Oscar Predictions: Eric Larue

As the mom of a school shooter preparing to meet with family members of the departed, Judy Greer stars in Michael Shannon’s directorial debut Eric Larue. Brett Neveu adapts his own play with a supporting cast including Paul Sparks, Alison Pill, Tracy Letts, and Alexander Skarsgård. It premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival and is seeking domestic distribution for later this year.

Reviews for the picture itself are a mixed bag with 70% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the critical reaction compares it to 2021’s similarly themed Mass. That film received more acclaim and came up empty at the Oscars.

The story should be the same for Larue with one possible exception. Greer is generating career best notices. She’s one of those performers that you’ll recognize from many projects on the big and small screen. The lengthy list includes Adaptation, 13 Going on 30, The Village, 27 Dresses, The Descendants, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Jurassic World, Ant-Man, Halloween and sequel Halloween Kills.

Normally I’d say that Larue might be too minor a project for Greer to contend for Best Actress attention. However, Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nom a few months back for To Leslie at least has me wondering. Greer is well-respected with two decades of character actor work. I wouldn’t count on her getting in, but the right campaign could change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Little Box Office Prediction

Borrowing its plot themes from comedies such as Big and 13 Going on 30, the Will Packer produced pic Little debuts next weekend. Regina Hall stars as an overworked tech mogul who’s transformed into a teen version of herself. That 13-year-old self is played by Marsai Martin (of TV’s “Black-ish”) and the young actress holds an executive producer credit here (making her the youngest person ever to do so). Tina Gordon directs and Issa Rae, Justin Hartley, and Rachel Dratch costar.

Mr. Packer’s previous studio efforts like Girls Trip have turned into profitable ventures. Little hopes to bring in a sizable African-American audience and the chances of this over performing are real.

A gross in the mid to high teens is certainly feasible, but I’ll project low teens is where this ends up.

Little opening weekend prediction: $14 million

For my Hellboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/03/hellboy-box-office-prediction/

For my Missing Link prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/05/missing-link-box-office-prediction/

For my After prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/07/after-box-office-prediction/