On a weekend where the eyes of box office forecasters are trained on the debuts of Wicked and Gladiator II, Angel Studios will attempt to find an audience with Bonhoeffer. The historical drama is directed by Todd Komarnicki with Jonas Dassler playing the anti-Nazi dissident title character. Costars include August Diehl, David Jonsson, Flula Borg, Moritz Bleibtreu, and Clarke Peters.
Last summer, the film’s distributor found massive and unexpected success in the form of Sound of Freedom. Since then, their openings have been quieter. That includes After Death ($5.1 million), The Shift ($4.4 million), Cabrini ($7.2 million), and Sight ($2.8 million).
If this manages to reach $4 million, that should be enough to put it in fourth place. That’s exactly where I’m putting it.
The closeout of May and dawn of June at the box office will be even rougher than the Memorial Day weekend… and that weekend was rough at multiplexes (more on that below). The anime sports pic Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle is the only significant new release as it aims for a top five showing where the #1 pic could struggle to top double digits. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:
With my mid single digits projection (it could go higher), I have Dumpster placing fifth.
There could be a photo finish for #1 after a frame in which the new holiday pictures bombed. I have Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga falling in the high 50s after its poor performance and The Garfield Movie dipping over 50%. That might give the tabby cat the (not exactly) bragging rights in 1st.
IF should hold in third with a smaller decline than the sophomore weekend competitors. Heck, it could contend for the top spot if Furiosa and Garfield go downhill even more. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is likely to hold in fourth and here’s how I have it all playing out:
1. The Garfield Movie
Predicted Gross: $12 million
2. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. IF
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (May 24-27)
And now to the dumpster fire that just happened. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga managed to be first with $32.3 million over the Friday to Monday four-day expanded frame. That’s well below what predecessor Fury Road achieved some nine years ago and way under my $47.2 million prediction. **Please note that my percentage drops listed above are for the three-day Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend where this earned just $26.3 million.
The Garfield Movie also debuted on the lowest end of its anticipated range in second with $31.2 million compared to my $41.5 million take. Its B+ Cinemascore grade is subpar for a family feature (IF got an A) and I’m skeptical its legs will be sturdy.
IF fell to third in weekend #2 with $22.3 million, a tad ahead of my $20.6 million call. The two-week tally is $64 million.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $17.6 million (I said $18 million) as it inched up to $127 million. This is really the only significant success story of the summer thus far… or at least it’s generally performing in line with expectations.
The Fall Guy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million. I went lower at $5.8 million, but it’s only up to $74 million after four weeks.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 was sixth with $7 million (I said $5.6 million) as the low budget horror sequel is at $22 million.
Finally, Sight from Angel Studios struggled for eyeballs with $3.7 million in seventh. I thought it might get more with $5.3 million.
After an iffy start to the summer cinematic season, the industry hopes business heats up over Memorial Day weekend. We have George Miller’s franchise prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga looking to lead the way with the animated The Garfield Movie angling to post a strong second place showing. There’s also the faith-based biopic Sight from Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
With mostly laudatory reviews (though not on the level of predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road), I’m estimating that Furiosa gets just under $50 million over the extended Friday to Monday frame. That would put in right in line with expectations.
Same goes for Chris Pratt’s vocal work as that orange tabby cat in The Garfield Movie. My low 40s forecast gives it a runner-up debut as this hopes to bring family audiences in for the next few weeks.
Speaking of families, they turned out on the lower end of the anticipated range for IF (more on that below). It was still a rather decent opening, but the competition from Garfield could sting a little. I still think manages a tad over $20 million for the holiday.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes should slide from 2nd to 4th in the mid teens to high teens region while slots 5-7 could be awfully close between The Fall Guy, Sight, and The Strangers: Chapter 1.
Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these figures are for Friday through Monday:
1. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Predicted Gross: $47.2 million
2. The Garfield Movie
Predicted Gross: $41.5 million
3. IF
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $18 million
5. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
6. The Strangers: Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
7. Sight
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (May 17-19)
As mentioned, John Krasinski’s IF with Ryan Reynolds certainly didn’t over perform and came in with a fine but unremarkable $33.7 million. I thought it would get a bit more with $38.3 million. The A Cinemascore grade could mean its legs will be sturdy. That said, competition will be fierce.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was second after a muscular opening last weekend with $25.4 million, just outdoing my $23.6 million prediction. The two-week total is $100 million.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 managed (barely) the largest horror unveiling of 2024 with a better than expected $11.8 million estimate. Considering its reported teensy budget, that’s a solid number and ahead of my $9.1 million call.
