The biggest Oscar precursor thus far drops their nominations this Wednesday (with SAG following the next day) in a week where the awards picture should become a bit clearer.
Of course, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a habit of making some left field picks from time to time. And unlike the Academy, they split their film and lead acting races into Drama and Comedy/Musical.
Every week on the blog, I have been forecasting each Oscar race. However, for the Globes, it’s just one post with my final predictions for what I feel will happen on Wednesday. In every category, I’m also selecting a first and second alternate. We shall see how I do shortly!
P.S. – SAG Predictions are up tomorrow! Let’s get to it…
Best Film Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Second Alternate – The Father
Best Film Director
Predicted Nominees:
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
First Alternate – Florian Zeller, The Father
Second Alternate – Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
First Alternate – Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Second Alternate – Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
First Alternate – Steven Yeun, Minari
Second Alternate – Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Film Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Emma
Hamilton
Palm Springs
The Prom
First Alternate – On the Rocks
Second Alternate – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
First Alternate – Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Second Alternate – Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
First Alternate – Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
Second Alternate – James Corden, The Prom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
First Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Second Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
First Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Second Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – The Father
Second Alternate – Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
First Alternate – The Willoughbys
Second Alternate – Earwig and the Witch
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Martin Eden
Minari
Quo Vadis, Aida?
First Alternate – Dear Comrades!
Second Alternate – Beanpole
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
First Alternate – Hillbilly Elegy
Second Alternate – The Midnight Sky
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
First Alternate – “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Second Alternate – “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
And that breaks out to the following pictures receiving these numbers for nominations:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, The Life Ahead, Minari, Palm Springs
2 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, The Prom, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Martin Eden, The Mauritanian, Miss Americana, News of the World, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Wolfwalkers
I’ll have reaction to the Globe nods up on Wednesday!
The American Film Institute will announce their top 10 pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a safe predictor of half or more of the films that will land Best Picture nods at the Oscars. Over the past five years, the magic number has been 7 of the AFI selections getting Oscar love in the big race. That holds true for 2016, 2017, and 2019. In 2015 – it was 6. In 2018- it was 5.
So where do we stand this year? My overall estimates keep the estimated AFI number at 7 for my current Best Picture hopefuls (which could and probably will change). It is worth noting that for the previous two years, there’s a bit of an asterisk. Being that it’s the American Film Institute, foreign selections are ineligible. Due to this, surefire Oscar contenders Roma and Parasite didn’t qualify. This would apply in 2020 to The Father which is a British production.
As for the matches, they are as follows: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Now for the differences. AFI has shown a Disney love recently that the Academy did not share. AFI nominated Inside Out, Zootopia, and Mary Poppins Returns over the last five years with Oscar not following suit. Therefore I’m saying Pixar’s Soul makes the AFI cut.
The other two are critical favorites that (at press time) I have just missing Oscar’s cut: Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal. This means the three pics I have getting Oscar’s attention and not from AFI are Da 5 Bloods, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah.
What else could surprise? I would not be shocked to see Borat Subsequent Moviefilm make AFI’s list. If they don’t choose that comedy, there’s a lesser chance that Palm Springs could show up. AFI has also selected some blockbusters that Oscar ignored as of late. Examples include Knives Out, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. However, due to COVID in 2020, there’s just not a huge list of those types of contenders. Could Tenet sneak in? Doubtful.
Others that could be sleepers are First Cow, Pieces of a Woman, Malcolm & Marie, and Hillbilly Elegy, but here’s my take on what AFI does tomorrow:
My latest round of Oscar estimates keeps my predicted number of Best Picture nominees at the full 10 – with a change. It’s News of the World back in and Promising Young Woman on the outside looking in.
In the other major categories, my picks remain the same with some movement in the rankings. Most notably, in the Supporting Actress field, I am putting Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank back at #1 over Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy.
