Tag: Andrew Garfield

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!

The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.

As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.

Let’s go to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Silence (PR: 3)

4) Fences (PR: 4)

5) Moonlight (PR: 5)

6) Loving (PR: 6)

7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

8) Lion (PR: 11)

9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10) Arrival (PR: 13)

11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)

12) Jackie (PR: 12)

13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14) Sully (PR: 16)

15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)

16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)

17) Allied (PR: 19)

18) Passengers (PR: 17)

19) Live by Night (PR: 25)

20) The Founder (PR: 21)

21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)

23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)

DROPPED OUT:

American Pastoral, Moana, Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)

5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)

11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)

12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)

7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)

8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)

9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)

12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)

4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)

14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)

15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)

13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

John Legend, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)

10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)

11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)

12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)

15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)

Dropped Out:

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) La La Land (PR: 3)

2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3) Moonlight (PR: 2)

4) Loving (PR: 4)

5) Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8) The Lobster (PR: 8)

9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

10) Zootopia (PR: 11)

11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)

13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Passengers (PR: 13)

15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Founder

Gold

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences (PR: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

4) Silence (PR: 4)

5) Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Arrival (PR: 8)

7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8) Sully (PR: 12)

9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

10) Elle (PR: 11)

11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

12) Live by Night (PR: 13)

13) Denial (PR: 14)

14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Pastoral

And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 8th Edition

As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.

Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1) La Land Land

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Silence

4) Fences

5) Moonlight

6) Loving

7) Manchester by the Sea

8) Nocturnal Animals

9) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

10) The Birth of a Nation

11) Lion

12) Jackie

13) Arrival

14) 20th Century Women

15) Hidden Figures

16) Sully

17) Passengers

18) Hell or High Water

19) Allied

20) Moana

21) The Founder

22) The Jungle Bok

23) Collateral Beauty

24) Gold

25) Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence

4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

5) Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival

11) Garth Davis, Lion

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie

15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Denzel Washington, Fences

2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving

4) Michael Keaton, The Founder

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Other Possibilities:

6) Tom Hanks, Sully

7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

9) Dev Patel, Lion

10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Viola Davis, Fences

3) Natalie Portman, Jackie

4) Ruth Negga, Loving

5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Other Possibilities:

6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

9) Amy Adams, Arrival

10) Rooney Mara, Una

11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

15) Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2) Liam Neeson, Silence

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

10) Timothy Spall, Denial

11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

13) John Legend, La La Land

14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully

15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Other Possibilities:

6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

9) Nicole Kidman, Lion

10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars

15) Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) Moonlight

3) La La Land

4) Loving

5) Jackie

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women

7) Hell or High Water

8) The Lobster

9) The Birth of a Nation

10) The Founder

11) Zootopia

12) Gold

13) Passengers

14) Rules Don’t Apply

15) Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Nocturnal Animals

4) Silence

5) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

6) Lion

7) Hidden Figures

8) Arrival

9) Love & Friendship

10) The Girl on the Train

11) Elle

12) Sully

13) Live by Night

14) Denial

15) The Jungle Book

And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…

Oscar Watch: Hacksaw Ridge

It’s been a decade since Mel Gibson has been behind the camera with Apocalypto and these last 10 years have been bumpy ones for the Braveheart Oscar winner. He’s been the subject of controversies and tabloid fodder. His screen appearances have been primarily limited to B movie action flicks of varying quality.

Yet the Venice Film Festival has vaulted him back into the Oscar race with Hacksaw Ridge, his World War II drama which has screened to positive buzz and some sterling reviews. It stars Andrew Garfield, Vince Vaughn, Sam Worthington, Hugo Weaving, Teresa Palmer, and Rachel Griffiths. The Lionsgate release hits screens stateside in November.

Some of the reaction for Hacksaw has used the C word in describing it for Gibson. As in Comeback. Whether or not Academy voters are willing to overlook his personal life and past transgressions and nominate it for Picture or Director is very much an open question. Even with its solid notices, I have Hacksaw currently on the outside looking in. If the film hits with audiences in two months, that dynamic could change.

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day #4 of my first 2016 Oscar predictions brings us to Best Actor and in the past two years, even these incredibly early predictions yielded positive results. My 2014 late August/early September Actor predictions gave us four of the five nominees and in 2015 – three.

We start with Michael Keaton. He just missed out on a win in 2014 for Birdman and has had the distinction of appearing in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). It’s likely he’ll receive buzz for this December’s The Founder, in which he plays Ray Kroc – inventor of the McDonald’s franchise.

Denzel Washington both stars and directs in Fences, based on an acclaimed play. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and it could be time to hear his name called again.

