The Oscar Watch posts continue as the Toronto Film Festival does with Denial, a true-life legal drama pitting a historian (Rachel Weisz) against a Holocaust denier (Timothy Spall). Mick Jackson directs and he’s had quite the varied career that includes the 1992 blockbuster The Bodyguard, in addition to flops like 1994’s Dana Carvey comedy Clean Slate and 1997 disaster pic Volcano. He’s found greater success on TV recently, like with 2010’s Temple Grandin.
Early festival reviews are mostly positive, but not to the level where I expect Best Picture or Director attention. In a year where the Best Actress was less competitive (and there’s been those in recent years), previous winner Weisz may stand a chance at recognition. I don’t expect that to be the case in 2016 where several performances already seem to be in contention. They include Emma Stone (La La Land), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals or Arrival), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). And we still have Viola Davis (Fences) and Annette Bening (20th Century Women) out there for their pics to screen. In other words, it may be too crowded.
Timothy Spall may be another story if Bleecker Street chooses to mount a Supporting campaign for him. The well-respected British actor has yet to receive an Oscar nomination, even though many thought he should have gotten one two years ago for Mr. Turner. If the Supporting Actor race doesn’t get too crowded, he could be a factor.
Director J.A. Bayona’s name may not be too familiar yet with the moviegoing public. At least not yet. His two previous movies were acclaimed 2007 horror pic TheOrphanage and 2012’s Tsunami drama TheImpossible, which earned Naomi Watts a Best Actress nomination. His name ID will surely increase soon as he’s about to take on the sequel to last summer’s biggest blockbuster, JurassicWorld. Or perhaps even sooner with AMonsterCalls, his fantasy tearjerker which opens December 23rd statewide and screened at the Toronto Film Festival this weekend.
It’s been reported that Monster received a rapturous audience ovation after its premiere. Based on a 2011 bestseller by its author Patrick Ness, the film stars Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, newcomer Lewis MacDougall, and the voice of Liam Neeson as the calling title character. Buzz from Toronto suggests this is a weepie crowd pleaser that deals with serious themes such as parental loss coupled with more fantastical elements.
Not all critics seemed to fall for it with some calling it heavy handed. However, if Monster can break through at the box office, it could find itself with some Oscar talk in Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Certain technical category nods seem more likely. And Felicity Jones is said to be a highlight. She’s the It Girl of Fall 2016, appearing in this, Inferno alongside Tom Hanks, and headlining a little something called RogueOne: AStarWarsStory. Her inclusion in Supporting Actress for this one is not out of the question.
As Toronto continues, look for more Oscar Watch posts.
Amma Asante’s interracial romantic drama AUnitedKingdom has screened at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. The pic tells the true life story of the relationship between an African prince (David Oyelowo) and a London woman (Rosamund Pike) some seven decades ago.
Initial critical reaction has mostly been positive, but not to the level where Academy attention seems realistic. The lead performers have been on the radar screen of Oscar voters just two years ago when Pike nabbed a nomination for GoneGirl and Oyelowo surprisingly missed out on a nod for Selma.
If Kingdom somehow breaks through at the box office, the dynamic could change. However, that looks doubtful at this juncture. In fact, awards voters are far more likely to turn their attention to Jeff Nichols’ Loving, another mixed race drama that has received more buzz.
My Oscar Watch posts will continue as more Toronto hopefuls screen…
Over the weekend, the Toronto Film Festival screenings have dampened the hopes of some pictures to garner Oscar attention, most notably Ewan McGregor’s AmericanPastoral and Oliver Stone’s Snowden. Yet they can bolster the chances of others and that appears to be the case with Lion.
The pic tells the true life tale of a young Indian boy who is separated from his family in the mid 1980s and uses the resources of Google Earth to relocate them 25 years later. First time director Garth Davis is behind the camera and the film is produced by the Weinstein Company, whose founder Harvey has a knack for Oscar campaigning. Due to the participation of its lead Dev Patel and the geographic location, some early reviews have drawn comparisons to Danny Boyle’s SlumdogMillionaire, which won the big prize eight years ago.
While not all critical notices have been raves, Lion has been singled out as an inspiring crowd pleaser that the Academy could warm to. A Best Picture nod seems in reach and that could extend to Davis and Luke Davies for his Adapted Screenplay. As for the performers, Patel seems most likely to receive recognition. It isn’t 100% certain whether he will be campaigned for in lead Actor or Supporting. If he goes lead, there’s a chance that young Sunny Pawar (playing Patel’s character during the first hour) could get some buzz. Rooney Mara and especially Nicole Kidman could be factors in Supporting Actress.
Oliver Stone has won two Best Director Oscars for 1986’s Platoon and 1989’s BornontheFourthofJuly. He’s received little love from the Academy for the past two decades and his new true life political thriller Snowden hits screen next weekend.
It screened at the Toronto Film Festival this weekend. The verdict? Look for the lack of Oscar attention to continue. Some reviews marked it as a return to form for Mr. Stone, but others weren’t impressed. The tale of CIA analyst Edward Snowden (Joseph Gordon Levitt) had originally been scheduled to open late last year before being delayed.
The buzz is muted enough that I don’t expect any nominations for it, including its director, lead, and supporting cast that includes Shailene Woodley, Melissa Leo, Tom Wilkinson, Zachary Quinto, and Nicolas Cage.
As the Toronto Festival rolls along, so will my Oscar Watch posts.
