Tag: American Sniper

January 18-21 Box Office Predictions

The four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame brings just one new release and it’s a big one as M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass debuts. The melding of the director’s past hits Unbreakable and Split looks to achieve January’s second largest debut ever. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/08/glass-box-office-prediction/

While reviews have been mixed at best, I have a hunch Glass could be fairly critic proof (think Venom from a few months back). My low 70s estimate for its Friday to Monday performance easily has it dominating the charts and nabbing the month’s runner-up status as far as all-time openers behind 2015’s American Sniper.

With no new wide releases out, The Upside should fall to second after its better than anticipated premiere (more on that below). Aquaman, A Dog’s Way Home, and Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse should fill out the rest of the top five.

My estimates are as follows and keep in mind they’re for the four days of grosses:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $72.1 million

2. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. A Dog’s Way Home

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

5. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (January 11–13)

As mentioned, The Upside had just what its name suggested. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama surprised prognosticators like me with a healthy start of $20.3 million, easily surpassing my $11.6 million projection. It’s further proof of Hart’s potency at the box office and marks the first #1 opening for studio STX Entertainment.

Aquaman was second after three weeks on top with $17.3 million, in line with my $17.7 million prediction. The impressive total stands at $287 million.

A Dog’s Way Home had a so-so start in third with $11.2 million – not quite reaching my guesstimate of $12.8 million.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The animated superhero tale (fresh off a Golden Globe win for Best Animated Film) made $9 million to bring its tally to $147 million.

Escape Room was close behind in fifth with $8.9 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $32 million.

Mary Poppins Returns fell to sixth with $7.6 million (I went higher with $8.8 million). The Disney sequel has made $151 million.

The Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic On the Basis of Sex expanded nationwide and placed eighth with $6 million. I went with a little more at $7.9 million.

Finally, the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas bombed badly in 13th with just $2.3 million compared to my take of $3.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Glass Box Office Prediction

When it debuts over the MLK four-day holiday weekend, M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass will easily break into the number one spot. Questions about its potential ceiling are very real. The superhero thriller mixes the casts of two of the filmmaker’s best known works – 2000’s Unbreakable and 2017’s Split. That means James McAvoy, Bruce Willis, Samuel L. Jackson, Spencer Treat Clark and Anya-Taylor Joy are along for the ride as well as Sarah Paulson joining this cinematic universe. No other movie opens wide against it.

Just over 18 years ago, Unbreakable was Night’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to his breakthrough smash hit The Sixth Sense. Audiences had a mixed reaction at the time, but it managed a five-day Thanksgiving haul of $46 million before a final domestic gross of $95 million. Its reputation has grown in many circles in time. Two years ago, Split served as a major comeback vehicle for the director with a $40 million start as it legged out to $138 million.

I believe the positive response for Split will earn this impressive results. It only helps that it’s still fresh in the minds of audiences, including the ending that set up this picture. Word-of-mouth will determine the rest.

Glass will not shatter this holiday weekend’s record, which is held by American Sniper at $107 million. Earning the #2 honors over MLK should be a breeze as that’s currently held by Ride Along at $48 million.

Prognostications have this nabbing anywhere between $50-75 million from Friday to Monday. I have a hunch the higher end of that range is the route to go.

*On the eve of its premiere, I’m downgrading from $72.1 million to $58.1 million

Glass opening weekend prediction: $58.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

2018: The Year of Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga

The buzz got loud in late summer when A Star Is Born held its first screenings across the ocean at the Venice Film Festival. The third remake of the rags to riches Hollywood story that began in 1937, the musical drama marked the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper and the first headlining acting role for pop superstar Lady Gaga (after a smaller part in Machete Kills). It soon became clear that audiences and critics found the tragic romance between the pair as anything but shallow.

Star now shines with a domestic gross of $200 million and the status as a front-runner for Best Picture at the Oscars. If Mr. Cooper’s inaugural behind the camera effort manages to do that, he would follow in the footsteps of well-known actors like Robert Redford (1980’s Ordinary People) and Kevin Costner (1990’s Dances with Wolves) whose debuts won the Academy’s biggest prize. Theoretically Cooper coukd win as many as four gold statues – Picture for producing, directing, lead Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. And while he technically wouldn’t be nominated for his duet “Shallow” with Gaga since he doesn’t share writing credit, the tune will probably emerge victorious in that race. To add even more to Cooper’s dynamic year, he costars with his American Sniper director Clint Eastwood in The Mule, which is performing well.

