My Case Of posts have reached the second performer for Best Actor at the Oscars and that’s the late Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If you missed my first post focused on Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal, you can find it here:
Despite acclaimed work in 42, Get On Up, Marshall, and Black Panther, his role as Levee Green in the Netflix drama marks Boseman’s first Academy nod. Premiering three months after his passing, critics hailed this as a career best performance. Boseman has swept the key precursors thus far such as the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. If he wins the SAG Award this evening, that’s a clean sweep. One could even argue that his omission in Supporting Actor for Da 5 Bloods is a sign that voters will honor him here.
The Cast Against Chadwick Boseman
You have to go back 11 years since a Best Actor winner’s movie wasn’t nominated for Best Picture (Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart). All four of his fellow nominees are appearing in BP contenders. Of those four, Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) have their ardent supporters.
The Verdict
Best Actor is not a race in which upsets often happen. Anyone other than Boseman taking the gold would constitute one. He is likely to become the first posthumous winner in this category since Peter Finch in Network.
My Case Of posts will continue with Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy…
My Case Of posts for Best Actress reaches its second nominee with Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday. If you missed my first entry on Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, you can find it here:
Awards prognosticators (including this guy) were stunned when Day beat out favorites Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Frances McDormand (Nomadland) at the Golden Globes in the drama category. This upset immediately vaulted Day from will she be nominated? to can she win? While the film has garnered mixed reviews, critics have consistently praised Day’s work as the troubled singer. Just last year the Academy honored another performer (Renee Zellweger) in this race playing a legendary songstress in Judy.
The Case Against Andra Day
As mentioned, the picture itself only managed 53% on Rotten Tomatoes. Yet the biggest case against lies with Day not receiving a SAG nod. Of the previous 26 winners there, not one winning actress missed SAG recognition. Despite the shocking Globes trophy, Mulligan and McDormand remain the frontrunners. Furthermore, Holiday‘s sole nomination came here as it missed other possibilities like Makeup and Hairstyling, Costume Design, and Original Song.
The Verdict
History is not on Day’s side and she ranks third (at best) in this competition.
My Case Of posts will continue with Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom…
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) is the second filmmaker up in my Case Of posts for Best Director at the Oscars. If you missed my first writeup for Lee Isaac Chung work in Minari, you can find it here:
The actress turned multi-hyphenate (who served as a show runner for the acclaimed Killing Eve) drew widespread acclaim for her debut feature. She’s the first female Brit to garner a direction nod. Promising Young Woman is looked at as a potential spoiler to front-running Nomadland in Best Picture. The film could also emerge victorious in Actress (Carey Mulligan) and for Fennell herself in Original Screenplay.
The Case Against Emerald Fennell
Fennell’s inclusion here marks the first time in Academy history that two women are up in the category. Unfortunately for her, the other one is Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and she’s considered the strong favorite to take this award.
The Verdict
Fennell has a terrific opportunity to win an Oscar on April 25th, but it’s for her screenplay and not likely here.
My Case Of posts will continue with Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday…
Sacha Baron Cohen’s work as antiwar activist Abbie Hoffman in Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 is my first Case Of post for the five contenders in Best Supporting Actor:
The Case for Sacha Baron Cohen:
The comedic performer had a high profile and acclaimed 2020. In addition to his dramatic role here, Cohen received many accolades for his buzzy sequel Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Sorkin’s Netflix pic showcased his chops outside of what he’s best known for and Academy voters could take notice.
The Case Against Sacha Baron Cohen:
Trial‘s chances at winning in the major categories has waned in recent months. In this particular race, Daniel Kaluuya’s performance in Judas and the Black Messiah has swept the significant precursors and he’s become a strong frontrunner for the Oscar.
The Verdict
Cohen’s Borat costar Maria Bakalova stands a much better chance at taking Supporting Actress. He had a great year, but it’s unlikely to culminate with a trip to the Oscar stage.
My Case Of posts will continue with Emerald Fennell’s direction for Promising Young Woman…
The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards airs this Easter Sunday evening in an abridged hour long ceremony and, as usual, it could carry significant Oscar implications as to who the frontrunners truly are. That means it’s time for me to put my forecasting hat on and give it my best shot with predictions.
Let’s break it down category by category, shall we? I’ll provide my runner-up selection as well.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Interestingly, the last two films in the big race (Black Panther, Parasite) won without a single nomination in the individual acting races. That had only happened two times previously between 1995-2017 with 1997’s The Full Monty and 2003’s Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. That will not happen for 2020’s selections as all five have at least one performer contending in a separate category.