The Fall Guy fell to fourth with $8.3 million, in line with my $8 million projection. The three-week gross is $62 million.
Challengers rounded out the top five in weekend #4 and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. It has made $43 million overall.
They tried to make the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black a hit, but audiences said no (no no). It flopped in sixth with a mere $2.8 million compared to my more hopeful $4.5 million prediction.
Angel Studios is hoping for more holiday luck in the form of Sight over the Memorial Day frame. Terry Chen stars as real-life figure Ming Wang, a Chinese immigrant who became a well-known eye surgeon in the United States. Andrew Wyatt directs. The supporting cast includes Greg Kinnear, Danni Wang, Raymond Ma, Bennet Wang, Jayden Zhang, Wai Ching Ho, and Fionnula Flanagan.
Last summer, the aforementioned distributor scored a major summer surprise via Sound of Freedom. Over the extended six-day July 4th weekend, it debuted to over $40 million with an eventual $184 million domestic total.
Follow-ups have brought in considerably less coin for Angel, which specialize in dramas with faith-based leanings. Last October, After Death premiered with just over $5 million. In December, The Shift came in with a little less than $5 million. Cabrini in March started with a tad over $7 million.
I’m eyeballing a similar prescription for Sight and maybe a little less comparatively. With an extra day of grosses, I think it gets over $5 million though not by much.
Sight opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:
Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.
Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.
The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.
Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.
Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:
1. Kung Fu Panda4
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $29.4 million
3. Arthur the King
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
4. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
6. Love Lies Bleeding
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (March 8-10)
DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.
Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.
In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.
Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.
Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.
Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.
If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.
Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.
That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.
Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $40.7 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
3. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 1-3)
I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.
After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.
Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.
Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.
Angel Studios is hoping that audiences of the faith-based variety flock to Cabrini this weekend. The tale of Italian immigrants in late 19th century New York comes from Alejandro Monteverde, who made the unexpected smash hit Sound of Freedom for the aforementioned production company last summer. Cristiana Dell’Anna stars in the title role of the real life eventual saint. Costars include David Morse, Romana Maggiora, Federico Iepali, Virginia Bocelli, Rolando Villazón, Giancarlo Giannini, and John Lithgow.
Early reviews are of the thumbs up variety with a 96% RT rating. As mentioned, the studio broke out in a major way with Freedom, which grossed an astonishing $184 million. This was assisted by a unique pay it forward marketing strategy. Angel follow-ups haven’t gotten anywhere near those numbers. October’s After Death took in just over $5 million for its start while December’s The Shift premiered to $4.4 million.
I will readily admit that I’m playing a guessing game with Cabrini. I haven’t seen a theater count and my estimate could shift when I do. A Catholic contingent could get this to higher figures than I’m about to project. Faith-based titles in general certainly have the ability to exceed expectations. It could also start out slow and hold well in subsequent weekends with Easter approaching. This might hit $10 million or even post a larger gross I’m not envisioning. $5 million is also possible. I’ll go higher single digits, but keep an eye on this post to see if I change it up or down before Friday.
Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million. I’m also lowering my Renaissance prediction from $8.9M to $7.6M and raising my Hunger Games estimates from $7.8M to $8.6M. This dramatically alters my previous top five.
Before some high profile holiday releases are unwrapped, it should be a quiet weekend at the box office as Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is the only significant newcomer. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
We may not see any picture top $10 million in this sleepy frame. Beyoncé may manage to rule the charts for a second time even though I have Renaissance having a sophomore slide in the high 50s. A gross approaching $9 million should keep it ahead of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (which should fall in the mid 40s).
After an impressive debut, Godzilla Minus One should stay in third with Trolls Band Together remaining in fourth. I have Heron rounding out the top five, just ahead of Disney’s dud Wish.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
2. The Boy and the Heron
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
4. Godzilla Minus One
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (December 1-3)
Audiences might not have been crazy in love with Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé to the level of Taylor Swift’s tour feature, but it opened in line with its anticipated range. Premiering in first, the acclaimed concert pic started with $21.8 million. That’s on pace with my $20.7 million take.
The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes slid to second with $14.1 million in its third outing, just ahead of my $13.1 million call. The franchise prequel is up to $120 million.
