Tag: Berlin Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: Mickey 17

Prior to its March 7th domestic release, Mickey 17 has debuted overseas at the Berlin Film Festival. The sci-fi satire is Bong Joon-ho’s eagerly awaited follow-up to 2019’s Parasite which dominated the 92nd Academy Award by taking Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film. Originally slated for spring 2024, Mickey stars Robert Pattinson, Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo.

Early reviews suggests this is more in line with Joon-ho’s Okja as opposed to Parasite. With 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic, the acclaim isn’t as universal as the multiple Oscar winner. The release date would further suggest that Warner Bros won’t make this a major awards play (though this pattern did work for Dune: Part Two).

That said, some reaction is quite effusive. While Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (it’s based on a 2022 Edward Ashton novel) could be a stretch, down the line tech races like Sound and Visual Effects could happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: No Other Land

No Other Land has been playing the festival circuit since Berlin early this year. It played Telluride over the weekend and makes its way to Toronto later this week. Focused on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the documentary features a quartet of directors – Basel Adra, Hamdan Billal, Yuval Abraham, and Rachel Szor.

Most early reviews are raves and it has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far. It picked up two prizes in Berlin. Obviously this is touchy subject matter and it’s an open question as to whether the Academy’s doc branch will put it in the mix. They haven’t shied away from controversial issues previously. My hunch is that if No Other Land makes the shortlist of 15 hopefuls in Best Documentary Feature, it will probably end up in the nominated five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Femme

Sam H. Freeman and Ng Choon Ping’s LGBTQ+ revenge thriller Femme first screened at the Berlin Film Festival back in February 2023 with a U.K. premiere in December. After a limited stateside release in March, it hits streaming services tomorrow. The recipient of 11 British Independent Film Awards, the sole win was for its two leads Nathan Stewart-Jarrett and George MacKay in Best Joint Lead Performance. It is a feature-length adaptation of a BAFTA nominated short film from 2021.

Unlike like their Independent counterparts, the BAFTAs ignored the full-length Femme despite strong reviews (94% on RT). 1917 star MacKay made the long list for Best Actor, but didn’t place among the 6 eventual nominees. Though it should be eligible for this year’s Oscars due to the spring release, the Academy is unlikely to put it in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Dahomey

Mati Diop’s documentary Dahomey has won the Golden Bear, the top prize at the Berlin Film Festival. Focusing on the theft and return of ancient African artifacts, it marks the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2019’s Atlantics. That fictional work was Senegal’s International Feature Film submission. It made the shortlist but not the final cut of five.

The French release date for Dahomey isn’t until September and U.S. distribution is TBD. Clocking in at just 67 minutes, the early RT score is a clean 100%. The length is enough to contend for Documentary Feature and it has a solid shot at doing just that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: La Cocina

Alonso Ruizpalacios’s La Cocina takes place in the high stakes environment of an NYC restaurant. Some critics are saying it makes the frenetic action of TV’s acclaimed The Bear seem downright quaint. The Mexican filmmaker’s follow-up to 2021’s A Cop Movie is generating plenty of buzz from its Berlin Film Festival premiere.

Raúl Briones Carmona and Rooney Mara headline a cast that includes Anna Diaz, Motell Foster, and Oded Fehr. With a 90% RT score, some reviews indicate this could be an awards player. In order for that occur, a distributor would need to mark a solid campaign (it’s bound to get picked up in short order). If Mexico makes it their pick for International Feature Film, a spot in the eventual quintet is on the menu. A best case scenario could be nods beyond IFF with Carmona, Mara, Adapted Screenplay, and perhaps BP/Director as possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Small Things like These

There’s a darn good chance that Cillian Murphy will take the Best Actor prize as Oppenheimer a little less than a month from now. A second nomination in a row is not out of the question based on buzz from the Berlin Film Festival. Tim Mielants’s 1980s set Irish drama Small Things like These has kicked off the German fest to acclaim. Costars include Eileen Walsh, Michelle Fairley, Emily Watson, and Ciaran Hinds.

Based on the smattering of reviews, the RT score is 100%. Based on a 2021 novel by Claire Keegan, much of the praise is centered on Murphy. Given that Oppenheimer appears well on its way to multiple victories, Small should have no trouble securing stateside distribution.

A smart campaign could put its lead in the mix again. The Adapted Screenplay from Enda Walsh is also being singled out. Obviously we are extraordinarily early in the season for the 97th Academy Awards. Yet this is one to keep in mind as the months roll along. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Orlando, My Political Biography

Paul B. Preciado’s French documentary Orlando, My Political Biography (out in limited fashion November 10th) explores the title character from a Virginia Woolf novel who changes gender midway through. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit this fall. The Critics Choice documentary nods put it up for Best First Documentary Feature.

With an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, there are other docs generating more rapturous acclaim. Yet the subject matter could be tantalizing for awards voters. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t make the Academy’s shortlist of possibilities when revealed next month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Our Body

Set in the gynecological ward of a Parisian hospital, Claire Simon directs the documentary Our Body. It premiered at the Berlin Festival back in February and made its rounds on the circuit before a limited release in August. With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, it nabbed a key precursor nod in the doc race at the Gotham Awards earlier this week.

At this point, it’s a guessing game which pics in the genre make the Academy’s shortlist in a couple of months. Features like Beyond Utopia, 20 Days in Mariupol, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie have been my frontrunners. However, I can’t say enough how unpredictable this branch of voters tends to be. Our Body has the reviews to make the list of hopefuls. If it does, making the final five is certainly feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Teachers’ Lounge

Germany has picked The Teachers’ Lounge as its hopeful for Best International Feature Film as they try to keep their impressive track record running in this 21st century. The dramatic thriller from Ilker Çatak premiered earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued playing the festival circuit. Leonie Benesch stars in a role earning acclaim and the pic itself stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 25 reviews.

As mentioned, the submitting nation has seen its share of successes in recent years. Just last year, All Quiet on the Western Front won the IFF derby. Others victors this century are Nowhere in Africa (2002) and The Lives of Others (2006). Six others selections have made the contending quintet.

At this early juncture, England’s The Zone of Interest and France’s The Taste of Things are probably the frontrunners for the statue. Then there’s three spots available for a host of feasible nominees. Lounge is certainly one of them and I wouldn’t underestimate it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tótem

Tótem from Lila Avilés has been announced as Mexico’s selection for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. The family drama premiered back in February at the Berlin Film Festival and has been making the rounds at the other fests since.

It will attempt to become the sixth Mexican title in the 21st century to make the foreign five with the Academy. The others were 2000’s Amores perros, 2002’s The Crime of Father Amaro, 2006’s Pan’s Labyrinth, 2010’s Biutiful, and 2018’s Roma (the sole victor). Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are at 95% and there’s a few that are outright raves. I did not have this in my top ten possibilities when I updated my IFF forecast on the blog five days back. I could be underestimating it and we’ll see if it enters that list during my next forecast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…