Box Office Predictions: December 25-30

I’m just going to get this out of the way first: predicting the Christmas holiday box office is EXTREMELY difficult. It’s been made even tougher this year due to the fact that Christmas falls on Tuesday, which means mid-week (Tuesday-Thursday) grosses will be much, much higher than normal.

There are three high profile releases opening tomorrow: the eagerly awaited Les Miserables, the eagerly awaited Quentin Tarantino film Django Unchained, and the Billy Crystal/Bette Midler comedy Parental Guidance.

Added to that: the third weekend of The Hobbit and the second weekends of 4 pictures, including Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher and the Judd Apatow comedy This Is 40.

So how does it all shake out? Boy, it’s tough to say. My sense is that The Hobbit will have a much smaller decline this week and weekend that its second weekend, where it fell 57%. Traditionally, the Christmas holiday means recent films don’t decline at the level they normally would (even though I was far too generous with nearly all films this past weekend). These smaller declines could certainly benefit Reacher and This Is 40 as well, even though audiences only gave 40 a “B-” CinemaScore grade, which doesn’t bode well (Reacher got a solid “A-“).

It is certainly possible that both Les Miserables and Django will fight it out with Hobbit for the top spot. Any combination of those three films in the 1-2-3 spots wouldn’t shock me. Word is that Miserables and Django are tracking well and both have received positive reviews. I suspect Parental Guidance will only do OK.

With that, I will bravely predict next weekend’s box office grosses for the Top 6 and take a stab at the six day grosses for all. Again, a caveat: this is TOUGH:

1. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million (6 day gross: $47.1M)

2. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million (6 day gross: $44.6M)

3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $26.5 million (6 day gross: $43.8M)

*representing a drop of 28%

4. Jack Reacher

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (6 day gross: $20.8M)

*representing a drop of 26%

5. Parental Guidance

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (6 day gross: $17.7M)

6. This Is 40

Predicted Gross: $8 million (6 day gross: $14.6 million)

*representing a drop of 34%

So, there you have it: my Xmas predictions. We’ll see what happens and on Sunday, I’ll have the complete update (I’ll post how it’s looking on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week).

And a final note: I want to sincerely thank all of you who take the time to read this blog. I love writing it and I hope you enjoy reading it. I’ll be blogging again starting Wednesday for sure, but until then – have a Merry Christmas and if you venture out to see a Hobbit, Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway, Jamie Foxx and Leo DiCaprio, or Tom Cruise – safe travels!

Box Office Results: December 21-23

Well, it is the Christmas season and I was clearly being way too generous with my weekend’s box office predictions. All titles that I predicted came in lower than my estimations and many were considerably lower.

As expected, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey retained the #1 spot, but dropped off quite a bit more than my prediction in its second weekend. The Tolkien tale took in $36.7 million, dropping 56%. I predicted $49.1 million. Oops.

As predicted, Tom Cruise’s action thriller Jack Reacher took the runner-up spot, earning $15.6 million, lower than my $17.6 million projection.

As predicted, the Judd Apatow comedy This Is 40 took third, grossing $12 million, lower than my $15.7 million projection.

Where I really went wrong: grossly overestimating the openings of Disney’s 3D Monsters Inc. re-release and the Seth Rogen/Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip. I predicted they would fill the four and five slots, but the two pictures were sixth and seventh. The Guilt Trip grossed $5.3 million over the weekend and $7.4M since its Wednesday opening (way below my $8.9M/$11.6M projection). Even worse, I predicted $12.3M for Monsters with a five-day gross of $16.2M. Not even close – the re-release sputtered with a $5 million weekend opening and $6.5M over the five-day.

This left holdovers Rise of the Guardians to be fourth ($5.9M) and Lincoln at fifth ($5.6M).

It will be fascinating to see how these pictures hold up this week and into the weekend. Christmas Day, in particular, is usually a huge box office day and many of these titles could hold up quite well. Then there’s the fact that Les Miserables, Django Unchained, and Parental Guidance join the fray on Tuesday. I’ll be trying to make sense of it all for my next predictions post for the Christmas week and next weekend, which I’ll hopefully have up by tomorrow evening, so you can leave my predictions with Santa along with the milk and cookies.

