Tag: A24

Oscar Watch: Lady Bird

The Telluride Film Festival over the weekend has showcased yet another Best Actress hopeful. This time it’s Lady Bird with Saoirse Ronan and the buzz is loud enough that she looks like a real contender for her third nomination.

The coming-of-age drama marks the directorial debut of actress Greta Gerwig. Reviews from Telluride suggest it’s a winner. If Ronan can emerge from an increasingly crowded field in Best Actress, it would come a decade after her first nod for Supporting Actress in Atonement and two years following her lead nomination in Brooklyn. Critics were also quick to praise the supporting work of veteran performer Laurie Metcalf, who could find herself in the Supporting Actress derby. Gerwig also wrote the screenplay and may have a better shot at Original Screenplay recognition over her direction.

If Lady Bird‘s distributor A24 mounts a major campaign, it could even be a long shot player for a Picture nom. One thing seems certain, though. Ronan is once again in the mix for three nominations at just the age of 23.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Good Time Box Office Prediction

A long way from Twilight, Robert Pattinson is receiving critical acclaim for his latest pic and it is heist drama Good Time, which expands nationwide this weekend. The A24 release comes from directors Ben and Josh Sadfie with a supporting cast featuring Barkhad Abdi and Jennifer Jason Leigh.

The film premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May to solid notices and it stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, with a performance from Mr. Pattinson that’s drawn raves. Over the previous weekend, it drew a commendable $165,000 on just 20 screens.

Doing an opening weekend estimate for Good Time is a little tricky since I don’t have a theater count at press time (in other words, this prediction could change). I’m going to assume it’s on maybe 600-700 screens. For now, I’ll say it manages to reach a bit between $1-$2M out of the gate.

Good Time opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million

For my Leap! prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/leap-box-office-prediction/

For my All Saints prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/all-saints-box-office-prediction/

For my Birth of the Dragon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/17/birth-of-the-dragon-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Florida Project

The first trailer was released today for The Florida Project, a coming of age drama that debuted at Cannes earlier this summer. It is director Sean Baker’s follow-up to his critically acclaimed 2015 feature Tangerine and early word for this Project is quite glowing as well. The pic was snatched up by A24 for distribution rights and it opens in limited release on October 6th.

Rotten Tomatoes currently has Florida at 100% and it stands a good chance at some 2017 Oscar recognition. A24 has proven itself to be a player over the last couple of cycles in the awards derby by distributing such titles as Ex Machina, Room, The Lobster, 20th Century Women, and most notably – last year’s Best Picture winner Moonlight. 

Early buzz here suggests a nomination may well be in store for Willem Dafoe. If so, it would mark his third nomination after 1986’s Platoon and 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire. Reviews suggest this is one of his finest performances. It’s not totally clear if he’ll be campaigned for in Lead Actor or Supporting, but the smart money is on the latter. I would also say it’s worth keeping an eye on the Original Screenplay category where Baker and co-writer Chris Bergoch could find themselves in the mix.

As for Best Picture, A24 would need one heck of a push to make that happen, but they’ve proven themselves before. For that reason, this Project is one to keep an eye on when it comes to nominations.