Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast looks to dominate the box office this weekend as The Belko Experiment also debuts with what will likely be a soft opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
It should be a fascinating weekend to track as St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Friday and a good portion of the East Coast might be digging out of expected blizzard like conditions. Even with those potential obstacles, I’m still projecting Beast will achieve a monstrous opening that would place it 10th in all-time domestic debuts.
As for Belko, my $3.2 million projection would put it in a weak seventh place.
Regarding holdovers, Kong: Skull Island premiered above expectations (a trend in the month of March) and looks to lose in the mid-high 50s in weekend #2. Logan, Get Out, and The Shack should populate the rest of the top five.
And with that, my projections for the weekend:
1. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $158.8 million
2. Kong: Skull Island
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)
3. Logan
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. Get Out
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. The Shack
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (March 10-12)
Kong: SkullIsland exceeded most prognosticators estimates with a robust $61 million, well above my $48.6M prediction. The ape tale was assisted by mostly positive reviews and look for the title character to return vs. Godzilla in three years.
Logan dropped to second in its sophomore weekend with $38.1 million, a bit shy of my $42.5M projection. The acclaimed comic book pic is up to $152M thus far.
GetOut continued its stunning grosses with $20.7 million for third place – on track with my take of $19.8M. It’s up to $110M.
TheShack held nicely in weekend #2 with $10 million (I said $10.7M) for $32M total. TheLegoBatmanMovie rounded out the top five with $7.6 million compared to my $6.8M guesstimate. The domestic total for it is $158M.
Next weekend, the horror thriller TheBelkoExperiment debuts in theaters and it will attempt to serve as counter programming to Disney’s likely box office behemoth BeautyandtheBeast. That could be an uphill battle.
Belko comes from director Greg McLean, who last helmed 2016’s underwhelming performer TheDarkness. Its screenwriter is of more note – James Gunn, who directed GuardiansoftheGalaxy and its upcoming May sequel. The pic is set in Bogota, Columbia with a group of employees pitted against one another in a violent social experiment. Stars include John Gallagher Jr., Tony Goldwyn, Adria Arjona, John C. McGinley, and Michael Rooker.
This debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to so-so buzz and it currently sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing campaign has been rather soft and it’s only slated to open on about 1200 screens.
Add that up and I believe Belko will debut poorly and fade quickly.
TheBelkoExperiment opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast arrives in theaters next weekend and it looks poised for quite a fantastic opening. Bill Condon serves behind the camera (he directed the last two Twilight installments recently) with Emma Watson as Belle and Dan Stevens as the Beast. Costars include Luke Evans, Kevin Kline, Josh Gad, Ian McKellen, Ewan McGregor, Stanley Tucci, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, and Emma Thompson.
The Mouse Factory has had tremendous success with their reboots of their classic animated tales. 2014’s Maleficent took in $241 million stateside. The following year, Cinderella cleared $200 million. Last year’s The Jungle Book scored even more impressively with $364 million.
Beauty stands a great shot at outdoing them all. For starters, the 1991 original is beloved (it was the first animated feature to nab a Best Picture nomination). The Disney marketing machine has been in high gear and turnout among youngsters and females in particular should be substantial. Reviews (while not gushing) have been solid and it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.
There is little doubt that this will post 2017’s largest opening so far. Just how high can it go? I am predicting it will achieve one of the top ten domestic premieres of all time. My estimate puts it at #10, right in between The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight for a truly beast mode roll out.
Beauty and the Beast opening weekend prediction: $158.8 million
For my The Belko Experiment prediction, click here:
Disney’s live-action version of their acclaimed 1991 animated tale (as old as time) Beauty and the Beast is out next weekend. It’s a safe bet that it makes a killing at the box office. It could approach the $364 million territory that The Jungle Book achieved last year and will almost certainly post 2017’s biggest opening thus far, overtaking Logan.
