Oscar Predictions – Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

On the eve of its premiere, the embargo for Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody finally lifted. For those not familiar, waiting until December 21st for critics to weigh in is not a good sign for awards possibilities. The biopic comes from Kasi Lemmons, who last directed Cynthia Erivo to a Best Actress nod for 2019’s Harriet. Then there’s the screenwriter Anthony McCarten. He’s a bit of an awards whisperer. His screenplays for 2014’s The Theory of Everything, 2017’s Darkest Hour, and 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody resulted in Best Actor victories for (respectively) Eddie Redmayne, Gary Oldman, and Rami Malek.

That’s why I was a tad surprised that Somebody was MIA at film festivals and that there were no early reviews to generate buzz. Now it makes more sense. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 41%. That said, some write-ups are singing the praises of Naomi Ackie as the iconic and troubled legend. I don’t think it would’ve been impossible for Ackie to make the five in Best Actress. At this juncture, only Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) have guaranteed spots in my opinion. Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans and Danielle Deadwyler for Till are probably in as well. The fifth slot could be Margot Robbie (Babylon), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), or a surprise.

It is probably too late for Ackie to be a factor. The Critics Choice and Globes skipped her and the Academy is unlikely to make her queen of the night. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my prediction from $14.5 million to $11.5 million

Sony Pictures is hoping audiences wanna run to Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody when its drops December 23rd. The biopic of the legendary late singer stars Naomi Ackie as the title character with Stanley Tucci, Ashton Sanders, Tamara Tunie, Nafessa Williams, and Clarke Peters among the supporting cast. Kasi Lemmons (who last made the 2019 biopic Harriet) directs. Anthony McCarten wrote the screenplay. He’s no stranger to the genre having scripted The Theory of Everything, Darkest Hour and Bohemian Rhapsody.

Just last week, the film’s name was expanded to add “Whitney Houston” in front of one of her signature tunes. Perhaps Sony was nervous that awareness wasn’t high enough for the project. The marketing campaign doesn’t seem quite as robust as it could be. Its review embargo has yet to lift and Somebody skipped the autumn festival circuit. McCarten’s aforementioned works resulted in Oscar wins for stars Eddie Redmayne (Theory), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), and Rami Malek (Rhapsody). Ackie has yet to show up anywhere in the Academy’s precursors.

Even with the somewhat muted buzz, I still believe African-American and especially female viewers should turn out. This might result in a low teens beginning for the three-day gross.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million (REVISED)

For my Puss in Boots: The Last Wish prediction, click here:

For my Babylon prediction, click here:

The Two Popes Movie Review

The Two Popes volleys back and forth between light and dark tonal shifts, but is benefited greatly from moments of divine inspiration by its two leads. At its base, the film is about one man replacing another for a job. It just happens that this occupational transition involves taking over the Catholic Church and that impacts over a billion followers worldwide. The transfer of the Papacy from 2013 was a nearly unprecedented event as a sitting Pope hadn’t resigned in over 700 years. The screenplay here from Andrew McCarten imagines the potential talks that could have happened behind giant Vatican doors between the outgoing Pope Benedict XVI (Anthony Hopkins) and the current Cardinal Bergoglio and soon to be Pope Francis (Jonathan Pryce). Both men’s crises of faith are explored in dramatic ways, but they also eat pizza, talk music, and take in a soccer match while the weighty stuff is happening.

This gorgeously edited version of history from director Fernando Meirelles takes us behind the scenes of two conclaves and the Sistine Chapel as the church is experiencing various scandals. The death of Pope John Paul II in 2005 posits the question of whether the Catholic upper echelon should move in a different direction. German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger represents the old guard while Argentinian Cardinal Bergoglio advocates for a different and more inclusive approach. The old guard prevails for years until Benedict contemplates the unthinkable act of renouncing the position.

The picture is mostly a two-man show that would probably work well as a stage play. It’s an excuse for Pryce (who bears a very passing resemblance to Francis) and Hopkins to have lengthy conversations about flagging faith and the pristine halls of power. And because these two leaders are human, after all, even contemporary subjects like ABBA and the Beatles come up. Hopkins is no stranger to portraying figures staring down the prospect of abdicating the throne (he did so in alternative fashion in Oliver Stone’s potent Nixon).