However, in a rare occurrence, only two of the five ensembles here landed a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. Those are Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Only once in SAG’s history has a movie emerged victorious here without a BP Oscar nod (1996’s The Birdcage). This serves as my annual reminder that SAG picks the best cast and not the best movie.
Truth be told, Da 5 Bloods is the only pic that I believe has little chance at winning here. Yet Ma Rainey and Miami are likely at a disadvantage due to precedent. That leaves us with Minari and Trial. The latter has seen its Oscar momentum stalled in recent weeks, but its sprawling cast could finally get the major precursor victory that it’s been missing. I’m tempted to pick it and it might be the safe choice.
Minari, on the other hand, has gained steamed recently and emerged as a potential upset winner at the Oscars against Nomadland (as has Promising Young Woman, which missed here). I’m choosing to go with the picture with the hotter hand.
Predicted Winner: Minari
Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Analysis: The Golden Globe winner in this category (Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday) isn’t featured here. Therefore we can take a precursor sweep off the table for Best Actress. Adams is the sole nominee without an Oscar nomination so she’s out of contention. Mulligan has the Critics Choice Award and is looked at as the prohibitive favorite from the Academy. She’s the most likely SAG winner. Davis and McDormand could upset, but I’m relatively confident with this pick.
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
Analysis: There’s a five for five match here with the Academy, but I find this SAG lineup to be a bit more complicated due to other factors. While Boseman has taken the Globes and Critics Choice, his nod in Supporting Actor with the actors guild for Da 5 Bloods (if he wins there) opens the door for either Ahmed or Hopkins. That wouldn’t totally shock me, but it’s hard to predict against Boseman and I won’t.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Analysis: Now this is a tough one. The Supporting Actress derby in the precursors has been a true head scratcher. Like in Best Actress, Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) is nowhere to be found (she missed at the Oscars too). Colman and Zengel are the two performers who are highly unlikely to take the prize. This is a genuine three person race between Bakalova, Close, and Youn. Bakalova seems to have momentum with a recent Critics Choice victory. SAG could certainly opt for Close’s baity role (the fact that they nominated her costar Amy Adams lends credence to that). Youn is without a major precursor, but Minari‘s upswing could sweep her in.
Simply put, I’ve very torn here. With Close, the Academy’s narrative for a win is that she’s without an Oscar and is looked at as overdue. SAG, on the other hand, has bestowed trophies for her twice including just two years ago for The Wife. Bakalova has the disadvantage of being in a comedy, but that hindrance may not matter much in this wide open field. I’m left with buying the Minari momentum for Youn. However, I can’t stress enough how feasible a win is for all three actresses.
Predicted Winner: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Runner-Up: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Analysis: This one is far simpler than Supporting Actress as Kaluuya has racked up the Globe and Critics Choice and is the heavy favorite. The only wrinkle, as mentioned above, is if SAG voters decide to honor Boseman here instead of in Best Actor. It probably won’t happen, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Runner-Up: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
And there you have it! I’ll have reaction up on Sunday evening. Until then…
Maria Bakalova’s breakthrough film debut in Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm is my first Case Of post in the seemingly wide open Supporting Actress race at the Oscars:
The Case for Maria Bakalova
The Bulgarian actress became a sensation in 2020 with her hilarious turn as Borat’s daughter in the highly publicized sequel. Her road to the Oscar nomination has been stacked with numerous regional critics prizes as well as the Critics Choice Award. It’s worth noting that the latter award has matched Oscar for the past 11 years. The Academy is known for rarely bestowing their gold on comedic performances, but it’s happened more in this race than others. Examples include Maria Tomei (My Cousin Vinny), Dianne Wiest (Bullets Over Broadway), and Mira Sorvino (Mighty Aphrodite).
The Case Against Maria Bakalova
Her studio decided to campaign for Bakalova in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) at the Golden Globes and she was widely assumed to be the winner. She lost in an upset to Rosamund Pike for I Care a Lot. While I gave some examples of Supporting Actress winners on the funny side, we are talking a quarter century ago.
The Verdict
It cannot be overstated how unpredictable this year’s Supporting Actress competition is. The fact that Bakalova made the cut absolutely means she could be the victor. If the SAG Awards honors her this weekend, look for her to achieve frontrunner status. At the moment, that’s a big if…
My Case Of posts will continue with Bakalova’s movie dad Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7…
While domestic audiences (via the theater or HBO Max) are about to find out who wins the epic showdown titled Godzilla vs. Kong, there is no doubt which creature holds the advantage with Oscar voters. It opens Wednesday and the review embargo is up as of today. The Adam Wingard directed monster mash currently holds an 81% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That’s currently above the three other titles in the MonsterVerse franchise: 2014’s Godzilla (76%), 2017’s Kong: Skull Island (75%), and 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters (42%).
