Tag Archives: Bad Times at the El Royale

Box Office Predictions: October 19-21

Halloween looks to dominate the box office and slash all competition with a potentially record-setting opening. In order to do so, it would need to top the $80 million earned just days ago by Venom when it smashed the all-time October opening of all time. You can peruse my detailed prediction post in it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/09/halloween-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’ve got earning just north of $75 million. That puts it short of Venom, but easily at #2 as far as all-time debuts for the month (it only needs top the $55 million that Gravity took in five years ago). That shouldn’t be a problem at all.

While this weekend’s #1 pic is not in question, the holdover battle should be interesting as well. The Michael Myers appearance will likely made Venom lose at least half its audience and that could cause it to drop to third place after two weeks in first place. That means A Star Is Born should hold steady in second.

First Man had a rather lackluster debut (more on that below) and it hopes to experience a smallish decline in the low to mid 30s. If so, it should rank fourth with Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween not far behind.

The Hate U Give expands to approximately 2300 theaters after it’s performed well in limited fashion. I’ll put its gross at $6.7 million and that would leave it outside the top 5.

Here’s the top 5 predictions for the scary weekend ahead:

1. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $75.4 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

3. Venom

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

4. First Man

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (October 12-14)

Venom and A Star Is Born continued to rule the charts while all newcomers came in with rather lackluster returns. Marvel’s Venom repeated in first with $35 million in its second weekend, managing to top my $31.2 million estimate. The comic book based hit has amassed $142 million thus far.

A Star Is Born, as expected, held up well in its sophomore frame with $28.4 million (right in line with my $28.3 million projection). It’s about to join the century club after two weeks with $94 million currently.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was First Man, which failed to achieve liftoff in third with a disappointing $16 million, well below my $23.5 million take. Damien Chazelle’s Oscar hopeful with Ryan Gosling will hope for smallish declines, but this is unquestionably a letdown.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween couldn’t match its predecessor’s mid 20s start. It debuted in fourth with a mediocre $15.8 million compared to my $17.3 million prediction.

Smallfoot rounded out the top five with $9 million (I said $8.9 million) to bring its tally to $57 million.

Finally, Bad Times at the El Royale failed to generate many check-ins as it opened in seventh place with $7.1 million, a tad under my $8 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: October 12-14

A trio of newcomers open this weekend and face the considerable challenge of dislodging Venom and A Star Is Born from the top two spots. They are Damien Chazelle’s man on the moon tale First Man starring Ryan Gosling, family friendly sequel Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, and Drew Goddard’s pulpy thriller Bad Times at the El Royale. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/02/first-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/03/goosebumps-2-haunted-halloween/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/03/bad-times-at-the-el-royale-box-office-prediction/

My mid 20s estimate for First Man will likely put it in third place, unless the second helping of Goosebumps manages to exceed expectations. If not, that newbie should place fourth with mid to high teens.

I’m not expecting much from the El Royale, despite mostly positive reviews. I believe it may only manage sixth place behind the third weekend of Smallfoot.

As for #1, that could get interesting. Venom easily scored the best October debut of all time (more on that below) while A Star Is Born met expectations. The second weekend drop for them could be quite different. While Venom could dip 60% or more, Star could see a fall in the smaller range of 30-35%. Assuming First Man doesn’t surpass projections, this could set up a close battle for first place among the returnees.

And with that, a top 6 take on the weekend ahead:

1. Venom

Predicted Gross: $31.2 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. First Man

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million

4. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

5. Smallfoot

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

6. Bad Times at the El Royale

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (October 57)

Despite overwhelmingly negative reviews, comic book pic Venom with Tom Hardy obliterated the October opening record with $80.2 million. That gross exceeds the previous holder (Gravity) by nearly $25 million. It easily blew away my $62.5 million prediction. Even though a healthy drop seems probable this weekend, Sony has to be over the moon with this performance in a feature that is expected to start a franchise.

Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga’s Oscar contender A Star Is Born got off to a rousing beginning in second with $42.9 million. While this is a bit under my $48.6 million estimate, it’s already made back its budget and looks to leg out solidly over the next several weeks. Counting its Tuesday and Wednesday special previews, it’s made $44.2 million.

Smallfoot was third in weekend #2 with $14.4 million. I was close at $13.6 million. The animated feature has grossed $42 million overall.

Night School fell from first to fourth with $12.5 million (I said $12.7 million) for a two-week total of $46 million.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls rounded out the top five with $7.3 million, on pace with my $7 million forecast. It’s earned $55 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Bad Times at the El Royale Box Office Prediction

Director Drew Goddard follows up his cult hit The Cabin in the Woods next weekend with the thriller Bad Times at the El Royale. Set at a novelty hotel in the late 1960s that occupies space in California and Nevada, the cast includes Jeff Bridges, Cynthia Erivo, Dakota Johnson, Jon Hamm, Nick Offerman, Cailee Spaeny, and Chris Hemsworth.

Early reviews for Royale have been mostly positive and it currently occupies a 77% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Box office estimates I’ve seen have a wide range from low double digits to high ones.

While this is a project that cinephiles are excited for, I question whether this can break out with a mainstream audience. For starters, there’s competition in the form of the second weekend of Venom and A Star Is Born and the debut of First Man. Trailers and TV spots are a little murky as to what this is actually about. While there’s plenty of famous faces in the cast, I’m not sure any of them will help much in filling seats (even Thor himself).

Taking all that into account, I believe El Royale will premiere on the low-end of expectations and may even struggle to reach double digits.

Bad Times at the El Royale opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my First Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/02/first-man-box-office-prediction/

For my Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/03/goosebumps-2-haunted-halloween/