March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Captain Marvel looks to make another giant pot of box office gold in its sophomore frame while a quartet of newcomers could struggle to get noticed. There’s the animated Wonder Park, youthful romantic drama Five Feet Apart, and alien invasion flick Captive State debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/wonder-park-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/five-feet-apart-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/10/captive-state-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting much from the newbies. I didn’t do an individual post for Mexican comedy sequel No Manches Frida 2, which hits the smallest number of screens at around 450. It will likely post the highest per screen average of the premieres and I’ll forecast a $3.4 million debut for sixth place. That’s better than my take on Captive State. It opens in almost five times as many venues, but I’m projecting a measly $2.8 million.

Park and Feet could find themselves in a close battle for second. I’m giving the latter a slight edge. It’s also feasible that How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World could stay in the runner-up spot behind the latest MCU juggernaut.

Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:

1. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $71.3 million

2. Five Feet Apart

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

3. Wonder Park

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (March 1517)

I’ll give myself a little pat on the back with my Captain Marvel prediction as it made $153.4 million and I was just a million off at $154.4 million. That’s a sterling start for Brie Larson’s heroine and I look for this to fall around 53% in its second frame.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World fell to second with $14.6 million. I was a touch higher at $16.6 million. Total is $119 million.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral was third with $12.4 million (I said $11 million) for $46 million overall in two weeks.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part made $3.8 million for fourth place. My $3.9 million forecast was right there. It’s nearly at the century mark with $97 million.

Alita: Battle Angel rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $4 million) for $78 million to date.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Captain Marvel

The MCU appears poised to have another blockbuster on their hands this weekend with the release of Captain Marvel. Reviews were embargoed for a little longer than usual for the multi billion dollar franchise, but they’re out and critical reaction has been fairly solid. The Brie Larson led pic stands at 84% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s just a percentage point behind last year’s Avengers: Infinity War – while nowhere near the 97% achieved by Black Panther.

It was, of course, Panther that became the first superhero flick to nab a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. That won’t happen here. The storyline as far as this MCU title’s awards chances is the same as most of them and that’s Visual Effects.

Nine MCU entries have nabbed nods in Visual Effects. Interestingly, none of them have won. Competition this year will be stiff. There’s another franchise effort (Avengers: Endgame) that likely has a better shot. That’s in addition to expected players such as the next Star Wars, The Lion King, and Alita: Battle Angel, to name just some.

Bottom line: Captain Marvel will bring audiences in. Awards chatter is more of a reach. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

March 8-10 Box Office Predictions

The MCU will undeniably be the captain this weekend at the box office as Captain Marvel blasts into multiplexes. The pic comes off a banner 2017 for the studio that saw Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War dominate the year. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/27/captain-marvel-box-office-prediction/

My forecast north of $150 million gives it the seventh largest opening of the franchise. I believe it will help tremendously that it’s seen as a bridge between Infinity War and next month’s Avengers: Endgame.

No other studio bothered to open anything against the MCU juggernaut. That means two-time champ How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World will dip to second position. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opened well, but it should experience a rather hefty decline as other Madea titles have. Holdovers Alita: Battle Angel and The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part might be close vying for fourth place.

And with that, my top 5 take on the Marvel-ous weekend:

1. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $154.4 million

2. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral

Predicted Gross: $11 million

4. Alita: Battle Angel

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (March 13)

As mentioned, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World stayed atop the charts for a second time despite Madea. The Dreamworks Animation pic took in $30 million, a bit under my $32.2 million projection. It’s staring at the century mark with $97 million.

Tyler Perry has claimed A Madea Family Funeral is the character’s swan song. If so, she went out on a high note with $27 million compared to my $22.8 million estimate. That’s the franchise’s third best starting haul.

Alita: Battle Angel was third with $7.2 million (I said $6.3 million) for $72 million overall.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part was fourth with $6.6 million. I was lower at $5.3 million. It’s built its earnings up to $91 million.

