Aunjanue Ellis’s performance as the supportive and strong willed matriarch of a tennis dynasty in King Richard is my final Case Of post for the Supporting Actress hopefuls. The other four can be accessed here:
Known most for her TV work prior to this, Ellis stole a scene or two from Best Actor frontrunner Will Smith and critics noticed. So did BAFTA, Globe, and Critics Choice, where she also scored nods.
The Case Against Aunjanue Ellis:
She didn’t run the table as SAG omitted her. Ellis also lost the Globe to Ariana DeBose for West Side Story (who also took SAG) and she’s considered perhaps the sturdiest favorite of all the four acting competitions.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The awards love for King Richard is likely to be served up to Smith and not Ellis.
My Case Of posts will conclude with the final Supporting Actor contender – Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog…
As if Sunday’s Critics Choice Awards weren’t enough, the British Academy Film Awards air the same day. The BAFTAs, as of late, have been a rather reliable predictor for Oscar races (especially the acting derbies). Last year, the BAFTA/Oscar matched in all 4 thespian derbies and that included the surprise Anthony Hopkins (The Father) victory over Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
That can’t occur this time around because none of the Best Actress contenders at BAFTA are nominated for the Academy Award (go figure!). As I have with other ceremonies, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up. On Monday, expect recaps for Critics Choice and this show!
Best Film
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Belfast
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Audrey Diwan, Happening
Julia Ducournau, Titane
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Aleem Khan, After Love
Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Predicted Winner: Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Stephen Graham, Boiling Point
Will Smith, King Richard
Predicted Winner: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Will Smith, King Richard
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Ruth Negga, Passing
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: The Lost Daughter
Best Animated Film
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Predicted Winner: Flee
Runner-Up: Encanto
Best Documentary
Nominees:
Becoming Cousteau
Cow
Flee
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul
Runner-Up: Flee
Best Film Not in the English Language
Nominees:
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
Parallel Mothers
Petite Maman
The Worst Person in the World
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Runner-Up: The Worst Person in the World
Best Casting
Nominees:
Boiling Point
Dune
The Hand of God
King Richard
West Side Story
Predicted Winner: West Side Story
Runner-Up: Dune
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Predicted Winner: Cruella
Runner-Up: Dune
Best Editing
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
Summer of Soul
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: No Time to Die
Best Makeup and Hair
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Predicted Winner: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Runner-Up: House of Gucci
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley
Best Sound
Nominees:
Dune
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place Part II
West Side Story
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: No Tme to Die
Best Special Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: No Time to Die
Outstanding British Film
Nominees:
After Love
Ali & Ava
Belfast
Boiling Point
Cyrano
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
House of Gucci
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die
Passing
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: After Love
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Nominees:
After Love
Boiling Point
The Harder They Fall
Keyboard Fantasies
Passing
Predicted Winner: Passing
Runner-Up: After Love
My predictions mean the following movies get these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
Dune
5 Wins
The Power of the Dog
2 Wins
Belfast, West Side Story
1 Win
After Love, Cruella, Drive My Car, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, Passing, Summer of Soul
Kristen Stewart’s role as Princess Diana in Spencer is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Best Actress contenders. The first four can be accessed here:
Awards attention for the Twilight star has been building for some time. After acclaimed performances in indie fare like Clouds of Sils Maria, Certain Women, and Personal Shopper, this high-profile role has been considered a potential frontrunner performance since it debuted at the Venice Film Festival.
The Case Against Kristen Stewart:
That frontrunner status hit massive speed bumps. While Stewart nabbed Golden Globe and Critics Choice nods, she was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. She lost the Globe to Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and SAG went to Jessica Chastain. She’s yet to take a significant precursor (a Critics Choice Award this weekend could help). Furthermore, Spencer drew mixed reaction from critics and audiences and Stewart holds the sole Oscar nod for it.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
It’s a guessing game in Best Actress. Despite Stewart’s setbacks, she’s still in the running in this wide open derby. Her exclusion in SAG could even cause Academy voters to grant her retribution. That said, she’s probably behind Chastain and Kidman at the moment.