Box Office Predictions: December 21-23

We’re doing the box office predictions a day earlier than normal in Todd Thatcher blog land, because two of the four new films opening during this frame open tomorrow.

Both the Seth Rogen-Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip and Disney’s 3D re-release of Monsters Inc. open tomorrow to try and get a jump on the pre-Holiday box office frame.

On Friday, the Judd Apatow “sort of” Knocked Up sequel This Is 40 and the Tom Cruise action thriller Jack Reacher join the fray. Even with four new high-profile titles joining the fray, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is widely expected to retain its place at #1 for its second weekend. The real question is: how far will it drop? The film made over $84 million this past weekend and normally, a 50% drop would not be out of the ordinary. However, due to the holiday time frame, it may not quite drop that far.

It’s indeed that holiday time frame that makes it difficult to predict the openings of the new movies. The four opening this weekend will very likely occupy slots 2-5. The order will be interesting to see. High-profile December openings usually achieve a “slow burn”, where its actual opening doesn’t seem too big, but it’ll continue to experience smaller than normal dropoffs in following weekends. That is likely to be the case again this year and I would expect none of the new entries to gross over $20 million over the weekend.

Tom Cruise will have a real test of his box office strength with Reacher. His star has waned a bit in the last few years. For instance, 2010’s Knight and Day was a disappointment financially and this summer’s Rock of Ages didn’t perform well. He did have a massive hit a year ago with the fourth Mission: Impossible. His new film doesn’t have the built-in audience as his Ethan Hunt franchise. Reviews have been solid, but the trailers for Reacher don’t seem to set it apart too much from the crowd, in my opinion.

This is 40 is director Judd Apatow’s first film in three and a half years and reunites Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann, reprising their roles from 2007’s smash Knocked Up. Apatow’s last film, 2009’s Funny People, was a box office dud. I expect This is 40 to be neither a smash or a dud and fall somewhere in the middle. Its reviews have also been pretty positive.

I expect Disney’s 3D version of 2001’s Monsters Inc. to perform with roughly the same opening that their 3D Finding Nemo did in September, when it grossed $16 million.

Finally, The Guilt Trip doesn’t look very good, frankly, and its reviews have mostly reflected that. I don’t think it will perform as well as This Is 40, unless Rogen and Streisand’s fans really get out there. Not so sure.

And with all that said, here is this weekend’s box office predictions:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $49.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

2. Jack Reacher

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. This Is 40

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

4. Monsters Inc.

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (predicting $16.2 for 4 day gross)

5. The Guilt Trip

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (predicting $11.6 for 4 day gross)

I’ll be back Sunday with results and even more predictions on either Monday or Tuesday, because even more movies open on Christmas, including Les Miserables, Django Unchained, and Parental Guidance. Stay tuned. Tis the season for LOTS of movies coming out at the same time!

Most Comedy Sequels Really Suck

In case there is any ambiguity about the premise of this particular blog post, it’s that most sequels to comedies really suck. Seriously. Quickly think of a comedy sequel that’s better than the original… not easy. There are examples and we’ll get to those later, but the vast majority of the time, it doesn’t work.

Why? This explanation might encompass the answer to most: most comedies aren’t made with a sequel or sequels in mind. While countless action films, superhero sagas, and sci-fi pics are made with “franchise” on the brain, this is rarely the case for comedies. Most comedy sequels come as an afterthought, after the original has made boatloads of money (unexpectedly in many cases).

Some of the very worst offenders involve comedy sequels where certain principal cast members didn’t even bother to come back. I give you Teen Wolf Too, released two years after the original where a young Jason Bateman took over the role for Michael J. Fox (who probably knew much better). The original made $33 million in 1985… the sequel made $7 million. And it’s awful.

There is not one, not two, but THREE examples of sequels to Jim Carrey comedies in which Mr. Carrey wisely did not return. There’s Son of the Mask, which tried and failed to keep that franchise going. Carrey’s Mask earned $119 million. The other one: $17 million.

New Line also tried to keep the saga of Lloyd and Harry going in Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd by casting the characters in their youth. Bad idea. Carrey’s movie: $127 million. The other one: $26 million.

