Tag: Avengers: Endgame Encore

October 2-4 Box Office Predictions

For the first time in nearly a decade, Tom Cruise headlines a picture that isn’t an action sequel via Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s satire Digger. Cruise and company will need to fend off a challenge from Verity, a psychological thriller based on Colleen Hoover’s novel starring the inescapable Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Digger Box Office Prediction
Verity Box Office Prediction

Truth be told, I think Ms. Hathaway easily holds the advantage. Verity should be able to bring in a decent (especially female) crowd familiar with the source material. Mid teens could be the floor though I have this in the mid 20s for a first place showing.

I would’ve pegged Digger for a similar start a couple of weeks back. However, reviews are subpar and this is not your typical Cruise content that audiences have grown accustomed to recently. My projection has steadily declined and my barely double digits forecast could put it anywhere from second place to fifth. That would be a disastrous kickoff for the satire with a $125 million budget.

Holdovers Avengers Endgame: Encore, Resident Evil, and Heart of the Beast may all be in the same range. I have #s 2-5 separated by a mere $2 million and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Verity

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

2. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $12 million

3. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Digger

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. Avengers Endgame: Encore

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (September 25-27)

Not long after Spider-Man relinquished the top spot, the MCU returned to #1 with the re-release (with some extra footage) of 2019’s Avengers: Endgame Encore. Meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, the epic comic book experience accomplished its mission and added $26.1 million to its coffers. That’s beyond my $22.6 million take as its domestic total ballooned to $884 million.

Resident Evil, after a terrific debut, slid to second with an understandable 62% dip to $23 million. I was on target with a $24 million prediction as the franchise reboot passed the century mark after ten days with $103 million.

Three newcomers filled with the rest of the top five with Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast in third. With a German Shepherd as his costar, the survival drama earned $20 million, surpassing my $16.8 million call. That gross would be more notable if not for its $80M+ budget, but it’s still at the high end of its anticipated range.

Primetime starring Robert Pattinson rode a wave of favorable buzz to $19.1 million in fourth compared to my $14.5 million prediction. Lots of audience members chose to have a seat for the A24 title which has a lowly $15 million price tag.

The news was not as positive for DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island. Despite fresh critical reaction, the family friendly tale was fifth with $13 million (I went higher at $17.2 million). It’ll hope for families to catch up in subsequent weekends though it’s undoubtedly a flat result.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 25-27 Box Office Predictions

As September closes out, the top 5 should consist of 80% fresh product with four titles primed to gross $10 million and higher. However, current champ Resident Evil could maintain first position. We have the re-release of the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame Encore, DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd in the survival tale Heart of the Beast, and Robert Pattinson headlining the biographical thriller Primetime. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction
Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction
Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction
Primetime Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with a caveat – this is an unpredictable frame. I believe all the newcomers have a shot at outperforming my forecasts. Avengers and Island, in particular, could exceed expectations and challenge for the top spot. My hunch is that, even with a 60% drop (fine for its genre), Resident Evil will maintain its #1 bragging rights with a mid-20s gross.

If I get the order of 2-5 right, I’ll be happy with myself. For the incoming quartet, I have all placing between $10-$20 million. With the advantage of following Spider-Man: Brand New Day and meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame return to theaters could approach the $20 million figure and I have it achieving runner-up status.

With solid reviews, Forgotten Island could be right behind in third or be second. The fact that it’s not based on known IP could be a hurdle for kiddos and parents to RSVP.

Pitt’s Beast, his first pic since last summer’s blockbuster F1, is also drawing decent critical reaction. Mid to high teens is certainly doable for a fourth place finish.

Primetime is perhaps the biggest unknown. With Pattinson as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, the trailer is buzzy as was reaction at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month. This might have more audience members seated than I’m estimating but my prognosis in the low teens has it rounding out the top five. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it fell between $8-13 million or even approached $20 million.

Here’s how I have this fascinating weekend shaking out:

1. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $24 million

2. Avengers: Endgame Encore

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. Forgotten Island

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

5. Primetime

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

Horror enthusiasts and gamers came out in droves for Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise. The well-reviewed eighth overall entry in the series boasted a $60.1 million premiere, managing to top my $55.8 million prediction. That more than doubles the previous best of the bunch – 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million and sets a personal best for the Weapons filmmaker.

Practical Magic 2 was second with a 60% fall in frame #2 as the witchy sequel made $12.1 million, in line with my $12.4 million take. Falling on the low end of its range, the two-week total is $50 million.

Summer holdovers populated slots 3-5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was third with $6.4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. Earlier in the week, Day surpassed 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the largest domestic grosser of all time at $944 million after eight weeks.

The Odyssey was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $4.6 million) as Christopher Nolan’s epic brought its tally to $609 million in ten weeks.

Finally, Coyote vs. Acme was fifth with $4.4 million, ahead of my $3.5 million projection for $54 million in four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction

Sporting an extra couple minutes of runtime from the 2019 original and primed to build anticipation for Doomsday, Disney/Marvel unveils Avengers: Endgame Encore on September 25th. The epic 22nd feature in the MCU is already the second highest grossing pic worldwide ever (behind Avatar) and would need a bit over $125 million globally to take the crown back.

The re-release immediately follows another record for the franchise. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just became the (unadjusted for inflation) #1 domestic earner of all time. Endgame, with its voluminous list of cast members from Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark to the Chris triumvirate (Evans, Hemsworth, Pratt) to Robert Redford’s final screen appearance and so many more, should benefit from being sandwiched between New Day and Doomsday.

Estimates have this making anywhere from late teens to late 20s. I’m going more on the lower end of that spectrum. That might put it in the mix for the top spot depending on the sophomore frame for Resident Evil.

Avengers: Endgame Encore opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my Heart of the Beast prediction, click here:

Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction

For my Forgotten Island prediction, click here:

Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction

For my Primetime prediction, click here:

Primetime Box Office Prediction