As for Gaga, her splashy foray on the silver screen certainly rivals others such as Prince and Whitney Houston to name a couple. She stands a real shot at winning Best Actress in a competitive category. Cooper likely has an even stronger chance for his performance.

In 2018, Cooper and Gaga are responsible for creating perhaps the year’s most memorable couple. They could be generously rewarded for it.

The Mule Charges Into Oscar Contention

A bit of an awards season surprise turned up today when Warner Bros announced that Clint Eastwood’s The Mule will be out on December 14. The film casts Eastwood in the true story of a World War II vet who becomes a courier for Mexican drug cartels at age 80.

The Mule marks Eastwood’s first turn in front of the camera since 2012’s Trouble with the Curve. It’s the first time he’s directed himself since 2008’s hit Gran Torino. While it’s been a little while since he’s acted, he has been churning out directorial efforts every year. It’s no accident that every time he does, Oscar chatter follows.

Over the past quarter century plus, Eastwood has seen a number of his pictures win and be nominated. In 1992, Unforgiven won Best Picture and Director. Twelve years later, Million Dollar Baby was a surprise late addition to the awards season calendar (as this is). It also won Picture and Director. Additionally, Mystic River, Letters from Iwo Jima, and American Sniper all received nods in the big race.

Just last year, The 15:17 to Paris was assumed to be another possibility for inclusion for consideration. It ended up coming out in February of this year and was a commercial and critical failure. Paris is nowhere on the radar screen for Academy chatter this year.

Will The Mule be a different story? Another Million Dollar Baby that alters the Oscar race? While we’ll have to wait for buzz and reviews (there’s not even a trailer yet), some signs point to no.

There’s already rumors that Warner Bros is looking at this as more of a commercial venture  than one they will focus on for awards campaigning. The studio already has a very serious contender on its docket with A Star Is Born. Speaking of, Eastwood’s costars here include Bradley Cooper (director and star of Born) as well as Dianne Wiest, Michael Pena, Laurence Fishburne, Taissa Farmiga, and Alison Eastwood.

Even if Warner doesn’t see this as their largest Academy player, we will see if critics and audiences feel differently. One thing is for sure – we have another movie to keep an eye on in 2018.

Oscar Watch: A Star Is Born

One of the most eagerly awaited pictures has debuted at Venice today with A Star Is Born. The film is the third remake of a tale that began onscreen over 80 years ago. The 1937 version starred Janet Gaynor and Fredric March. The 1954 Star featured Judy Garland and James Mason. The 1976 version featured Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson. All three of them received multiple Oscar nominations. None of them were featured in the Best Picture race.

That is probably about to change. The 2018 Star is directed, co-written, and starring Bradley Cooper in his debut behind the camera. His acting counterpart is Lady Gaga. Early reviews have praised both of their performances and it appears very likely both will be honored in their respective lead acting races. This would obviously be Gaga’s first nomination and Cooper’s fourth after Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. Cooper may well find himself honored for his direction and Adapted Screenplay alongside Eric Roth and Will Fetters.

As for supporting players, the Academy may take notice of Sam Elliot’s work as Cooper’s older brother. Critics have also pointed out the performance of Rafi Gavron as the manager of Cooper’s troubled music superstar character.

Several down the line categories could in the mix including Cinematography, Editing, both Sound races, and Gaga’s original songs that are expected to be part of the soundtrack.

Bottom line: Another contender was born today in Venice – one with serious star power.

A Star Is Born opens domestically on October 5. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The 15:17 to Paris

For much of 2017, there was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s true life terrorism pic The 15:17 to Paris could become a late entry into the Oscar race. It didn’t materialize and it was slated for an opening this Friday. I found it a bit curious that the review embargo didn’t lift until two days prior to its debut.

We may now know why. Early critical reaction to Paris has been rather negative. The film casts the three real life heroes (Spencer Stone, Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos) who thwarted a 2015 French train attack alongside more familiar faces including Jenna Fischer, Judy Greer, and Tony Hale.

Eastwood has, of course, been no stranger to Oscar glory with 1992’s Unforgiven and 2004’s Million Dollar Baby both winning Best Picture and Director. In the 21st century,  Mystic River, Letters from Iwo Jima, and American Sniper were nominated. His projects often merit Academy chatter and this one did until now.