And then there’s Evan Almighty, the sequel to Bruce Almighty, where Steve Carell took over. The film was expected to be a hit and had a huge budget, but it underperformed. Carrey’s movie: $242 million. The other one: $100 million. Not terrible, but well below expectations.

Of course, Carrey isn’t totally innocent. The sequel to 1994’s Ace Ventura: Pet Detective that came a year later, Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls, is pretty lame. Though it did well at the box office.

One of the most notoriously bad comedy sequels: Caddyshack II. Coming eight years after the classic original, only Chevy Chase bothered to make a return appearance. Bill Murray and Rodney Dangerfield knew better. In 1980, Caddyshack made $39 million. The sequel only managed $11 million. And I’m going to go ahead and assume you don’t go around often quoting lines from the sequel.

Chevy Chase would further offend with Fletch Lives, a vastly subpar sequel to the 1985 film. Original: $50 million. Sequel: $35 million. It tries hard to replicate the original’s charm. It doesn’t.

While we’re talking 80s comedy sequels, 1984’s Police Academy wasn’t that great in the first place, but it was a hit and spawned a LOT of sequels that pretty much suck equally. Even Steve Guttenberg knew to leave the franchise after a couple of them. That didn’t stop him, however, from making another bad comedy sequel: Three Men and a Little Lady, after the surprise hit Three Men and a Baby. The original: $167 million. The sequel: $71 million.

Then there’s the ill-conceived Blues Brothers 2000, which came two decades after the original and co-star John Belushi’s death. John Goodman took over the Belushi role, but audiences had little desire to see that. The original: $57 million. The sequel: $14 million.

Two forgettable sequels were made to the 1986 surprise hit Crocodile Dundee. A bad sequel to 1984’s Revenge of the Nerds was released in 1987.

And there’s my favorite comedy of all time: 1980’s Airplane! It’s sequel came and went two years later. I’ve seen Airplane! countless times. I’ve seen the second installment exactly once and it pales in comparison. Original: $83 million. Sequel: $27 million.

Probably the most anticipated sequel to an 80s comedy is 1989’s Ghostbusters 2, following up the 1984 smash hit. The first one is a total classic. The sequel is just OK. Original: $229 million. Sequel: $112 million.

Moving on to the 1990s, we have plenty of examples too. How about City Slickers II: The Legend of Curly’s Gold, 1994’s follow-up to the 1991 hit. That unmemorable experience actually used the grand old soap opera tactic of bringing Jack Palance’s character back because… he had a twin brother no one knew about! Lame. So is the movie. Original: $124 million. Sequel: $43 million.

Two 1993 sequels to 1992 comedies tried and failed to capitalize on the original’s successes: Wayne’s World 2 and Sister Act 2: Back in the Habbit. 1995’s Father of the Bride Part II actually made good money, but it fails to match the first. Also, 1991’s Naked Gun 2 1/2: The Smell of Fear and 1994’s Naked Gun 33 1/3: The Final Insult performed decently, but couldn’t come close to the quality of the 1988 original.

Our previous decade brought us more comedy sequel disappointment: anyone think Legally Blonde 2 was better than the first? It did, however, gross only slightly less than the first ($96 million-$90 million). Or how about 2002’s mediocre Men in Black II, which was no match for the 1997 original (for that matter, MIB3 was underwhelming too). Or Steve Martin’s second Pink Panther flick… even though the first was nothing great either. Or the second Nutty Professor installment. Or the return of Martin Lawrence’s Big Momma… twice. Or 2002’s Analyze That, the sequel to Analyze This. That one made $32 million or $74 million less than the first. Also, 2001’s American Pie 2 and 2003’s American Wedding didn’t live up to the original, though both had their moments, I’ll admit.

As mentioned earlier, we do see exceptions from time to time. 1964’s A Shot in the Dark is actually the second Peter Sellers-Pink Panther movie and it’s widely considered the best. Meet the Fockers became the highest grossing comedy of all time upon its release, though I maintain it’s not near as good as Meet the Parents. And Little Fockers… ugh. By the same token, The Hangover sequel did enormous box office, though I basically thought it was a carbon copy of the original. The three sequels to Scary Movie all had some funny stuff in them too. The first Austin Powers is the funniest, though I think both sequels were solid.

