Tag: box office predictions

The Hurricane Heist Box Office Prediction

The relatively new Entertainment Studios is hoping for another sleeper hit next weekend when The Hurricane Heist hits theaters. The disaster crime flick comes from director Rob Cohen (best known for making the original The Fast and the Furious and xXx) and centers on a group of bank robbers trying to pull off a job during a Category 5 hurricane. The cast includes Toby Kebbell, Maggie Grace, Ryan Kwanten, Melissa Bolona, and Ralph Ineson.

Made for a reported $35 million, Heist‘s best hope is that it will make some cash based on its concept (star power will not be a factor). There is plenty of competition out there as Red Sparrow and Death Wish will be in their sophomore frames and The Strangers: Prey at Night opens against it looking for similar audience members.

Last summer, the studio had an unexpected hit with the shark tale 47 Meters Down. It debuted to $11.2 million with a $44 million overall domestic haul. Ironically, that film’s director is behind the camera with The Strangers sequel it’s competing with. Meters had the advantage of having a shark in it (maybe one of the bank robbers should have been a great white) so I don’t really see Heist reaching its gross.

Interestingly, I keep going back to last fall’s Geostorm as an example of a disaster pic that outperformed expectations. That critically drubbed pic managed to gross $13.7 million out of the gate. Could Hurricane somehow blow away expectations? I doubt it.

For now, I’ll say this doesn’t reach double digits, but it could make more than my current expectations.

The Hurricane Heist opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my A Wrinkle in Time prediction, click here:

A Wrinkle in Time Box Office Prediction

For my The Strangers: Prey at Night prediction, click here:

The Strangers: Prey at Night Box Office Prediction

For my Gringo prediction, click here:

Gringo Box Office Prediction

The Strangers: Prey at Night Box Office Prediction

It’s been nearly a decade since Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman were terrorized by sadistic home invaders in The Strangers. The horror flick turned into an unexpected hit early in the summer of 2008 with a $20 million opening and $52 million overall domestic gross.

With a new cast and director in tow, long gestating sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night enters theaters next weekend. Johannes Roberts, who directed his own surprise hit 47 Meters Down just last summer, is behind the camera with a cast led by Christina Hendricks and Martin Henderson.

The question here is rather simple: will audiences have enough of a memory or fondness for the original to turn up? The horror genre has certainly seen its share of impressive performers lately and it could potentially fill the market niche.

That said, I’m skeptical. I’ll estimate that Prey earns less than half of what its predecessor accomplished some 10 years ago.

The Strangers: Prey at Night opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million

For my A Wrinkle in Time prediction, click here:

A Wrinkle in Time Box Office Prediction

For my The Hurricane Heist prediction, click here:

The Hurricane Heist Box Office Prediction

For my Gringo prediction, click here:

Gringo Box Office Prediction

A Wrinkle in Time Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (03/07): I am revising my estimate from $42.8 million to $37.8 million, meaning I have it debuting at #2

What film could knock Disney’s Black Panther off its perch atop the box office charts after its momentous performance? Well, it should be another Disney property as A Wrinkle in Time debuts next Friday. Based on the famed and acclaimed 1962 novel from Madeleine L’Engle, the sci-fi fantasy comes from Selma director Ana DuVernay and marks the biggest budgeted feature ever (a reported $103 million) from an African-American female director. The cast includes Oprah Winfrey, Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, Chris Pine, Gugu-Mbatha Raw, Zach Galifianakis, Michael Pena, and Storm Reid.

The Disney marketing machine is certainly a formidable one and familiarity with the source material and high-profile actors should serve as a benefit. One potential hindrance: while reviews are embargoed until March 7, initial word-of-mouth from screenings has been mixed.

On the low end, Wrinkle could see a debut in the mid 30s. However, I feel it will manage to climb higher with low 40s gross that could certainly reach as a high as $50 million. I don’t see it hitting the high 60s grosses that Disney’s live-action adaptations like Maleficent or Cinderella managed. That should be enough to allow the Mouse Factory to hold the 1-2 position next weekend with this and Panther.

A Wrinkle in Time opening weekend prediction: $37.8 million

For my The Strangers: Prey at Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/28/the-strangers-prey-at-night/

For my The Hurricane Heist prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/01/the-hurricane-heist-box-office-prediction/

For my Gringo prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/01/gringo-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: March 2-4

Marvel’s Black Panther should continue its momentous run atop the box office as two newbies compete for action fan attention. They are Red Sparrow with Jennifer Lawrence and Death Wish starring Bruce Willis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/21/red-sparrow-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/21/death-wish-box-office-prediction/

Not long ago, I might have estimated Red Sparrow would easily top Death Wish in their head to head. However, I’m beginning to believe it might be a fairly close race for the runner-up spot to Panther. That said, I’m still giving Katniss the edge over John McClane… or Joy over Hudson Hawk if you want to go less obvious.