My Case Of posts will continue with our last Best Actor player – Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth…
As the doggedly determined father of eventual tennis royalty Venus and Serena Williams, Smith has held frontrunner status for months. He lost his first two bids in 2001 and 2006 for Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness, respectively. As one of the most bankable stars of the past quarter century, Hollywood could certainly feel like it’s time to honor him. The Golden Globe and SAG voters moved in the that direction as he took both awards for his work. Richard also over performed at the Oscars with six nominations.
The Case Against Will Smith:
There’s not much of one except there’s been upsets previously in this race. That includes last year when Anthony Hopkins (The Father) took the statue over the favored Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Playing the role of spoiler could be Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, which dominated overall nods at 12. If Cumberbatch wins the Critics Choice award or BAFTA, look for plenty of chatter on the tightness of this competition.
Previous Nominations: 2
Ali (2001 – Actor); The Pursuit of Happyness (2006 – Actor)
The Verdict:
Look for Smith to be crowned the victor, but there’s a nagging feeling that Cumberbatch could surprise.
My Case Of posts will continue with Kirsten Dunst’s Supporting Actress bid for The Power of the Dog…
My Case Of posts arrive at the third Supporting Actor contender and it’s Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog. The first two write-ups can be found here:
Having appeared in acclaimed TV and cinematic works including Breaking Bad and Fargo on the small screen and The Master, The Irishman, and Judas and the Black Messiah on the big one, Plemons scores his first Academy nod. Dog led all nominees with 13 and that includes Kirsten Dunst (the actor’s real life love interest).
The Case Against Jesse Plemons:
It also includes his costar Kodi Smit-McPhee, who’s nominated in the same category and won the Golden Globe. Despite a BAFTA mention, Plemons didn’t make the SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice shortlists. Smit-McPhee and Troy Kotsur (CODA) are looked at as the potential victors. Woody Harrelson in 2017 lost to his costar Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as did Lakeith Stranfield last year to Daniel Kaluuya for the aforementioned Judas. Plemons could play that role this time around.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Plemons might be back again next year with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Don’t look for an Oscar delivery here.
My Case Of posts will continue with Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s direction of Drive My Car…
Judi Dench’s role as Granny in Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast is the third Case Of post for the Supporting Actress nominees. If you didn’t catch the first two, they can be accessed here:
The legendary veteran scored her 8th nomination and that’s 8 more than her four competitors have received… combined. She’s actually won just once for Shakespeare in Love and that was 23 years ago. The Academy could feel it’s time to honor her again and the fact that she surprisingly got in over costar Caitriona Balfe could be proof of that.
The Case of Judi Dench:
As mentioned, it was certainly a surprise nomination (perhaps more so than any other of the 16 acting hopefuls). Dench didn’t make the cut for the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, or even BAFTA.
Previous Nominations: 7
Mrs. Brown (1997 – Actress); Shakespeare in Love (1998 – Supporting Actress, WON); Chocolat (2000 – Supporting Actress); Iris (2001 – Actress); Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005 – Actress); Notes on a Scandal (2006 – Actress); Philomena (2013 – Actress)
The Verdict:
The tally should continue to be one victory for Dench as Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is the overwhelming favorite.
My Case Of posts will continue in Supporting Actor with Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog…
The eyes of Oscar prognosticators were focused on this evening’s SAG Awards and it provided some further suspense as we figure out who will be taking the Academy’s gold.
Let’s get the particulars out of the way as I went 3 for 5 (just like last year). One burning question was whether Best Actress would continue to be a free for all of unpredictability. And it did as Jessica Chastain took SAG for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. She was runner-up over my pick of Globe winner Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos). This puts Chastain in a better position to take the Oscar, but the race is far from decided.
As for Actor and Supporting Actress – SAG followed the Globes lead with Will Smith (King Richard) and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) respectively. It solidifies their status as Academy frontrunners and matches my projections. I wouldn’t bet against either come Oscar time, but let’s see if the forthcoming BAFTAs can change the narrative.
I also called Troy Kotsur (CODA) for Supporting Actor yet that Academy competition is hardly over as Globes recipient Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) should make it interesting.
