For two months now, I have had David Fincher’s Mank ranked at the top of the Best Picture contenders and that was with zero buzz about its quality. Why? The biographical drama, which tells the saga of Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (Gary Oldman) and his battles with the bottle and the making of the film, sounded like Oscar bait from its announcement. Fincher is, of course, a heralded filmmaker who’s seen two of his pictures (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network) nab Best Picture nods. Neither won, but many (including this blogger) feel that Network should have done so over The King’s Speech a decade ago.
Ahead of its November 13th limited theatrical bow and December 4th Netflix streaming debut, Mank screened for critics yesterday. While the official embargo has yet to lapse, reaction is out. And it confirms that Fincher’s first pic in six years (since Gone Girl) should score plenty of nominations. As I’ve estimated for several weeks, you would be smart to bet that this will receive the most mentions on nomination morning.
Let’s break them down. Picture and Director appear to be foregone conclusions at this juncture. Gary Oldman is highly likely to get his third Best Actor nomination. That said, after winning just three years ago for Darkest Hour, I don’t foresee a victory. On a side note, the Best Actress winner from 2017 (Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) also looks like a locked in nominee in 2020 for Nomadland. Amanda Seyfried appears poised for her first nomination in Supporting Actress in her role as Marion Davies. Supporting Actor is more murky. While Charles Dance as William Randolph Hearst could sneak in, the race is quite crowded. I wouldn’t count on Dance or costars Tom Pelphrey or Arliss Howard getting in over the considerable competition. Many come from the same streaming service like the cast of The Trial of the Chicago 7 (most notably Mark Rylance and Sacha Baron Cohen) and the late Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods.
The screenplay is solely credited to the director’s deceased father Jack. An Original Screenplay nod is inevitable with the biggest competition so far being Aaron Sorkin for Trial. The tech race possibilities are plentiful: Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score (from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross), Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling. All in all, Mank could conceivably hit about a dozen nominations.
Now let’s get serious. Could it win Best Picture? Some early buzz suggests it might be too geared toward cinephiles and not a mass audience to achieve that. I’m not so sure. I would say the same could be said for recent winners like The Artist and Birdman. Hollywood loves features about its own industry and this might be the granddaddy of them all considering the subject matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mank is still listed in first place when I update my guesstimates next Thursday. I am confident it will never fall below the upper echelon. As for Fincher, he may well be in line for a Director victory and that’s even if Mank doesn’t win the biggest prize. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As October comes to a close, the Aretha Franklin biopic elected to shift its release date to August 2021. That takes it out of contention for this Oscar season. I have had Jennifer Hudson’s performance as the iconic singer in my top five for a couple of weeks. Her departure makes way for Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit in the predicted group in a still crowded lead Actress field.
My shifts continue as, after putting Daniel Kaluuya’s work for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category, I’m putting him back in Best Actor. Hopefully Warner Bros. will clear this up soon as the pic still doesn’t have a firm release date. He enters the top five to the detriment of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.
His departure from Supporting Actor vaults Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 to first position. It’s worth mentioning that Netflix has confirmed that the sprawling cast for Aaron Sorkin’s historical drama will all be campaigned for in that race. I have also swapped out Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami for his costar Leslie Odom, Jr. The changes continue as I’m now becoming more convinced that the late Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in lead and for supporting with Da 5 Bloods.
There’s also a switch in Supporting Actress as I’m taking out Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) and replacing her with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman.
All these changes and more are below with my latest round of Thursday predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 11)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
10. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 9)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary J. Blige, Respect
Audra McDonald, Respect
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 7)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The-Forty-Year-Old-Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
9. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Next Goal Wins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
I Am Greta
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 3)
3. Another Round (PR: 2)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
8. Wife of a Spy (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: 9)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Death on the Nile (PR: 9)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. Rebecca (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 9)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
3. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Emma (PR: 3)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Death on the Nile
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. News of the World (PR: 2)
4. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Over the Moon
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. ” Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
10. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 4)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Rebecca (PR: 7)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Death on the Nile
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Greyhound (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Invisible Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And this equates to the following pictures getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Coming 2 America, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, New Order, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
Garrett Bradley’s documentary Time hit streaming on Amazon Prime this month after winning accolades earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival. Focused on a wife trying to free her husband from a 60-year prison sentence, the pic earned Bradley the directing prize for its genre at the aforementioned fest in January. She is the first African American female to win the prize.
