Four days before Oscar nominations are revealed, Hollywood will throw their annual party and awards ceremony known as the Golden Globes, put on by the Hollywood Foreign Press (whoever they are). The always entertaining Ricky Gervais is back to host and the show honors 2015’s best in movies and television. I won’t bother with the TV stuff (just because I haven’t followed it anywhere close to what I do with film). As you may know, the Globes divide the picture and lead actor races in two: Drama and Musical/Comedy. This has been a source of some controversy recently with titles like The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle being questionably placed into Comedy. The ante was upped this year when Ridley Scott’s The Martian made that category. It has laughs to be sure, but really?
I’ll go through each race and predict the winners (and potential runner-up) and will update the blog either Sunday evening or Monday with how I did:
Best Picture (Drama)
Nominees:
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Outlook: Early critical precursors have placed Spotlight in the position of soft front runner for the Oscars and here. In fact, one of its main competitors The Big Short is in the other category so that helps even more. Potential spoilers could be Carol or just maybe Mad Max, but Spotlight is the odds on favorite here.
Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Runner-Up: Carol
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck
Outlook: Let’s dispense with the two outright comedies – Spy and Trainwreck – as they stand no real chance. Joy‘s mixed critical reaction probably leaves it out, too. So we’re down to The Big Short and The Martian. With the deserved controversy of having The Martian even here in the first place aside, Short seems to have the bigger momentum right now and it should edge out its main competitor.
Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Runner-Up: The Martian
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees:
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion
Outlook: While he’s famously never won an Oscar, Leo did take a Globe two years ago (in Comedy) for Wolf of Wall Street. Look for his dramatic work here to be recognized and it would frankly be fairly surprising if he didn’t win. I’d say Fassbender or maybe Cranston pose the only real upset threats.
Predicted Winner: DiCaprio
Runner-Up: Fassbender
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirise Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Outlook: My inkling here is that Blanchett and Mara will pretty much cancel each other out for their work in Carol. Vikander is a double nominee this year, but appears to be a long shot in this race especially. Ronan is certainly a possibility, but Larson is the likely recipient for her lauded work.
Predicted Winner: Larson
Runner-Up: Ronan
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffal0, Infinitely Polar Bear
Outlook: First things first – Pacino and Ruffalo have zero shot. Like the previously discussed race, I could see Bale and Carell canceling one another out and that leaves Mr. Damon.
Predicted Winner: Damon
Runner-Up: Bale
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Outlook: Schumer had her breakout role with Trainwreck and stands a chance, but this is probably Lawrence’s race to lose.
Predicted Winner: Lawrence
Runner-Up: Schumer
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Outlook: This race is a little trickier and could be ripe for an upset (Elba or Shannon wouldn’t shock me). However, this probably comes down to Rylance (who’s picked up numerous critic precursor notices) and Stallone (for the sentimental vote). I’m going with sentimentality trumping all else.
Predicted Winner: Stallone
Runner-Up: Rylance
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Outlook: Another race that could feature an upset (any one of these ladies are possible), but I’ll give the slight momentum to Leigh’s work.
Predicted Winner: Leigh
Runner-Up: Winslet
Best Director
Nominees:
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Outlook: Don’t see Haynes or Inarritu prevailing, so that leaves this question: will the HFPA go with the likely Best Drama Picture winner’s director (McCarthy) or the outstanding visual work from Miller or Scott. Miller has picked up a number of precursor awards, so I give him the edge over Scott and I ultimately believe he’ll eek out the victory here.
Predicted Winner: Miller
Runner-Up: McCarthy
As for the other categories – here are my picks
Best Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Runner-Up: The Big SHort
Best Score
Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight
Runner-Up: Carol
Best Song
Predicted Winner: “See You Again” from Furious 7
Runner-Up: “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Winner: Inside Out
Runner-Up: Anomalisa
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Winner: Son of Saul
Runner-Up: Mustang
And there you have it, folks! My Golden Globe predictions…
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