My impossibly early first looks at the major Oscar races for 2020 arrives at Best Actor. If you happened to miss my posts concerning the supporting performers, you may find them here:
Unlike nearly all of the potential contenders in Supporting Actor and Actress, there are already two viable possibilities from pictures that have already screened or seen release. The Sundance Film Festival shed light on Anthony Hopkins in the forthcoming The Father while Netflix’s Spike Lee joint Da 5 Bloods showcased career best work from Delroy Lindo. If it not yet known whether Lindo will compete in lead or supporting, but I’m guessing he lands here.
As for other hopefuls, there are many intriguing storylines. On the Rocks finds comedic legend Bill Murray reuniting with director Sofia Coppola. Their 2003 collaboration Lost in Translation marked Mr. Murray’s only nomination thus far. Three years after his win for Darkest Hour, Gary Oldman will headline Netflix’s Mank from David Fincher, which on paper seems like a very awards friendly venture. And the trailer out last week for Judas and the Black Messiah appears to be a bait worthy role for Daniel Kaluuya (though its release date is still up in the air).
There’s plenty more recognizable faces to consider. I nearly put Ben Affleck among the top 15. His spring sports drama The Way Back gave him some of the best critical reaction of his career. Yet he’s likely a long shot.
In 2019, my inaugural August estimates yielded an impressive three of the five eventual nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), and Adam Driver (Marriage Story). In my 10 other possibilities, the other two contenders were also named: Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes and the winner, Joaquin Phoenix as Joker.
For the MCU superhero who spends the most time flying through the air, the two stand-alone Spider-Man pics often feel the most grounded. Looking back on my review of predecessor Homecoming, I used that same word and stated that it worked best in its scenes with Peter Parker out of the suit. It helps that Tom Holland is the most suited for the role over Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield.
Nearly anything would appear more down to earth after the gargantuan epics that were the last two Avengers movies (in which Spidey appeared along with the full and massive roster of heroes). In Far From Home, the scales seem significantly smaller for a while. When Endgame culminated (and stop reading if you haven’t seen it), Peter’s mentor Tony Stark/Iron Man had once again saved the world but lost his life doing it. This is the first MCU title since and the planet is still mourning the Avengers head honcho. It’s more personal for Peter and he’s looking forward to a European class trip over the summer. He wants to hang up the Spidey gear and concentrate on capturing the affections of his crush MJ (Zendaya).
So when Peter trots off to Venice with MJ, his trusty best friend Ned (Jacob Batalon), and other classmates, he does so after ignoring persistent phone calls from Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson). Yet Fury is a hard man to scorn and he tracks him down. It turns out Mr. Stark saw Peter as his ultimate successor (he’s gifted his glasses which serve other purposes besides looking cool). And there’s work to do as havoc wreaking creatures called the Elementals are endangering the populace. Enter a new character that goes by Mysterio (Jake Gyllenhaal). He’s from another dimension (multi-verse if you will) and steps into the shoes of new mentor for our vacationing web slinger.
Naturally (and the trailers didn’t really hide this), Mysterio is not totally as advertised and that sets up more duties for Spidey when he’s just wishing for MJ’s love and some R & R. For the first half of Home, it feels light and even more so considering the stakes of Infinity War and Endgame. That’s not unwelcome as the chemistry between Holland and Zendaya is charming and appropriately awkward. Speaking of romance, Tony’s right hand man Happy (Jon Favreau) is back with Aunt May (Marisa Tomei) eyeing him as her potential full time man.
The world, however, isn’t going to save itself and the second half is filled with the Marvel CG action set pieces we expect. Of course, they’re expertly crafted but they can’t help but feel a little smaller after the Avengers extravaganzas. There is some Doctor Strange style sequences that seemed more appropriate in that MCU offering.
Far From Home eventually hints at larger universes that we already know exist. Spidey will enter back into them and he’s fighting large scale battles here in the end. Just like Homecoming, the quieter moments work better and that especially applies to ones with Peter and MJ. The MCU does continue a winning streak of more than passable villains and Gyllenhaal seems to be savoring his crack at it. The MCU also has a trend of some sequels topping their originals (think Thor and CaptainAmerica). I’d actually put this a slight notch below its direct predecessor and that’s still enough to make this a suitably passable entry.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome opens on Tuesday next week with solid reviews in its corner. With a 90% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, many critics are calling it an improvement on its direct predecessor – 2017’s Spider–Man: Homecoming.
