In my previous box office prediction for Marty Supreme (opening wide on Christmas), I wrote that it is likely to play better on the coasts than everywhere in the middle. The opposite could be true for Song Sung Blue which also opens on the holiday. The musical drama from Craig Brewer stars Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson in the true life tale of Neil Diamond tribute act Lightning & Thunder. Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi are among the supporting players.
Reviews are mixed with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That said, plenty of the write-ups indicate this could be a crowdpleaser. Blue seeks to bring in an older audience during the Yuletide season. That’s likely to happen, but it may play over several weeks and not immediately while word-of-mouth builds.
I’ll project it manages just shy of $10 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend with low teens when counting Christmas.
Song Sung Blue opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
With plenty of Oscar buzz and a leading man who’s been on a hot streak, Marty Supreme is looking to set the table for a strong start this Christmas. Director Josh Safdie goes solo like his brother did earlier this year with The Smashing Machine, but this time the awards buzz stayed intact. Timothée Chalamet headlines the 1950s set sports dramedy. The eclectic supporting cast includes Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary, Tyler Okonma, Abel Ferrera, and Fran Drescher.
Supreme is expected to make a splash in limited release the weekend before its December 25th wide bow. It certainly could and most likely will play better on the coasts. However, strong reviews (94 RT, 91 Metacritic) and Chalamet’s presence might propel the assumed Best Picture nominee to solid stateside earnings.
I would expect this to reach low double digits to possibly low teens over the traditional Friday to Sunday (Dec 26-28) with high teens or even $20 million when counting the holiday.
Marty Supreme opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $19.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Sony is banking on Anaconda mixing up a lot of box office dough when it debuts on Christmas Day. The high-concept comedy from Tom Gormican finds Paul Rudd and Jack Black, fresh off A Minecraft Movie, attempting to remake the 1997 cult favorite feature of the same name that starred Jennifer Lopez, Ice Cube, Owen Wilson, and Jon Voight. The supporting players in this meta experience include Steve Zahn, Thandiwe Newton, Daniela Melchior, and Selton Mello.
Younger viewers may not be overly familiar with the source material. However, the PG-13 rating and comedic heavyweights should help push this to a decent start. With Christmas on a Thursday (that hasn’t occurred since 2014), crunching the numbers is a little tricky. A four-day rollout near $30 million is doable though I’ll go with low to mid teens for the traditional weekend and low 20s when counting the holiday.
Anaconda opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Hollywood is hoping for merry pre-Christmas tidings with Avatar: Fire and Ash in position to rule the charts. There’s other potential new gifts for multiplexes in the form of psychological thriller The Housemaid and the double animated offerings of biblical tale David and fourquel The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. You can locate my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
The first two Avatar features from newly minted billionaire James Cameron each grossed $2B+ worldwide. Fire looks to keep up pace. I have it under $100 million for its first stateside weekend but with about $36million less than 2022 predecessor The Way of Water.
Placement for slots 2-4 could be unpredictable. Based on a buzzy bestseller, The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried has breakout potential and should serve as shrewd counter programming from blue creatures and family fare. I have it in second.
Faith-based crowds could cause David to top SpongeBob. I have the former in the low 20s with the latter in mid to higher teens. Both look to debut decently and hold impressively over Christmas. Current champ Zootopia 2 should follow in an animated bottom heavy top 5.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $98 million
2. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
3. David
Predicted Gross: $20.8 million
4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
5. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
Box Office Results (December 12-14)
Zootopia 2 returned to rule the charts with $25.8 million in its third frame, a bit ahead of my $23.6 million call. The Disney sequel sits at $258 million domestically and has already topped $1 billion globally.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $19.3 million. The 70% drop was, as expected, steep. However, it didn’t fall as far as my $15.7 million projection suggested. The horror sequel is near nine digits at $95 million.
Wicked: For Good was third with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.2 million prediction and it has conjured up $312 million in four weeks.
Hindi-language action pic Dhurandhar was #4 and I did not have it in the top 5. With $3.4 million, it had the highest per-screen-average of all features (nearly $10k per venue) and brought its earnings to $7.7 million after two weeks.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with only a 32% decline. With $2.3 million in its fifth weekend, the overall gross is $59 million. I also didn’t have it in the leading quintet.