Fighting with My Family was fifth at $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It’s made $14 million in two weeks.

Greta was the weekend’s non-Madea newbie and it debuted in eighth place with a ho-hum $4.4 million. I had it at $5.6 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

As the Oscars aired last night, it seems appropriate as 2019’s Best Picture front-runner Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opens this weekend and tries to dislodge How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World from the top spot after its franchise best opening. We also have the horror drama Greta with Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Grace Moretz out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/23/tyler-perrys-a-madea-family-funeral-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/25/greta-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Perry may have to settle for second place as I have the alleged Madea finale getting a low 20s start (the possibility of mid to high 20s is certainly feasible). Dragon exceeded expectations and may see a low 30s sophomore frame.

As for Greta, it’s being released on a surprisingly hefty 2000 screens. I still think it will struggle and settle for fourth after Alita: Battle Angel, with The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part rounding out the top five.

And here’s my projections for the weekend ahead:

1. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $32.2 million

2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

3. Alita: Battle Angel

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

4. Greta

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (February 2224)

As mentioned, the Dreamworks Animation franchise finale How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World rode out on a high note with $55 million, easily surpassing my $44.7 million prediction. In this young year, that’s the largest opening thus far (Captain Marvel will change that in short order).

Alita: Battle Angel dropped to second with $12.3 million, in line with my $12.9 million forecast for a two-week tally of $61 million.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part was third with $9.6 million compared to my $11.2 million take. Overall earnings are $83 million.

The wrestling biopic Fighting with My Family expanded nationwide and was fourth with $7.8 million, not matching my $10.8 million projection.

Isn’t It Romantic rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.1 million). It’s made out with $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Dreamworks Animation hopes to jolt the box office from a poor President’s Day weekend with the release of franchise finale How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. We also have the nationwide expansion of the wrestling biopic Fighting with My Family entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/13/how-to-train-your-dragon-the-hidden-world-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/14/fighting-with-my-family-box-office-prediction/

Dragon should have zero trouble opening atop the charts with my mid 40s projection. That puts it in range with its two predecessors.

The fight for the #2 spot could get interesting. This post holiday frame often sees large drops for holdovers. I expect that will apply to current champ Alita: Battle Angel and Isn’t It Romantic in particular. Family has sleeper potential, but I have it falling below Angel and The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, with Romantic rounding out the top five.

And here are those estimates for a weekend ending with crowning Oscar winners:

1. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $44.7 million

2. Alita: Battle Angel

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Fighting with My Family

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. Isn’t It Romantic

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (February 1518)

As mentioned, this holiday weekend marked the poorest one for President’s Day (with Valentine’s Day falling on Thursday) in a decade and a half. And it was especially weak considering this frame last year marked the massive debut of Black Panther. That said, some features managed to exceed my expectations while one in particular definitely didn’t.

Alita: Battle Angel took in $33.5 million from Friday to Monday and $42.2 million counting its Thursday earnings. This is well above my respective predictions of $19.7 million and $24.8 million. So while I certainly failed to give the science fiction action tale its due, this is still underwhelming considering its reported gigantic budget.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part dropped to second with $27.7 million, on target with my $27.8 million take. It’s made $62 million in two weeks.

Rom com satire Isn’t It Romantic premiered in third with $16.6 million and $22.8 million since its midweek rollout. That topped my expectations of $14.3 million and $20.7 million.

In its sophomore outing, What Men Want was fourth at $12.2 million (I said $13 million). The total is $37 million.

