Embarking on his Italian honeymoon alone after being left at the altar, Kevin James stars in Solo Mio on February 6th. The dramedy is co-directed by siblings Chuck and Dan Kinnane with a supporting cast including Alyson Hannigan, Nicole Grimaudio, Kim Coates, and Jonathan Roumie.
An Angel Studios release, this is James’s first headlining theatrical vehicle in over a decade (think Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2). Most everything in between has gone the streaming route. Can Solo drive any traffic to theaters? With a reported budget of only $4 million, profitability should be achieved.
I’ll say mid single digits is where it lands though it could manage only lower single digits in a worst case scenario.
Solo Mio opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
For my The Strangers – Chapter 3 prediction, click here:
The Strangers – Chapter 3 is (naturally) the fifth feature in the nearly two-decade old horror franchise and it opens February 6th. To add more context, it is the culmination of this specific trilogy in the series from director Renny Harlin. Chapter 1 arrived in 2024 with Chapter 2 dropping only four months ago. Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso, Ema Horvath, and Richard Brake star.
In 2008, the first Strangers (as in very first) was a sleeper hit that made $20 million in weekend #1 and $52 million domestically. None of the three follow-ups have matched it. 2018’s The Strangers: Prey at Night barely topped $10 million out of the gate with just under $25 million stateside. Chapter 1 managed nearly $12 million and an overall tally of $35 million. Chapter 2 easily saw franchise lows with a $5.8 million start and $15 million total.
Diminishing returns could certainly continue. I see no valid argument why this would top its predecessor and I’ll put it about a million below.
The Strangers – Chapter 3 opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million
Three new features could fill the top 3 slots to close out January and begin February. We have Sam Raimi’s horror thriller Send Help, video game based sci-fi pic Iron Lung, and Jason Statham’s latest action effort Shelter all seeking viewers. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
All of them have the potential to exceed my expectations, but I’m giving Send Help (with mostly impressive reviews) the edge with a gross in the low teens.
As for Lung and Shelter, I have them in a close race for the #2 position and both falling under $10 million. I’ll note that Lung‘s gamer fans and Statham’s previous grosses could suggest I’m underestimating.
Some might say for the same for Melania. Brett Ratner’s documentary about the First Lady is a question mark. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll say $4.2 million and that would leave it outside the top 5.
After an unimpressive start, I look for Mercy to lose over half its audience with Avatar: Fire and Ash perhaps placing and Mercy in fifth. Here’s how I see it all shaking out:
1. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
2. Iron Lung
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. Shelter
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Mercy
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
6. Melania
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (January 23-25)
Bad weather, Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, and Broncos contributed to a dismal weekend as Mercy with Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson did manage to become 2026’s first feature to hit #1. The poorly reviewed AI courtroom saga made $10.8 million compared to my $9.3 million prediction. Expect it to fade quickly.
Avatar: Fire and Ash, after five weeks in first, dropped to second with $6.4 million. I’ll note now that all holdovers experienced larger drops than I assumed. I had the James Cameron threequel at $9.8 million. The total is $377 million
Zootopia 2 was third with $5.3 million, under my $6.8 million call. The Disney sequel stands at $401 million after nine weeks.
The Housemaid was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $6.2 million) for a six-week tally of $115 million.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple plummeted a massive 73% in its sophomore outing with $3.4 million. I was more generous at $5.5 million. At only $20 million in two weeks, it’s a dud despite impressive critical reaction.
Finally, Return to Silent Hill (another video game based offering) debuted in seventh with $3.2 million. It actually managed to exceed my $2.2 million projection.
Black Bear Pictures looks for action fans seek Shelter when it opens on January 30th. Jason Statham headlines with Ric Roman Waugh (putting out his second 2026 release following Greenland 2: Migration) directing. Costars include Bodhi Rae Breathnach, Bill Nighy, Naomi Ackie, and Daniel Mays.
With its leading man playing (you guessed it) a former assassin, Shelter would love to match the beginning grosses of his predecessors The Beekeeper ($16 million) and A Working Man ($15 million). That could be a tall order as competitors Send Help and Iron Lung could siphon away potential viewers.
This could certainly hit $10 million, but I’m going more mid to high single digits.
Based on a popular 2022 video game, sci-fi horror offering Iron Lung makes its way to theaters on January 30th. YouTuber Mark Fischbach (known best as Markiplier) makes his directorial debut and stars. The supporting cast includes Caroline Rose Kaplan, Seán McLoughlin, David Szymanski, and Troy Baker.
In a recent interview, the Lung maker confirmed that his film contains the most fake blood of any genre tale in history. The question is whether it will make real money? That’s a tricky one. Under a best case scenario, it could surpass the anticipated high single digits forecast and challenge Sam Raimi’s Send Help for the #1 spot.
I suspect Help could divert some attention away and that this will generally kick off in line with expectations.
Sam Raimi is back in horror mode when Send Help debuts January 30th. Rachel McAdams is stranded on an island with her sexist boss Dylan O’Brien in the 20th Century Studios release. Dennis Haysbert, Xavier Samuel, and Chris Pang costar.
For most of the 21st century, Raimi has been in blockbuster mode via the Spider-Man franchise and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The Evil Dead maker returns to the genre that initially brought him acclaim for the first time since Drag Me to Hell. It could possibly achieve the $15 million opening that Hell kicked off with in 2009. That might be a best case scenario.