When it comes to Oscar’s history with the Spider-Verse over multiple features, there is past and very recent occurrences. The first two editions of Sam Raimi’s Tobey Maguire trilogy garnered nods. 2002’s Spider–Man nabbed Sound and Visual Effects nominations. Its 2004 sequel won Visual Effects, in addition to Sound nods. Since then, the four live-action features (one more with Maguire, two with Andrew Garfield, and Homecoming) received no awards love. However, last year’s animated and acclaimed Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was the winner of Best Animated Feature.
FarFromHome is, of course, part of the massive Marvel Cinematic Universe. If the studio pushes for Oscar votes, their attention in 2019 is likely to focus on Avengers: Endgame. So even with sturdy critical reaction, I would anticipate this being the fifth non-animated Spidey pic in a row to go empty handed. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
In the 21st century cinematic universe, the famed web slinger has been reinvented on a number of occasions – from Tobey Maguire to Andrew Garfield to Tom Holland. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse is the first one that feels truly inventive. Anyone thinking this animated experience would be a sub par spin-off or money grab will find themselves sorely mistaken. This iteration of the iconic hero has a lot of heart, plenty of action, and a warped sense of humor that elicits genuine laughs. Directors Bob Perischetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman (who co-wrote the screenplay along with Phil Lord) have drawn up what is probably the most satisfying Spidey pic on its own terms.
The picture posits the theory that our title character does his Spidey thing in multiple dimensions and in different forms than just Peter Parker. These characters are familiar to fans of the Marvel Comics and even includes Spider-Ham, representing the hero in pig form. He’s here and he’s fabulous. Our primary Spidey here is Miles (voiced by Shameik Moore), a Brooklyn teen with a police officer father and a potentially shady uncle that he admires. Miles attends a prep school and feels lost in his adolescence just like Peter Parker did. He’s a fan of Spider-Man, who is currently fighting Big Apple crime in the manner we’re accustomed to. That’s until bad guy Kingpin (Liev Schrieber) knocks him off, but not before Miles get a radioactive bite that gives him the well-known powers.
What follows is a visually splendid adventure where it’s clear that the makers really adore the character. At the same time, they take him in unforeseen directions that perhaps only the animated format could allow. Miles’s Spidey teams with an aging and out of shape Peter Parker (Jake Johnson) from a different “verse”, along with Spider-Woman (Hailee Steinfeld) and the aforementioned Ham version. There’s others, but part of the fun is watching them appear without me spoiling it.
Plenty of superhero movies take themselves quite seriously and many have succeeded with that tone. GuardiansoftheGalaxy and Deadpool introduced a different dynamic that is evident here. Yet Spider–Verse is not derivative. It manages to take one of the most repeated story arcs in the genre and cleverly turn it on its head. I enjoyed it immensely. The possibilities are many for this particular universe to continue and I’m up for it.
Over the past 16 years, we’ve witnessed numerous iterations of the famed web slinging superhero Spider-Man. From Tobey Maguire to Andrew Garfield to Tom Holland and two franchise reboots, the character has been omnipresent in our multiplexes. So the idea of an animated version might have seemed like overkill when Sony announced Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse, which creates a world in which multiple people can be the iconic character.
Critical reaction out today suggests otherwise. Spider–Verse stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with over 30 reviews in. Some write-ups claim it’s the best Spidey feature since 2004’s Spider–Man2. Select others claim it’s the best of the whole bunch (this will be seventh stand-alone entry).
Will Oscar notice? It seems highly likely. That would mean a nod in Best Animated Feature. It marks a fourth near “sure thing “ in that race, including current box office champ RalphBreakstheInternet and IsleofDogs. The raves bestowed upon this suggests it could even stand a better chance at winning than those pictures. Yet it could be a tall order to overcome the Pixar juggernaut involving other superheroes – Incredibles2.
Bottom line: Spider–Verse is into the Animated Feature mix in a major way. It’s out stateside on December 14. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Greetings everyone! It’s Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are back. In the past week, we’ve seen SAG nominations (often a better indicator than the Globes when it comes to precursors) released. This week, we’re going to see review embargoes lifted for All the Money in the World (tomorrow) and The Greatest Showman (Wednesday). These are really the final two pieces of the awards puzzle.
Here are the significant developments and changes in my rankings from the last 7 days:
Best Picture remains the same nine nominees, but Phantom Thread is, well, hanging by one with Mudbound, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, and (maybe) All the Money in the World close behind.
Daniel Kaluuya moves up to #6 in Best Actor possibilities. I’m not ready to put him in, but he’s making Franco and Hanks look a bit vulnerable.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve replaced Michael Stuhlbarg with Woody Harrelson.
In Supporting Actress, I’ve replaced Melissa Leo with Octavia Spencer. I nearly went with Holly Hunter for the 5 spot.
