Tag: academy awards

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 14th Edition

A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.

While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.

For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.

Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).

While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.

While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Queer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilites:

6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A New Kind of Wilderness

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anora

Blitz

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sing Sing

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible

Saturday Night

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilties:

6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Twisters

Conclave

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

1 Nomination

Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 8/10

A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 6/8

The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.

Best Ensemble

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

How I Did: 5/6

Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

How I Did: 5/6

A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/6

A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

How I Did: 4/6

Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Perez and not The Room Next Door.

Best Foreign Language Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 5/6

Flow and not Vermiglio.

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.

Best Comedy

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

How I Did: 5/6

I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/6

Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.

Best Costume Design

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in and not The Substance.

Best Hair and Makeup

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Song

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 5/6

“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.

Best Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 3/6

My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.

And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!

11 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist

7 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

5 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5

1 Nomination

Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

Chelsea Handler returns to host the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards occurring January 12th and tomorrow brings the nominations. The ceremony can often be a reliable barometer for the Oscars. In the last two years, it agreed on Picture and Director with the Academy and went 5 for 8 in the acting derbies.

At CCA, there are 10 Best Film contenders and then 6 in the other races. Here’s my projections along with a runner-up selection for all competitions. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with how I did and overall thoughts!

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

Runner- Up: September 5

Best Director

Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Runner-Up: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

Best Ensemble

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariane Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Runner-Up: Selena Gomez (Emila Pérez)

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Runner-Up: Yura Borisov (Anora)

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Best Foreign Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

Runner-Up: The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Transformers One, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Piece by Piece

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

Best Costume Design

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hair

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Song

“Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

Best Visual Effects

Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

Best Comedy

Anora, Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

Runner-Up: My Old Ass

Best Young Actor

Nykiya Adams (Bird), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail)

Runner-Up: Cailey Fleming (IF)

That works out to these numbers with The Brutalist leading with 11 and 4 movies tying with 10 nominations apiece:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

8 Nominations

Anora

7 Nominations

The Substance

6 Nominations

Challengers

4 Nominations

A Real Pain

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Maria, Nickel Boys

1 Nomination

Oscar Predictions – The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Tolkien goes anime when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim marches into multiplexes this weekend. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s blockbuster trilogy,
Kenjii Kamiyama helms the fantasy adventure with Brian Cox, Gaia Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing vocal support.

Word-of-mouth is rather middling with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 58 Metacritic. While the live-action LOTR flicks all received Best Picture noms (with capper The Return of the King winning), Rohirrim appears on the outside looking in. The Animated Feature five already seems set with The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, Flow, Memoir of a Snail, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Surprises are always possible, but it won’t be this getting into the race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Complete Unknown

James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is picking up the kind of precursor recognition that may lead to a Best Picture nomination. Whether it ultimately makes the cut is, well, a complete unknown. The Fox Searchlight release is out Christmas Day with Timothée Chalamet as the legendary singer and Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy providing support.

The review embargo is lifted with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and 70 on Metacritic. It is fair to say critical reaction is more mixed than plenty of other contenders. Yet praise for Chalamet’s work is consistent and he appears poised for his second Academy nod after being up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. This time he’ll be playing in lead and he’s a threat to win. As for the rest of the cast, Norton (as Pete Seeger) just landed a Golden Globe nod. His inclusion at the Oscars is possible, but not a slam dunk like the headliner. Fanning and Barbaro are both generating complimentary notices, but Supporting Actress may be too crowded.

Down the line nods like Costume Design, Production Design, and (especially) Sound are achievable though I wouldn’t be surprised to see none of those ultimately materialize. The biggest question mark is indeed Picture. I don’t see Director and Adapted Screenplay happening. Unknown has made the AFI and NBR top tens and got a Best Motion Picture (Drama) slot at the Globes where they honor six hopefuls.

Mangold’s Walk the Line from 2005 (his biopic about Johnny Cash) received a handful of nods. Reese Witherspoon took home the Actress statue as June Carter Cash while Joaquin Phoenix was nominated for Actor. It contended in Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound. I see a range of possibilities for Complete. One is Chalamet being nominated (a given) and that’s it. Under that scenario, a win could be trickier. He could also be in the mix with perhaps just Sound or another tech race or two. A best case scenario would be Unknown grabbing the ninth or tenth BP spot along with a combo of the aforementioned. It that happens, it’ll be an honor for it to be nominated in the biggest race while Chalamet goes for the victory. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

82nd Golden Globes Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for perhaps the most recognizable Oscar precursor show were unveiled this morning. We now know the pictures and personnel contending for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, airing January 5th with Nikki Glaser hosting.

There are always surprises to be found with unexpected additions and subtractions in the cinematic races and that held true. I went 74 for 92 in my predictions. Of the 15 feature film categories, I went 6/6 in five of them.