Finally, Blumhouse horror sequel Happy Death Day 2U opened in fifth and that was surprising. I thought it even had at a shot at first, but it earned a measly $11 million over the long weekend and $14.7 million counting Wednesday and Thursday numbers. My forecasts of $22 million and $28.6 million were a little off… However, the silver lining for its studio is that it only cost about $9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 15-18 Box Office Predictions

It’s the four-day President’s Day weekend at the box office with Valentines Day falling on Thursday. That means the trio of newcomers out are hitting screens during the week. They are Blumhouse horror sequel Happy Death Day 2U, James Cameron penned sci-fi graphic novel adaptation Alita: Battle Angel, and romantic comedy satire Isn’t It Romantic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/06/happy-death-day-2u-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/06/alita-battle-angel-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/07/isnt-it-romantic-box-office-prediction/

Before the weekend began, it was pretty much a given that The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part would repeat rather easily at #1 over this long frame. Now with it’s much less than forecasted debut (more on that below), there’s some uncertainty. What should help is that both Death Day and Romantic come out on Wednesday with Alita following on Thursday. This particular weekend typically sees small declines for holdovers considering the extra day involved. In 2014, the first Lego Movie dipped a scant 9%. I’ve got the sequel dropping more than that, but I’ve still topping the charts.

That is, of course, if none of the newbies over perform and that’s certainly possible (especially with Death Day part deux in my opinion). Yet the Wednesday premiere still leads me to think it could be a tad front loaded.

That means I have slots 2-4 reserved for the debuts with What Men Want rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I have the high-five shaking out and keep in mind these projections are for Friday through Monday.

1. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

2. Happy Death Day 2U

Predicted Gross: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)

3. Alita: Battle Angel

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)

4. Isn’t It Romantic

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (Friday to Monday); $20.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

5. What Men Want

Predicted Gross: $13 million

Box Office Results (February 810)

It was a weekend with four newcomers and they all came in under my expectations and none more so than The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. The animated sequel had no problem nabbing the top spot, but it was a hollow victory as it earned $34.1 million. That’s less than half of what its predecessor started with five years ago and well below my $48.6 million prediction. Warner Bros may be forced to rethink the future of the franchise while they cross their fingers for a minimal drop this weekend.

What Men Want opened in so-so fashion in second with $18.2 million, below my forecast of $26.4 million. The comedic remake with Taraji P. Henson came in on the low-end of its range.

Same story for Cold Pursuit as the Liam Neeson action thriller was third with $11 million (I was higher at $12.8 million). Neeson received all the wrong kinds of publicity in the lead up to the release and it certainly didn’t help.

On a rare positive note for this weekend, The Upside continued its remarkable hold in fourth with $7 million compared to my $5.8 million take. The gross is currently $85 million as the century club appears assured.

Glass, after two weeks in first, slid to fifth with $6.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and it’s scratching the $100 million mark at $98 million.

Horror flick The Prodigy was sixth with just $5.8 million, in line with my $6.1 million prediction. Look for it to disappear quickly.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Alita: Battle Angel Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular Japanese graphic novel, the sci-fi action spectacle Alita: Battle Angel is finally ready for release next Thursday. Robert Rodriguez serves as director with a screenplay from another well-known auteur by the name of James Cameron (as well as Laeta Kalogridis). Rosa Salazar provides the voice and motion capture work for the title character and other cast members include Christoph Waltz, Jennifer Connelly, Mahershala Ali, Ed Skrein, and Jackie Earle Haley.

Alita was originally slated for release last summer before being pushed back to December. The folks at 20th Century Fox moved it from that crowded marketplace to Valentine’s Day. However, other movies should still be a factor. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part will likely top the charts in its second frame while horror sequel Happy Death Day 2U opens and provides some direct audience competition.

The reported budget here is rumored to be possibly $200 million. The visuals have been praised while the film itself has had a mixed critical reaction (57% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Alita is tracking to be a disappointment stateside considering the price tag and I agree with that assessment. I’ll say it manages high teens to low 20s for the traditional Friday to Monday portion of the Presidents Day frame, which should mean mid 20s when factoring in the Thursday gross.

Alita: Battle Angel opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)

For my Happy Death Day 2U prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/06/happy-death-day-2u-box-office-prediction/

For my Isn’t It Romantic prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/07/isnt-it-romantic-box-office-prediction/