The Toronto Film Festival, arriving just days after Venice and Telluride, will continue to shape this year’s Oscar race. Entries of past years have gone onto see numerous nominations. Just last year, half of the eventual Best Picture nominees played up north including the winner Spotlight. And there were a number of films that featured acting nominees.
My Oscar Watch coverage of Toronto begins with AmericanPastoral, Ewan McGregor’s directorial debut based on Philip Roth’s crime drama novel. It’s been on the radar screen of awards prognosticators for some time. McGregor also stars alongside previous winner Jennifer Connelly and Dakota Fanning.
In my first edition of weekly Academy predictions on Thursday, I listed Pastoral at #9 in the Picture race. The buzz coming from Toronto based on its screenings has changed that dynamic and not for the better. The pic received a number of mediocre reviews and it looks now as if Pastoral will be on the outside looking in for Oscar recognition. Its actors, too, are unlikely to find themselves in contention.
I’ll have the Oscar Watch posts continuing throughout the day… And throughout the festival.
As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.
When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.
Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.
Let’s get right to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1) La Land Land
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Silence
4) Fences
5) Moonlight
6) Loving
7) Manchester by the Sea
8) Nocturnal Animals
9) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
10) The Birth of a Nation
11) Lion
12) Jackie
13) Arrival
14) 20th Century Women
15) Hidden Figures
16) Sully
17) Passengers
18) Hell or High Water
19) Allied
20) Moana
21) The Founder
22) The Jungle Bok
23) Collateral Beauty
24) Gold
25) Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
5) Denzel Washington, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival
11) Garth Davis, Lion
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie
15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Denzel Washington, Fences
2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving
4) Michael Keaton, The Founder
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Possibilities:
6) Tom Hanks, Sully
7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9) Dev Patel, Lion
10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land
2) Viola Davis, Fences
3) Natalie Portman, Jackie
4) Ruth Negga, Loving
5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Other Possibilities:
6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Amy Adams, Arrival
10) Rooney Mara, Una
11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
15) Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2) Liam Neeson, Silence
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
10) Timothy Spall, Denial
11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
13) John Legend, La La Land
14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully
15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Other Possibilities:
6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
9) Nicole Kidman, Lion
10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars
15) Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Manchester by the Sea
2) Moonlight
3) La La Land
4) Loving
5) Jackie
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) The Birth of a Nation
10) The Founder
11) Zootopia
12) Gold
13) Passengers
14) Rules Don’t Apply
15) Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Nocturnal Animals
4) Silence
5) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
6) Lion
7) Hidden Figures
8) Arrival
9) Love & Friendship
10) The Girl on the Train
11) Elle
12) Sully
13) Live by Night
14) Denial
15) The Jungle Book
And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…
A number of recent Oscar Watch posts on this here blog has made one thing abundantly clear: the Best Actress race looks to be a competitive one in 2016. Already, Emma Stone (La La Land), Ruth Negga (Loving), Rooney Mara (Una), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), and Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals or Arrival) have established themselves as possibilities. And there’s still performers such as Viola Davis (Fences), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), and Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers) waiting in the wings.
Yet the race potentially got more interesting at the Venice Film Festival as Jackie has screened to some rave critical reaction. A biopic of First Lady Jacqueline Onassis Kennedy, it’s directed by acclaimed Chilean filmmaker Pablo Farrain and stars Natalie Portman in the title role. Early trade reviews have been over the moon with Portman’s portrayal, with one of them claiming that it may surpass her Oscar winning work in 2010’s Black Swan.
Interestingly, unlike most biopics, this is not based on a book or series of them. Therefore, this could qualify for an Original Screenplay nod. Based on the buzz so far, the love could perhaps extend to the Picture itself and Mr. Farrain.
Yet Jackie is most likely to garner attention for the woman playing her (whether costars such as Greta Gerwig, Peter Sarsgaard and Billy Crudup get noticed remains to be seen). Portman hasn’t really had a buzzed about awards role since Swan six years ago and this appears to be just that. As long as Jackie finds a distributor to give it 2016 consideration (something that will probably occur this week), we appear to have another major factor in an already crowded category.
Critics have been singing the praises of English actress Sally Hawkins for years and awards voters have occasionally taken note. Her work in 2008’s Happy–Go–Lucky won her a Best Actress Golden Globe in the Musical/Comedy race (she missed the cut on an Oscar nod). The Academy did at last recognize her with a Supporting Actress nom for 2013’s BlueJasmine.
The Telluride Film Festival has opened up the possibility for her first lead Actress nod for Maudie. It screened over the weekend and casts Hawkins in a biopic of Canadian folk artist Maud Lewis, who suffers from serious physical disabilities. Aisling Walsh directs with Ethan Hawke as co-lead.
Reviews for the film itself were mixed and it stands no real at recognition from the Academy other than for Ms. Hawkins. If a distributor gets this out before year’s end and mounts a campaign, she could find herself in the mix of what’s looking like a very crowded Actress race.
As the Telluride Film Festival has wound to a close, we have another contender in one particular category to discuss. Wakefield is a family drama from director Robin Swicord, a screenwriter known for works such as TheCuriousCaseofBenjaminButton. It’s based on a short story from E.L. Doctorow.
Reviews for the film have been mostly strong. Yet its only chance at Academy recognition is likely with its star, Bryan Cranston. The three-time Emmy winner for “Breaking Bad” got his first Oscar nod just last year with Trumbo.
Critics have signaled this is another highly powerful performance and Telluride has entered his name into the Best Actor discussion over the Labor Day weekend.
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