One year after winning the Directing Oscar for Best Picture winner Birdman, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu unleases The Revenant in theaters next Friday and the box office results could be quite impressive. Leonardo DiCaprio stars in the 19th century brutal tale of survival (complete with well publicized bear attacks) and the buzz has the actor in line to finally receive his elusive Academy Award. Costars include Tom Hardy, Domhnall Gleeson, and Will Poulter.
The Revenant looks like a good possibility for its own Picture nomination and reviews have mostly been solid, as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. The film has garnered much notice for its reported hellish production shoot. It will need to earn serious money domestically and overseas with a budget of around $135 million.
The marketing campaign for The Revenant has been strong and Leo is one of the few performers who legitimately brings out audiences due to his sterling track record. I suspect this will post an opening gross anywhere from the high 20s to high 30s and if it over performed, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to me.
The Revenant opening weekend prediction: $33.2 million
We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).
As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Brooklyn (+3)
Carol (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out (No Change)
11. The Hateful Eight (-2)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)
13. Trumbo (+6)
14. Son of Saul (+3)
15. The Danish Girl (+1)
16. Sicario (+5)
17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
18. Steve Jobs (-5)
19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
20. Creed (-8)
21. Joy (-2)
22. Love and Mercy (-1)
23. Anomalisa (-6)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)
13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)
15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)
16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)
17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)
DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)
9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)
11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)
12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)
8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Love and Mercy (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Son of Saul (-1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)
8. 99 Homes (No Change)
9. Sicario (+1)
10. Ex Machina (+1)
11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)
13. Joy (-4)
14. Trainwreck (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Room (+2)
Brooklyn (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Big Short (+1)
Steve Jobs (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (+1)
7. Trumbo (+3)
8. The Revenant (-2)
9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
10. Anomalisa (-2)
11. The Danish Girl (+1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie
7. When Marnie Was There
8. Home
Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol
7. Bridge of Spies
8. The Danish Girl
Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Martian
9. The Hateful Eight
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
11. MacBeth
Best Editing (First Time Predictions)
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight
7. The Martian
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Room
Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Suffragette
8. Trumbo
9. The Hateful Eight
10. MacBeth
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)
The Danish Girl
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Other Possibilities:
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Black Mass
6. Pan
7. The Hateful Eight
8. The Revenant
Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Walk
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. In the Heart of the Sea
8. Ex Machina
Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Jurassic World
7. The Hateful Eight
8. In the Heart of the Sea
Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
In the Heart of the Sea
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Jurassic World
Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
Carol
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Sicario
9. Brooklyn
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
11. Southpaw
Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)
“Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
“See You Again” from Furious 7
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Other Possibilities:
6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy
8. “So Long” from Concussion
Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:
9 Nominations
Carol
8 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
7 Nominations
The Revenant
6 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight
5 Nominations
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs
3 Nominations
The Big Short, Room
2 Nominations
Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk
And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.
For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.
And here we go, my friends:
Best Picture
Spotlight
The Revenant
Room
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out
11. The Big Short
12. Creed
13. Steve Jobs
14. Beasts of No Nation
15. Straight Outta Compton
16. The Danish Girl
17. Son of Saul
18. Anomalisa
19. Trumbo
20. Joy
21. Sicario
22. Love and Mercy
23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Todd Haynes, Carol
Other Possibilities:
6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn
10. Ryan Coogler, Creed
11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
12. Adam McKay, The Big Short
13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul
14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
15. David O. Russell, Joy
16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian
7. Will Smith, Concussion
8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
11. Michael Caine, Youth
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Other Possibilities:
6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
7. Christian Bale, The Big Short
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario
10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
11. Jacob Tremblay, Room
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Jane Fonda, Youth
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
8. Joan Allen, Room
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Son of Saul
Other Possibilities:
6. Love and Mercy
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. 99 Homes
9. Joy
10. Sicario
11. Ex Machina
12. Trainwreck
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
Carol
Steve Jobs
Room
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. The Martian
8. Anomalisa
9. Beasts of No Nation
10. Trumbo
11. Creed
12. The Danish Girl
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa.
And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…
We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.
And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?
Best Picture
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Creed
The Danish Girl
Joy
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs
Straight Outta Compton
Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)
Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
David O. Russell, Joy
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)
Best Actor
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Will Smith, Concussion
Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)
Best Supporting Actress
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Joan Allen, Room
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)
Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Love and Mercy
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Joy
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Youth
Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Anomalisa
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
The Big Short
Creed
The Martian
The Revenant
And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…
We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…
Let’s go!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS in SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Diane Ladd, Joy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Isabella Rossellini, Joy
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST ACTRESS
Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
BEST ACTOR
Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final cut.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Will Smith, Concussion
BEST DIRECTOR
Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
BEST PICTURE
I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in and it could fall off.
TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Creed
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
In the Heart of the Sea
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Comption
And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…
One of the huge shoes left to drop in the 2015 Oscar race did so as Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant screened for Academy voters last night. While official reviews are embargoed until next Friday, there was plenty of word that leaked out and it’s given us a general direction on its Oscar prospects.
The verdict? It sounds as if The Revenant is well on its way to a Best Picture and Director nomination. Some watchers loved it while others were more cautious, but its inclusion as a nominee in these big races seems pretty much assured right now.