In Adapted Screenplay where the fifth slot looks up for grabs, I’ve put in All the Money in the World in for now (replacing Wonder).
The Foreign Language film race released its nine possible contenders. Surprisingly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Angelina Jolie’s First, They Killed My Father were left out.
The Visual Effects category named their ten possible films. Left off were Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Beauty and the Beast. I had all four in my top ten possibles, but not in my predicted five.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. The Post (PR: 4)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 7)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder (PR: 5)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)
8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
9. Ferdinand (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Boss Baby
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. The Square (PR: 3)
3. Loveless (PR: 5)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
5. In the Fade (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Insult (PR: 8)
7. The Wound (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Felicite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
First, They Killed My Father
Thelma
The Divine Order
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: Not Ranked)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 5)
7. One of Us (PR: 7)
8. LA 92 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 6)
10. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
10. Get Out (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Call Me by Your Name
Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonderstruck
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
**Blogger’s Note (12/19/17): A days after my initial estimates, the Academy has announced the seven films that will compete in the category. My updated predictions are reflected here:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
3. Wonder (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
5. Bright (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Ghost in the Shell (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
Logan
The Shape of Water
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
It
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Okja (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Woman
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 10)
That gives us the following nomination breakdowns:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
The Post
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Lady Bird
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Woman, Wonder, Baby Driver, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip
My Oscar picks will be updated next on Christmas Day!
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions. There’s been a host of precursor activity in the past week with the biggest coming this morning as the Golden Globe nominations were announced.
The verdict? The five nominated Best Drama contenders are all very likely Oscar competitors – Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name. In the Comedy category, both Lady Bird and Get Out got in as expected.
Speaking of Get Out, this week marks its first inclusion in my estimated nine contenders. In fact, it vaults four spots up to #7. Something had to come out and it was Darkest Hour, whose luster seems to be fading.
Another Globe surprise: the strong showing for All the Money in the World. Reviews have yet to come, but it was nominated for Director (Ridley Scott), Actress in Drama (Michelle Williams), and Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer, who famously took over the role from the embattled Kevin Spacey). All three debut on the lower rung on my predictions.
In other developments:
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is in for Supporting Actor over Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Two changes in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) in over Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
In the Screenplay races, Wonder is in for Adapted over Wonderstruck while in the crowded Original Screenplay category, The Shape of Water is back in over Phantom Thread
Read on!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 11)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
11. Mudbound (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Disaster Artist
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
5. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 6)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 9)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 10)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Victoria and Abdul
First, They Killed My Father
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 5)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
8. Despicable Me 3 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Boss Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ferdinand
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
In this Corner of the World
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 2)
2. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
3. The Square (PR: 7)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. Loveless (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. In the Fade (PR: 4)
8. The Insult (PR: 5)
9. Thelma (PR: 9)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 5)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
4. Long Strange Trip (PR: 7)
5. Strong Island (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: Not Ranked)
7. One of Us (PR: 9)
8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cries from Syria
Icarus
Risk
Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 7)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Wonder (PR: 9)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. It (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. Detroit (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 8)
8. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)
9. Detroit (PR: 5)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 7)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
“The Promise” from The Promise
And that break down for the following number of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Post
6 Nominations
Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Wonder, Wonderstruck, Baby Driver, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, BPM (Beats Per Minute), The Square, First, They Killed My Father, Loveless, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, Strong Island
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.
Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:
The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.
You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 7)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
11. Get Out (PR: 11)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, CallMebyYourName (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, TheDisasterArtist (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 2)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Get Out (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Despicable Me 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. In the Fade (PR: 2)
5. The Insult (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. The Square (PR: 5)
8. Loveless (PR: 7)
9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Happy End
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
4. Icarus (PR: 3)
5. Faces Places (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 8)
7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
8. Risk (PR: 7)
9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Step
The Final Year
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 4)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Mudbound (PR: 10)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonder (PR: 7)
10. It (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Beauty and the Beast
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
5. Detroit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
2. PhantomThread (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)
And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:
11 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall.
I’m back at it again with my post Turkey Day Oscar predictions. The winner of this particular week is Phantom Thread, which has held screenings. While reviews are under strict embargo until next week, there is some positive word emanating from the Twitterverse. It’s buzz could certainly change once official reviews are released, but for now I’ve got it in Best Picture for the first time and that means The Florida Project has been taken out. Additionally, Phantom has gone from an estimated four nods last week to seven today.
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is also gaining traction even though official reviews aren’t yet out. It’s doubled my predicted nomination count from 4 to 8 this week.
If there’s a loser this week, it’s Darkest Hour. I had it at 10 nominations last week and now I have it at 6.