That’s because I slightly overestimated Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution at $2.4 million and it made $2 million in sixth. The two-week take is $14 million.
Finally, poorly reviewed dramedy Ella McCay from veteran filmmaker James L. Brooks languished in seventh with $2 million. I was slightly a little more generous at $2.7 million.
It has been a decade since a SpongeBob movie was properly located in theaters, but that changes December 19th with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. Derek Drymon, a veteran of the Nickelodeon show, handles directorial duties. Voiceover artists from the quarter century plus running series include Tom Kenny, Clancy Brown, and Rodger Bumpass. Some familiar faces behind the mic are George Lopez, Ice Spice, Arturo Castro, Sherry Cola, Regina Hall, and Mark Hamill.
Back in 2004, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie opened to $32 million on its way to an $85 million domestic gross. In 2015, sequel Sponge Out of Water improved on those figures with $55 million out of the gate and $162 million overall stateside. In August of 2020, Sponge on the Run didn’t have a proper theatrical output due to the COVID pandemic.
Search is not expected to come close to what the first two franchise entries accomplished. There will be competition for families from the biblical animated tale David as well as Avatar: Fire and Ash. While some forecasts have this achieving mid 20s, I think mid to possibly late teens is a likelier scenario.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
Angel Studios is primed for another animated hit after The King of Kings performed well earlier this year with David on December 19th. The biblical musical is co-directed by Brent Dawes and Phil Cunningham. Phil Wickham, Brandon Engman, Asim Chaudhry, Mick Wingert, Will de Renzy-Martin, and Lauren Daigle provide voiceover work.
Timed for Christmas, David could slay in second place behind Avatar: Fire and Ash. In April, Angel’s aforementioned Kings capitalized on the Easter holiday period with a nearly $20 million opening and $60 million eventual domestic gross. Tracking for this is higher with faith-based crowds snatching up tickets already.
Perhaps some viewers will until the long Christmas weekend, but I still think low 20s is where this chapter begins.
David opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
Avatar: Fire and Ash hopes to heat up the holiday box office season on December 19th. Clocking in at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel arrives 16 years after the record breaking original and 3 years behind Avatar: The Way of Water. The large list of returning cast members doing their motion capture work includes Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, and Jack Champion. Oona Chaplin (daughter of Geraldine and granddaughter of Charlie) is a new addition and said to be a standout in a villainess turn.
Back in 2009, Avatar was seen a big risk for 20th Century Studios. After a $77 million opening, it legged out to (at the time) become the biggest blockbuster in history with $749 million domestically. That number has climbed to $785 million when factoring re-releases. The worldwide total is $2.9 billion. 2022’s The Way of Water actually underperformed in its first frame with $134 million but held fantastically throughout the holidays and beyond. It ended up with $688 million stateside after counting its recent re-release and $2.3 billion across the globe.
Forecasts have Fire coming in lower than Water and that makes sense. There was a 13 year build-up of anticipation for the first sequel. Only a three-year gap separates these. Competitors didn’t shy away from Fire either. While Water was the only wide release in its mid-December date, this will have animated biblical tale David, female catering The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob flick providing alternatives. To be fair, part of Water‘s lack of competition was due to COVID related lack of product.
Fire might fall just under $100 million for starters. Then it will look for a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and new year.
Avatar: Fire and Ash opening weekend prediction: $98 million
Romantic dramedy Ella McKay hopes to find some viewers in a quiet weekend before potential holiday heavy hitters like Avatar: Fire and Ash, David, and The Housemaid arrive. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Ella here:
Like December’s first frame, the battle for #1 should be between current champ Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Zootopia 2. I was wrong about what would come out on top to start off the month (more on that below). However, Freddy’s could experience a similar mid to high 70s percentage decline that its predecessor did in 2023. Zootopia‘s should be less than 50% which should give it the win. Take that for it’s worth because I thought Freddy’s would open in second.
Wicked: For Good should stay in third with McKay in lower single digits for a fourth place showing or lower. It’s even possible that the 25th anniversary screenings of How the Grinch Stole Christmas or 45th anniversary showing of The Shining could make the top 5.