In a weekend with many debuts, Godzilla Minus One achieved the largest one at $11.4 million. The Japanese was third with $11.4 million, well ahead of my $7.6 million projection. This is especially impressive since it’s making most of its green overseas.
Trolls Band Together was fourth with $7.8 million (I said $8.5 million) as the three-week total is $75 million.
Disney’s Wish tumbled a steep 61% for fifth in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was more generous at $9.3 million. The two-week tally is a troubling $42 million.
The second weekend plummet was even higher for Napoleon in sixth. It was down 65% to $7.2 million compared to my $9.2 million forecast. The overall gross is $45 million.
Newcomers filled the 7-9 spots. Hindi-language action flick Animal exceeded my expectations in seventh with $6.4 million. I said $4 million.
Sci-fi tale The Shift from Angel Studios was eighth with $4.6 million. That’s in line with my expectations at $4.3 million.
John Woo’s Silent Night was quiet in ninth with $3 million. That’s below my expectations as I went with $5 million.
Lastly, Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving was tenth with $2.6 million, a tad under my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $28 million.
November closed out at the box office with an unpredictable Thanksgiving frame where I had the entirety of the top four in the wrong spots. The head scratching will continue as December arrives with a quintet of newcomers (four of which could post very similar earnings). We have the concert pic Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, Japanese monster mash Godzilla Minus One, John Woo’s dialogue free action thriller Silent Night, sci-fi drama The Shift from Angel Studios, and Hindi-language shoot-em-up Animal. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:
Beyoncé’s tour doc might be the only new entry in the top five. While it shouldn’t approach the near $100M out of the gate that Taylor Swift accomplished, a mid to high 20s output would firmly put it in first position.
It is common to see hefty drops after the Turkey Day weekend and that should apply to the leftovers. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (after surprisingly staying at #1 over the holiday) should slide to second with a mid 50s decline.
After that… it’s a crapshoot. Any of the newcomers could post better figures than my calls. However, I have all four making between $5-8 million and each falling outside the top five.
That’s because Napoleon, Wish, and Trolls Band Together may all flirt with $10 million. I’ve got the trio falling under that for a close finish between 3-5.
With all the newbies, I’ll expand to a top ten outlook and here’s how I see it:
1. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
2. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. Wish
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
4. Napoleon
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Trolls World Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
6. Godzilla Minus One
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. Silent Night
Predicted Gross: $5 million
8. The Shift
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Animal
Predicted Gross: $4 million
10. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (November 24-26)
In one of the most unexpected upsets in recent memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes had a far better than anticipated sophomore hold to rather easily take the holiday weekend. The franchise prequel eased a mere 35% for $29 million from Friday to Sunday, surpassing my $20.3 million projection with flying colors. The ten-day take is now $98 million.
Ridley Scott’s bio-epic Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix was second as it slightly rose above forecasts. It made $20.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $32.7 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. That’s ahead of my respective $18.2 million and $28.5 million takes. With a weak B- Cinemascore grade, it may fade rather quickly.
After the massive flop that was The Marvels, the news didn’t get better for the Mouse House as the animated Wish was granted a tepid start in third. With ho-hum reviews, the Disney title fell far short of hopes with $19.6 million over the three-day and $31.6 million since Wednesday. I (along with most others) predicted a first place showing and had it at $32.2 million and $46.4 million. Ouch.
Trolls Band Together, in weekend two, was fourth with $17.8 million. I was more generous at $22.6 million and the DreamWorks Animated sequel has made $64 million after ten days.
Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving capitalized on that title with a fifth place slot and $7 million (I said $6.5 million). The ten-day tally is a respectable $24 million, especially since it comes with a low budget.
Angel Studios has had a heavenly 2023 with the massive success of Sound of Freedom over the summer and the recent better than anticipated debut of the documentary After Death. They’ll try to replicate the good tidings with The Shift on December 1st. The low-budget sci-fi pic is directed by Brock Heasley with a cast led by Kristoffer Polaha, Neal McDonough, Elizabeth Tabish, Rose Reid, and Sean Astin.
This is not expected to come anywhere the bounty that Freedom brought in. It earned $40 million over an extended Fourth of July frame on its way to a $184 million domestic haul. The Shift, at the high end of its range, could make a fourth or fifth of that for starters. At the low end, it might premiere to a tenth of that figure.
Fair warning: I’ve underestimated both aforementioned Angel titles this year. If it made close to $10 million, I wouldn’t be surprised. $4-5 million is also feasible.
The Shift opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million
For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé prediction, click here:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 