Furthermore, last evening’s word of mouth indicates an unquestionable nomination for star Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s been nominated four times and never won. The fifth time, in a Best Actor race that is less competitive than in recent year, could finally be the charm. It appears less certain whether or not Tom Hardy will be a player in Supporting Actor, though that should become more clear when reviews are out late next week.
Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki is also being heaped with praise and he could be the first individual to win the race three times in a row (after Gravity and Birdman).
Of course, director Inarritu is the man behind Birdman and he saw that effort win himself an Oscar, as well as the film itself last year. History has a shot of repeating itself this time. And for all the deserved chatter over the years about the craziness of Leo being Oscar-less, it could be well on its way to changing quite soon.
We are back at it for my second round of Oscar predictions – October edition. The acting categories have been completed and we’ve arrived at Best Director with Best Picture up next. And from my initial round of estimates nearly two months ago, much has changed. In fact, only two of my five original picks remain: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant and Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs, who have both won this category before with Birdman and Slumdog Millionaire, respectively.
Out of the lineup are Todd Haynes (Carol), Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl), and David O. Russell (Joy). All remain possibilities. Joining the party are Tom McCarthy for Spotlight and Lenny Abrahamson for Room. Their pics have caught on as major festival favorites that are both set to hit screens nationwide in the next couple of weeks. For the fifth slot – there’s plenty of possibilities but I’m going with a bit of an upset name for now: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road. He’s a long respected director whose return to the franchise that made him famous over three decades ago was seen as a triumph and I could see his fellow auteurs honoring him.
We shall see how it plays out when my third round arrives in November, but for now:
We have arrived at the Best Director portion of my incredibly early Oscar predictions for 2015. When I made predictions in this category last year for 2014 pics, it yielded 3 of the five eventual nominees and the other two were listed as other possibilities.
In the Director race, it’s safe to assume that all predicted directors will likely see their pictures nominated as well (my Best Picture prognostications will be up tomorrow). My current field includes three previous winners: Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs (he won in 2008 for Slumdog Millionaire), Tom Hooper for The Danish Girl (he won in 2010 for The King’s Speech), and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant (he won just last year for Birdman). Other previous recipients like Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies), Robert Zemeckis (The Walk) and Ron Howard (In the Heart of the Sea) are certainly possible as well.
David O. Russell’s last three projects (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook) have been showered with Oscar love so I’ll include him for December’s Joy. And Carol has been receiving festival raves and that could bode well for Todd Haynes.
Others to keep an eye out for: if The Hateful Eight garners the kind of love that Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained did, Quentin Tarantino could find himself in the mix. And don’t count out George Miller, whose direction in particular was lauded for this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road.
And with that:
TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
David O. Russell, Joy
Other Possibilities:
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
Scott Cooper, Black Mass
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Sarah Gavron, Suffragette
Michael Grandage, Genius
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Angelina Jolie, By the Sea
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Jay Roach, Trumbo
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Paolo Sorrentino, Youth
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Denis Villeneueve, Sicario
Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
If you missed my previous entries covering the acting categories, they’re linked here:
Well it’s been nearly 24 hours since the 87th edition of the Academy Awards reached its conclusion and somewhere Neil Patrick Harris is still trying to make that “secret Oscar ballot” gag work. The show was, as usual, a mixed bag that went on far too long. It featured some solid musical numbers (Common and John Legend, Tim McGraw) and a truly memorable one with Lady Gaga paying tribute to the 50 year old Sound of Music, complete with a Julie Andrews cameo at the end.
Being the host is largely a thankless job but NPH did OK. I don’t think his performance was strong enough to warrant a return engagement, but you never know. I still say let Fallon and Timberlake do it or bring in Louis C.K. to really make things unpredictable.
There were some genuinely humorous bits like John Travolta making nice with Idina Menzel after butchering her name last year, but not close to enough to justify its laborious length which ran past midnight.
It was a mediocre ceremony that was truly made fascinating only by the real suspense generated with the top awards. OK, it was a given that Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette would take home acting trophies and they did. I admittedly let my heart and not mind pick Michael Keaton over Eddie Redmayne and was unsurprisingly proved wrong.
The genuine suspense came with Best Picture and Director where there was a real coin flip between Birdman and Boyhood. It got even more confusing when both The Grand Budapest Hotel and Whiplash started winning in categories they weren’t expected to. Could a massive upset be brewing with one of them?
Yet when Birdman took the Original Screenplay award over expected winner Budapest, it started to look like a good night for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s movie. He would win the Director prize and the film would win the biggest race of all.
This left Boyhood as the evening’s loser, picking up only Supporting Actress for Arquette. Birdman and Budapest won four awards with Whiplash at three. Interestingly, this Oscars had the rare occasion of all eight nominated features winning at least one race. My predictions were as uneven as the show… 12 for 20 and that is on the low end for this humble blogger.
So, all in all, a ho hum affair with some solid moments sprinkled throughout. By the end of the show, however, it wasn’t only Octavia Spencer that appeared exasperated by that flat NPH ballot gag.
Well here we go! The Oscars honoring the best of 2014 in film air this Sunday and after many round of predictions, it’s time to man up and pick up the winners for the final time in all major categories, minus documentary and short film contenders. For each race, I will predict the winner and a runner-up. On Sunday evening or Monday, I’ll post a recap of how I did.
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