAR tie-in (the film’s heist takes place at a race), there could be some issues with this completely breaking out. There is direct competition in the form of The Hitman’s Bodyguard with Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and it’s more likely to debut a bit higher. The mid August release date is also not one that lends itself well to openings above $20 million.
I’ll predict Lucky‘s number falls in the low to possibly mid teens, as it will hope to leg out well in future weekends (and may well do so).
Logan Lucky opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
For my The Hitman’s Bodyguard prediction, click here:
Deadpool may never appear in an Avengers film, but he costars with Nick Fury next weekend when TheHitman’sBodyguard opens. The action comedy brings together Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and looks to target the #1 spot over a rival competing for a similar audience. Patrick Hughes directs with Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek in the supporting cast.
It’s been a year and a half since the star power of Mr. Reynolds went way up with the aforementioned Deadpool. Since then, he’s appeared in supporting roles in Criminal and Life (both box office disappointments). Bodyguard, however, is his first headlining role since his winter 2016 blockbuster.
The pic could somewhat benefit from the dog days of August release and scarce competition – with one notable exception. Another action comedy with some big names – Steven Soderbergh’s LoganLucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig – debuts against it and it’s getting solid reviews. Lucky could charm some viewers away, but the net result could be slightly lower numbers for both because they’re directly competing against each other.
I’ll say Bodyguard manages to come out on top with a debut in the mid to high teens, which should be good for the top spot.
TheHitman’sBodyguard opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
August rolled in like a lamb at the box office and three new releases this weekend will try and pick things up: horror prequel Annabelle: Creation, animated sequel The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, and Brie Larson led drama The Glass Castle. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Annabelle has received significantly better reviews than its predecessor, yet I still question its ability to open above it (the original was coming hot on the heels of The Conjuring). Still, my estimate for Creation has it easily topping the charts in the low 30s.
My lower teens estimate for Nutty by Nature (yeah you know me) should be good enough for second place considering expectations for holdovers and the weak debut of current #1 The Dark Tower (more on its opening below).
As for The Glass Castle, the current theater count is 1400 which is pretty low. Even though it’s based on a popular book from 2005, the marketing campaign seems rather quiet and I’ve got it outside the top five at $4.2 million. Note that this number could be revised up (and maybe down though doubtful) as the week rolls along.
Dunkirk may just fall one spot to third with Tower dropping to fourth. The five spot could be a battle between The Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. And with that, we’ll do a top 6 projections for this particular weekend:
1. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million
2. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. The Dark Tower
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Girls Trip
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)
6. The Emoji Movie
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 50%)
Box Office Results (August 4-6)
The long-awaited adaptation of Stephen King’s The Dark Tower experienced four revisions down from my original prediction post which put it in the mid 30s (that seems like a long time ago). It soon became clear the pic wasn’t going to perform too well and that bore out with $19.1 million (my final prediction was $18.4M). That’s still good for first place, but it’s a pretty darn soft debut. Poor reviews and word-of-mouth took its toll. This was only the third weekend of the year (and first of the summer) to feature a #1 movie performing under $20M (though I’d anticipate more later in the month).
Dunkirk dropped to second after two weeks on top with $17.1 million (ahead of my predicted $15.5M) for a total of $133M.
The Emoji Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12 million (I said $11.4M) to bring its two-week tally to $49M.
Girls Trip took the four spot with $11.4 million, a bit shy of my $12.9M projection to bring the sleeper hit’s total to $85M.
The Halle Berry thriller Kidnap had a decent little opening in fifth with $10 million, easily outpacing my $6.8M projection. Its double digit debut was certainly on the higher end of expectations.
For Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit, its performance was underwhelming. Despite very positive reviews, the 1960s set racial drama placed 8th with just $7.1 million compared to my $11.6M forecast.
Some hoped for summer counter programming is attempted next weekend when The Glass Castle hits theaters. The family drama is based on a 2005 bestseller by Jeannette Walls that sold nearly 3 million copies. Castle reunites director Destin Daniel Cretton with his Short Term 12 lead Brie Larson. Costars include Woody Harrelson, Naomi Watts, and Sarah Snook.
Based on its source material’s popularity, the film could certainly exceed my rather low expectations. That said, the middle of August is a rather strange time to release a movie like this one as it would seem more suited for autumn. Larson and Harrelson have certainly been visible recently, with the former’s Oscar win in Room and costarring in Kong: Skull Island and the latter being the human headliner in War for the Planet of the Apes.
A theater count could also shed some light on its potential, but I don’t have a firm one yet (Box Office Mojo has it listed at 1400 right now, which is pretty low). I’ll say it manages between $3-$5 million in its opening weekend.
The Glass Castle opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million
For my Annabelle: Creation prediction, click here:
Annabelle: Creation isn’t the only follow-up to a 2014 picture opening next weekend as animated sequel TheNutJob2: NuttybyNature debuts. Will Arnett, Katherine Heigl, Gabriel Iglesias, and Jeff Dunham return their voices from the original as Maya Rudolph, Bobby Cannavale, Bobby Moynihan, and Jackie Chan lend their stylings as well.
The animal heist pic hopes to repeat the success of the first which was made for a reported $42 million, made $64 domestically and $128 million worldwide. That stands as the largest gross ever for distributor Open Road.
Summer 2017 has seen its share of sequelitis and there’s been a plethora of higher profile animated offerings. In my estimation that likely means a bit of a drop for part 2’s debut (the first opened to $19 million). Even though I give it a modicum of credit for subtitling itself after an awesome early 90s hip hop group (yeah you know me), I’ll say a low double digits to low teens premiere is the result.
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
For my Annabelle: Creation prediction, click here:
The demented doll made famous four summers ago is back in Annabelle: Creation, a prequel to 2014’s original, which itself was a spin-off of 2013’s breakout horror smash TheConjuring. This follow-up is from director David F. Sandberg, who made last summer’s well-received LightsOut. Stars include Stephanie Sigman, Talitha Bateman, Anthony LaPaglia, and Miranda Otto.
There is one major difference between the 2014 spin-off and its sequel. While Annabelle only obtained a 29% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, this one is surprisingly at 100% and is obviously said to be a marked improvement.
How will that translate to box office dollars? Annabelle opened to a better than anticipated $37.1 million and was front loaded in its business with an eventual $84 million domestic gross. TheConjuring2 from last summer couldn’t quite match its original’s debut (though it was awfully close at $41 million vs. $40 million).
Competition is relatively light, but even with the solid reviews, I don’t expect Creation to quite match the premiere of its predecessor. However, it may leg out better. I’ll say a high 20s to low 30s debut is most probable.
Annabelle: Creation opening weekend prediction: $31.4 million
For my The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature prediction, click here:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 