Rule Breakers is the latest inspirational drama from Angel Studios which casts Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a teacher guiding Afghan women. Bill Guttentag directs with Ali Fazal, Fahim Fazli, and Nikohl Boosheri among the costars.
Shot for a reported $8 million, Rule hopes to break into the consciousness of the faith-based audience that its studio caters to. That probably means an opening weekend in the lower to mid single digits. Angel’s last three efforts were Bonhoeffer (which started with $5.5 million), Homestead ($6 million), and Brave the Dark with just $2.3 million.
I think this should go higher than Dark while not reaching the debuts of the other two.
Rule Breakers opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Blogger’s Note (05/24): I am revising my Kandahar prediction from $7.9 million to $4.2 million
Gerard Butler hopes to land a solid opening with Kandahar, his latest action thriller that reunites him with Angel Has Fallen director Ric Roman Waugh. Rolling out over the long Memorial Day weekend, costars include Navid Negahban, Ali Fazal, Bahador Foladi, Nina Toussaint-White, and Travis Fimmel.
Looking over the recent filmography, Butler’s efforts have posted divergent results. Den of Thieves made just north of $15 million five years ago. On the flip side, Hunter Killer from 2018 only did $6.6 million.
Plane from this January also premiered over a four-day MLK frame with $11.8 million overall on its way to $32 million domestically. Its simple concept may sell better than Kandahar. I’ll project the Friday to Monday take falls below double digits.
Kandahar opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Tomorrow morning, Kenneth Branagh appears poised to land nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay for his passion project Belfast. Before he made that Oscar contender, he shot Death on the Nile. A follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express, the pic has faced a turbulent journey to the big screen (it opens Friday).
Originally slated for October 2020, Nile experienced numerous COVID related delays. Then there was the matter of its costar Armie Hammer having a massive public relations fallout due to revelations about his personal life.
Four Oscars ago, I actually predicted Orient would receive a Costume Design nomination and it was certainly in the running for Production Design. It came up empty handed. The review embargo for Nile lapsed today and it currently stands at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s better than the 60% that its predecessor garnered and many critics are claiming that this is an improvement.
That said, I don’t envision any nods (even the aforementioned tech races) materializing for this. It will probably be long forgotten in voters minds a year from now. Branagh, on the glass full side, should be pleased with the forthcoming Belfast love. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Hercule Poirot is back in mystery solving form (quite a while after he was supposed to be) when Death on the Nile sets sail in theaters on February 11th. The follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express finds Kenneth Branagh back as the famed Agatha Christie sleuth. As he did with Express, the star directs himself. Tom Bateman reprises his role from the predecessor. The supporting cast includes Annette Bening, Russell Brand, Ali Fazal, Dawn French, Gal Gadot, Armie Hammer (the pic was shot was shot prior to troubling details about his personal life surfaced), Rose Leslie, Emma Mackey, Sophie Okonedo, Jennifer Saunders, and Letitia Wright.
Budgeted at a reported $90 million, Nile was originally slated for multiplexes in December 2020 before numerous COVID delays. In that time, Branagh made Belfast and it’s become one of the favorites to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Back in 2017, Orient debuted to a better than anticipated $28 million. It stalled a bit in subsequent weekends, but eventually hit just over $100 million domestically. At that time, audiences gave it a B Cinemascore grade – not bad though certainly not impressive.
That calls into question whether moviegoers will be excited for another dose of Poirot and his suspects. Furthermore, Nile will attempt to skew towards a female crowd. Some could be distracted with the release of the Jennifer Lopez rom com Marry Me. There’s also a football game on Sunday that could eat into the grosses.
I deduce that this might make about half of what Express accomplished for its start.
Death on the Nile opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
Victoria & Abdul has screened at the Venice Film Festival and the late 19th century period piece has been looked at as potentially scoring Judi Dench her eighth Oscar nomination. Why? Well, pretty simple: 1) it’s Judi Dench; 2) it casts her once again as Queen Victoria, whom she played in 1997’s Mrs. Brown where she landed her first nod; 3) it reunites her with her Philomena director Stephen Frears where she received her seventh nomination; and 4) it’s Judi Dench, people.
Predictably, the Dame has garnered solid notices for her return to the role two decades later. That said, competition is becoming fierce in the Actress race. Both the Venice and Telluride Festivals have showcased potential nominees such as Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes, Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, and Annette Bening in Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. That’s in addition to some performances with promise like Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Jennifer Lawrence in Mother!, as well as pics to be screened later showcasing Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game) and Meryl Streep (The Post).
There’s only five nominations to go around and Dench could find herself on the outside looking in. It’s also highly unlikely costar Ali Fazal or the Picture or Director will find themselves in contention.
Bottom line: it’s Judi Dench (once again), so there’s a chance but competition could provide some difficulties for nod #8.
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