Other comedy sequels that many believe are better or at least almost as good as the original: 1993’s Hot Shots: Part Deux. 1991’s Bill&Ted’s Bogus Journey, and 2006’s Clerks II. Also, many consider 1993’s Addams Family Values to be an improvement on the 1991 original.

Finally, there’s the the Good, the Bad, and the Just OK sequels that represent the Vacation movies. The 1983 original is one of the funniest films of all time. There were three sequels. The Good is obviously 1989’s Christmas Vacation. Very good, as a matter of fact.

The Bad is 1997’s embarrassing Vegas Vacation.

The Just OK is the first sequel, 1985’s European Vacation.

This all leads to us to wonder what category the upcoming sequels to Anchorman, Ted, and the third Hangover will fall under. And we’re going to get a proper Dumb and Dumber sequel, with Carrey and Jeff Daniels back. And this weekend, we’ll have the “sort of” sequel to Knocked Up – This is 40.

We can all hope and, in particular, I can’t wait to see Ron Burgundy, Brick, Champ, and Brian back in action. You may want to temper your expectations though, because generally the history of comedy sequels has been… well, sucky.

The State of the Oscar Race

Since the last time I blogged Oscar predictions, a number of very significant events have taken place: the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations are out. Most critics groups have bestowed their awards. Many prominent individual critics have started releasing their “Best Of” lists of the year.

The Oscar race has taken shape. We won’t know until next month what will be nominated, but it certainly felt like time to update my predictions for what will be nominated. Here goes in the six major categories. What I will do in this post is break down my predictions by “Locks”, “Strong Possibility”, “Possible”, and “Dark Horse” and indicate my predicted nominees in bold. I will give a number for each to indicate how strongly I feel its nomination is (1 being the highest and so forth). This does not necessarily indicate what I think will win (I could rank something #1 on nomination chances and not believe it ultimately will take home the golden guy). I will likely make just one more round of nomination predictions (maybe two) and then we will see a blog post in the future after nominations are out on what I think will win. Here we go:

Best Picture

Locks

1. Lincoln

2. Argo

3. Zero Dark Thirty

4. Les Miserables

Strong Possibility

5. Silver Linings Playbook

6. Life of Pi

7. Amour

Possible

8. The Master

9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

10. Django Unchained

11. Moonrise Kingdom

12. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Dark Horse

13. Flight

14. The Impossible

15. Skyfall

Breakdown: At this point, I believe the chances of eight to ten nominees is much more likely than not. I have The Master and Beasts of the Southern Wild hanging by a thread. The French film Amour seems to have just enough traction to be in, though that too is tentative. The real threat to get in is Django Unchained, which is being called one of Tarantino’s best. It was only three years ago that Inglourious Basterds was nominated. I’m still not quite ready to predict it gets a nomination, but I’m awfully close. Moonrise Kingdom and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel have real shots too. For the moment, the nine in bold make the cut.

Best Director

Locks

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

3. Ben Affleck, Argo

Strong Possibilities

4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

5. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

6. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

7. Michael Haneke, Amour

Possible

8. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Dark Horse

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

11. Benh Zietlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Breakdown: If my estimation, we have eight directors fighting it out for five slots. Spielberg, Bigelow, and Affleck are in. Then it gets tricky. I have a hard time not seeing Ang Lee nominated for Life of Pi, which is being praised mostly for its amazing direction. Also, Les Miserables is a BIG film and I think Hooper will get recognized for it. Still, Russell, Haneke, and Tarantino are real possibilities. For now though, I think they’re on the outside looking in.

Best Actor

Locks

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Strong Possibilities

2. John Hawkes, The Sessions

3. Denzel Washington, Flight

4. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Richard Gere, Arbitrage

8. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Dark Horse

9. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Breakdown: Everyone knows Day-Lewis is getting nominated. However, he is the only one I feel comfortable calling a lock. Why? Because this genuinely looks like a VERY strong six man race and only five can be nominated. I have gone back and forth on who gets left out and right now it’s Hugh Jackman without the musical chair. Everyone else (Hawkes, Washington, Cooper, Phoenix) are also vulnerable to find themselves standing. For this category, I will give an early spoiler alert: that #1 slot could very well translate in who I pick to win eventually.

