Director Drew Goddard follows up his cult hit The Cabin in the Woods next weekend with the thriller Bad Times at the El Royale. Set at a novelty hotel in the late 1960s that occupies space in California and Nevada, the cast includes Jeff Bridges, Cynthia Erivo, Dakota Johnson, Jon Hamm, Nick Offerman, Cailee Spaeny, and Chris Hemsworth.
Early reviews for Royale have been mostly positive and it currently occupies a 77% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Box office estimates I’ve seen have a wide range from low double digits to high ones.
While this is a project that cinephiles are excited for, I question whether this can break out with a mainstream audience. For starters, there’s competition in the form of the second weekend of Venom and A Star Is Born and the debut of First Man. Trailers and TV spots are a little murky as to what this is actually about. While there’s plenty of famous faces in the cast, I’m not sure any of them will help much in filling seats (even Thor himself).
Taking all that into account, I believe El Royale will premiere on the low-end of expectations and may even struggle to reach double digits.
Bad Times at the El Royale opening weekend prediction: $8 million
R.L. Stine’s bestselling series of books gets its sequel next weekend as Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween scares its way into multiplexes. This is the follow-up to the 2015 original that managed a $23.6 million opening and $80 million overall gross. Ari Sandel takes over directorial duties with a cast including Wendi McLendon-Covey, Madison Iseman, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Ken Jeong, and Chris Parnell. Jack Black does reprise his role as Stine, though it’s unclear whether it’s more of a cameo this time around.
The release date close to the holiday it’s named after should help and there’s also little in the way of direct family competition as The House with a Clock in Its Walls (starring Black) is winding down. Venom will be in its second weekend of release, however.
I’ll predict this doesn’t quite manage to match the earnings of its predecessor and it may come in with about 25% less. That would give the second helping of Goosebumps a debut in the high teens.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween opening weekend prediction: $17.3 million
With awards buzz lifting its potential box office prospects, Damien Chazelle’s FirstMan debuts next weekend. Ryan Gosling headlines as Neil Armstrong in the story of the journey that led him to walk on the moon. Costars include Claire Foy (in a role garnering Oscar chatter), Jason Clarke, Kyle Chandler, Corey Stoll, Ciarán Hinds, Christopher Abbott, Patrick Fugit, and Lukas Haas.
Since premiering at the Venice Film Festival, FirstMan has received positive word of mouth with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 88%. Like Chazelle’s last two pictures (Whiplash and LaLaLand), a Best Picture nomination is expected. Older audiences should turn out (and Gosling fans), but it could be a film that plays well for weeks as opposed to a huge opening.
October has been kind to space flicks, most notably Gravity and TheMartian. They both launched to over $50 million out of the gate. FirstMan is not expected to achieve those numbers. Competition is serious with the second weekends of Venom and AStarIsBorn in particular.
I’ll say this manages a low to likely mid 20s start with solid grosses continuing beyond.
FirstMan opening weekend prediction: $23.5 million
For my Goosebumps 2, Haunted Halloween prediction, click here:
The October box office gets underway this weekend with a strong likelihood that the month’s record will be broken as the comic book adaptation Venom and Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga Oscar hopeful and musical drama A Star Is Born open. You can peruse my individual detailed prediction posts on them here:
Both are expected to post impressive debuts. The current October record holder is from five years ago when Gravity made $55.7 million out of the gate. Venom is tracking to open between $60-$70 million. I believe it will match expectations and premiere on the lower end of that range, taking the all-time monthly debut with it.
While Venom could always fail to meet projections, I believe the real wild card here is A Star Is Born. Ever since it screened on the film festival circuit, praise and awards buzz has been loud for Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut and third remake of a tale that began in the 1930s. My initial estimate last week was $37.6 million and it has now risen to $48.6 million. It’s not out of the question that the projection could continue to rise during the week.
The two newcomers will easily take the top spots. As for holdovers, Smallfoot seems destined to experience a smaller drop than current champ Night School. I expect them to place 3rd and 4th, respectively, with The House with a Clock in Its Walls rounding out the top five.
And with that, my top five take on the big record-breaking weekend ahead:
1. Venom
Predicted Gross: $62.5 million
2. A Star Is Born
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
3. Smallfoot
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. Night School
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. The House with a Clock in Its Walls
Predicted Gross: $7 million
Box Office Results (September 28-30)
As expected, the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy NightSchool opened in first place with $27.2 million, a bit under my $31.6 million prediction. While not reaching the heights of some other Hart laughers, it’s still a solid start. I do expect a fairly large drop this weekend.