The 15:17 to Paris seems destined for zero awards attention. That also means Jaleel White (TV’s Urkel who from “Family Matters” appears) will not receive his first Oscar nomination.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

12 Strong Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million

Warner Bros is hoping to show a force of box office strength when 12 Strong debuts in theaters next Friday. Subtitled The Declassified True Story of the Horse Soldiers, the action drama recounts the true story of the first fighters sent overseas immediately following the 9/11 attacks. Marking the directorial debut of former war photojournalist Nicolai Fuglsig, the cast includes Chris Hemsworth, Michael Shannon, Michael Pena, Trevante Rhodes, William Fichtner, and Rob Riggle.

Over the last few years, January has proven to be fertile ground for similarly themed pics. In 2014, Lone Survivor debuted to a terrific $37 million. Two years ago, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi took in a little over $19 million out of the gate, though it opened over the four-day MLK frame. The pinnacle of the genre (and openings for the month of January overall) was in 2015 when American Sniper astonished prognosticators with $107 million for its four-day MLK weekend premiere.

As you can see, it isn’t rare to see these true life war tales perform quite nicely with moviegoers. Hemsworth brings some star power and he’s just coming off the franchise best performance of his Thor series.

That said, expectations are certainly more in line with Benghazi and not Survivor and definitely not Sniper. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a debut slightly over $20 million, but I’ll estimate Strong takes in high teens for its start.

12 Strong opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million

For my Den of Thieves prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/10/den-of-thieves-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Thank You for Your Service

This Friday, Thank You for Your Service hits theaters and reviews out today have been quite positive. It marks the directorial debut of Jason Hall, who received an Oscar nod in Adapted Screenplay in 2014 for American Sniper. The film concentrates on Iraqi soldiers dealing with PTSD upon their return home. Miles Teller heads the cast alongside Haley Bennett, Beulah Koale, and Amy Schumer.

The subject matter here is certainly timely and critical reaction suggests another strong performance from Teller, who many feel should have been nominated for his work in 2014’s Whiplash. That said, I don’t see Thank You being much a player in this year’s awards scene. Box office grosses aren’t expected to be strong like in the case of Sniper, which grossed $350 million domestically and scored six nominations.

Adapted Screenplay (from Hall) could be its sole shot at recognition. On paper currently, that category seems a bit thin. However, the likely scenario is that Service won’t be in the mix come announcement time.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Th1T8jvo_Y

Thank You for Your Service Box Office Prediction

Based on a true story detailed in David Finkel’s 2013 novel, war drama Thank You for Your Service is in theaters next weekend. Miles Teller, Haley Bennett, Beulah Koale, and Amy Schumer (in a change of pace role) Amy Schumer are among the cast.

The debut of TV director Jason Hall, Thank You could face an uphill battle at the box office. The late October release doesn’t inspire much confidence. While this genre has certainly had breakout hits like American Sniper and Lone Survivor, this tale of three soldiers returning from Iraq probably won’t even reach double digits.

I’ll say this could go as low as $4 million, but I’ll predict it manages a bit above that.

Thank You for Your Service opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my Jigsaw prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/jigsaw-box-office-prediction/

For my Suburbicon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/suburbicon-box-office-prediction/

Blond Ambition: Who Should Play Madonna?

There’s a well known thing in Hollywood referred to as The Black List, a compilation of screenplays that have yet to be produced. Executives in the film industry vote on which ones that they think are the best. Since the inception of the list in 2005, some that have made it on there eventually became awards worthy material. This includes eventual Best Picture winners Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, Argo, and Spotlight. There’s Best Picture nominees like Babel, Juno, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Whiplash, American Sniper and The Revenant. We have hit movies of all genres including Superbad, The Fighter, The Hangover, Arrival, and John Wick.

The 2016 Black List was released today and the pic that received the most votes caught my eye. It’s Blond Ambition, a biopic about Madonna that’s set in the 1980s as she was a struggling artist in NYC before becoming the world’s most famous Material Girl. Elyse Hollander is the screenwriter and it’s probably safe to assume this will be on the silver screen in relatively short order.

A well made Madonna biopic (paging Damien Chazelle to direct) could be quite a sight to behold. And, of course, it got me thinking. Who should play her? There’s always the option of casting an unknown. After all, taking on the role of music’s most successful female artist might work better with a performer unfamiliar to our eyes.

Yet one name in particular entered my mind when I read the news today: Chloe Grace Moretz. I think she could pull it off. Even if the film took a couple of years to get off the ground, she’s only 19 right now and would certainly fit the age appropriate timing of that are in its subject’s life. I also thought of Greta Gerwig and she could be interesting, but she’s in her early 30s and Madonna would be in her early to mid 20s here. It could still work though.

What say you? What other actresses could potentially do justice to Madge?