November 8-10 Box Office Predictions

It’s a busy weekend at the box office as four new titles enter the marketplace: Shining sequel Doctor Sleep, Paul Feig directed rom com Last Christmas, Roland Emmerich made WWII action pic Midway, and John Cena led family comedy Playing with Fire. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/29/doctor-sleep-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/30/last-christmas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/31/midway-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/31/playing-with-fire-box-office-prediction/

Barring a rather major over performance from Christmas, the #1 spot this weekend should go to Doctor Sleep. I’m putting right in its expected range of mid 20s. Reviews are solid though not spectacular and the horror pic may have trouble finding the youth audience that the genre typically depends on. The crowd is likely to skew a bit older due to the classic 1980 Kubrick film it’s following.

There is certainly a shot that Christmas celebrates a higher start than my mid teens projection, but the best hope could be for small drops in the weekends ahead.

Those two newbies seemed destined to hold the 1-2 positions as Terminator: Dark Fate had a dim start last weekend. While I don’t see it dropping in the plus 60s range like Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Men in Black International did over the summer, a mid 50s fall is feasible. That could put it in a close race for third with Midway in the low teens.

Harriet came in on the plus side of its expectations and I foresee a dip in the low to mid 30s. That could put it close to where I expect final newcomer Fire to hit and where the Maleficent: Mistress of Evil earnings are.

With all this activity, let’s expand that top five to eight, shall we?

1. Doctor Sleep 

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

2. Last Christmas 

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

3. Terminator: Dark Fate 

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Midway 

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. Joker

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

6. Playing with Fire 

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

7. Harriet 

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (November 1-3)

The reunification of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Linda Hamilton hit #1 as expected, but its premiere was a major disappointment. Dark Fate took in $29 million, well below forecasts (including my $38.1 million take). While that doesn’t quite mark the previous franchise low of 2015’s Genisys at $27 million (which actually hit low 40s in a five-day holiday rollout), it’s clear that the fate of this will be as a big financial loser domestically.

Joker was second with $13.5 million, a touch more than my $12.2 million prediction. Its total is an incredible $299 million.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was close behind in third with $13 million, reaching beyond my $10.2 million projection for an $85 million tally.

As mentioned, Harriet hit its mark (and might have saved Cynthia Erivo’s Oscar chances) with $11.6 million. I was lower at $8.2 million. Look for this to have smallish declines as it achieved an A+ Cinemascore grade.

The Addams Family rounded out the top five at $8.2 million (I said $7 million) for a snappy haul of $85 million.

The weekend’s other newbies both struggled at the bottom of the top ten. Motherless Brooklyn was ninth at just $3.5 million, in line with my $3.2 million prediction. The animated Arctic Dogs was a bad, bad performer in tenth with $2.9 million (less than my $4.5 million projection).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The November box office kicks off with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signature character back in theaters and three other newcomers vying for attention. In addition to Terminator: Dark Fate, we have the historical biopic Harriet, animated comedy Arctic Dogs, and Edward Norton’s period piece crime drama Motherless Brooklyn. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/22/terminator-dark-fate-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/26/harriet-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/arctic-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/motherless-brooklyn-box-office-prediction/

I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit that I don’t expect to place in the top five. Dogs comes from the upstart Entertainment Studios, which has no track record with family fare. My $4.5 million forecast reflects its lack of visibility among kiddos and their parents. Brooklyn was looked at as a potential awards contender before festival screenings and its mixed reaction killed that notion. Premiering in a smallish 1250 theaters, I’m projecting a meager $3.2 million.

There is little doubt that Dark Fate (reuniting the former California Governor with his Terminator 2: Judgment Day costars Linda Hamilton and Edward Furlong) will top the charts, but its range of possibility is the real question mark. My high 30s estimate gives it a so-so start that outdoes 2015 predecessor Genisys.

It was a photo finish last weekend between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker. However, even though Arnold serves as more direct competition for the latter, I expect Joker will experience a lower decline than Evil and maintain its #2 standing for the third frame in a row.

Like Brooklyn, Harriet also lost its hoped for Oscar luster once reviews came out. My mid single digits projection gives it a slight edge in fourth over The Addams Family.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Terminator: Dark Fate 

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

2. Joker

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Harriet 

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (October 25-27)

It doesn’t get much closer than this as Disney edged out Warner Bros for supremacy with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil clinging to #1 at $19.3 million, just under my $20.4 million prediction. The underperforming sequel stands at $66 million.

The supremely over performing Joker was second with $19.2 million, just over my $18.6 million projection for a tally of $277 million.

The Addams Family held up well and placed third with $12 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $73 million.

Just behind in fourth and dropping hard in weekend #2 was Zombieland: Double Tap with $11.8 million. I went higher at $13.8 million. The two week earnings are $47 million.

The weekend’s highest newcomer was horror pic Countdown, rounding out the top five with $8.8 million (not hitting my $10.3 million take).

Black and Blue was sixth, premiering with $8.3 million. I didn’t give it enough credit with my $4.8 million estimate.

Finally, the long delayed The Current War was ninth with a dim $2.6 million. It did manage to build upon my $1.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… I’ll be back!

Arctic Dogs Box Office Prediction

Entertainment Studios is hoping that family audiences warm to their animated comedy Arctic Dogs next weekend. Budgeted at around $50 million, it risks being a costly flop. From director Aaron Woodley, Dogs voice cast includes Jeremy Renner (who’s been experiencing bad publicity involved with his personal life), Heidi Klum, James Franco, John Cleese, Omar Sy, Michael Madsen, Laurie Holden, Anjelica Huston, and Alec Baldwin (pulling double duty with new releases along with Motherless Brooklyn).

The pic marks the first animated effort from the relatively new studio, which has only found success with its 47 Meters Down shark tales. I suspect they won’t find much profitability with these talking animals.

Double digits seems like an impossibility here and it could struggle to reach $5 million.

Arctic Dogs opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million

For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/22/terminator-dark-fate-box-office-prediction/

For my Motherless Brooklyn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/motherless-brooklyn-box-office-prediction/

For my Harriet prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/26/harriet-box-office-prediction/