Holdovers Game Night and Peter Rabbit should round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $65.4 million

2. Red Sparrow

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million

3. Death Wish

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

4. Game Night

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

Box Office Results (February 23-25)

Black Panther continued to confound prognosticators with its amazing run. In its sophomore frame, the Marvel phenomenon grossed $111.6 million, surging past my $101.8 million forecast. Incredibly, that gives it the #2 largest second weekend of all time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens. 

Game Night debuted in second with a solid $17 million, capitalizing on positive reviews and a dearth of comedies to choose from. It opened in line with my $16.3 million estimate.

Peter Rabbit was third with $12.7 million in weekend #3 (I said $11.6 million) for $71 million overall.

Annihilation with Natalie Portman, despite glowing critical reception, struggled in fourth with $11 million – just edging my $10.4 million projection. While critics are digging it, audiences only gave it a C Cinemascore grade. Look for it to fade quickly.

Fifty Shades Freed rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.9 million) to bring its tally to $89 million.

Finally, the YA romantic drama Every Day opened meekly in ninth with $3 million, right in line with my $2.9 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Death Wish Box Office Prediction

Bruce Willis is back on the big screen next weekend with Death Wish, a remake of the 1974 action pic that starred Charles Bronson. Coming from director Eli Roth, the pic costars Elisabeth Shue, Vincent D’Onofrio, Dean Norris, Kimberly Elise, and Mike Epps.

Willis will be in full vigilante mode and those familiar with Death Wish know it spawned numerous sequels of highly questionable quality. The star of the proceedings has been a bit of a stranger to multiplexes in recent years as many of his films have gone the direct to VOD route.

Competition is certainly there with Jennifer Lawrence’s Red Sparrow debuting against it and also making a play for R rated genre fans. That said, if Den of Thieves could pull in $15.2 million in January, I believe this could put up fairly similar numbers and perhaps a bit higher.

Death Wish opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million

For my Red Sparrow prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/21/red-sparrow-box-office-prediction/

Red Sparrow Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (02/28): I am revising my Red Sparrow down from $19.5 million to $17.5 million

Red Sparrow, out next Friday, reunites Jennifer Lawrence with her director for the last three Hunger Games installments Francis Lawrence. The spy thriller casts the star as a Russian spy with a supporting cast that includes Joel Edgerton, Matthew Schoenaerts, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons, and Mary-Louise Parker.

The 20th Century Fox release was originally scheduled for November of last year before the March push back. Reviews have been a bit mixed as it stands at 63% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.

Lawrence has certainly had her share of massive hits. She’s also had some under performers as of late, including Passengers and mother! Competition is a factor here. Black Panther should still be ruling the charts and Death Wish with Bruce Willis opens directly against it and will try to capture the attention of actions fans.

I could see Red Sparrow performing similarly to another recent female led spy flick, last summer’s Atomic Blonde with Charlize Theron. It opened to $18.2 million. I’ll put this just a touch higher due to Lawrence’s drawing power, but still under $20 million.

Red Sparrow opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million

For my Death Wish prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/21/death-wish-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 23-25

The domination of Black Panther should continue at the box office in full force this weekend, but we do have some new titles debuting. The Jason Bateman/Rachel McAdams comedy Game Night and Natalie Portman led sci-fi thriller Annihilation hit screens and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/14/game-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/14/annihilation-box-office-prediction/

There’s also Every Day, a romantic drama based on a YA novel that’s rolling out on roughly 1650 screens. It seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and I didn’t do an individual post on it. I’ll estimate it only generates $2.9 million in sales.

As for the more high-profile newbies, Game Night appears poised for a second place showing. Annihilation is more of a question mark in my mind. Depending on the drop that Peter Rabbit experiences in its third weekend, it could be third or fourth with Fifty Shades Freed rounding out the top five.

Black Panther will easily rule the charts after its historic and record breaking premiere (more on that below). The Marvel phenomenon could top $100 million in its sophomore frame and that would put it fourth all time as far as #2 weekends go. That said, it pretty much blew away all expectations over the long weekend so maybe it gets to over $100 million.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $101.8 million

2. Game Night

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Annihilation

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

5. Fifty Shades Freed

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (February 16-19) 

It was an absolutely incredible debut for Black Panther as the critically acclaimed comic book adaptation smashed the February record and then some. Panther took in $242.1 million over the President’s Day frame, blasting past my $193.8 million estimate. Deadpool was the previous February high at $152 million. Its Friday to Sunday haul of $202 million gave it the fifth largest domestic opening of all time – right behind MCU counterpart The Avengers. Its Monday gross of $40.1 million stands as the highest Monday gross of all time – just edging out Star Wars: The Force Awakens by a few thousand bucks. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, look for Panther to continue its run for the ages into the next several weekends.

Peter Rabbit stayed put in the runner-up position with $23.3 million, hopping a touch over my $20.9 million prediction for a two-week tally of $54 million.

Fifty Shades Freed dropped to third with $19.4 million, a bit ahead of my $17 million estimate. In its two weeks of release, the threequel has taken in $78 million.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle took the four spot with $10 million, right in line with my $9.6 million projection for $379 million overall.

