**Blogger’s Update (09/27/18): My estimate has risen to $27.6 million to $31.6 million
One of the most dependable comedic actors at the box office teams with one of the hottest newer names when Night School opens next weekend. Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish headline the pic about a group trying to pass their GED exam. Malcolm D. Lee (who just directed Haddish in her breakout Girls Trip) is behind the camera. The supporting cast includes Rob Riggle, Mary Lynn Rajskub, Taran Killam, Romany Malco, and Keith David.
Hart has been a model of consistency in recent years when it comes to high earners. In addition to just coming off the massive blockbuster Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle, he’s had a handful of $30 million plus openers including Think Like a Man, both Ride Along features, Get Hard, and Central Intelligence. The Think Like a Man sequel almost reached $30 million while About Last Night made $25.6 million for its start. The low-end of the spectrum is The Wedding Ringer with $20.6 million. As for Lee and Haddish’s Trip, it took in $31.2 million.
The collaboration of these talents should yield pleasing results and the likely #1 spot over its made competitor – the animated Smallfoot. I’m a little skeptical this reaches $30 million, though it certainly could. A gross in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Night School opening weekend prediction: $31.6 million
President’s Day weekend has arrived at the box office with three new titles debuting over the four-day holiday frame: Matt Damon’s action epic The Great Wall, Ice Cube/Charlie Day comedy Fist Fight, and Gore Verbinski’s horror thriller A Cure for Wellness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None of the trio is likely to dislodge the Caped Crusader and his Lego friends from the top perch in its second weekend. In fact, this particular February weekend often sees holdovers experience smallish declines. The Lego Movie dipped just 9% in the 2014 PD weekend and I expect the same type of minor dip for its spin-off.
With the #1 film safely (I think) determined, the rest of the top five is much more unpredictable. Looking over the past few President’s Day weekends, newbies opening in the mid to high 20s is commonplace. This applied to titles such as Unknown, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, About Last Night, and Robocop. I foresee both Wall and Fight falling in this range for a photo finish for #2.
Then there’s Fifty Shades Darker and John Wick: Chapter 2, both in their sophomore weekends. I don’t see Darker having a 74% drop like its predecessor Fifty Shades of Grey experienced (it had a much bigger opening for one thing). However, I could see it losing half its audience easily as grosses for this franchise are front loaded. Wick may lose less than a third of its debut crowd for a solid hold. And that could create another photo finish between these sequels.
This leaves A Cure for Wellness. Strong reviews may have helped this, but it’s not getting them and I’m diagnosing just a low double digits premiere for a probable sixth place showing.
And with that, my top 6 projections for this busy weekend:
1. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $49.4 million (representing a drop of 6%)
2. The Great Wall
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
3. Fist Fight
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)
5. Fifty Shades Darker
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. A Cure for Wellness
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (February 10-12)
The Lego Batman Movie took the top spot, though not with as much ease as many thought it would. The critically acclaimed animated spin-off grossed $53 million, a decent number but not near the $69M made by The Lego Movie in its inaugural weekend and under my $65.8M projection. That said, as mentioned above, its drop this weekend should be slight.
Fifty Shades Darker opened in second at $46.6 million, in line with my $44.8M estimate. This is far from the $85 million achieved two years back by Fifty Shades of Grey, but it’s actually above some of the predictions from prognosticators in the past week or so.
John Wick: Chapter 2 capitalized on the goodwill left over from the 2014 original with a strong $30.4 million, more than doubling the $14M earned by its predecessor two and a half years back. It easily eclipsed my $20.7M estimate.
Holdovers rounded out the top five with Split dropping to fourth at $9.5 million (I said $8.2M) for a $112M total and Hidden Figures at fifth with $8 million (I said $6.9M) for a $131M overall haul.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Continuing with my series of performers who had a big impact on film this year, part two of six brings us to Kevin Hart.
Not only is he one of the highest grossing stand-up comics around, this year proved he can truly headline at the multiplex as well. The biggest example came in January with the surprise hit buddy cop comedy Ride Along with Ice Cube. The pic amassed a fantastic $134 million gross and was #1 for four weeks. A sequel is already planned for January 2016.
February brought his supporting role in About Last Night which earned a respectable $48 million. In June came his sequel Think Like a Man Too, which topped out at $65 million (less than its predecessor, but still solid considering its $24M budget).
More than anything though, Ride Along made Hart a hot commodity and 2015 should keep the momentum going. January sees the premiere of The Wedding Ringer and in March, he teams up with Will Ferrell in Get Hard.
For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:
This final weekend of February/first weekend of March could provide a real showdown at the box office between Liam Neeson’s action pic Non-Stop and the Biblical pic Son of God. Both could be poised for healthy debut weekends and you can find my detailed predictions posts on each here:
While my estimates put the newbies at spots 1 and 2 – if both underwhelm, it could open the door for a fourth week at the top spot for The Lego Movie. The rest of the top five is likely to be filled with holdover action flicks suffering pretty large drops.
And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Non-Stop
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Son of God
Predicted Gross: $26.7 milion
3. The LEGO Movie
Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. 3 Days to Kill
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
5. Robocop
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (February 21-23)
As for how I did this past weekend, The LEGO Movie did hold #1 for a third frame with $31.3 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. I vastly overestimated how well the rom com About Last Night would hold up in weekend #2. The Kevin Hart flick dropped a steep 70% to $7.5 million, well below my $13.6M prediction. Furthermore, I didn’t give enough credit to Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill. It debuted at second with an OK $12.2 million – well above my modest $7.7M projection. Newcomer Pompeii fared badly with a third place debut at only $10.3 million, below my $13.3M projection. In fourth was Robocop with $9.8 million, in line with $10.4M projection and rounding out the top five was The Monuments Men with $7.9M, under my $10.3M estimate.
As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday!
The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:
As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:
1. The LEGO Movie
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)
2. About Last Night
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
3. Pompeii
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
4. Robocop
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. The Monuments Men
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. 3 Days to Kill
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (February 14-17)
The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.
That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.
The President’s Day cavalcade of 80s remakes continues on with About Last Night, which updates the 1986 romance that starred Rob Lowe, Demi Moore, Jim Belushi, and Elizabeth Perkins. Perfectly positioned with a Valentine’s Day release – it will face competition from other romantic themed pictures Winter’s Tale and Endless Love, which I’ll get to later today.
About Last Night, however, has a pretty big ace up its sleeve in the form of Kevin Hart who couldn’t be more popular right now with the massive success of last month’s Ride Along. Costars include Michael Ealy, Regina Hall, and Joy Bryant. The combination of Hart and its well-timed release leads me to believe this could open very big, perhaps even surpassing Robocop – another high-profile 80s reboot. For comparisons sake, it could open similar to what The Best Man Holiday did in November with $30 million.
The four day holiday gross may push About Last Night beyond that number by a bit. This film should especially do well with African-American audiences, who made up 87% of Holiday‘s opening weekend crowd. Bottom line: Kevin Hart’s run of box office fortune in 2014 should continue here.
About Last Night opening weekend prediction: $36.8 million (Friday to Monday gross)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 