Like that film, the use of flashbacks is incorporated for context into the protagonist’s background. That character here is Bergoglio and the makers of The Two Popes are clearly in his corner with his focus on the poor and the environment. Yet the often humorous script is sympathetic to Benedict as he ponders his momentous choice. Juan Minujin plays the future Francis from a young priest hearing the call of his Father to a more seasoned one grappling with political upheaval in his native country. These sections are more hit or miss. They’re perhaps a little less involving because we want to get back to the master class of acting courtesy of Pryce and Hopkins. These two veterans make this well worth the price of the Netflix streaming admission.

*** (out of four)

Bohemian Rhapsody Movie Review

Bryan Singer’s Bohemian Rhapsody hits many familiar notes and plot points as it explores the great showman that was Freddie Mercury and his iconic band Queen. There’s strain in his family – his actual one and the one that consists of his band mates. There’s the rise to fame and corruption of it. We have relationships strained to the point of apparent breakdown before reconciliation. Truth be told, many of these story arcs are so well-worn that you may feel you already know the words to them in the screenplay before they’re spoken.

However, it manages to succeed in a couple of meaningful ways. More than most music biopics, Rhapsody often captures the sheer magic that was Mercury. In the performance of Rami Malek, we have more than a fine impersonation (with the assistance of fake teeth). His work here captures the magnetism that Queen’s front man had. Additionally, the film builds its tale around their music that culminates in a Live Aid set that plays like a phoenix rising through the ashes.

We first meet the awkward looking Freddie handling luggage at Heathrow in London. He’s shy to a point, but also brimming with confidence in his vocal abilities as he rightly should. Freddie takes advantage of a lead singer opening in the band Smile and dubs it Queen. The rest, as they say, is history.

Regarding that history, Rhapsody has taken its licks for alternating some of the band’s timeline and events. It’s fair criticism, but the aim here is more of a celebration of the tracks that Mercury, Brian Ferry (Gwilym Lee, who nails the guitarist’s look and stance), Roger Taylor (Ben Hardy), and John Deacon (Joseph Mazzello) create. Segments are featured around the title track, “We Will Rock You”, and “Another One Bites the Dust”. Freddie’s relationship with Mary (Lucy Boynton) is chronicled through the creation of “Love of My Life”. She’s his one-time fiancee who realizes his homosexuality perhaps before he does. Yet their bond is stronger than the physical.

The screenplay from Anthony McCarten also delves into the group’s business dealings. There’s a cheeky scene about the release of “Rhapsody” that allows Mike Myers (as a very 1970s looking record exec) to reference his famous head banging scene in Wayne’s World. We see the hangers-on that nearly deep six the band. Contrary to early reports, we do glimpse Freddie’s promiscuity and substance abuse and eventual AIDS diagnosis.

It’s not the movie’s nature to go too far down that rabbit hole. If you are expecting that, you may walk away disappointed. I walked away impressed by its achievement in capturing what made Freddie and his musical family so special. I didn’t walk away sensing any of the well-publicized behind the scenes drama that resulted in director Singer being replaced well into the shooting schedule by Dexter Fletcher. And I certainly left marveling at Malek’s commitment in bringing Freddie to the screen, with the loud and gorgeous sounds of his live performance in front of a billion plus people ringing in my ears.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Darkest Hour

My recent Oscar Watch posts have largely focused on the Venice Film Festival (and there’s more posts from that fest coming your way shortly), but the Telluride Film Festival is also underway and it premiered Joe Wright’s eagerly awaited Darkest Hour. 

The film casts Gary Oldman as British Prime Minister Winston Churchill during WWII and the actor has been considered a Best Actor front runner for some time already. The Telluride screening all but confirms that notion with Oldman drawing raves for his performance. Crazily enough, with the lead’s three decade long sterling career, he’s only managed one Academy nod for 2011’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It’s safe to say that this will land him his second as Variety deemed him the instant favorite.

While Oldman’s nomination has always seemed likely, initial reaction also puts Darkest in line for potential Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (Anthony McCarten) nods and some down the line technical categories. Interestingly, it’s Ben Mendelsohn’s supporting work that’s garnered notice and not Kristin Scott Thomas, who now seems a bit of a long shot for Supporting Actress.

Bottom line: Darkest reaction sheds light on several potential nominations, but Oldman’s seems assured.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…