Some other developments:
Best Director has two newbies: Spielberg and Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. That means Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) and Dee Rees (Mudbound) are currently out.
In Best Actor, I’ve removed Andrew Garfield (Breathe) in favor of James Franco (The Disaster Artist).
Changes in both Supporting races as I’ve put Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) in and taken Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) out. In Supporting Actress, I’ve vaulted Lesley Manville’s (there’s buzz) work in Phantom Thread in, therefore removing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.
Here’s how I’ve got it all playing out!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. LadyBird (PR: 7)
5. CallMebyYourName (PR: 6)
6. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
7. ThePost (PR: 8)
8. Mudbound (PR: 5)
9. PhantomThread (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
10. TheFloridaProject (PR: 7)
11. GetOut (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
13. Detroit (PR: 14)
14. BattleoftheSexes (PR: 15)
15. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 13)
BestDirector
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, LadyBird (PR: 6)
5. Steven Spielberg, ThePost (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, CallMebyYourName (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Lesley Manville, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 10)
8. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
9. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Breathe
BestAdaptedScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. CallMebyYourName (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’sGame (PR: 3)
4. TheDisasterArtist (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. LastFlagFlying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 10)
8. VictoriaandAbdul (PR: 7)
9. First, TheyKilledMyFather (PR: Not Ranked)
10. TheBeguiled (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stronger
BestOriginalScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. LadyBird (PR: 3)
3. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
4. GetOut (PR: 4)
5. ThePost (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
7. TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. TheFloridaProject (PR: 6)
9. DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. PhantomThread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
9. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Girl Without Hands
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. Foxtrot (PR: 5)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. The Square (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. Loveless (PR: 7)
8. The Divine Order (PR: 9)
9. The Insult (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Happy End (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Tom of Finland
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 2)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
3. Icarus (PR: 3)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Step (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Risk (PR: 7)
8. Strong Island (PR: 5)
9. Faces Places (PR: 10)
10. The Final Year (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kedi
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
8. Lady Bird (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Get Out
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
9. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 8)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. The Post (PR: 7)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 3)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
10. It (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 10)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Coco
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
8. Detroit (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 6)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 3)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 4)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Jump” from Step
And that tallies up the following nominations for each film:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, Baby Driver
1 Nomination
Stronger, The Florida Project, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Cars 3, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Jane, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall
I’ll be back at it next Monday with updated predictions!
Greetings all as my Oscar predictions return! My Thursday predictions will now become my Monday predictions as I missed last Thursday due to vacation. The biggest development of the last 11 days was that Steven Spielberg’s The Post screened last night. While it’s under strict embargo still from reviews, word leaking out currently is pretty encouraging and it’s bolstered both the picture and Meryl Streep’s chances for Oscar recognition (and possibly its director and Tom Hanks as well). It’s enough that I’ve got it going from 1 predicted nod a couple weeks ago to 4 today. A word of caution: with the embargo in place, I would describe my current Post placements as fluid.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll be back next Monday with fresh predictions!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 6)
6. CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. LadyBird (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. TheFloridaProject (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. GetOut (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
12. PhantomThread (PR: 13)
13. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
LastFlagFlying
BestDirector
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
2. Sam Rockwell, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, CallMebyYourName (PR: 3)
4. Michael Shannon, TheShapeofWater (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. Richard Jenkins, TheShapeofWater (PR: 8)
8. Woody Harrelson, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
10. Steve Carell, BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Mendelsohn, DarkestHour
Will Poulter, Detroit
BestSupportingActress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, LadyBird (PR: 2)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
7. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bria Vinaite, TheFloridaProject
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 6)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 5)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
9. Stronger (PR: 9)
10. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Get Out (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 7)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 5)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 9)
9. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. The Square (PR: 5)
5. Foxtrot (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
7. Loveless (PR: 3)
8. Happy End (PR: 7)
9. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
10. Tom of Finland (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
2. Jane (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: 4)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Strong Island (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kedi (PR: 8)
7. Risk (PR: 5)
8. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
10. Faces Places (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
Step
One of Us
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
7. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Get Out (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Mudbound
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Call Me by Your Name
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Mudbound (PR: 9)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
mother!
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Post (PR: 9)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)
7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
8. It (PR: 9)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 10)
9. Coco (PR: 7)
10. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
4. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)
5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
7. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)
10. “Jump” from Step (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves us with the following breakdown of nominations:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
Dunkirk, Darkest Hour
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, Lady Bird, The Post, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman,
1 Nomination
Stronger, Breathe, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, Coco, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Foxtrot, Jane, Icarus, Strong Island, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, Fifty Shades Darker.
We’ll see you next Monday with updated projections!
