Dicks: The Musical was unveiled at midnight screenings during the Toronto Film Festival last month. The outrageous comedy is based on an off-Broadway play with a more risqué title from Josh Sharp and Aaron Jackson. They headline the cast along with Nathan Lane, Megan Mullally, Bowen Yang, and Megan Thee Stallion. Larry Charles, collaborator with Sacha Baron Cohen on Borat and Brüno, directs.
Opening in wider release tomorrow after a limited run on the coasts, it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 74 reviews. This probably won’t even get in the mix for Musical/Comedy races at the Golden Globes. The one Academy prospect worth mentioning are the tunes. There are original tracks separate from the source material and distributor A24 is expected to tout them for contention. One being singled out by critics is “Out Alpha the Alpha” by Ms. Thee Stallion.
Funny R-rated songs rarely make the cut with awards voters. 1999’s “Blame Canada” from South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut is an outlier. I wouldn’t count on the raunchy ditties making enough ballots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Pizza loving reptilian crimefighters are back and a giant shark wreaks havoc on humans and animals (again) as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench open wide this week. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on the newcomers here:
Turtles is getting the best reviews of any picture in the 30 year plus franchise as the animated reboot opens on Wednesday. With positive buzz and a healthy nostalgia factor, mid to high 30s over the traditional weekend and a five-day haul topping $50 million appears to be an achievable level of green.
The competition from Donatello, Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo could hurt Meg 2 a tad. While the 2018 original premiered with $45 million, a mid 20s gross might be all that the sequel bites off.
This means the newbies may lag behind Barbie (for Turtles) and Oppenheimer (for Trench). Greta Gerwig’s take on the iconic doll should easily spend a third weekend atop the charts after a magnificent sophomore hold (more on that below). Oppenheimer could approach nearly $30 million in its third go-round.
Following a lackluster start, Disney’s Haunted Mansion should see a dip of at least 50% for fifth place.
Here’s how I see the pieces falling into place:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $60.4 million
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $36.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $51.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $29.3 million
4. Meg 2: The Trench
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
5. Haunted Mansion
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
Box Office Results (July 28-30)
As mentioned, Barbie was nothing to toy with in its second outing as the phenomenon made off with $93 million (ahead of my $82.6 million prediction). That’s the seventh largest sophomore weekend in box office history between The Avengers and The Super Mario Bros. Movie. My estimate above, incidentally, gives it the seventh best third frame.
Barbie only fell 43% and the same was true for Oppenheimer in second. Christopher Nolan’s Oscar contender took in $46.7 million, reaching a bit higher than my $43.8 million take. The three hour biopic has amassed $174 million thus far.
The Mouse House had another disappointment with Haunted Mansion. With mediocre reviews and scant chatter, the family fright flick was third with $24 million compared to my slightly better $25.4 million projection. Look for it to fade quickly.
Sound of Freedom was fourth with $12.8 million (I said $14.7 million) as the season’s sleeper hit is up to $149 million.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One rounded out the top five with $10.6 million. My call? $10.6 million! In three weeks, the Tom Cruise sequel has underwhelmed with $139 million.
Finally, A24’s acclaimed low-budget horror pic Talk to Me was a robust sixth with $10.4 million. That’s well beyond my meager guesstimate of $3.6 million. Lesson learned – bet the over on this genre.
Blogger’s Update (07/26): A rather low reported 1900 screen count for Talk to Me has lowered my estimate from $4.8 million to $3.6 million. That likely leaves it outside of the top six.
After a historic box office weekend, July closes out with a pair of new releases in Disney’s Haunted Mansion and A24’s critically acclaimed Talk to Me. Neither are likely to dislodge the potent 1-2 punch of Barbenheimer. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies are here:
I don’t really see audiences clamoring for a fresh spin on Haunted Mansion (nearly 20 years after the one with Eddie Murphy) and buzz seems light. Family crowds should get it to a ho-hum mid 20s gross and that would place it in third.
Even if it made $30-35 million, that wouldn’t mean top two. Those spots are reserved for Barbie and Oppenheimer after their amazing starts (more on that below). The question is how far each dips in weekend #2.
For Barbie, the event status that it took on makes it somewhat naturally front loaded. A worst case decline might be around 55-60%. Considering the A Cinemascore grade and chance for repeat business, I’ll say 45-50% is more feasible and that means low to possibly mid 80s.
Oppenheimer also nabbed an A Cinemascore grade and perhaps some adult viewers are content for the IMAX screenings to be a bit less packed. I’ll say it doesn’t quite fall 50% with a take of over $40 million.
