Bros Box Office Prediction

Billing itself as the first gay rom com from a major studio and featuring an all LGBTQ+ main cast, Universal Pictures releases Bros on September 30th. Nicholas Stoller (director of successful comedies Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors) is behind the camera with Judd Apatow producing. Billy Eichner of Billy on the Street fame stars alongside Luke Macfarlane. The supporting cast includes Ts Madison, Monica Raymund, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Jim Rash, Dot-Marie Jones, Bowen Yang, Harvey Fierstein, and Debra Messing.

While this particular humorous tale is making some history, it’s rare nowadays to find any comedy getting a wide release (at least one that’s not animated or filled with action). Bros premiered at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to glowing reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%.

Prognosticators have the range here at $10-15 million. That sounds reasonable and I suspect it’ll start out at the middle of that spectrum. It’ll likely have to settle for a second place showing behind horror pic Smile. However, I could see this legging out well when word-of-mouth gets out. As an aside, I saw Bros at TIFF and can confirm it should be quite the crowdpleaser.

Bros opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Smile prediction, click here:

Smile Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Bros

Bros has made quite the splash in its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 30th stateside rollout. This is the first rom com to feature a primarily LGBTQ+ cast. Nicholas Stoller, who’s helmed successful genre fare like Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors, directs. Billy Eichner and Luke Macfarlane are the lead couple with a supporting cast including Ts Madison, Monica Raymond, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Bowen Yang, and Debra Messing.

Early word out of Canada is that this is an entertaining and alternately sweet and raunchy romp (something I can confirm having been at the world premiere last night). The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 89%. I’m not sure Bros is as much an Oscar player (where there’s a comedic allergy) as it is a Globes contender. Since they differentiate between Drama and Musical/Comedy, I could easily see the Hollywood Foreign Press nominating this for Best Picture and for Eichner in Best Actor.

That said, I wouldn’t say its Academy hopes are completely dashed. There’s usually a lone screenplay nominee that receives no other nods and Stoller and Eichner’s original screenplay could fit that particular bill. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Lost City

At the Golden Globes honoring the pictures of 1984, Romancing the Stone managed to win the Musical/Comedy race. In doing so, it beat out sturdy competitors like Beverly Hills Cop, Ghostbusters, and Splash. Furthermore, Kathleen Turner took home Best Actress for her performance while costar Michael Douglas wasn’t nominated.

Why am I talking about this comedic adventure from nearly 40 years ago? The Lost City (out March 25th) is being compared to it a lot in the early reviews (which currently sit at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes).

From filmmakers Adam and Aaron Nee, Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum headline with a supporting cast including Brad Pitt (the critics are praising him), Daniel Radcliffe, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Bowen Yang. Here’s the deal… this isn’t really an Oscar Predictions post. I don’t think it’ll be in the running from Academy voters.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a different branch and could be a different story. Depending on the level of competition from future musicals and comedies in 2022, The Lost City‘s early buzz indicates it could make a play in that feature film competition or for Bullock. That would keep those comps to Stone relevant. My Oscar (and Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

The Lost City Box Office Prediction

Sandra Bullock is fresh off widely seen Netflix titles like Bird Box and The Unforgivable. Channing Tatum’s Dog is currently performing well in multiplexes. The two team up on March 25th for The Lost City, a romantic comedy adventure drawing comparisons to 1984’s Romancing the Stone. Adam and Aaron Nee co-direct. The two leads aren’t the only big names in the cast as Brad Pitt (said to be a standout) and Daniel Radcliffe join the party alongside Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Bowen Yang.

It’s a rare title in this era where the release date was pushed up (from April). City screened at South by Southwest last weekend to pleasing results. Based on 12 reviews thus far, it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is exactly the type of escapist fare that should appeal widely to action fans and with a female demographic to boot. It could end The Batman‘s reign atop the charts. I do believe a gross north of $30 million is totally possible, but I’ll put it a bit below that mark. That should set up a showdown between this and the Caped Crusader for box office supremacy.

The Lost City opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million