Tag: academy awards

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Here’s some developments from last week to this one:

  • On the Basis of Sex screened at the AFI Fest and I believe its Oscar hopes in all categories took a significant dip. We’ll see if it can rebound, but it’s dropped out of contention in Picture, Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), and Original Screenplay with Felicity Jones falling to #10 in Actress.
  • Speaking of AFI Fest, Mary Queen of Scots debuts this evening at the fest. By this time next week, I’ll have a much better idea as to its prospects.
  • Both Supporting categories experienced a change. I’ve moved Sam Rockwell (Vice) back in the top 5 with Adam Driver out. I’ve also put Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) in the predicted nominees with Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) out.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. First Man (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 10)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

12. Boy Erased (PR: 15)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

14. The Mule (PR: 13)

15. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)

3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

9. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 9)

10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 3)

2. Green Book (PR: 1)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 7)

7. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

8. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

9. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Border (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dogman

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Mirai (PR: 4)

5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 6)

8. Early Man (PR: 5)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Grinch

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)

2. Free Solo (PR: 1)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amazing Grace (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Quincy (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Science Fair

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. The Favourite (PR: 5)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

8. Widows (PR: 6)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Cold War (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

7. Roma (PR: 9)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

A Star Is Born

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 2)

2. The Favourite (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

5. Vice (PR: 4)

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Avengers: Infinity War 

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 4)

5. Annihilation (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 5)

7. Green Book (PR: 10)

8. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 9)

9. Roma (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)

5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)

8. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

9. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 8)

And that provides the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

9 Nominations

First Man, The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Widows, The Wife, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Minding the Gap.

And that does it for now! Until next week…

Oscar Watch: Ralph Breaks the Internet

Ralph Breaks the Internet is expected to easily hit the #1 spot at the box office over the Thanksgiving holiday. The film is Disney’s highly anticipated sequel to 2012’s Wreck-It-Ralph and reviews are out today.

The verdict? Much like its predecessor, critical notice is strong as it currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some early notices say it doesn’t quite match the original, but it’s all pretty much a positive vibe.

As to where that puts Internet in the Oscar race for Best Animated Feature, I’d say it’s almost certainly in. Wreck-It-Ralph also nabbed a nomination in that category, but lost to Disney/Pixar’s Brave. That would appear to be what will happen again as Ralph should get a nod and lose to the heroes of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.

Bottom line: Ralph officially broke into awards chatter today, but studio competition should keep it from achieving gold. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

For my Creed II prediction, click here:

Creed II Box Office Prediction

For my Robin Hood prediction, click here:

Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: The Grinch

Over the weekend, Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch dominated the box office with a mid 60s debut. The animated pic continues a string of pleasing grosses for the studio that houses the lucrative Despicable Me/Minions franchise.

Could that mean The Grinch finds its way into the mix for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars? It’s doubtful. For starters, reviews have been mixed as it currently sits at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. The race is also filling up with Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs with probable reserved spots and the upcoming Ralph Breaks the Internet looking to nab one. I feel that other wide release pics like Early Man and Smallfoot could also be potential contenders.

Most importantly, while Illumination produces blockbusters, that success hasn’t translated into nominations. Only Despicable Me 2 got one, with better reviewed titles like The Secret Life of Pets and other Despicable efforts left out.

Bottom line: the studio’s Grinch reward will come from its earnings and not awards ceremonies. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: On the Basis of Sex

The AFI Film Festival is underway and last night’s opening feature is the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic On the Basis of Sex with Felicity Jones in the starring role. It’s been quite a cinematic year for the Supreme Court Justice, as the documentary RBG appears well positioned to land a nod in that race at the Oscars.

So will this big screen rendering of her life follow suit? On the basis of its critical reaction, the verdict is probably in the negative. While some reviews have been positive, others are more mixed and it currently stands at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Best Actress is looking crowded this year and that likely leaves Jones out. The same holds true for supporting races with Armie Hammer and Kathy Bates. The latter has received some raves, but her role is said to be not much more than a cameo.

Bottom line: RBG’s chances for awards love lies most with the documentary and not this. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch – Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

J.K. Rowling’s world of wizardry is back in theaters next weekend with the release of Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. It’s the second in a series of five planned features as it looks to conjure up huge box office dollars like predecessor Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them did.

Early reviews are out and the reaction is mixed at 56% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Not even the most acclaimed Harry Potter pics were ever considered awards contenders for major categories. However, down the line technical races are another story.

Two years ago, the first Beasts managed two Oscar nominations: Production Design and Costume Design. It won the latter. There’s no reason to think it couldn’t be a factor in both of those categories again. That said, voters could feel they’ve already honored the franchise with part 1. Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling are in the realm of possibility, if unlikely.