As I projected, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez led the way with 10 nominations followed by The Brutalist‘s seven and Conclave‘s 6. Let’s break down each competition with how I did and some commentary on where I see the races currently.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in over Sing Sing. Perhaps the biggest shocker of the day is Sing Sing only generating one nomination for its lead Colman Domingo in Actor (Drama). Nickel Boys and September 5‘s noms mark their sole mentions. The Brutalist is probably out front but I wouldn’t sleep on Conclave.

Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Pérez could emerge here considering the haul this morning though Anora and Wicked (to a slightly lesser degree) are possibilities.

Best Director

Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

How I Did: 4/6

I did not have Berger (thought he was my runner-up) or Kapadia. Instead, I predicted Jon M. Chu (Wicked) and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. The latter is a surprising omission three years after he missed the cut at Oscar. Corbet is the favorite in my estimation even if it doesn’t take Motion Picture (Drama).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)

How I Did: 4/6

Anderson (my runner-up) and Torres are in contention over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. Jean-Baptiste is racking up critics awards and her omission is a bit unexpected. If Ronan can’t make it here, her Oscar odds are in serious trouble. This could come down to Jolie vs. Kidman. Fun fact: none of the pictures represented here are up for Best Drama (the only acting category where that is the case).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 6/6

No surprises here as Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are vying for the statue.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)

How I Did: 5/6

Runner-up Adams is in over June Squibb (Thelma). Madison has the edge though I wouldn’t discount Erivo, Gascón, or Moore for the upset.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

How I Did: 4/6

LaBelle and Plemons in with Michael Keaton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) and Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool & Wolverine) out. I don’t really think there’s a frontrunner though Eisenberg and Powell are maybe in the lead with Grant as a legit threat.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 6/6

Frankly I’m a little shocked I went 6 for 6 as there’s lots of contenders in this derby. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) is a snub many are pointing out. As for the winner, this is Grande vs. Saldaña.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Culkin is getting lots of critics prize love while Pearce and Washington are threats. I didn’t have Norton or Strong and instead went with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). I still think both of those performers could get into the Oscar dance.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/6

Had Sing Sing instead of A Real Pain as Anora looks to nab this one.

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

This went as planned and The Wild Robot looks to capture this prize with Flow (a critics darling) looking to disrupt that plan.

Best Foreign Language Motion Picture

Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

How I Did: 5/6

Logic says Perez, but Kapadia’s directing nod opens for the door for Light.

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/8

Went with Despicable Me 4 and Dune: Part Two and not Romulus and The Wild Robot. Dune missing is head scratching. This would be a good place to honor Wicked though Deadpool is the year’s largest grosser.

Best Score

Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

This looks kinda wide open to me at the moment, but The Brutalist might be the slight favorite.

Best Song

Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 3/6

The blasted Song category represents my worst performance as “Beautiful” and “Compress” and “Forbidden” make the playlist over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, and “Piece by Piece” from the same titled feature. Betting odds favor Pérez and I’d go with “El Mal” though “Sky” is a possibility.

I’ll have winner predictions shortly before the January 5th ceremony and here’s a breakdown of all the features nominated.

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Conclave

5 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

Challengers, A Real Pain, Wicked, The Wild Robot

3 Nominatons

A Complete Unknown

2 Nominations

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, The Last Showgirl

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Heretic, Hit Man, Kinds of Kindness, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, Queer, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, Sing Sing, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Oscar Predictions: The Six Triple Eight

Focused on the sole predominantly black female battalion to serve overseas in WWII as postal clerks, Tyler Perry is behind the camera for The Six Triple Eight. Kerry Washington leads a cast that includes Ebony Obsidian, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Susan Sarandon, Dean Norris, Sam Waterston, and Oprah Winfrey. The war drama is in limited release this weekend before a Netflix bow on December 20th.

This doesn’t sound like it will turn out to be Madea Goes to the Oscars. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 57. There is praise for some of the performances and highlighting an underreported true story. Yet reviews aren’t strong enough for this to be a contender… with one notable exception.

Diane Warren contributed “The Journey” to the soundtrack and it’s performed by H.E.R. As is the stuff of Oscar lore, Warren has 15 tunes that have been nominated for Best Original Song. These include “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, “Because You Love Me” from Up Close & Personal, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. Her 15th nod arrived last year courtesy of “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot. She’s 0 for 15 as far as victories. H.E.R., on the other hand, was victorious in Original Song at the 93rd ceremony courtesy of “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah. Don’t be surprised if “The Journey” makes the cut for Warren’s 16th recognition, but I don’t see it winning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Return

Out in limited fashion today, The Return reimagines no less than Homer’s Odyssey with Uberto Pasolini directing. The Bleecker Street release premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and it reunites Ralph Fiennes and Juliette Binoche, stars of 1996’s Best Picture winner The English Patient. Charlie Plummer, Tom Rhys Harries, and Marwan Kenzari provide support.

Reviews are respectful with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 68 on Metacritic. As expected, praise for the leads are present with some complaints about pacing. Fiennes is in the 2024 Best Actor mix, but not for this. His performance in Conclave is expected to earn him a slot. Don’t expect any noms or buzz to greet The Return at this late stage in the awards calendar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

AFI Awards 2024: Reaction

Each year the American Film Institute (AFI) names their ten best films of the year and it’s become a reliable bell weather for 7-8 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars. How about a look at the past 15 years and their track record since the Academy expanded to more than five BP contenders?