The 15:17 to Paris rounded out the top five with $8.9 million (I said $7.9 million) for $26 million thus far.

Stop-motion animated feature Early Man, despite mostly solid reviews, didn’t connect with family audiences. The pic opened in seventh with only $4.2 million compared to my prediction of $5.7 million.

Lastly, the Biblical drama Samson made no impact with moviegoers with just $2.2 million, not even matching my $3.1 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Game Night Box Office Prediction

Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams are a couple whose night of innocent fun goes horribly wrong in the comedy Game Night, opening next Friday. From John Francis Daley and Jonathan Goldstein, the guys behind Horrible Bosses and the 2015 Vacation reboot, the pic costars Kyle Chandler, Billy Magnussen, Michael C. Hall, Jesse Plemons, and Jeffrey Wright.

Night could manage to appeal to moviegoers looking for a straight comedy in the midst of other genre fare in the marketplace. Black Panther will certainly being tearing up competition in weekend #2 and Annihilation is also out there for sci-fi fans. As far as movies reaching for the funny bone, this stands alone.

I could envision Game Night performing similarly to recent Bateman outings like Horrible Bosses 2 and Office Christmas Party. That would put it in the mid teens range for its start.

Game Night opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million

For my Annihilation prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/14/annihilation-box-office-prediction/

 

Annihilation Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note part 2 (02/20): I am once again revising my estimate. Now to $10.4 million

Blogger’s Note (02/15): I’m losing faith a bit for Annihilation debut. Revising down from $14.4 million to $12.4 million

Three years ago, screenwriter Alex Garland made his directorial debut with the acclaimed sci-fi pic Ex Machina, which garnered an Original Screenplay Oscar nomination and won for Visual Effects. Next Friday, his sophomore effort Annihilation debuts. Based on the novel from James VanderMeer, Natalie Portman stars in the $55 million production combining sci-fi, horror, and action elements. Costars include Jennifer Jason Leigh, Gina Rodriguez, Tessa Thompson, and Machina lead Oscar Isaac.

While Annihilation is hitting theaters in the U.S., Canada, and China, it’s slated to roll out on Netflix in other international markets. Early critical buzz is pretty solid so far, but it could struggle to break out stateside. Audiences are likely to still be flocking to Black Panther, which will be in its second weekend of release (and doing its own annihilation of competitors).

Fans of Machina, the genre, and Portman may be enough to get this between $10 million on the low end and $15 million on the high end. I’ll project roughly in the lower end of that range.

Annihilation opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million

For my Game Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/14/game-night-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 16-19

Blogger’s Note Part II (02/15): And my Panther estimate continues to go up. Now at $193.8 million

Blogger’s Note (02/15): On the eve of their premieres, I’m making the following adjustments: revising Panther up from $168.8M to $178.8M; Early Man from $5.4M to $5.7M; and Samson from $2.2M to $3.1M.

It should be a commanding weekend for Marvel’s Black Panther as it opens over President’s Day in what could be a record-breaking February debut. We also have the stop-motion animated feature Early Man premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/06/black-panther-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/08/early-man-box-office-prediction/

Panther sprints into theaters with red hot word-of-mouth and sizzling reviews. The film appears to have entered into true event picture territory and it has sky high expectations. In order to blast through the current February record, it would need to eclipse Deadpool from two years ago, which also opened over the four-day POTUS frame. That movie earned $132 million from Friday to Sunday and $152 million when including Monday. My Panther estimate has Chadwick Boseman and company exceeding that.

I’m not expecting much from Early Man, which will experience severe competition from the second weekend of Peter Rabbit (likely to remain #2) and all the kiddos flocking to Panther. My $5.7 million forecast for it puts it outside the top 5.

I didn’t do an individual prediction post for Samson, a Biblical drama from Pure Flix that’s slated to open on around 1200 screens. I’ve got it pegged at just $3.1 million.

As mentioned, I see Rabbit retaining the number two spot while Fifty Shades Freed seems likely to drop to third. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The 15:17 to Paris should round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the four-day holiday weekend:

1. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $193.8 million

2. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Fifty Shades Freed

Predicted Gross: $17 million

4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. The 15:17 to Paris 

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (February 9-11)

Fifty Shades Freed closed out the franchise this weekend with the lowest debut of the three features, as anticipated. The final pairing of Anastasia and Christian took in $38.5 million, right on target with my $38.4 million estimate. The good news for Fifty? Its total this weekend including international sales brought the series overall to a billion dollars worldwide.

Peter Rabbit hopped into the second position with a strong $25 million, eclipsing my $18.7 million prediction. The family friendly tale (or tail if you will) looks to continue its impressive grosses in its sophomore frame where it should experience a smallish dip.

Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris opened in third to a middling $12.5 million, just below my $13.1 million projection. Mostly negative reviews likely didn’t help.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was fourth with $10 million (I was lower at $8.6 million) for a grand tally of $365 million.

The Greatest Showman rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was in line with my $6.3 million forecast) for $146 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…