You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. The Father (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 7)
10. News of the World (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 13)
13. Soul (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 10)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 10)
10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (formerly Connected)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
2. Time (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 7)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. A Sun (PR: 6)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 8)
9. Two of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Never Gonna Snow Again
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
8. Minari (PR: 7)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Malcolm & Marie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 9)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
10. Greyhound (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 5)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. Mank (PR: 8)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers for nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
For the past several years, the magic number has traditionally been nine when it comes to Best Picture nominees. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10 according to the rules, unlike every other category. This changes to a finite 10 starting in 2022. And since August when I began these (mostly) weekly estimates, I’ve kept it at 9.
However, I am expanding it to ten this week as I believe Judas and the Black Messiah could easily make the cut and I just couldn’t take any of the other nine films out. Obviously this may change as we move closer to nomination morning, but that’s where I stand today.
In the major categories, other changes are Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) entering the Best Director mix for the first time and that takes out George C. Wolfe for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In Supporting Actor, I have yet again switched the 5 spot with Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) in and Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) out.
Zendaya’s work in Malcolm & Marie goes from unranked status all the way to #5 and this displaces Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. News of the World (PR: 11)
12. Soul (PR: 13)
13. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robin Wright, Land
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 9)
10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Minari (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 2)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. The Dissident (PR: 4)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 9)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. Collective (PR: 7)
5. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Sun (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
8. Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. Mulan (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 7)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
10. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Emma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, Mulan, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Collective, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Night of the Kings, Onward, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Momentum continued today for Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland to be a major Oscar player with the announcement of the National Society of Film Critics awards. It took 4 categories today – Best Picture, Director, Actress (Frances McDormand) and Cinematography.
The conventional wisdom right now is that if the Academy goes with the critics darling, Nomadland could be on its way to a Best Picture victory in April. Of course, they don’t always do that. They did last year with Parasite. They didn’t the year before with Roma.
The Society actually names their first and second runners-up in the races and it was First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always taking those spots. Both certainly have chances for Academy attention in the big competition, but I’ve yet to put either in my picks. Cow‘s maker Kelly Reichardt was second runner-up for her direction while Steve McQueen was first runner-up for Small Axe (which is not eligible for Oscar consideration since it’s a TV project).
McDormand is almost sure to get one of the five actress slots at the Oscars, though a win is much more questionable in a crowded field. Runners-up from the critics were Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Sidney Flanagan for Never Rarely.
In Best Actor, Delroy Lindo picked up another prize for Da 5 Bloods with Chadwick Boseman in Rainey and Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal following. All three appear likely to make the final cut at the Oscars. Boseman was second runner-up in Supporting Actor for Bloods behind Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) and Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). For Raci and Turman, they need as much critical love as possible to contend for Oscar.
Maria Bakalova picked up yet another reviewers award for her breakout role in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. I still question whether the Academy follows suit as comedic performers always have a tough time making the cut. Yet she’s certainly making her case. Runners-up were Amanda Seyfried (Mank) and Youn Yuh-jung (Minari).
The screenplay award went to Never Rarely Sometimes Always with First Cow and I’m Thinking of Ending Things in 2nd and 3rd. Best Foreign Language Film went to Romania’s Collective.
Bottom line: Nomadland is having a fine run through the critics honors as it treks toward Oscar recognition.
My initial 2021 Oscar predictions for the films released in 2020 (and January and February of this year) have arrived! And the new year’s estimates brings the first change in my nine Best Picture nominees in many weeks. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman now joins the group and that leaves out News of the World.
In Best Director, I have George C. Wolfe now in for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and that drops Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Another change is in Supporting Actor with Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) back in the final five over Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. In Original Screenplay, Da 5 Bloods makes it back ahead of Soul.
You can read all the movement below! Happy New Year and I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 5)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 15)
15. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 4)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
10. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah(PR: 8)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 2)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
4. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
5. A Sun (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
7. Collective (PR: 5)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
5. Emma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Soul (PR: 7)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Mulan
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Greyhound (PR: 9)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mank
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for films:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Emma, Judas and the Black Messiah, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
My final Oscars forecast for 2020 sees no changes in my nine Best Picture nominees (which has remained consistent for weeks), but some movement in other key races.
In Best Director, I have had David Fincher (Mank) listed at #1 for months, but that switches today as he falls to second with Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) taking the top spot. If she manages to take gold in April, Zhao would be just the second female to win the award behind Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker in 2009. Additionally, Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) is in my final five for the first time, replacing Regina King for One Night in Miami.