Casey Affleck has received raves for Manchester by the Sea. Same goes for Joel Edgerton in Jeff Nichols’ Loving. Readers of the previous posts in the Supporting races know that Moonlight looks to make some noise this season and that could extend to its star Trevante Rhodes.

Same goes for La La Land, which could mean a second nomination (ten years after Half Nelson) for Ryan Gosling. There’s Joe Alwyn in the title role of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the latest from double Oscar winner Ang Lee. Woody Harrelson plays the 36th President in LBJ. Double Oscar winner Tom Hanks is Sully. And so on and so on (I’ve even listed Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool as a possibility… even though it’s extremely unlikely).

This finally brings us to Nate Parker, director, writer, and star of The Birth of a Nation, which received raves on the festival circuit earlier this year. It is impossible to know right now how his recent publicity due to a years old rape charge (in which he acquitted)  and the suicide of the alleged victim plays out in the minds of voters. For now, I do not have him being nominated. Whether that’s because of the serious competition or other reasons is a factor that is sure to be discussed as the nominations draw closer.

Here’s how I have this initial round shaking out:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Michael Keaton, The Founder

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Andrew Garfield, Silence

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Hanks, Sully

Woody Harrelson, LBJ

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake

Joseph Gordon Levitt, Snowden

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Dev Patel, Lion

Brad Pitt, Allied

Chris Pratt, Passengers

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Michael Shannon, Midnight Special

Will Smith, Collateral Beauty

Miles Teller, Bleed for This

We’ll hit Best Director tomorrow and then Best Picture!

Oscar History: 2010

In my ongoing series of Oscar History posts, we arrive at what happened during the year 2010. This was quite a strong year for movies and, unlike other years, I can’t really quibble with the ten pictures that were nominated.

I can, however, differ with what won: Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. While this was a very solid and entertaining picture, I would have definitely put at least three of the other nominees above it: Black Swan, Inception, and my favorite of the year, The Social Network. Other nominees were 127 Hours, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone. 

Picture/Director matched up as Tom Hooper’s work in King’s Speech would win over Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), and David O. Russell (The Fighter). I may have found a spot for Christopher Nolan’s visually striking work in Inception. 

The love for The King’s Speech continued in Best Actor as Colin Firth was honored for his portrayal as King George VI. He triumphed over Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), and James Franco (127 Hours). It’s worth noting that Franco co-hosted the Oscars that year with Anne Hathaway. It wasn’t too memorable.

While his supporting players were showered with love, Mark Wahlberg was snubbed for his anchoring performance in The Fighter. Others worthy of mention: Leonardo DiCaprio in either Inception or Shutter Island and Robert Duvall for Get Low.

Natalie Portman was a bit of a no-brainer pick for her tour de force work in Black Swan in the Actress race, beating out Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).

I was a little surprised to see Bening’s Kids lead costar Julianne Moore left out. Franco’s co-host Anne Hathaway would’ve been a solid choice for her fine work in Love and Other Drugs. The Oscar voters rarely honor comedy, but they could have here with Emma Stone in her hit Easy A, as well.

Supporting Actor honored Christian Bale as Mark Wahlberg’s drug addicted brother in The Fighter. The other nominees were John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech).

I might have found room for either Andrew Garfield or Justin Timberlake in The Social Network. And keeping the snubbed comedy theme going, here’s an outside the box mention: Rob Corddry for his hilarious work in Hot Tub Time Machine.

The Fighter also won in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo, who edged out her co-star Amy Adams. The other nominees: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, and Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. The voters could have certainly nominated either Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey for their roles in Black Swan.

And that’s your Oscar History of 2010, my friends. We’ll get to 2011 soon…

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Movie Review

It’s a feeling that I simply couldn’t shake when I watched 2012’s reboot The Amazing Spider-Man: this movie isn’t necessary. Yet it was. If Sony Pictures wanted to keep the rights to the Spidey brand (and did they ever), a new pic had to be produced. Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst weren’t interested in a fourth entry so the franchise was started over just ten years after it began.

However, that didn’t mean it felt necessary… Sony’s financial consideration aside. Too often The Amazing Spider-Man felt like a remake of 2002’s original and there was no reason to have one. There were silver linings. The chemistry between Andrew Garfield as Peter Parker/Spidey and Emma Stone as Gwen Stacy was stronger than the Maguire/Dunst dynamic. Come to think of it… that was about the only silver lining in director Andrew Webb’s playbook. The rest of the pic was reasonably entertaining but familiar… way too familiar.

This brings us to the inevitable sequel in which the filmmakers (Webb returns behind the camera) inexplicably make the same errors that sunk the original trilogy by the time the mediocre Spider-Man 3 entered multiplexes in 2007. Too many villains. Too many subplots you don’t care about. It’s the same problems that have hindered Batman and Iron Man flicks in their weakest entries, too.