Best Actress

Locks

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Strong Possibilities

3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

6. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

7. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

8. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Breakdown: This race looks like it’s coming down to Lawrence and Chastain competing for the gold. And I think 85 year old French actress Riva has gotten enough kudos that she’s in. After that, the last two slots are a real battle for actresses listed 4-8, but today I give the edge to Cotillard and Wallis.

Best Supporting Actor

Locks

1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Strong Possibilities

3. Alan Arkin, Argo

4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

6. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Javier Bardem, Skyfall

8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

9. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

10. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Dark Horse

11. John Goodman, Argo or Flight

12. Ewan McGregor, The Impossible

13. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained

Breakdown: This is a bigger list because I think there’s a legitimate chance we see a surprise nominee, like Bardem or McConaughey or Henry. For now, these predictions are the same they were a month ago though.

Best Supporting Actress

Locks

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Strong Possibilities

2. Sally Field, Lincoln

3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions

4. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Possible

5. Amy Adams, The Master

6. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

7. Ann Dowd, Compliance

7. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

8. Kelly Reilly, Flight

9. Judi Dench, Skyfall

10. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Breakdown: Hathaway is definitely the front runner, but I believe real upset possibilities exist with Field or Smith or maybe Hunt. The fifth slot is tricky. I’m predicting Adams gets in, but Kidman has gained major momentum when her role in the critically panned and little seen film The Paperboy got SAG and Globe nominations and Barks and Dowd are certainly possible.

So there you have it, my blog reading friends! My current predictions. I’ll be back for another round soon enough.

The Rolling Stones

Well, it took me all of two months to break my promise of only writing about movies on this here blog of mine. Oh well. I can’t help it. I’ve been thinking about the greatest rock and roll band of all time today, The Rolling Stones.

As any of you who see my Facebook posts may be aware, my parents saw The Stones in concert last night in Newark, New Jersey. I ordered the concert on pay per view so I could watch along with them and it’s unbelievable how those four lads can still get it done after FIFTY years. They were joined by Bruce Springsteen, Lady Gaga, the Black Keys, and John Mayer in the show, but Mick, Keith, Bill, and Charlie were the attraction.

Let’s begin with the obvious: Mick Jagger is the greatest frontman of all time. Case closed. Any questions? His moves have inspired a hit song. There’s no one like him and if you could bottle whatever “it” is that Mick has, we’d all drink it.

More importantly, the Stones have been able to do something maybe no other band has done – take five decades of musical genres and master them, from rock to blues to R&B to country to disco to pop to ballads and on and on. That’s another thing that makes them special. Other bands have come and gone, but the Stones have stuck around, stayed with the times, and now are deservedly considered the best ever to do it. I love The Beatles. I love Led Zeppelin. I love The Doors. But The Stones… they’re just something else and their longevity may have a lot to do with it.

This longevity is something that struck me last night as I watched their incredible concert. They did an amazing job covering many in their extensive catalog of hits: “Get Off My Cloud”. “It’s Only Rock and Roll”. “Paint It Black”. “Gimme Shelter”. “Wild Horses”. “Miss You”. “Honkytonk Woman”. “Midnight Rambler”. “Start Me Up”. “Tumbling Dice”. “Brown Sugar”. “Sympathy for the Devil”. “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”. “Jumpin Jack Flash”. “Satisfaction”. I don’t know about you, but just reading that list of songs makes me smile.

And, what’s even more astonishing is the number of songs that they COULD have played and the crowd still would’ve gone crazy. We’re talking dozens more songs. That’s what 50 amazing years in music provides to the fans. That’s why it takes seven minutes for The Rolling Stones to sell out a concert.

Just so I’m “fair” in keeping this a “movie blog”… um, Martin Scorsese LOVES to use R.S. songs in his movies, particularly “Gimme Shelter”. And Mick Jagger had the unfortunate distinction of starring in the really bad 1992 sci-fi dud Freejack with Emilio Estevez and Anthony Hopkins.