Now you may be thinking that no movie with Godzilla or Kong in the title has been nominated for Best Picture and it won’t start now. You would be 100% correct. The real question is whether this shows up in the 2021 derby for Best Visual Effects. In that space, our massive gorilla holds a distinct advantage. The 1976 remake of King Kong won a special Academy Award for its visuals and the 2005 remake won Visual Effects outright when it became its own category. In the current MonsterVerse, Kong: Skull Island landed a nomination in the race (losing to Blade Runner 2049). As for Godzilla, the last three American produced iterations (1998 and 2014’s Godzilla and its 2019 sequel) garnered a grand total of zero nods for its effects.
There are likely to be a number of spectacles this year that could contend in VE (several of them pushed back from 2020) so competition will be fierce. Yet Kong has shown his prowess in getting Academy members to notice him and perhaps he can bring his nemesis along for the ride. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Riz Ahmed’s performance in Sound of Metal is the first of the five Best Actor nominees up in my Case Of posts!
The Case for Riz Ahmed
Ever since Sound of Metal premiered way back at the Toronto Film Festival in 2019, Ahmed has been drawing raves for his work as a heavy metal drummer who loses his hearing. Metal did better than expected on Oscar nomination morning with 6 mentions. In addition to its lead, it was nominated for Picture, Supporting Actor (Paul Raci), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Sound. In the latter two races, it stands a solid shot at winning. Ahmed’s career has been growing in recent years with an Emmy victory in 2017 for HBO’s The Night Of. He also made history by becoming the first Muslin nominated in Best Actor.
The Case Against Riz Ahmed
All the precursor awards have been bestowed to Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and he stands as the frontrunner. So while Ahmed has achieved nods in all the important precursors, he’s yet to walk away with a significant win. At this juncture, it’s tough to imagine anyone else taking the gold.
The Verdict
Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins (The Father) are correctly thought of as potential spoilers to Boseman’s sweep. Yet it appears unlikely to happen.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first post on a Supporting Actress nominee: Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
**Blogger’s Update (04/04): Viola Davis has won the SAG Award for Best Actress. Her victory there makes an Oscar win certainly more feasible than when I wrote the post below.
Viola Davis’s performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is first up in my Case Of posts for the five hopefuls for Best Actress:
The Case for Viola Davis:
She could make history and already has. By nabbing her fourth nod for the Netflix drama, Davis has become the most nominated African-American woman ever. She is 1 for 3 having won four years ago in Supporting Actress for Fences (her other two mentions were in supporting in 2008 with Doubt and in lead in 2011 for The Help). If she were to emerge victorious here, Davis would be the first African-American female with two victories.
The Case Against Viola Davis:
Ma Rainey underperformed significantly with voters with misses in Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. It could win tech races like Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. The best chance at a major victory, however, lies with costar Chadwick Boseman in Best Actor (who’s performing a sweep thus far with precursors). Davis’s chances have taken a backseat to Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), and perhaps even Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), who picked up a surprise Golden Globe trophy. There has also been some chatter that her work here should have been for Supporting Actress due to fairly limited screen time.
The Verdict
Ms. Davis was near the top of possibilities to take this award a while back. That has undoubtedly changed and a second Oscar here would be nothing short of a major upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal…
Now that my Case Of posts for the 8 nominated Best Picture candidates has concluded, it’s time to move to the 25 contenders in the directing and acting competitions. It begins with Best Director and Lee Isaac Chung for Minari.
The Case for Lee Isaac Chung
Since its debut at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2020, Chung’s drama about South Korean immigrants in 1980s rural America has been a critical and audience favorite. The film performed about as well as expected on nomination day with 6 nods. While Nomadland is certainly the frontrunner to take BP, Minari stands as one of the few titles with upset potential. Chung also landed a DGA spot which is critical for a win with the Academy.
The Case Against Lee Isaac Chung
Even if Nomadland doesn’t win the biggest prize of all, its maker Chloe Zhao seems destined for Best Director. While Minari performed well with Academy, its miss in Editing casts doubt on a BP victory. As for Chung himself, his lack of recognition at the Golden Globes seems significant. You have to go all the way back to Roman Polanski in 2002 for The Pianist to find an Oscar winning filmmaker who wasn’t nominated at the Globes.
The Verdict
In a trend you will see with other director nominees not named Chloe Zhao, it’s hard to envision Chung or the others overcoming her momentum.
My Case Of posts will continue in the field of Best Actress with Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 