Time stands at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes with 90 reviews up. As the Documentary Feature category is still taking shape, this joins several others as legit possibilities. It has yet to enter my top ten contenders in my weekly Thursday estimates, but expect that to change in the next write-up. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The big news of the week when it comes to Oscar forecasting unquestionably involves Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the forthcoming Netflix feature starring Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman. The studio has confirmed that the late Mr. Boseman will contend in the lead actor race and that upends my predictions in both that category and Supporting Actor. For weeks, I have had Boseman listed in 1st position in the latter. He now moves to #2 in lead behind Anthony Hopkins in The Father.
This significant move shifts my thinking when it comes to other performers. Most notably, I am now guesstimating that Warner Bros. will campaign for Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting field. To be clear, this is not confirmed and is simply speculation. However, that alteration means Kaluuya is now listed in first for Supporting Actor. This activity also means Boseman could potentially be a double nominee as Netflix is likely to mount a campaign for him with Da 5 Bloods in supporting. I have not listed him in the top ten, but it could certainly happen. The same dynamic applies to Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In the coming weeks, we will see if Boseman and Turman materialize in the top ten Supporting Actor players.
While the Actor derbies see those changes (which include Bill Murray now making the cut in Supporting Actor for On the Rocks, out tomorrow on Apple TV), Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress have remained the same.
And with that, let’s see how I have each contest shaping up!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. The Father (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 9)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 8)
9. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – moved to Best Actor
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
4. Boys State (PR: 5)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. I Am Greta (PR: Not Ranked)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Welcome to Chechnya
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 9)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 5)
7. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wife of a Spy (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Ema
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 5)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 8)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Respect (PR: 7)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Over the Moon (PR: 10)
7. Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
10. “Carry Me with You” from Onward (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Rebecca (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
4. Mank (PR: 7)
5. Soul (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Mulan
2 Nominations
Coming 2 America, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Sacha Baron Cohen’s most famous and profitable alter ego returns this Friday via Amazon Prime with the release of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Or more specifically… Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (you can see why I abbreviated). The sequel to the surprise 2006 blockbuster was a surprise in itself as it was shot secretly this year.
If you’re asking whether the pic warrants an Oscar Watch post, I’ll remind you what happened 14 years ago. The original Borat scored a nod at the Academy Awards for Best Adapted Screenplay (losing to The Departed). At the Golden Globes, the film itself made final cut in Best Musical/Comedy (losing to Dreamgirls) and Baron Cohen was victorious in Best Actor in that Musical/Comedy race.
The review embargo ended today and the results are mostly, well, very nice. With a current ranking of 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, the general consensus is that it doesn’t quite the match the original but that it’s quite funny and often shocking and unexpectedly sweet. The latter description probably won’t be shared by Rudy Giuliani as headlines are suggesting he won’t like what ends up onscreen.
So could the sequel generate awards buzz? I have a hard time seeing part 2 contending in Adapted Screenplay. Yet the Globes could be a different story. Depending on how competitive the Musical/Comedy field is for Actor, Baron Cohen could find himself among the possibilities. It’s also worth mentioning that his costar Maria Bakalova (as the title character’s daughter) is getting some raves. Unfortunately for her, the Globes do not separate Drama and Musical/Comedy in the supporting races. I do think there’s an outside chance she gets some Oscar attention, but I wouldn’t count on it.
While the second Borat pic… or movie… or Moviefilm… may not garner Oscar love, its star still could. He is expected to be in the mix for Supporting Actor in The Trial of the Chicago 7 alongside his costars Mark Rylance and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (how many get in remains to be seen). My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Nine Days premiered nine months ago at the Sundance Film Festival. It will be available for all viewers this January after Sony Pictures Classics snatched up the rights. The science fiction drama marks the directorial debut of Edson Oda with a cast featuring Winston Duke, Zazie Beetz, Benedict Wong, Tony Hale, and Bill Skarsgard. Executive produced by Spike Jonze, the pic has been praised by critics for its originality, the lead performance from Duke, and its screenplay which was penned by the director. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% currently.
Sony Pictures will need to a mount a major campaign in order for this to gain any traction with awards voters. I’m skeptical for now, but it’s not impossible that Original Screenplay could be in play if Sony plays their cards right. Bottom line: Nine Days could easily be ignored in the Oscar conversation, but it’s at least worth keeping an eye on. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Rachel Brosnahan has collected an Emmy and two Golden Globes for her small screen work on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. Julia Hart’s 1970s set crime drama I’m Your Woman marks her first starring role in a feature. Prior to its December streaming release from Amazon Studios, the pic screened yesterday at the AFI Fest.