Back to the music. If reading that incredible list of tracks made you smile, here’s 12 more personal favorites of mine that weren’t played last night.

From the 1966 album Aftermath, “Under My Thumb”

From the 1967 album Between the Buttons, “Ruby Tuesday”

From the 1971 album Sticky Fingers, “Bitch”

From the 1973 album Goats Head Soup, “Angie”

From the 1976 album Black and Blue, “Fool to Cry”

From the 1978 album Some Girls, “Beast of Burden”

From that same album, “Shattered”

From the 1980 album Emotional Rescue, the title track

From the 1981 album Tattoo You, “Waiting on a Friend”

From the 1986 album Dirty Work, “Harlem Shuffle”

From the 1989 album Steel Wheels, “Mixed Emotions”

From the 1997 album Bridges to Babylon, “Anybody Seen My Baby”

 

Box Office Results: December 14-16

It was the weekend for one debut and one debut only at the box office this weekend, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit. There was little doubt it would set the all-time December opening weekend, which had been held by 2007’s I Am Legend.

The Hobbit broke that record, earning $84.8 million this weekend and earning a great “A” CinemaScore grade from audiences. Sooooo… what was my prediction? $84.8 million. I can’t believe it either, quite frankly. If you don’t believe me, here’s the link from Thursday:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2012/12/13/box-office-predictions-dec-14-16-the-hobbit-arrives/

The film will likely hold that December record one exactly one year, when the second Hobbit installment opens next Christmas season. All I know is you can bet money on opening weekends and I’m kicking myself for not doing so.

As for the other films, Rise of the Guardians was second with $7.4 million, slightly above my $6.9 projection. Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln held up better than expected, partly due to its big number of Golden Globe nominations. It earned $7.2 million, well past my $5.8M projection for third. Skyfall dropped to fourth with $7 million, higher than my $6.2M prediction. Life of Pi was fifth with $5.4 million, just below my $5.5M projection and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 earned $5.2 million for sixth, slightly above my $4.9M projection.

Check back Thursday for next weekend’s projections, where a host of new titles will try to compete with Hobbit‘s second frame, including the Tom Cruise action thriller Jack Reacher, Judd Apatow’s comedy This is 40, the Seth Rogen/Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip, and Disney’s 3D re-release of Monsters Inc. 

Box Office Predictions (Dec 14-16): The Hobbit Arrives

After two very quiet weeks at the box office where Thanksgiving leftovers dominated and two others films (Killing Them Softly and Playing for Keeps) came and went, the Christmas movie season officially gets underway with the release of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.

Director Peter Jackson kicks off his new trilogy of films based on Tolkien with one of the most eagerly anticipated titles of 2012. It will almost surely make more money this weekend than the rest of Top Ten combined. But how big is the question? It’s the director of the Lord of the Rings movies returning to Middle Earth. It’s been heavily hyped. On the flip side, it is not receiving quite the critical acclaim or awards buzz of Jackson’s first trilogy.  Not to say that’ll keep the fans away because it won’t, but it may not open on the higher ends of expectations, which would be be over $100 million this weekend. The last Rings saga grossed $72 million in its inaugural weekend in 2003 and ticket prices have jumped since then, so it’s reasonable to expect Hobbit will open bigger. With a film this anticipated, anything less than $75 million would likely be a considerable disappointment. For whatever reason though, I am having a tough time envisioning it doing over $100 million (but I could be way wrong on this one).

Meanwhile, the Turkey Day leftovers will slide between 30-50% most likely. This weekend really is all about The Hobbit though. No studio dared to schedule competition against it. And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $84.8 million

2. Rise of the Guardians

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. Life of Pi

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Sunday, we will see how right or wrong I am about that little hobbit. Stay tuned!

Oscar History: 1994

Maybe more than any other year I can think of, 1994 stands as a year in Oscar history where hindsight has definitely changed public opinion on the Best Picture winner. There’s been plenty of examples: Rocky over Taxi Driver? Ordinary People over Raging Bull? Annie Hall over Star Wars? Chariots of Fire over Raiders of the Lost Ark? Gandhi over E.T.? Dances with Wolves over GoodFellas?

