Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.
Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.
That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.
Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.
Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.
I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…
My closer look at six high profile races for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can peruse them here:
As I have with those categories, I am winnowing the field of my predicted nominees from 15 possibilities to 10. At the moment, I believe Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) are guaranteed slots with Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) darn close to wrapping up one himself.
After that, there are plenty of hopefuls vying for the two spots. I do believe two females could populate them via some combo of Celine Song (Past Lives), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), and Ana DuVernay (Origin).
We also have Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) as strong possibilities. Perhaps even Cord Jefferson (director of freshly minted Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner American Fiction) could make a run.
And there’s the unseen contenders in Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple) and Ridley Scott (Napoleon).
Lots to ponder and there are now three new players in my final quintet compared to my previous predictions on August 28th. Here’s where I have the race standing at the moment:
Predicted Nominees
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+6)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
Nearly a decade after Selma was nominated for Best Picture and seven years after 13th was up for Documentary Feature, Ana DuVernay could be back in the awards conversation with Origin. Adapted from Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents, the 2020 nonfiction novel covering various racial issues, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (2021’s Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard) plays the book’s author Isabel Wilkerson. Costars include Jon Bernthal, Vera Farmiga, Audra McDonald, Niecy Nash-Betts, Nick Offerman, Jasmine Cephas Jones, Connie Nielsen, and Finn Wittrock.
At the Venice Film Festival, Origin received an appreciable reception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 85%. The Neon release (scheduled for sometime late this year) could still struggle to break into the Oscar consciousness. Some of the reviews (while generally positive) have enough reservations that this may not be much of a player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.
Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.
In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.
One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)
12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)
18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12.Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)
13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)
Droped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Jane Levy, A Little Prayer
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporing Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
Blogger’s Note (03/07): I am revising my estimate from $42.8 million to $37.8 million, meaning I have it debuting at #2
What film could knock Disney’s Black Panther off its perch atop the box office charts after its momentous performance? Well, it should be another Disney property as A Wrinkle in Time debuts next Friday. Based on the famed and acclaimed 1962 novel from Madeleine L’Engle, the sci-fi fantasy comes from Selma director Ana DuVernay and marks the biggest budgeted feature ever (a reported $103 million) from an African-American female director. The cast includes Oprah Winfrey, Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, Chris Pine, Gugu-Mbatha Raw, Zach Galifianakis, Michael Pena, and Storm Reid.
The Disney marketing machine is certainly a formidable one and familiarity with the source material and high-profile actors should serve as a benefit. One potential hindrance: while reviews are embargoed until March 7, initial word-of-mouth from screenings has been mixed.
On the low end, Wrinkle could see a debut in the mid 30s. However, I feel it will manage to climb higher with low 40s gross that could certainly reach as a high as $50 million. I don’t see it hitting the high 60s grosses that Disney’s live-action adaptations like Maleficent or Cinderella managed. That should be enough to allow the Mouse Factory to hold the 1-2 position next weekend with this and Panther.
A Wrinkle in Time opening weekend prediction: $37.8 million
For my TheStrangers: PreyatNight prediction, click here:
Thursday has arrived and that means a fresh round of Oscar predictions in the 8 biggest categories! The major development this week? The announcement that Viola Davis will compete in Supporting Actress for Fences instead of lead. I’ve had Davis firmly at #3 for weeks on my Best Actress board, but this news puts her at #1 in the supporting race. I’m also growing more confident that both Moonlight (which had a scorching debut in limited release) and Loving will make it into Best Picture and they both rise up in this week’s rankings.
Please note – this will be the final week of predicting 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 predictions in the other races. Starting next week as November arrives, it’ll be whittled down to 20 in Picture and 10 in the others.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Jackie (PR: 5)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 10)
9. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 18)
14. Sully (PR: 14)
15. Live by Night (PR: 13)
16. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 15)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
19. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
20. Allied (PR: 21)
21. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Passengers (PR: 24)
23. Gold (PR: 22)
24. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 23)
25. 13th (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 10)
13. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 12)
15. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ana DuVernay, 13th
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 10)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 14)
13. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 9)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
12. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
14. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Fences (competing in Supporting Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 7)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: Not Ranked, listed in Lead Actress)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
It’s Thursday, ladies and gents, and that means my weely Oscar predictions are in! There’s been some serious changes to the predictions, a new film that’s qualified itself for consideration, and some category shifting that’s occurred within the past week.