Warner Bros animated Smallfoot premiered in line with expectations at $23 million. My prediction? $23 million! I foresee a second weekend drop around 35-40 percent.
TheHousewithaClockinItsWalls dropped to third with $12.6 million, falling further than my second weekend estimate of $15.3 million. It’s made $44 million thus far.
ASimpleFavor was fourth with $6.5 million (I said $7 million) for a three-week tally of $43 million.
TheNun rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $5.5 million) for an overall gross of $109 million.
Halloween themed horror pic HellFest yielded unimpressive results in sixth place with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.6 million projection.
Finally, the Pure Flix version of LittleWomen was a total bust this weekend with just $705,000 for 16th place. I was more generous at $1.1 million.
Riding a wave of serious Oscar buzz, A Star Is Born is unveiled in theaters next weekend. The musical romance is the third remake of the 1937 film (the last was from 1976 with Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson). It marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper, who also stars as an alcoholic country singer who discovers and falls for a budding superstar (Lady Gaga). Costars include Sam Elliot, Dave Chappelle, Andrew Dice Clay, and Rafi Gavron.
After premiering at the Venice Film Festival weeks ago, Star immediately garnered awards attention. With great reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes), this is seen as a serious contender in a number of races including Best Picture. The performances of Cooper and Gaga have been met with raves. While she’s one of music’s biggest names, Gaga’s filmography has been limited to FX’s “American Horror Story” and Machete Kills. She seems destined to pick up an Oscar nod.
The likelihood is that Star will ride its awards chatter to solid grosses throughout the fall. How high it opens is more of a mystery. While it will almost certainly place second to Venom, the range is significant. I believe a gross of over $40 million is achievable.
A Star Is Born opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million
Sony Pictures hopes to kick off a franchise and set an October opening record next weekend when Venom debuts. The picture’s namesake is an anti-hero spawned from the Spider-Man comics. Moviegoers first saw him in the form of Topher Grace in Spider–Man3. That rendering of the character didn’t sit too well with comic book aficionados.
The studio hopes this version changes that. Ruben Fleischer, best known for Zombieland, serves behind the camera. Playing Venom and his alter ego Eddie Brock is Tom Hardy. Costars include Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed, Scott Haze, Reid Scott, Jenny Slate, and Woody Harrelson.
Sequels and spin-offs are hoped for and the marketing campaign has been pervasive. The reaction to trailers has been mostly positive, but word is that reviews won’t be published until the day before release. That’s not always a good sign. Similar buzz greeted SuicideSquad (among others) and it managed to meet expectations and gross $133 million in its first weekend. That stands as the largest August debut ever.
The correlation is that Venom could do the same in October, but estimates aren’t as high here. This is expected to gross between $60-$70 million. Even if it reached the low-end of that spectrum, this would top October record holder Gravity at $55 million. I’ll note that Halloween (out October 19) also stands a solid shot at exceeding that.
My feeling is this will meet projections, but on the lower end of the spectrum. How it performs in subsequent weekends will be dependent on buzz and that may be the biggest indicator on whether Sony gets its longed for cinematic universe.
**Blogger’s Note (09/27/18): My estimates for Night School and Smallfoot has risen slightly to $31.6 million and $23 million respectively.
It could be a battle for the #1 spot at the box office as September closes with the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School and the animated Warner Bros family pic Smallfoot debuting. We also have the Halloween theme park set horror flick Hell Fest opening. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on the trio here:
Before we get to the heavy hitters, the Pure Flix version of Little Women is also out Friday on a low 600 or so screens. I didn’t do a separate post for it and I’m not expecting much out of it. I’ll put its premiere at just $1.1 million.
Kevin Hart has shown his potency at the box office repeatedly with several openings north of $30 million. I don’t have Night School reaching quite that high, but my mid to late 20s estimate is enough to project it will top the lower to mid 20s gross of Smallfoot.
Competition for Smallfoot will include the second weekend of The House with a Clock in Its Walls, which performed on the higher end of expectations out of the gate. It should drop to third place with A Simple Favor in fourth.
The five-spot is where I expect Hell Fest to compete. Horror movies always have the capacity to outdo expectations, but I’m not seeing much fanfare for this one. My mid single digits prediction could put it in range with the fourth weekend of The Nun.