Bottom line: the costumes especially could garner attention, but don’t expect Grindelwald to exceed (and maybe not match) the first movie.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 8th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:

  • Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
  • The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

7. First Man (PR: 6)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 12)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

13. The Mule (PR: 13)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)

15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Robert Forster, What They Had

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)

10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Leave No Trace

Best Original Screenplay

1. Green Book (PR: 3)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)

7. First Reformed (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 6)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)

8. Border (PR: 10)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Guility

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Mirai (PR: 4)

5. Early Man (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)

8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Night is Short, Walk on Girl

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Free Solo (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Science Fair (PR: 5)

9. Quincy (PR: 10)

10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Price of Everything

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 6)

7. Vice (PR: 5)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

July 22

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

4. The Favourite (PR: 6)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 9)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Cold War (PR: 5)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. First Man (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Roma (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Colette

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

5. Colette (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)

10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

A Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Favourite (PR: 3)

2. Black Panther (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Vice (PR: 5)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

7. Colette (PR: 9)

8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

10. Suspiria (PR: 8)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Roma (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ready Player One

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Annihilation (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Roma (PR: 4)

8. Suspiria (PR: 9)

9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)

10. Green Book (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

Incredibles 2

Colette

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)

9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)

10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)

And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

11 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book

4 Nominations

Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows

1 Nomination

At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap

 

Best Actor: A Look Back

My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:

Best Actress: A Look Back

Best Supporting Actor: A Look Back

Best Supporting Actress: A Look Back

As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.

As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:

1990 – Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune

1991 – Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs

1992 – Al Pacino, Scent of a Woman

1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia

1994 – Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump

1995 – Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas

1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine

1997 – Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets

1998 – Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful

1999 – Kevin Spacey, American Beauty

2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator

2001 – Denzel Washington, Training Day

2002 – Adrien Brody, The Pianist

2003 – Sean Penn, Mystic River

2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray

2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote

2006 – Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

2008 – Sean Penn, Milk

2009 – Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

2010 – Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

2011 – Jean Dujardin, The Artist

2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

2013 – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

2014 – Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

2016 – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

2017 – Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…

3. Al Pacino, Scent of a Woman

The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in Glengarry Glen Ross and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for The Revenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for There Will Be Blood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.

Now – my selections for the upsets:

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs

While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in The Prince of Tides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.

2. Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful

The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.

1. Adrien Brody, The Pianist

The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.

When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), and Denzel Washington (Flight).

For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (The Martian), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), and Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl).

And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 1st Edition

My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.

So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…

  • In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
  • In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
  • We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
  • For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.

And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

5. Green Book (PR: 4)

6. First Man (PR: 5)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)

12. Widows (PR: 10)

13. The Mule (PR: 12)

14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)

15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place

Eighth Grade

Boy Erased

Leave No Trace

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Mary Poppins Returns

The Hate U Give

Cold War

Ben Is Back

Hereditary

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Widows

Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

John Krasinski, A Quiet Place

Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns 

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher

Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)

10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Vice

Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite 

Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots 

Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Dianne Wiest, The Mule

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)

9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Boy Erased

Disobedience

The Sisters Brothers

The Wife

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

7. First Reformed (PR: 6)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. The Mule (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ben Is Back

Private Life

Hereditary

Stan and Ollie

Sorry to Bother You

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. Shoplifters

4. Girl

5. Capernaum

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning

7. Birds of Passage

8. The Guilty

9. Never Look Away

10. Border

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Mirai

5. Ruben Brandt, Collector

Other Possibilities:

6. Lu Over the Wall

7. Early Man

8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

10. Smallfoot

Best Documentary Feature

1. Free Solo

2. Three Identical Strangers

3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

4. RBG

5. Science Fair

Other Possibilities:

6. Minding the Gap

7. Dark Money

8. Crime + Punishment

9. The Price of Everything

10. Quincy

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born

2. Roma

3. First Man

4. The Favourite

5. Vice

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows

7. If Beale Street Could Talk

8. Black Panther

9. BlacKkKlansman

10. July 22

Best Cinematography

1. Roma

2. First Man

3. A Star Is Born

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Cold War

Other Possibilities:

6. The Favourite

7. Black Panther

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

9. Widows

10. Mary Queen of Scots

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. First Man

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Mary Queen of Scots

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born

7. Roma

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

9. Colette

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Queen of Scots

4. Colette

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians

7. A Star Is Born

8. If Beale Street Could Talk

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

10. A Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther

2. Mary Queen of Scots

3. The Favourite

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan and Ollie

5. Vice

6. Mary Poppins Returns

7. A Star Is Born

8. Suspiria

9. Colette

10. A Wrinkle in Time

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man

2. Black Panther

3. A Quiet Place

4. A Star Is Born

5. Incredibles 2

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

7. Avengers: Infinity War

8. Roma

9. Mary Poppins Returns

10. Annihilation

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man

2. A Star Is Born

3. A Quiet Place

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Roma

8. Incredibles 2

9. Avengers: Infinity War

10. Ready Player One

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. Black Panther

4. Ready Player One

5. Annihilation

Other Possibilities

6. Mary Poppins Returns

7. A Quiet Place

8. A Wrinkle in Time

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. First Man

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. Roma

5. Green Book

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots

7. Incredibles 2

8. Colette

9. Suspiria

10. The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther

3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born

4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give

Other Possibilities:

6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex

7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born

8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG

10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud

And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born, First Man

10 Nominations

The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2

1 Nomination

Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Oscar Watch: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Disney’s expensive rendering of The Nutcracker and the Four Realms dances into theaters on Friday and it does so with mostly negative reviews. It stands at just 26% on Rotten Tomatoes and the studio may have a rare commercial disappointment on their hands (the budget is a reported $130 million).

So why in the world am I doing an Oscar Watch post on it? Well, the one positive aspect most critics point out is its set design and outfits adorning the actors. That could put Nutcracker in a similar situation with the Mouse Factory’s live-action version of Alice in Wonderland in 2010.

That also received middling reviews (though it did very well financially). It was rewarded with nominations in Art Direction (now called Production Design) and Costume Design. Realms could certainly play in both of those categories and perhaps Makeup and Hairstyling. Wonderland also won Best Visual Effects, but that race could be a reach with this.

Bottom line: even though word-of-mouth is not strong, Nutcracker has a shot at some down-the-line categories.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Best Actress: A Look Back

Back at it again with my look back at major Oscar races from 1990 to the present! We’ve arrived at Best Actress. If you missed my previous posts covering the Supporting performers, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/25/best-supporting-actor-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/20/best-supporting-actress-a-look-back/

As I did with those posts, I’m selecting my top 3 least surprising winners and top 3 upsets. I’m also giving you my personal pick for strongest and weakest fields from the past 28 years.

For starters, here’s the list of winners from 1990 to now:

1990 – Kathy Bates, Misery

1991 – Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs

1992 – Emma Thompson, Howards End

1993 – Holly Hunter, The Piano

1994 – Jessica Lange, Blue Sky

1995 – Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking

1996 – Frances McDormand, Fargo

1997 – Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets

1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love

1999 – Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry

2000 – Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich

2001 – Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball

2002 – Nicole Kidman, The Hours

2003 – Charlize Theron, Monster

2004 – Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

2005 – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

2006 – Helen Mirren, The Queen

2007 – Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

2008 – Kate Winslet, The Reader

2009 – Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

2010 – Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2011 – Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

2012 – Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

2013 – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

2014 – Julianne Moore, Still Alice

2015 – Brie Larson, Room

2016 – Emma Stone, La La Land

2017 – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

When it comes to Best Actress, I must say it’s probably the race with the least amount of genuine upsets. Nearly every year, there’s a pretty strong front-runner and they win – even more so than in Actor and the Supporting players. Of many non-surprises, here’s my top ones:

3. Holly Hunter, The Piano

Hunter’s work as a mute piano player in Jane Campion’s period piece was the clear favorite over significant competition that included Angela Bassett in What’s Love Got to Do With It? and the previous year’s winner Emma Thompson in The Remains of the Day. 

2. Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich

One of Hollywood’s biggest stars had already received nods for Steel Magnolias and Pretty Woman and there was little question that Brockovich would earn Roberts her first and only (so far) trip to the Oscar stage.

1. Charlize Theron, Monster

Theron’s metamorphosis into serial killer Aileen Wuornos swept all precursors. The rest of the field was also fairly weak that year, making her the obvious victor.

And now the “upsets”…

3. Kate Winslet, The Reader

While not a surprise when she won Oscar night, the multi-nominated Winslet was expected for much of the year to get a nod for Revolutionary Road instead. Yet it was this Stephen Daldry drama that was selected instead.

2. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

This was a two-way contest between Cotillard and veteran Julie Christie for Away from Her, with many believing the latter had the edge. It didn’t turn out that way.

1. Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry and Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

This #1 comes with a caveat. It wasn’t much of an upset by the time Swank won her double Oscars. What’s interesting here is that she single-handedly denied two prime opportunities for the winless Annette Bening to get a statue for American Beauty and Being Julia. 

We move to the fields. For weakest field, I’m selecting 1994 when Jessica Lange won for the little-seen Blue Sky. Other nominees were Jodie Foster in Nell, Miranda Richardson in Tom&Viv, Winona Ryder for Little Women, and Susan Sarandon in The Client. 

Strongest group in my opinion goes to 2010 with Natalie Portman’s victorious role in Black Swan. The rest of that impressive field is Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence’s first nomination in Winter’s Bone, and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).

Best Actor is next, folks! Stay tuned…