I’ll leave them out and here’s how I envision the chart shaking out:
1. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
2. Five Night at Freddy’s 2
Predicted Gross: $15.7 million
3. Wicked: For Good
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
4. Ella McCay
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
5. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results(December 5-7)
I incorrectly thought Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 would suffer a far steeper drop-off from its predecessor which premiered at $80 million. While its $64 million haul was certainly less, it was far ahead of my $36.5 million estimate and ahead of expectations. Don’t be surprised if a third reservation is made by the studio.
That left Zootopia 2 in second place with $43.4 million, in line with my $43.1 million call. The Disney sequel has amassed $220 million since its Thanksgiving holiday start.
Wicked: For Good tumbled 72% to third in its third outing with $17.3 million. I was more generous at $23.2 million. This sequel is nearing $300 million at $297 million.
Anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Exeuction kept a hot streak going for the genre with $10 million, surpassing my $6.4 million prediction. Per above, expect a large drop in its sophomore play.
Finally, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with $3.4 million (I said $3.6 million) for $55 million after four weeks.
After a 15 year hiatus from the big screen, James L. Brooks is back in the director’s chair when Ella McCay debuts December 12th. The politically themed dramedy features Emma Mackey in the title role with a supporting cast including Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Lowden, Kumail Nanjiani, Ayo Edebiri, Julie Kavner, Rebecca Hall, Albert Brooks, and Woody Harrelson.
In the 1980s and 90s, Brooks was a cinematic force whose efforts like Terms of Endearment, Broadcast News, and As Good As It Gets were box office smashes and Best Picture nominees (or winner in the case of Terms). The 85-year-old auteur’s last production was 2010’s rom com How Do You Know. It flopped despite the star power of Reese Witherspoon, Owen Wilson, Paul Rudd, and Jack Nicholson in what appears to be his final role.
McCay doesn’t even have megawatt casting to bring in audiences. The fact that it skipped the festival circuit tells you 20th Century Studios knew this wasn’t an awards player unlike the filmmaker’s classics. This is also a genre that goes to streaming nowadays more often than not. Add all that up and this should languish in the lower single digits.
Ella McCay opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 looks to challenge Zootopia 2 for box office supremacy as anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is also unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers for the post Thanksgiving frame here:
I am not sold on Freddy’s 2 despite its predecessor’s sizzling $80 million start two years ago. As I explained in my write-up, I suspect a decent portion of its fanbase won’t turn up and my mid to high 30s take gives it runner-up status.
As for Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution, the genre has been on fire lately but this pre-screening of the TV show’s forthcoming third season may settle for fourth place and mid single digits.
Considering my reservations about Freddy’s, that would leave Zootopia 2 in first after an impressive premiere (more on that below). A mid 50s drop should be on the way.
Wicked: For Good‘s third frame decline could be even more pronounced for third position while Now You See Me: Now You Don’t should complete the top five in a sequel heavy lineup.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $43.1 million
2. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2
Predicted Gross: $36.5 million
3. Wicked: For Good
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
4. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (November 28-30)
Zootopia 2, as projected, easily managed the second best Turkey weekend opening behind Disney’s Moana 2 from last year. It also scored huge in China which helped contribute to it having the best animated worldwide debut of all time and the fourth best overall. With $100.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $158.8 million domestically since Wednesday, it did fall below my respective takes of $112.4 million and $184.3 million. Admittedly I took the over.
I should’ve taken the under on Wicked: For Good. A year ago, part 1 eased a mere 28% in its Thanksgiving sophomore outing. The follow-up fell 58% to $61.7 million while I called for $82 million. Nevertheless its two-week tally stands at a soaring $269 million.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was third in weekend #3 with $6.9 million, a tad ahead of my $6.2 million prediction for $49 million thus far.
Predator: Badlands was fourth in its fourth go-round with $4.8 million (I said $4.6 million). The franchise entry has $85 million in its coffers as it should come close to nine digits stateside.
The Running Man rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.4 million forecast for an underwhelming $34 million in three weeks.
Finally, rom com Eternity with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen was sixth out of the gate with $3.1 million over the traditional weekend and $5.2 million since Wednesday. That’s in range with my respective takes of $3 million and $4.4 million.
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