New characters include Jamie Foxx as Electro/Max Dillon, an Oscorp employees who worships Spider-Man and then finds himself as his nemesis when an electrical accident turns him into a super villain. His character is not terribly interesting and Foxx’s performance is not among his strongest.

Dane Dehaan is Harry Osborn, who takes over his Dad’s corporation following his death. Harry finds out he’s terminally ill and believes he needs Spidey’s blood to keep him alive. He doesn’t know his best childhood friend Peter Parker is also… well, you know. Complications ensue and an iconic baddie from Spidey lore enters the picture. Dehaan gives the role his all, but by the time his metamorphosis occurs, you’re checking your watch.

There’s also Paul Giamatti in a curiously small role as a Russian mobster who you won’t care about and where the character’s incredibly talented and Oscar nominated actor hams it up pretty embarrassingly.

And Sally Field is back as Aunt May with Campbell Scott and Embeth Davidtz returning in flashback sequences as Peter’s parents. Denis Leary as Gwen’s late father is also seen, but not heard.

The picture’s only strength lies in the genuine chemistry of Garfield and Stone, just like in the first. It’s not enough. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has that unmistakable whiff of needlessness that plagued its predecessor. There’s a sequence in the beginning when Gwen and Peter are having a quarrel and she sadly says, “You have done this again and again, Peter Parker! I can’t live like this.” We’ve seen that scene between Spidey and his girl again and again… and again… and again. We’ve seen the breakup of Peter and Gwen… and Peter and Mary Jane. And we’ve seen it too much in the past 12 years. Sony Pictures needs to keep the gravy train rolling, but I can live without this fading franchise.

** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: May 2-4

This weekend the summer 2014 movie season officially gets underway and it’s mega-sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 leading the charge. You can read my detailed prediction post on its prospects here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/27/the-amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-prediction/

Week after week, we will see huge profile releases after another. As for weekend #1, Spidey should easily out gross the rest of the top five combined and then some. As for spring holdovers, I look for last weekend’s 1-4 (The Other Woman, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Heaven Is for Real, Rio 2) to all drop in the high 30s-mid 40s range.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $90.1 million

2. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

As for the final weekend of spring, The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz debuted very solidly with $24.7 million, outshining my $18.1M estimate. The rom com clearly hit with its female target audience.

Holdovers occupied slots 2-4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier took second with $16.2 in its fourth weekend, above my $14.3M prediction. Heaven Is for Real held up well in its second weekend for third with $14.3 million, topping my $13M projection. Rio 2 was fourth with $13.8 million, just below my $14.5M prediction.

The Paul Walker action pic Brick Mansions opened in fifth with a weak $9.5 million – not reaching my $12.3M estimate. And the horror flick The Quiet Ones absolutely tanked with only $3.8 million for a seventh place showing, well below my generous $9.4M guess.

That’s all for now! I’ll be back soon as we see just how well Spidey does!

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction

Two summers back, the Spidey franchise was rebooted with Andrew Garfield in the title role and summer 2014 kicks off with its sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 on Friday. Emma Stone is back as Gwen Stacy as is Sally Field as Aunt May, with a trio of villains joining the mix. They are Jamie Foxx as Electro, Paul Giamatti as Russian mobster Aleksei Sytsevich, and Dane DeHaan as Harry Osborn, who will likely become the Green Goblin at some point. Marc Webb, who helmed the original, is back behind the camera.

Interestingly, among the four current Spidey flicks, each has grossed less than the previous one. Here’s the stats:

Spider-Man (2002): $403 million

Spider-Man 2 (2004): $373 million

Spider-Man 3 (2007): $336 million

The Amazing Spider-Man (2012): $262 million

Judging the opening gross of this sequel based on its 2012 predecessor is a bit tricky because it opened over the Fourth of July weekend. While its Friday to Sunday gross was $62 million, it rolled out over a six-day period beginning on a Tuesday with $137 million.

I think the real question here is whether or not The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will have the biggest superhero opening so far this year. In other words – can it top the $95 million opening that Captain America: The Winter Soldier accomplished a month ago?

As I see it, the possibility of Spidey topping $100 million out of the gate is real. It pretty much has the weekend to itself and has the advantage of being the first high-profile summer 2014 blockbuster. On the other hand, the original wasn’t exactly beloved and the low end opening possibility to me would be around $75 million – which would be considered a bit of a letdown.

My spidey sense tells me this won’t quite reach what Captain America did, but it’ll come close.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opening weekend prediction: $90.1 million