Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions asweekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.
Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.
That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.
Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.
As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.
Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:
1. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $57 million
2. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
3. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
4. Michael
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. The Breadwinner
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
Box Office Results (May 22-25)
The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.
Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.
Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.
The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.
Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.
Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.
Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.
StudioCanal’s Pressure hopes to serve as counterprogramming for adult filmgoers when it lands in theaters May 29th. Focused on the lead-up to D-Day, the World War II drama stars Andrew Scott as Captain James Stagg and Brendan Fraser as then General Dwight D. Eisenhower. The supporting cast includes Kerry Condon, Chris Messina, and Damian Lewis.
I’m a little surprised the distributor didn’t opt to open this over the Memorial Day weekend. Perhaps they thought competition was too much. It is reported that the screen count is approximately 1800 next weekend and that’s low for a summer release.
Last year’s Nuremberg debuted on around 1800 and made just shy of $4 million out of the gate. That might be Pressure‘s initial frame is pointed and I’ll give it a bit over.
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.
In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.
As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.
My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.
We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.
And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.
So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.
When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.
You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Fjord
6. No One Cares
7. All of a Sudden
8. Fatherland
9. The Social Reckoning
10. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew
12. A Place in Hell
13. A Long Winter
14. The Entertainment System is Down
15. Being Heumann
16. Cry to Heaven
17. Josephine
18. Werwulf
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20. Michael
21. Paper Tiger
22. Saturn Return
23. Sense and Sensibility
24. Jack of Spades
25. Behemoth!
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
5.Cristian Mingiu, Fjord
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down
12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf
15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares
4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
8. Mason Reeves, Josephine
9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
11. Sandra Hüller, Rose
12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return
15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares
4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Digger
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning
12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
13. Gemma Chan, Josephine
14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey
9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter
11. Jesse Plemons, Digger
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine
13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa
14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.
For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Harry Melling, Pillion
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
I Swear
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – It Was Just an Accident
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Animated Film
Arco
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba– The Movie: Infinity Castle
KPop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Ocean with David Attenborough
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andrivka
Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Casting
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sirāt
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Cinematography
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Editing
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – F1
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Production Design
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
The Lost Bus
Superman
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later
Ballad of a Small Player
The Ballad of Wallis Island
The Choral
Die, My Love
Hamnet
H is for Hawk
I Swear
Pillion
Warfare
Alternate – Steve
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
My Father’s Shadow
Ocean with David Attenborough
Pillion
Urchin
Wasteman
Alternate – The Ceremony
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco
Grow
How to Train Your Dragon
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Hamnet, Sinners
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Pillion
4 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons
After months of prognosticating and scores of individual prediction posts pontificating on the Oscar chances of various motion pictures, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be unveiled early Thursday morning.
The window for Academy members to make their picks just ended Friday and it could all be about momentum. Movies like The Secret Agent and Frankenstein seem to have it while it’s possible that It Was Just an Accident and especially mega-sequels Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash have lost it.
My ranked predictions are done. Below you will find my FINAL picks for all feature-length categories along with runner-up and second runner-up selections.
I will note that, last year, I went 9 for 10 in my Best Picture forecast and 4 for 5 in Director. Somewhat shockingly, I managed to go 20 for 20 in the acting derbies and 89 for 105 overall. Here’s how I envision Thursday morning shaking out and you can count on a recap post with how I performed that evening. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Runner-Up: Sirāt
Second Runner-Up: F1
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Second Runner-Up: Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Runner-Up: Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Second Runner-Up: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Runner-Up: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Second Runner-Up: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Second Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Second Runner-Up: Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Runner-Up: Sorry, Baby
Second Runner-Up: Weapons
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Runner-Up: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Second Runner-Up: No Other Choice
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
Runner-Up: Left-Handed Girl
Second Runner-Up: The Voice of Hind Rajab
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: In Your Dreams
Second Runner-Up: Endless Cookie
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Cover-Up
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andrivka
Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution
Second Runner-Up: Come See Me in the Good Light
BEST CASTING
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Second Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Runner-Up: Marty Supreme
Second Runner-Up: F1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: Hedda
Second Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
BEST FILM EDITING
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
Second Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Second Runner-Up: The Ugly Stepsister
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Runner-Up: Marty Supreme
Second Runner-Up: F1
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Runner-Up: “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
Second Runner-Up: “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Second Runner-Up: Avatar: Fire and Ash
BEST SOUND
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
Second Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: Sinners
Second Runner-Up: The Lost Bus
And that means I’m predicting that these movies will end up with these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
10 Nominations
Frankenstein, Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
The Secret Agent
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Sirāt
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.
So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)
14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)
10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The President’s Cake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)
10. DemonSlayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)
Bst Cinematography
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Sirāt
No Other Choice
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Drive” from F1
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Hedda
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilties:
6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Sirāt
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.
We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordanin Sinners.
On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.
It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.
The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.
Let’s take a look at all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)
9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Boys Go to Jupiter
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Blue Moon
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
28 Years Later
Weapons
Wolf Man
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
The Testament of Ann Lee
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Mickey 17
How to Train Your Dragon
And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).
One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.
At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?
My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.
In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Lost in Starlight
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deaf President Now!
Cutting Through Rocks
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Bugonia
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
8 Nominations
Frankenstein
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.
That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.
Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.
I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.
In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.
Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ne Zha 2
Animal Farm
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tale of Silyan
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
7 Nominations
Frankenstein
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
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