So – perhaps some explanation on where I see the state of the races in each of the eight major categories is required this week. My synopsis of said races are for your enjoyment below…
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Jackie (PR: 5)
6. Moonlight (PR: 7)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Arrival (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities
10. Loving (PR: 10)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
13. Live by Night (PR: 13)
14. Sully (PR: 15)
15. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)
18. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 20)
20. 13th (PR: 16)
21. Allied (PR: 21)
22. Gold (PR: 22)
23. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Passengers (PR: 23)
25. The Founder (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sloane
I, Daniel Blake
Where The Race Stands…
With La La Land as the current front runner and there’s no doubt about it. The conventional wisdom for the last several weeks is that there were three fall entries that could potentially give it a run for its money: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. That dynamic shifted dramatically when Halftime opened to middling reviews when it screened at the New York Film Festival this weekend. The film has now dropped 11 spots and out of my predicted nominees and it’s unlikely to make its way back in. Silence and Fences now seem the only likely pictures to stand in the way of La La. Meanwhile, Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge makes a serious jump into the possibilities – from not ranked a week ago to #18. I’ve also found room for the Warren Beatty pic Rules Don’t Apply, which has yet to screen. Others on the list of possibilities that have yet to be reviewed (meaning they could jump up when they do or fall out completely): Hidden Figures (which I have in the ninth spot at the moment for a nod), Live by Night, Passengers, Allied, Gold, The Founder and others not currently in the top 25 such as Miss Sloane and Collateral Beauty.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
4. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 9)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)
10. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
12. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 11)
13. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
15. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Where the Race Stands…
With two-time Oscar winner Ang Lee falling 8 spots after the NYFF Halftime reaction. Chazelle remains at #1 as he’s been for weeks as we await Scorsese and Washington’s films. I’m growing more confident that Lonergan manages to squeeze into the top five.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked in Lead Actor)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
14. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 15)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Where the Race Stands…
Up in the air until we see Denzel’s work in Fences, which could potentially become the immediate front runner as I’m currently estimating. Casey Affleck is getting raves, too and has held steady at #2 for weeks. Andrew Garfield is on the outside looking in for now, but could get in for either Silence or Hacksaw Ridge. There’s also late breaking news that Taylor Hackford’s The Comedian was given a December release for Oscar consideration and perhaps that’ll bode well for its star, Robert De Niro (though I’m not prepared to include him in the mix quite yet). And there’s last week’s reveal that Warren Beatty will compete in this category instead of Supporting, as was previously thought.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 14)
13. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
14. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
Where the Race Stands…
As one of the most competitive Best Actress races in history. Both Stone and Portman are serious contenders for the win and we haven’t even seen heard the word on Davis’s work in Fences. They appear to be the trio that could win. In any other year, Bening’s acclaimed performance in Women might earn her some overdue recognition, but probably not this year. The fifth slot is much trickier and I almost picked Adams (for Arrival and not Nocturnal Animals) over Negga. Just to show you the competitiveness, Streep in most years would be a shoo-in for her 20th (!) nomination for Jenkins, but could be left out. Others to keep an eye on: Chastain and a dark horse nominee like Hall.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 11)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
12. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (moved to Lead Actor list)
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Timothy Spall, Denial
Where the Race Stands…
Absolutely and 100% percent wide open… so much so that I’m not confident any of my current picks make the final cut. Some would argue Grant is in, but I’m not totally convinced. Shannon is such a well-respected actor that he’s probably in, but reaction has been very mixed on Nocturnal Animals. Neeson and Henderson’s work has yet to be seen. Bottom line: this particular category could change a lot over the next few weeks.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)
7. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
12. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)
14. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
15. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Sienna Miller, Live by Night
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane
Where The Race Stands…
Seemingly with Williams and Harris as the two front runners and it’s been that way for a while after Manchester and Moonlight, respectively, hit the festival circuit. Perhaps one of the two actresses from the not yet screened Hidden Figures (Spencer and Monae, who also got positive notices for Moonlight) could make a play. Otherwise, this looks like a two-way competition at the moment.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Loving (PR: 7)
7. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: 9)
9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 14)
11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 11)
12. The Lobster (PR: 12)
13. Allied (PR: 10)
14. Gold (PR: 13)
15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Captain Fantastic
Where the Race Stands…
As a race that La La Land may not automatically win over Manchester by the Sea. Jackie and Moonlight are also looking solid for nominations with a fifth slot that I keep changing up between 20th Century Women, Loving, and Hell or High Water.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Love & Friendship (PR: 11)
8. Live by Night (PR: 8)
9. Elle (PR: 10)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
11. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
12. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
13. Indignation (PR: 12)
14. Certain Women (PR: 13)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
Where the Race Stands…
In a waiting pattern as Fences and Silence have yet to screen. They could both be heavy hitters. If they both falter, look to Lion.