Sound of Freedom should continue its meager percentage decreases while Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One hopes to right the ship after a turbulent two weeks. They should place fourth and fifth, respectively.
While Talk to Me is generating impressive reviews, this could be the type of A24 elevated horror experience that doesn’t bring genre fans out in droves. A lot of them just got their fright fix with Insidious: The Red Door as well.
And with that, here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $82.6 million
2. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $43.8 million
3. Haunted Mansion
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
4. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
Box Office Results (July 21-23)
Racking up the fourth highest financial frame in history, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer gave us the best weekend in over four years.
Barbie captured the zeitgeist and an especially sizable female audience to the tune of $162 million, right on pace with my $160.8 million prediction. That’s the best three-day opening of 2023 and my hunch is that it will remain so. It’s also the #1 premiere for a female directed feature and 20th overall.
Oppenheimer gave Mr. Nolan his personal best third start (after The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight). Blasting beyond my $65.3 million estimate, the three-hour Oscar contender amassed $82.4 million for an astonishing runner-up showing. Those packed IMAX screenings didn’t hurt.
Sound of Freedom was third as it continued its low declines with $19.8 million, just below my $21 million projection. The brilliantly marketed action thriller sits at $124 million.
And this is where the good news stops. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, after a less than expected opening, had a free fall from 1st to 4th. The Barbenheimer phenomenon helped it plummet 65% to $19.3 million compared to my $25.5 million call. The ten-day tally is $118 million.
Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door were fifth and sixth, respectively. Each made $6.6 million. Indy‘s four-week earnings are at $158 million while Insidious‘s three-week bounty is $71 million.
I incorrectly had Elemental in fifth, but it was seventh with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for $137 million overall.
Blogger’s Update (07/26): A reported screen count of 1900 has warranted lowering my prediction from $4.8 million to $3.6 million
After debuting at Sundance back in January, Australian horror flick Talk to Me reaches stateside theaters on July 28th. Marking the directorial of debut for brothers Danny and Michael Philippou, Sophie Wilde stars with a supporting cast including Alexandra Jensen, Joe Bird, Otis Dhanji, Miranda Otto, and Zoe Terakes.
Encouraging chatter for Talk emerged from Utah early this year. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96%. Following its premiere, a bidding war occurred with A24 securing distribution rights for the low-budget (a reported $4.5 million price tag) fright fest.
That said, this runs the risk of being the kind of elevated horror experience that critics dig more than audiences. I have yet to see a theater count so my projection could change once I do. For now, I think it may open around the amount of its cost.
Talk to Me opening weekend prediction: $3.6 million
Steve McQueen’s Occupied City, based on buzz out of Cannes, may not be the best documentary we’ll see in 2023. It certainly sounds like it’s the most documentary. Clocking in at about four and a half hours, it tells dual stories of Amsterdam from its Nazi occupation in WWII and its last few years during the pandemic.
A decade ago, the filmmaker’s 12 Years a Slave was crowned Best Picture (while McQueen himself lost the directorial race to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity). His lone theatrical follow-up is 2018’s Widows. McQueen’s anthology series Small Axe from 2020 was critically heralded on the small screen and the historical drama Blitz with Saorise Ronan is on the way.
The plaudits for his body of work hasn’t fully extended to City. The Rotten Tomatoes meter early on is 67%. A common complaint is its length and stodginess. I don’t see this occupying one of the five spots in Documentary Feature a few months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a sizzling limited release last weekend, Ari Aster’s Beau Is Afraid expands to just under 1000 screens this Friday. A mix of many genres from the director known for horror pics Hereditary and Midsommar, Joaquin Phoenix stars as a paranoid man on odyssey while dealing with severe mommy issues. Costars include Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Rogers, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.
Some critics have been quite kind and it sits at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. Others have called the three-hour opus a slog and predicted that general audiences are likely to have strong negative feelings. Beau scored $320,000 on just four screens days ago for a per theater average of $80k. It’s not surprising that it performed splendidly in NY/LA.
Beau faces more challenging prospects as it plays between the coasts. While it will probably have the third best screen average behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Evil Dead Rise (though the average could top that one), a gross between $4-5 million is likely.
Beau Is Afraid expanded opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
A24 just hit the Oscar jackpot with Everything Everywhere All at Once and they have another multi-genre family opus opening in limited release this Friday. Beau Is Afraid is the third feature from writer/director Ari Aster behind acclaimed scary flicks Hereditary and Midsommar. With a $35 million budget, this is the biggest budget yet for the distributor. The three hour episodic mix of mommy issues, satire, and horror is headlined by Joaquin Phoenix with a supporting cast including stage legend Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Ryan, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.