While there are no changes in the lead acting competitions, the supporting players are a different story. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari sees her first appearance in my five Supporting Actress hopefuls and that takes out Helena Zengel in News of the World. Same goes for Paul Raci in Supporting Actor for Sound of Metal and that’s to the detriment of Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7.
You can peruse all the rest of the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 11)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 3)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Predicted Nominees:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
8. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 8)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
9. A Sun (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 6)
7. The Prom (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 3)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 8)
8. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 9)
9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 10)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Tenet (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 6)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 5)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 7)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Minari
4 Nominations
News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Sound of Metal, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
The pre Christmas Oscar estimates are in! While my nine predicted Best Picture nominees remains the same (as they have for weeks), pay attention to Sound of Metal rising as it now ranks 10th and just on the outside looking in. Additionally, supporting players Paul Raci and Olivia Cooke are also looking like serious possibilities in those categories even if they’re not (yet) in the final five.
In Supporting Actor, Chadwick Boseman is back in (over Bill Murray in On the Rocks) as I’m feeling more confident of a double nomination for the late performer.
The fifth spot in Best Actress continues to fluctuate and this week we have Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) in that position over Michelle Pfeiffer’s work in French Exit.
Best Actor brings the first mention of Mads Mikkelsen’s role in Another Round at slot #8 with Ben Affleck (The Way Back) out of the top 10.
Adapted Screenplay sees its first look at First Cow in the projected cut and that takes out News of the World.
You can read all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions for the calendar year up next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 14)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 10)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 6)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
10. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demonslayer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 3)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
76 Days
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
8. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Collective (PR: 7)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlatan
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. The United vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. The Prom (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
9. Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Mank (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 8)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Emma (PR: 6)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Greyhound
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 6)
7. Mank (PR: 7)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
The New York Film Critics Circle bestowed their best of 2020 honors today and the group provided a significant boost to Kelly Reichardt’s First Cow. The 19th century set drama took Best Film. Cow‘s chances at Oscar attention has seemed iffy so far this year. In fact, I have yet to have it listed in my predicted nominees for the Academy’s highest prize.
That might not change, but it does have recent history on its side. Only one of the Best Film honorees from the previous decade (2015’s Carol) failed to nab a Picture nod at the Oscars. On the other hand, only one of the New York Circle winners from the past ten years went on to win (2011’s The Artist).
It was also a good day for Never Rarely Sometimes Always as Eliza Hittman’s feature won Best Screenplay and Sidney Flanagan took Best Actress. Flanagan’s inclusion in Best Actress with the Academy looks questionable in that crowded field, but this first critics win certainly gives her exposure.
Best Director went to Chloe Zhao for Nomadland. She seems to be a shoo-in at the Oscars and will likely compete for the victory with David Fincher (Mank).
In other acting derbies, it was Delroy Lindo taking Best Actor for Da 5 Bloods and Chadwick Boseman in Supporting Actor for his role in Spike Lee’s picture. As for the what the Academy will do, it’s more feasible that Boseman could win against Lindo for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Supporting Actress went the funny route with Maria Bakalova’s breakout role in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. The NYFCC has shown a willingness to honor comedic performers in this race as recent as three years ago with Tiffany Haddish in Girls Trip. It’s worthy of mention that Haddish did not end up on Oscar’s radar and Bakalova’s inclusion is up in the air as well.
The group’s Documentary award went to Time (a strong contender for the Academy) while Brazil’s Bacarau took the Foreign Language Prize. The latter is not its country’s submitted movie for Oscar consideration.
Bottom line: it’s a good day for First Cow, though it remains to be seen whether it can milk its buzz through nomination morning next year.
The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.
My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.
There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things.
And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Prom (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Supernova
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lupin III: The First
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 5)
3. Time (PR: 2)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. Boys State (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
8. Collective (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. 76 Days (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Charlatan (PR: 9)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Minari (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 3)
7. Mulan (PR: 8)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Prom (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 5)
7. Mank (PR: 9)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
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