Let’s not forget: the quarter century plus version of Belle and her Beastly beau was the first animated feature to be nominated for Best Picture. Any chance that this rendering of the classic story could follow suit?
Short answer: no. Beast currently sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a decent score but way under the 95% reached by Jungle and that couldn’t get a Picture nod. That said, Beauty could be a factor in some down the line categories. Production Design, Visual Effects, and Makeup and Hairstyling are all possibilities. Where it’s most likely to show up is in Costume Design, where the studio’s recent remakes of Cinderella and Maleficent both scored nominations.
Happy New Year y’all and hope you’re enjoying your first day of 2017!
For my inaugural post of the year, I’m giving you 17 of my eagerly awaited pictures hitting screens this year. They’re listed alphabetically and represent some circles on the calendar for yours truly.
Here’s to a great year at the movies!h
Alien: Covenant
Release Date: May 19
The sixth installment of the Alien franchise is a sequel to 2013’s Prometheus, which received a deserved mixed reaction. Ridley Scott is back behind the director’s chair with Michael Fassbender returning and Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, and Danny McBride among the supporting players. There is also expected to be an alien involved.
AllEyezonMe
Release Date: June 16
Benny Boom is known for directing many well-known hip hop videos, but this feature tells the tale of one of America’s finest rappers – Tupac Shakur. Newcomer Demetrius Shipp, Jr. plays the late performer.
BeautyandtheBeast
Release Date: March 17
Disney has found tremendous success with their live-action remakes of animated classics and this reworking of the 1991 Best Picture nominee is likely to follow suit. Bill Condon directs with Emma Watson as Belle and Dan Stevens as the Beast.
BladeRunner2049
Release Date: October 6
Arriving 35 years after Ridley Scott’s heralded science fiction experience, Arrival director Denis Villeneuve brings back this noirish world with Harrison Ford back as Deckard alongside Ryan Gosling.
ACureforWellness
Release Date: February 17
Talented director Gore Verbinski has made some impressive pics – TheRing and the first PiratesoftheCaribbean among them. He’s also had some not so impressive ones, including the Pirates sequels and TheLoneRanger. This psychological horror thriller looks like it could be a return to form.
TheDarkTower
Release Date: July 28
For many years, a number of filmmakers have attempted to bring Stephen King’s novel to the screen. It’s finally happened with Matthew McConaughey and Idris Elba starring.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Dunkirk
Release Date: July 21
Anything from Christopher Nolan has earned our anticipation and so it goes with this World War II effort featuring Tom Hardy and Kenneth Branagh.
GhostintheShell
Release Date: March 31
Based on the wildly popular Japanese comic book series, Scarlett Johansson headlines the sci-fi action thriller.
GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol. 2
Release Date: May 5
Summer ’17 kicks off with Star Lord, Rocket, and Lil Groot back on screen after their acclaimed first foray into the Marvel Cinematic Universe in 2014.
JusticeLeague
Release Date: November 17
Speaking of superheroes, DC has Batman (Ben Affleck), Superman (Henry Cavill), Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot – who has her own stand-alone pic this summer), Aquaman (Jason Momoa), and the Flash (Ezra Miller) joining forces.
Kong: SkullIsland
Release Date: March 10
The giant ape is back for the first time in 12 years in this 1970s set blockbuster hopeful boasting a first-rate cast that includes Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, John Goodman and John C. Reilly.
Logan
Release Date: March 3
17 years after first creating his signature role, Hugh Jackman is Wolverine for (apparently) the final time.
TheMummy
Release Date: June 9
The Universal monsters reassemble in this reboot that stars Tom Cruise, Russell Crowe, and lotsa hopefully cool CG.
MurderontheOrientExpress
Release Date: November 22
This property based on the Agatha Christie Book was adapted successfully in the mid 70s by director Sidney Lumet. This time around, Kenneth Branagh is behind the camera with an all-star cast that includes Johnny Depp, Daisy Ridley, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Josh Gad, Michael Pena and Michelle Pfeiffer.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Spider–Man: Homecoming
Release Date: July 7
After making a nice impression in CaptainAmerica: CivilWar, Tom Holland is the third actor to portray the title superhero. Michael Keaton, Marisa Tomei, and Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark costar.