Reviews thus far are of a mixed nature. Some critics are comparing it to the work of John Cassavates while others aren’t near as kind. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. As has been discussed before on the blog, Best Actress appears to be a crowded field in 2020. While I imagine Amazon will push Brosnahan for attention, I have yet to list her in the top ten possibilities for the race. Based on the varied reaction, I don’t expect that to change and I especially don’t envision a scenario where she approaches the final five. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Remaking Hitchcock is always a tricky proposition, but Ben Wheatley is venturing into that territory with the October 21st Netflix release of Rebecca. The 1940 version from the Master of Suspense is the only film in the legend’s filmography to win Best Picture at the Oscars (though it did not land Hitchcock a directing victory). Armie Hammer, Lily James, Kristin Scott Thomas, Sam Riley, and Ann Dowd headline this iteration.
The original source material is actually the 1938 Daphne du Maurier novel and some reviews are saying this 2020 take is actually more faithful than Hitch’s adaptation. Yet it’s getting nowhere close to the raves of what preceded it 80 years ago. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a mixed 54%.
In 1940, the trio of Laurence Olivier, Joan Fontaine, and Judith Anderson were all nominated by the Academy. These would be the roles played now by Hammer, James, and Scott Thomas. While some critics have focused on the work of the latter, I find it doubtful that Scott Thomas could nab her second nomination (her first was 1996’s The English Patient).
Even with the so-so reviews, Rebecca could still get some nods. The Production Design and Costume Design have both been singled out. In my weekly Oscar prediction updates, I had this just on the outside looking in at 6th in the costuming race and I have this making the cut in fifth in Production Design. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The weekly Oscar predictions keep coming as developments from the past 7 days have altered a couple of key races. Most prominent is Best Actress, a potentially crowded field that saw the debut of French Exit with Michelle Pfeiffer. The pic debuted to mixed reviews though critics did praise her work. That said, she moves out of the top 5 and so does Kate Winslet in Ammonite. The two new performers joining the final five: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy and Jennifer Hudson in Respect.
Speaking of Elegy, the Netflix drama debuted its first trailer this week. Reaction was mixed, but it looks to me that Glenn Close especially solidified her status as a front runner in Supporting Actress.
In Best Actor, there’s movement as well since Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal seems to be gaining steam. He moves into the top five with Tom Hanks in News of the World dropping out. And there’s changes in Supporting Actor where we’re still waiting for category placement to be determined. I moved Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) back to Supporting and he knocks out Yahya Abdul-Mateen II from The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Lastly, Pixar’s Soul had its review embargo lifted prior to its Christmas streaming release. Feedback is very solid with some critics proclaiming it’s in the upper echelon on the studio’s work. It could become the fourth animated feature to get a Best Picture nod. For now, I’m saying it’s definitely the heavy favorite to win Animated Feature but it could miss the cut in the biggest race of all.
And with that, the updates are below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. Ammonite (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Supporting Actor)
Matt Damon, Stillwater
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 5)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 10)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Collins, Mank
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Tom Pelphrey, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Respect (PR: 9)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stillwater
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 7)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 6)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wife of a Spy (PR: 7)
7. Atlantis (PR: 9)
8. Ema (PR: Not Ranked)
9. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 8)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Respect (PR: 6)
8. Emma (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 1)
5. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 9)
10. Over the Moon (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Rebecca (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
7. Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Midnight Sky
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. Greyhound (PR: 6)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. Mank (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 10)
10. The Old Guard (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Free Guy
And that means I am estimating the following movies end up with these numbers:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan
2 Nominations
Ammonite, Coming 2 America, Greyhound, Minari, Over the Moon, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, Giving Voice, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Streaming on Amazon Prime since September, the political doc All In: The Fight for Democracy is establishing itself as a real contender in awards season. Directed by Liz Garbus and Lisa Cortes, the pic focuses on voter suppression and features Georgia’s recent gubernatorial race with Stacey Abrams (who shares a producer credit).
Democracy has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and co-director Garbus is no stranger to Academy attention. She’s been nominated twice for 1998’s The Farm: Angola, USA and 2015’s What Happened, Miss Simone? In this heightened electoral climate, this could easily make the final cut in the Documentary Feature race and I currently have it listed in fourth for possibilities. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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