CODA turned out to be the big winner of the night as it also took Best Ensemble. Not bad for a Sundance darling that Apple TV purchased the streaming rights for. It was my runner-up pick to Belfast, which could have used a trophy this evening for momentum.
While CODA‘s impressive showing could lead to dark horse predictions for it to nab Best Picture in a month, I wouldn’t go too far down the rabbit hole as The Power of the Dog still looks to be the odds on favorite.
And there you have it, folks! My Oscar speculation will keep rolling for the next four weeks!
Penelope Cruz’s performance in Parallel Mothers is the third Best Actress entry in my Case Of posts. If you missed the ones covering the other C’s (Jessica Chastain and Olivia Colman), they’re here:
More than any other high profile race, Best Actress looks wide open. Spain inexplicably didn’t name Mothers as its International Feature Film selection (it probably would’ve been nominated). Instead it settled for this nod and Original Score. This could provide a way for the Academy to honor it.
The Case Against Penelope Cruz:
If Cruz were to take this, she would do so without mentions from the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, or Critics Choice. That just doesn’t happen.
Previous Nominations: 3
Volver (2006 – Actress); Vicky Christina Barcelona (2008 – Supporting Actress, WON); Nine (2009 – Supporting Actress)
The Verdict:
When Cruz won Supporting Actress 13 years ago for Vicky Christina Barcelona, she was the favorite. For her other two nominations in 2006 and 2009, she was a major long shot. That is once again the case and of the five women up, I believe she’s got the lowest chance to emerge victorious.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third Best Actor competitor – Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick… Boom!
Olivia Colman’s turn in Netflix’s The Lost Daughter is the second Case Of post for the five women competing for Best Actress. If you missed the first on Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, you can find it here:
It’s another hailed performance from the Oscar winner who surprisingly took to the podium three years back for The Favourite (upsetting frontrunner Glenn Close in The Wife). Colman gets her third nod in four years. In addition to the victory from 2018, she was nominated last year in supporting for The Father. She nabbed precursor attention at the Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. Daughter performed decently with the Academy with Jessie Buckley receiving an unexpected spot in Supporting Actress and director Maggie Gyllenhaal’s being recognized for her adapted screenplay. Furthermore, Best Actress looks wide open and anything could happen.
The Case Against Olivia Colman:
Had Daughter managed a Best Picture slot, I might feel more confident in calling for a potential second trophy for Colman. That said, none of the five Actress’s films are in the big dance. Critics liked this better than general audiences judging from Rotten Tomatoes. In an unexpected twist, BAFTA did not include Colman. What gives me the most pause is that Colman is the most recent recipient – Jessica Chastain and Kristen Stewart (Spencer) have never won, Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) is a supporting winner from 13 years ago, and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) took Actress 19 years ago.
Previous Nominations: 2
The Favourite (2018 – Actress, WON); The Father (2020 – Supporting Actress)
The Verdict:
This is a tricky one and good luck figuring out Best Actress in 2021. The counterargument to the recency bias is that it didn’t hurt Frances McDormand (Nomadland) last year. However, that was a frontrunner for BP and that narrative doesn’t exist this time around. If Colman can get a win at SAG this weekend or Critics Choice later on, it increases her viability with the Academy. If not, I doubt she gets her second Oscar.
My Case Of posts will continue with Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog…
My Case Of posts for the upcoming Oscars brings us to our first contestant in Supporting Actress and that’s Jessie Buckley in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Netflix drama The Lost Daughter.
The Case for Jessie Buckley:
She’s been an actress on the upswing especially since 2019’s Wild Rose earned her a BAFTA nod and some Academy chatter that never materialized. With recent appearances in other buzzy projects like I’m Thinking of Ending Things, HBO’s Chernobyl, and FX’s Fargo – Buckley could be exactly the kind of rising performer that the voters would honor.
The Case Against Jessie Buckley:
Buckley’s inclusion in the race was definitely a surprise and she got here without precursors like SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. Of the four acting derbies, this might be the easiest to predict and that’s for Ariana DeBose in West Side Story.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The glaring lack of precursors makes Buckley a major outsider with this first nomination. Luckily for her, it might not be her last.
The Case Of posts will continue with our first hopeful in Supporting Actor – Ciaran Hinds in Belfast…
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