And that does it for this week, folks! Until next time…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are in! As with previous weeks, I’m ranking the top 25 most likely Best Picture nominees along with top 15 in seven other big races. Come November – those numbers will dwindle to 20 and 10, respectively. You can see where each nominee has risen or fallen or stayed the same from one week ago.
Some developments… Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk is expected to screen this weekend so the buzz will be out (meaning its Oscar picture will become more clear soon). Loving took a hit this week and is out of my Best Picture predictions for the first time (enter Arrival). And the poor debut of The Birth of a Nation has knocked it out of the top 25 altogether.
**I’ll note again that just because I rank a picture, director, or actor at #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting them to win. It just means their first on chances of a nomination. I won’t get into predicting winners until after the nominations are released.
And with that… let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Jackie (PR: 9)
6. Lion (PR: 4)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9. Arrival (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities
10. Loving (PR: 8)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 19)
12. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 13)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
15. Sully (PR: 12)
16. 13th (PR: 16)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 20)
19. Miss Sloane (PR: 24)
20. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
21. Allied (PR: 23)
22. Gold (PR: 22)
23. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Founder (PR: 21)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
The Birth of a Nation
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)
11. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
12. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 12)
14. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 11)
15. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
7. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
12. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 14)
13. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 14)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
14. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 5)
7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 9)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 7)
10. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 13)
11. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 11)
15. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
12. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)
13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (Not Ranked)
15. Guga Mbatha Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Loving (PR: 5)
8. Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
9. Toni Erdmann (PR: 15)
10. Allied (PR: 14)
11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
12. The Lobster (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 13)
14. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 8)
15. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 8)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Live by Night (PR: 9)
9. Sully (PR: 6)
10. Elle (PR: 11)
11. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
12. Indignation (PR: 10)
13. Certain Women (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 13)
15. Denial (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
A Monster Calls
Whew! And there you have it… I’ll be back at it next Thursday!
It’s Thursday and that means I’m back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. So what’s transpired over the past seven days? Quite a bit! The Girl on the Train, which opens tomorrow, was screened with very mixed critical reaction. It had been at the lower end (#24 last week) of possible Best Picture nominees, but it now appears its chances have been completely derailed. Don’t expect it to appear on the list again. I do still have Emily Blunt as a long-shot Actress possibility, but Haley Bennett’s work in Supporting Actress and an Adapted Screenplay nomination have also fallen off.
We also got a trailer for Pablo Larrain’s Jackie, which could be a contender in several races. And we received official word that Ben Affleck’s Prohibition era crime pic Live by Night will be released in limited fashion in late December, qualifying it for the Academy’s consideration.
And there was the debut at the New York Film Festival of Ana DuVernay’s race relations documentary 13th. It’s important to note that no doc has been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s got a steep hill to climb. Yet it’s possible and joins the contenders of hopefuls this week.
*A final note before we get to predictions. It is my plan throughout October to keep with listing 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 in the other races. By the first week of November, this will shift to 20 for Best Picture and ten in the others.
And with that, this week’s predictions:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Arrival (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
16. 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
17. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. 20th Century Women (PR: 18)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
21. The Founder (PR: 22)
22. Gold (PR: 21)
23. Allied (PR: 23)
24. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 9)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 7)
9. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
11. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
15. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 10)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 14)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 12)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 11)
14. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Rachel Weisz, Denial
Sally Field, My Name is Doris
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
5. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 10)
9. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 14)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 8)
12. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 7)
13. Lucas Hedges, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 11)
14. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 13)
15. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothy Spall, Denial
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
The New York Film Festival has begun and that means a fresh round of Oscar Watch posts will be coming your way over the next couple of weeks. For the first time in the fest’s history, a documentary kicked off the proceedings and it’s a very high-profile one.
Ana DuVernay’s 13th (named after the 13th amendment) explores issues of race relations in America over history. This is the director’s first effort since Selma. Early critical reaction from its screening indicate this is a powerful and emotional experience. And most viewers won’t have to wait long at all to view it as it premieres on Netflix a week from today (Friday, October 7).
Since the announcement of the project, 13th has been seen as a front-runner for Best Documentary at the Oscars. The buzz emanating from the Big Apple confirms that status. A more unknown question is whether this documentary expands outside of that category and becomes a player in Best Picture. To do so, it’ll need to make history as no doc has ever received a nod in the biggest race of all.
So for those making their list for probable Best Pic nominees, it’s best to leave 13th out at the time being. Yet it proved yesterday that it’s the one to beat in the Documentary Feature category.
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