Tag: Berlin Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: BlackBerry

2023 is at the halfway plus mark and critics are posting their best of lists for the year thus far. Matt Johnson’s BlackBerry, a dramedy focused on the invention of the OG smartphone, shows up on plenty. Jay Baruchel and Glenn Howerton (best known for It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia) headline with a supporting cast including the director himself, Rich Sommer, Michael Ironside, Martin Donovan, Michelle Giroux, SungWon Cho, Saul Rubinek, and Cary Elwes.

Those who first saw it at the Berlin Film Festival in February got the encouraging chatter started. Since its release in the past few weeks, the acclaim has grown as evidenced by the 98% Rotten Tomatoes meter.

Elevation Pictures is the studio behind it. Before becoming its own production company in recent years, they had awards success distributing such titles as The Imitation Game, Room, and Moonlight in Canada. They have yet to see their own financed entities have a breakout in the space.

I didn’t give BlackBerry much chance of being the one (that’s why you’re just now seeing this post). Yet the buzz seems to be getting louder. This applies to the adapted screenplay by Johnson and Matthew Miller and the supporting performance of Howerton, who is garnering best in show plaudits.

The bulk of contenders are often saved for the second six months of the calendar year, but BlackBerry could stick around in a way the product itself eventually could not. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Kokomo City

D. Smith’s provocative and acclaimed doc Kokomo City was first unveiled at Sundance in January. Following four transgender sex workers in Georgia and New York, it won an audience prize when it screened at the Berlin Film Festival. Magnolia picked up the distribution rights and it is slated for domestic release on July 28th.

With a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes, City‘s reviews are strong enough for potential awards consideration. If it manages to get buzz when it releases later next month (and it certainly could), this could be a contender for Documentary Feature that the Academy embraces. On the other hand, it might be too hot button for the unpredictable branch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Inside

Inside opens in limited release on March 17th after premiering at the Berlin Film Festival last month. Marking the directorial debut of Vasilis Katsoupis, Willem Dafoe stars as an art thief who gets trapped in a penthouse that he’s attempting to rob. Eliza Stuyck and Gene Bervoets costar.

Early reviews are decent with a 77% Rotten Tomatoes thus far. However, the only real awards attention this would get is for its lead. Dafoe has vied for Academy consideration for three and a half decades and come up short four times. This includes three nods in Supporting Actor (1986’s Platoon, 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire, The Florida Project in 2017) and a sole lead nomination for 2018’s At Eternity’s Gate as Vincent Van Gogh. I’m sure Inside‘s character would love some original works of his.

For Inside, there’s some raves for his work. Yet I’m not sure this pic will still be on the radar of voters a few months down the line. He has, at best, an outside shot. Perhaps his appearance in Poor Things from The Favourite director Yorgos Lanthimos later this year will give him another shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Golda

Well ahead of its scheduled late August debut stateside, Golda was unveiled this week at the Berlin Film Festival. From Guy Nativ (whose 2018 short film Skin won the Academy Award in that category), the biopic casts four-time nominee and one time winner Helen Mirren as Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir. Costars include Camille Cottin, Ed Stoppard, and Liev Schreiber.

Mirren is, of course, no stranger to playing leaders of nations. For her work as Queen Elizabeth II in 2006’s The Queen, she was crowned Best Actress. The other nods are for Supporting Actress in 1995’s The Madness of King George and 2001’s Gosford Park and in lead for 2009’s The Last Station.

The handful of Golda reviews thus far are mixed and it holds just a 40% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That said, praise for Mirren is present. It is entirely possible that this is ignored altogether a few months down the road by awards voters.

Another potential path is one taken by 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Despite its middling critical reaction, Chastain landed an Oscar nod and win. It also picked up a Makeup and Hairstyling victory. Golda is being heralded for its makeup work to make Mirren resemble the PM. Unlike Tammy, I don’t think this has a shot of winning either category. Nominations aren’t out of the question. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Quiet Girl

The nation of Ireland has a brief and unremarkable history in the International Feature Film competition at the Academy Awards. Beginning in 2007, they’ve submitted 8 features for consideration in the foreign race. Only one (2015’s Viva) made the shortlist and it did not make the final five.

In 2022, the Irish could finally get lucky with The Quiet Girl. The directorial debut from Colm Bairéad received raves after its premiere at the Berlin Film Festival earlier this year. That acclaim has continued as it has played other European fests. The drama set in the early 80s stars Carrie Crowley, Andrew Bennett, Catherine Clinch, and Michael Patric.