The review embargo has just lifted and the reactions are all over the place. A 75% Rotten Tomatoes score is the number at this early stage. There are some recurring thoughts among the write-ups. One is that Aster takes gigantic swings. Some pay off. Some don’t. Another is that he’s perhaps given too much freedom this time and that the runtime is exceedingly long. There are comparisons to Charlie Kaufman and numerous mentions of Freud. You also get the impression that plenty of moviegoers will strongly dislike it. The word unhinged pops up in more than one synopsis.
It could be telling that Beau skipped the film festival circuit and opted for this spring release. A24 might suspect they don’t have an awards player (though you could correctly point out that Everything Everywhere came out around the same time). That said, they might opt to throw their serious campaigning behind the upcoming Past Lives (which drew raves at Sundance). While Phoenix is drawing praise for his performance, it could be a tall order for him to nab a Best Actor nod. Perhaps this fall’s Napoleon gives him a better shot. Some critics have singled out LuPone, but apparently her actual screen time is limited.
Beau will undoubtedly have its ardent supporters and fierce detractors. That could be a mix that doesn’t result in significant Oscar buzz. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Past Lives is the debut feature film from Celine Song and it premiered at Sundance over the weekend to a rapturous reception. The romantic drama stars Greta Lee and Teo Yoo with critics praising their work in the A24 effort.
Some reviews are already claiming it will end up as one of 2023’s finest and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. Its studio may choose to kick off a Minari or Everything Everywhere All at Once style campaign (both were and/or are nominated for Best Picture).
Sundance brought to light the possibility of Past Lives being a legit awards player even this early in the process. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Director Nicole Holofcener reunites with her Enough Said star Julia Louis-Dreyfus for You Hurt My Feelings, which has screened at Sundance. The comedy is drawing satisfactory notices in Utah with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Look for distributor A24 to mount an awards campaign as the year rolls along.
Enough Said was able to nab Louis-Dreyfus a Golden Globe Best Actress nod in Musical/Comedy and that could certainly occur again. She stands the best chance among costars that include Tobias Menzies, David Cross, Amber Tamblyn, Michaela Watkins, Arian Moayed, and Owen Teague.
Holofcener is already an Academy nominee for cowriting the adapted screenplay for 2018’s Can You Ever Forgive Me? I wouldn’t count on a second writing mention. While critics are being kind, this has the feel of a Globe Predictions post with its lead’s chances. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
Theaters owners are counting on Avatar: The Way of Water to save them from drowning in red ink following the second lowest box office frame of 2022. James Cameron’s long in the making sequel is the only new release out and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With Oscar buzz (like the 2009 original) and solid reviews, Water could potentially surface with the largest premiere of the year. To do so, it would need to surpass the $187 million that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness achieved in May. Considering the runtime of over three hours, it may fall a bit short of that. My projection has it behind Multiverse and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for the third heftiest ’22 haul and the 18th highest debut of all time.
Speaking of Wakanda, it will finally fall to second after five weeks atop the charts. Fellow holdovers Violent Night, Strange World, and The Menu should all slide a spot as well. All of these returnees experienced small declines this weekend, but may dip a tad more due to Avatar overtaking multiplexes.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $173.1 million
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
3. Violent Night
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Strange World
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
5. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $1.9 million
Box Office Results (December 9-11)
As mentioned, it was a sluggish time in theaters as Avatar is on deck to make a splash. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it a handful of weekends in first place with $11.2 million. That’s on pace with my $10.6 million prediction as the MCU sequel is up to $409 million.
Violent Night remained in second with a sturdy 35% drop at $8.7 million, in line with my $8.5 million take. The Yuletide shoot-em-up has grossed $26 million in ten days.
Disney’s flop Strange World was third with $3.7 million compared to my $3.1 million estimate. Overall tally is just $30 million.
The Menu was fourth with $2.7 million (I said $2.8 million) for $29 million total.
Devotion rounded out the top five with $2 million. I went with $1.7 million and the aviation drama is at $17 million.
Finally, there was a bit of good news in a bad weekend. A24’s The Whale, in which Brendan Fraser is expected to vie for the Best Actor Oscar, achieved 2022’s best per screen performance. In only six venues, it earned approximately $360k. That $60k average tops Everything Everywhere All at Once, which previously had the year’s strongest average at $50k. It expands across wider on December 21st.
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