StarWars: EpisodeVIII
Release Date: December 15
The still untitled follow-up to TheForceAwakens is pretty much unquestionably going to be 2017’s highest earner. Expect considerably more screen time for Mark Hamill’s Luke and sadly, Carrie Fisher’s final screen appearance as Leia.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
WarforthePlanetoftheApes
Release Date: July 14
Kong isn’t the only big-budget monkey business happening onscreen as the third installment of this franchise finds Andy Serkis’s Caesar returning and Woody Harrelson joining the mix.
Towards the end of each calendar year, I’ve put up posts honoring the people who have captured our movie going attention during that time period. 2015 was the first year that I honored a feeling in one post as opposed to an individual. Last year, it was Nostalgia and it fit due to the box office potency of titles like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Jurassic World, among others.
In 2016, the initial posting is again not a human, but a studio. And it’s Disney. The Mouse Factory has set the all-time record for studio grosses in a calendar year and its list of blockbusters is something to behold.
Currently, Disney is responsible for half of the top ten grossing pictures of the year and that list will grow to six very shortly with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.
Let’s break it down: Finding Dory ($486 million) is #1 with Captain America: Civil War ($408M) at second. Rogue is likely to join the top three for a Disney trifecta atop the year.
#4 is The Jungle Book ($364M). #6 is Zootopia ($341M) and #9 is Doctor Strange ($226M). Moana is sitting at #11 right now with $162M.
In short, the studio is making a killing on their three most valued properties: animation and the live-action adaptations of them, Marvel Studios, and the Star Wars franchise. That is bound to continue in 2017 with animated features like Cars 3 and Coco. As for the live-action remakes, expect March’s Beauty and the Beast to do boffo business. On the Marvel side, we have Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnorak. And of the Star Wars juggernaut,we have Episode VIII (still untitled) invading theaters in December.
Of course, not everything Disney released this year was a smash. There were high-profile flops like Alice Through the Looking Glass and The BFG. Also, Pete’s Dragon did decent business, but nothing compared to its other renderings of the animated classics. In 2017, a big question mark is whether or not they can successfully reinvigorate another once popular series with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.
Those few disappointments aside, it was a watershed year for Disney and they deservedly get the first mention in my year end honors.
The Disney live-action remake train keep rolling along next weekend as Pete’s Dragon debuts in theaters. The Mouse Factory has found great success in the past couple of years taking their storied animated hits of decades past and repackaging and re-imagining them with real actors and tons of CG effects.
Pete’s Dragon, however, is a slightly different story. Unlike Maleficent, Cinderella, and The Jungle Book (and next year’s Beauty and the Beast for that matter), the pic this is based on is not considered a classic. The Disney Dragon ‘toon opened in 1977 at a time when the studio was in a downturn in their animation department. It was only a mild box office performer and reviews weren’t too strong.
The fact that Disney has been on a roll lately should help Pete and his magical dragon change the narrative somewhat with this property. David Lowery (best known for directing the low budget indie drama Ain’t Them Bodies Saints) is behind the camera. Oakes Fegley plays the title character (the Pete part) while the dragon is handled by Weta Digital. Costars include Bryce Dallas Howard, Robert Redford, Wes Bentley, and Karl Urban. Early reviews have been mostly positive with an 81% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Let’s start here: this has no real chance of reaching the heights of the live action reboots before it. 2014’s Maleficent made $69 million for its start. Last year’s Cinderella earned $67 million. This spring’s The Jungle Book made $103 million. Dragon may be lucky to make half of any of those titles in its opening. Disney should be pretty happy if this manages to top $35 million, but my prediction reflects a belief that just over/under $30 million is the more likely scenario.
Pete’s Dragon opening weekend prediction: $29.8 million
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