There’s a bunch of viable hopefuls in IFF this year. Decision to Leave and All Quiet on the Western Front seem to be the favorites and there’s easily 10-12 others looking to fill three slots.

Ireland may not have the track record, but there’s a first time for everything and The Quiet Girl is capable of making a little noise with the right campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Klondike

Ukraine has submitted 14 pictures for consideration in the International Feature Film competition at the Oscars since 1997. None have ended up making the final five in the race. Maryna Er Gorbach’s Klondike hopes to change that dynamic.

The war drama is set in 2014 and centers on the nation’s conflict with Russia. Obviously that subject matter is more prevalent than ever. Today’s headlines could contribute to Klondike being a high profile selection to join the quintet of IFF nominees.

It’s important to note that its inclusion wouldn’t just be a nod to current events. Gorbach’s fourth overall feature debuted at Sundance where she won the prize in the World Cinema Dramatic Competition. At the Berlin Film Festival, it came in second for the audience award. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 95%. I’ve had Klondike ranked 8th for the past couple of weeks in my possibilities, but it could rise if voters turn their focus to it a couple of months from now. Perhaps the 15th time will be the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Alcarras

Alcarras is the sophomore directorial from Carla Simon and the Spanish family drama topped The Beasts and Lullaby to become the nation’s submission for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. It debuted earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival where it won the Golden Bear (the fest’s highest honor). Simon’s 2017 debut Summer of 1993 was also Spain’s selection for the Academy to consider, but it didn’t end up making the final five.

Could Alcarras? With an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating and the hardware from Germany, it’s possible. Yet it faces hurdles. While the bulk of reviews are recommendations, some of them aren’t raves. Pics such as All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, and Close are likely nominees for IFF so there’s not many slots to go around.

Spain has seen two movies in the 21st century contend for the foreign derby: 2004’s The Sea Inside (which won) and 2019’s Pain and Glory. It’s feasible that Alcarras could be the third though I have it on the outside looking in currently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

After premiering at the Berlin Film Festival to solid reviews, crime drama The Outfit hits approximately 1200 screens on March 18th. Graham Moore, Oscar winner for penning the screenplay for The Imitation Game, makes his directorial debut. The cast is led by Mark Rylance with Zoey Deutch, Dylan O’Brien, Johnny Flynn, and Simon Russell Beale in the supporting cast.

While critical reaction is pleasing (92% on Rotten Tomatoes), the lack of star power and fairly low theater count makes me skeptical that this breaks through to domestic crowds.

I don’t believe this will average even $1,000 per location. If it fits in the $800-$900 range, it may manage to clear $1 million. I’m not even confident about that, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt.

The Outfit opening weekend prediction: $1 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my X prediction, click here:

X Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Outfit

Graham Moore is an Oscar winner in Adapted Screenplay for 2014’s The Imitation Game. One year later, Mark Rylance scored an upset Supporting Actor victory for Bridge of Spies. Moore makes his directorial debut for the 1950s set crime pic The Outfit in which Rylance stars as a tailor serving dangerous types. The supporting cast includes Zoey Deutch, Dylan O’Brien, and Johnny Flynn.

The pic debuted at the Berlin Film Festival last weekend and is slated for theaters next month. Reviews from Germany are positive if not gushing and it holds a 91% score on Rotten Tomatoes. So is The Outfit suited for awards attention?

Probably not. However, Rylance is drawing some raves and there’s kudos for tech aspects such as production design. And I suppose any movie about a tailor (The Outfit‘s running time takes place in one setting) could be a hopeful for costume design. It’s also worth noting that Alexandre Desplat (who’s received 11 nominations and won 2) did the score.

I find it unlikely that voters will recall The Outfit later this year, but perhaps Focus Features will set their sights on a campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Petite Maman

French director Celine Sciamma’s 2019 historical romance Portrait of a Lady on Fire turned plenty of heads upon its release. Its accolades included the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and a nod for Best Foreign Language Film at the Golden Globes.

Her follow-up is the family drama Petite Maman, which premiered this spring in Berlin and was released overseas in the summer. Reviews for the feature are mostly glowing and it stands at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes.

If France selects Maman for representation in International Feature Film, it could achieve something that Portrait did not – a nomination in that category. Two years ago, the French chose to go with Les Miserables instead and it did make the final cut (losing to juggernaut Parasite).

A nod is certainly feasible, though this race has plenty of major contenders including A Hero, Flee, The Worst Person in the World, and The Hand of God. Whether there’s room for Sciamma’s latest is certainly a question mark at the moment. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2022 will continue…