I suspect it may come in a bit lower between $12-14 million and in these slow multiplex January days, that should be enough to place it #1.
Send Help opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million
Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson headline the sci-fi thriller Mercy this weekend and it looks to be the only newbie with a shot at the top spot or top 5 for that matter. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With word-of-mouth lacking, Mercy has the air of a streaming title that is going the multiplex route. A debut over $10 million is certainly possible, but I’m going a tad lower. My estimate would put it just behind Avatar: Fire and Ash which I’m giving an unexpected sixth week atop the rankings.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple was a major disappointment out of the gate (more on that below). Despite an encouraging A- Cinemascore grade (the best of the four features in the long running franchise), it should experience the heftiest decline in the upper half of the charts. That likely means a slide from 2nd to 5th. Holdovers Zootopia 2 and The Housemaid should remain sturdier.
Return to Silent Hill is another new offering. I didn’t do an individual post for the horror threequel and I have it at $2.2 million, putting it well outside the top 5.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
2. Mercy
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
3. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (January 16-18)
In an unanticipated twist, Avatar: Fire and Ash managed to place 1st for a fifth week over MLK weekend with $14.4 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s a tad below my $15.5 million forecast as the third pic in the series is up to $364 million.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple severely underperformed with $12.5 million for runner-up status. Even with the MLK Monday factored in ($14.4 million over four days), that’s less than half of what predecessor 28 Years Later brought in last summer and easily under my $20.1 million take.
Zootopia 2 was third in weekend #8 with $9.1 million, in line with my $8.6 million call. The Disney sequel stands at $390 million with $400 million around the corner.
The Housemaid was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.9 million) as the blockbuster thriller crossed nine digits with $107 million after five weeks.
Marty Supreme rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. With an additional $5.4 million in its coffers, the total stands at $79 million and it has become A24’s largest domestic earner.
Finally, Primate was sixth with $5 million, not matching my $6 million projection. The rabid chimp saga has made $19 million after two weeks.
Originally slated for release last summer, Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson headline Amazon MGM’s sci-fi action pic Mercy on January 23rd. Directed by Timur Bekmambetov (Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, the recently lambasted Ice Cube version of War of the Worlds), costars include Annabelle Wallis, Kylie Rogers, Kali Reis, and Chris Sullivan.
Despite their combined participation in mega-franchises Guardians of the Galaxy, Jurassic World, Mission: Impossible, and Dune, this pairing of Pratt and Ferguson seems like it just as easily could have premiered on a streaming service. Pratt has gone that route recently with The Tomorrow War and The Electric State. Buzz is far from electric. Forecasts have this in the low double digits and I’m not confident it even gets there.
Avatar: Fire and Ash should finally relinquish its box office crown after four weeks to 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic franchise here:
Bone follows 28 Years Later by only seven months. While I don’t envision it matching the $30 million start achieved by its predecessor, my $20M projection has it leading the way over Avatar which should see a lower to mid teens gross.
Holdovers should populate the rest of the top 5. I will note the possibility that anime flick All You Need is Kill could make the cut in its domestic debut, but I’m not doing an estimate since I haven’t seen a theater count. If that dynamic changes and I feel it could make the high five, I’ll update. Same goes for the expansion of freshly minted Golden Globe Best Drama recipient Hamnet.
This is MLK weekend though I’m only predicting the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the frame. You usually see smaller drops for leftover titles during this time period. Primate seems poised for the biggest dip. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
Predicted Gross: $20.1 million
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Primate
Predicted Gross: $6 million
Box Office Results (January 9-11)
Avatar: Fire and Ash made it a four-peat with $21.5 million, on track with my $20 million call. That brings the third offering in James Cameron’s epic series to $342 million thus far.
Primate scored the highest debut of the newcomers (something I incorrectly forecasted) with $11.1 million in second. The monkey gone wild tale topped my $9.7 million prediction for a respectable start.
The Housemaid continued its meager drops in third with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8.2 million guesstimate. The buzzy thriller is nearing nine digits with $93 million in the bank.
Zootopia 2 was fourth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) to bring its gargantuan haul to $378 million with $400 million domestic easily in its sights.
Gerard Butler action sequel Greenland 2: Migration struggled in fifth with $8.4 million compared to my $12.9 million prediction. I wrongly thought it would place second.
Finally, Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On? didn’t stand out with audiences. In its wide expansion, it was 11th with $2.3 million. I went a tad higher at $2.6 million and it’s made $3.4 million total when factoring its limited release.
Arriving just seven months after its post-apocalyptic predecessor from Danny Boyle, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple opens in multiplexes on January 16th. Shot back-to-back with 28 Years Later, Temple sees Nia DaCosta taking over directorial duties in this fourth overall franchise entry that began with 28 Days Later in 2003. Alex Garland scripts with Ralph Fiennes, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Williams, and Erin Kellyman starring.
In June of 2025, Years debuted in line with expectations at $30 million and was pretty front loaded with a $70 million eventual domestic gross. It received a B Cinemascore grade (not bad at all for a horror pic). Even with the solid critical reaction and decent audience response, Temple is unlikely to match the earnings of the third series feature.
High teens is certainly feasible though I’ll say it manages to get just past $20 million. Note that this is a Friday to Sunday projection and not factoring in Monday’s MLK federal holiday.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple opening weekend prediction: $20.1 million
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