And with that, a top 6 take on the weekend ahead:
1. Night School
Predicted Gross: $31.6 million
2. Smallfoot
Predicted Gross: $23 million
3. The House with a Clock in Its Walls
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
4. A Simple Favor
Predicted Gross: $7 million
5. Hell Fest
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
6. The Nun
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (September 21-23)
As anticipated, The House with a Clock in Its Walls topped the charts with a solid $26.6 million (ahead of my $23.2 million take). The Jack Black family pic, as mentioned, hit the better end of estimates. Considering its reported $40 million budget, this should be a nice hit for Universal.
A Simple Favor elevated from third place to second place in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection. Its total stands at $32 million.
The Nun crossed the $100 million mark placing third with $9.9 million (ahead of my $8.4 million estimate). Only Annabelle of the Conjuring Cinematic Universe didn’t manage to join the century club and The Nun appears poised to be the franchise’s second largest earner behind The Conjuring.
The Predator dipped mightily in weekend #2 to fourth place with a 63% fall and $9.1 million (I said $10 million) for $40 million overall.
Crazy Rich Asians was fifth with $6.3 million (I went with $5.9 million) for $159 million overall.
The newcomers besides Clock all failed to connect with moviegoers. Michael Moore’s doc (despite significant publicity) was a flop. While Fahrenheit 9/11 took in nearly $24 million in its first weekend in the summer of 2004, 11/9 managed a paltry $3 million for 8th place. I predicted $5 million.
Life Itself couldn’t overcome overwhelmingly negative reviews and the drama from “This Is Us” creator Dan Fogelman was 11th with a putrid $2.1 million. I was a bit higher at $3.8 million.
I didn’t make a prediction on the blog for Assassination Nation (though I said $1.2 million on Fantasy Movie League), but it was another bad opening in 15th place with $1 million.
Set in a Halloween theme park, the horror flick HellFest will attempt to bring in genre fans next weekend. It’s directed by Gregory Plotkin, who’s known more for his work as an editor (GetOut, HappyDeathDay). He did make ParanormalActivity: TheGhostDimension. The cast includes Amy Forsyth, Bex Taylor-Klaus, Reign Edwards, and Tony Todd (otherwise known as Candyman from that franchise).
HellFest debuts in the middle of considerably more high-profile fright fests TheNun and Halloween. Opening on approximately 2200 screens, awareness seems rather low. That said, horror fans can sometimes cause larger than expected grosses.
I’m not seeing it here. I’ll project a mid to maybe high single digits premiere.
The Warner Animation Group sets the Legos aside momentarily when Smallfoot debuts next weekend. The 3D computer animated comedic musical (a twist on the Bigfoot story) comes from director Karey Kirkpatrick. He made the well-received Over the Hedge over a decade ago and the not so well-received live-action Eddie Murphy pic Imagine That in 2009. Channing Tatum, James Corden, LeBron James, Zendaya, Common, Danny DeVito, and Gina Rodriguez are among the voices heard here.
As mentioned, the current animation department at Warner Bros has mostly been giving us Lego titles as of late. One exception was 2016’s Storks. It also opened in September and made $21.3 million for its start. That is likely a far better comparison that anything involving those famous blocks.
A low 20s to mid gross should put this in second place next weekend behind the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School.
**Blogger’s Update (09/27/18): My estimate has risen to $27.6 million to $31.6 million
One of the most dependable comedic actors at the box office teams with one of the hottest newer names when Night School opens next weekend. Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish headline the pic about a group trying to pass their GED exam. Malcolm D. Lee (who just directed Haddish in her breakout Girls Trip) is behind the camera. The supporting cast includes Rob Riggle, Mary Lynn Rajskub, Taran Killam, Romany Malco, and Keith David.
Hart has been a model of consistency in recent years when it comes to high earners. In addition to just coming off the massive blockbuster Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle, he’s had a handful of $30 million plus openers including Think Like a Man, both Ride Along features, Get Hard, and Central Intelligence. The Think Like a Man sequel almost reached $30 million while About Last Night made $25.6 million for its start. The low-end of the spectrum is The Wedding Ringer with $20.6 million. As for Lee and Haddish’s Trip, it took in $31.2 million.
The collaboration of these talents should yield pleasing results and the likely #1 spot over its made competitor – the animated Smallfoot. I’m a little skeptical this reaches $30 million, though it certainly could. A gross in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Night School opening weekend prediction: $31.6 million
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