2009: 5/10 match

2010: 9/10

2011: 7/9

2012: 8/9

2013: 7/9

2014: 6/8

2015: 6/8

2016: 7/9

2017: 7/9

2018: 5/8

2019: 7/9

2020: 6/8

2021: 8/10

2022: 7/10

2023: 8/10

There’s an important caveat as this is the American Film Institute. Therefore movies considered international do not make the cut. They often get a “special” award and that was the case with Roma, Parasite, and The Banshees of Inisherin.

Today’s AFI announcement was surprising in the sense that there was only one. Emilia Pérez was thought by most to be ineligible for the 10 due to its foreign flavor, but it managed to make the cut. The AFI list is as follows:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Wicked

Not a shocker in the group. This seems like a key inclusion for Nickel Boys and A Real Pain in solidifying their status as legit BP players. I suspect that if some prognosticators knew Emilia would be eligible, several of them would’ve gone 10/10.

Let’s analyze, shall we? The AFI has a habit of naming mainstream pics that the Academy ignores. Examples in the last decade include Into the Woods, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Zootopia, Wonder Woman, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Soul, Nope, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Note the amount of animated features. This is where a nod for The Wild Robot wouldn’t have been unexpected. The fact that it didn’t land here is an indication of its chances in the Academy’s BP derby… none. The same might be said for Gladiator II. It’s been out of my top 10 and I had it placed 13th in Other Possibilities last weekend. Don’t be surprised it drops out of the top 15 in my next update.

Other features that could have benefitted from a spot here include The Substance, September 5, Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door, and recent Gotham recipient A Different Man.

That said… we don’t expect this to be the Oscar top ten…

Do we?!? It sure could be. Yes, that would be the first time AFI and the Academy match 10/10. Yet the only difference I have right now is The Substance over A Complete Unknown and the latter seems to be picking up some steam. We still have Critics Choice and their top ten en route. They’re another pretty reliable barometer. I’ll say right now, though, that at least 8 of AFI’s picks will be the Academy’s and perhaps more…

Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor chatter!

The NBR Gets Wicked

The National Board of Review often marches to the beat of its own awards drum when it comes to selecting their annual pictures and performers. In 2014, only four of their eleven top movies ended up generating an Academy nomination for Best Picture. In the past decade, there’s been one other year with just four and three years where it was five and two where it was six. There’s three other years where it’s seven and that’s as high as it gets. In most years, NBR names a Best Film with ten other favorite movies listed alphabetically. During that time period, here’s just a sampling of NBR top films that probably never came close to an Oscar BP nod: Fury, The LEGO Movie, Hail, Caesar!, Patriots Day, Baby Driver, Downsizing, Waves, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Red Rocket, and Ferrari.

I give all that context because there were some unexpected selections in their list today… but not really given their history. Jon M. Chu’s Wicked is Best Film. That one is anticipated to generate an Academy BP slot. This particular group often goes with blockbuster material like Wicked for their winner. Recent examples include Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015 (guess we should’ve seen that Furiosa nod coming) and Top Gun: Maverick in 2022.

Some others… not so much. The other ten are as follows: Anora, Babygirl, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Juror #2, Queer, A Real Pain, and Sing Sing. Only half of those features (Wicked, Anora, Conclave, A Real Pain, Sing Sing) are currently in my Oscar BP ten. Babygirl, Furiosa, Juror #2, and Queer likely stand little chance at the big dance while A Complete Unknown and Gladiator II have better shots.

There are some notable omissions from the list like The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and Dune: Part Two. That said, recent BP victors The Shape of Water, Parasite, and CODA were nowhere to be found with NBR.

The Wicked love continued in Director with Jon M. Chu being named. You have to go all the way to Martin Scorsese and 2006’s The Departed for the last NBR/Oscar match.

Nicole Kidman is your Best Actress for Babygirl and Daniel Craig is Best Actor for Queer. Both are considered bubble candidates for Oscar (I currently have Craig in and Kidman out). I will note that 8 of the last 10 NBR Actress winners have achieved an Academy spot. In Actor, it’s also 8.

Kieran Culkin racked up another Supporting Actor prize (right after the New York Film Critics Circle) for A Real Pain and Elle Fanning is Supporting Actress (a bit of an out of nowhere pick) for A Complete Unknown. The previous 10 Supporting Actor victors for NBR received Oscar attention as Culkin is expected to. For Supporting Actress, it’s 8.

In other NBR news for categories that correlate to the Academy Awards, Hard Truths and Sing Sing are your respective Original and Adapted Screenplay recipients. Flow snatched another Animated Feature trophy while The Seed of the Sacred Fig is their #1 International Feature. The Documentary prize went to Sugarcane with Nosferatu triumphant in Cinematography.

Keep an eye on this blog for all precursor Oscar chatter!