1994 is unique because there’s not one, but two movies that have grown in stature over that year’s winner. In the summer of 1994, a movie based on a fairly unknown novel came out of nowhere to become a smash hit that deeply connected with audiences: Robert Zemeckis’s Forrest Gump, starring Tom Hanks, Gary Sinise, Robin Wright Penn, and Sally Field. The movie was a phenomenon, becoming one of the highest grossing films of all time and second only that year to Disney’s The Lion King. The Academy would reward Gump with Best Picture, Director, and would give Hanks his second Best Actor win in a row, after winning for 1993’s Philadelphia. Hanks would become only the second actor in Oscar history, after Spencer Tracy, to achieve that historic distinction.

I’m a huge fan of the movie just like everyone else and in most years, Gump would be looked back at as a highly deserving winner. However, 1994 was a milestone year for a couple of other films.

First, Quentin Tarantino’s Pulp Fiction. As you may have noticed, I’m a huge fan of Quentin Tarantino and Pulp is now seen as possibly the most important and influential movie of the past 25 years. It certainly is by me. Pulp was a cultural phenomenon upon its release and its reputation has only grown since.

Then there’s that other movie: Frank Darabont’s The Shawshank Redemption. Many may not be aware, but Shawshank actually didn’t perform very well at the box office upon its release. It was critically acclaimed, but audiences didn’t respond right away. Once it reached video shelves, it took on a life of its own when audiences discovered just how wonderful it is. This all culminated a few years ago when Shawshank became the #1 ranked film on IMDB.com, over even The Godfather. It’s hard to find anyone nowadays who doesn’t absolutely adore Shawshank. In 1994, however, while it did get nominated, it wasn’t considered a real contender to win.

I suspect many a film buff, including this one, would certainly rank Pulp and Shawshank above Gump. The other two pictures nominated included an expected one, Robert Redford’s solid Quiz Show, about the game show scandals of the 1950s and a surprise, the British romantic comedy Four Weddings and a Funeral, starring Hugh Grant and Andie McDowell. Both are good movies that had no chance of winning considering the competition.

As already mentioned, Zemeckis would win the Director award for Gump, beating out Woody Allen for Bullets Over Broadway, Redford for Quiz Show, Tarantino for Pulp, and Kryzsztof Kieslowski for the foreign film Red. As further evidence of Shawshank not being regarded as highly as it is now, director Darabont wasn’t even nominated.

Gump love would lead Hanks to that second win in a row. Both Morgan Freeman for Shawshank and John Travolta for Pulp were nominees, along with Paul Newman for Nobody’s Fool and Nigel Hawthorne for The Madness of King George. In hindsight, seems like room should have been made Tim Robbins work in Shawshank as well.

Jessica Lange would win Best Actress for the little-seen indie film Blue Sky, edging out Jodie Foster in Nell, Winona Ryder in Little Women, Miranda Richardson in Tom and Viv, and Susan Sarandon in The Client (only nominee for an actor based on a John Grisham novel – fun fact!).

Veteran actor Martin Landau would take Supporting Actor for his great performance as monster movie icon Bela Lugosi in Tim Burton’s Ed Wood. The other nominees: Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp, Paul Scofield in Quiz Show, Gary Sinise in Gump, and Chazz Palminiteri in Bullets Over Broadway. Again, with the Shawshank angle, Bob Gunton’s work as the sadistic warden should have been recognized in this category.

Dianne Wiest would win Supporting Actress for Bullets Over Broadway, beating out Jennifer Tilly for that same film, Helen Mirren in The Madness of King George, Uma Thurman in Pulp, and Rosemary Harris for Tom and Viv. Surprisingly, neither Sally Field or Robin Wright Penn were recognized for Gump. I would also make a case for Kirsten Dunst for her breakthrough performance in Interview with the Vampire.

What else got left out? Not a whole lot, honestly. You could certainly make the case that Disney’s Lion King is one of their better animated features and could have received a Picture nomination. The Academy hardly ever recognizes comedic brilliance, so Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels hilarious work in Dumb and Dumber was the longest of long shots.

More than anything, 1994 in Oscar history will be remembered as a year where two of the most important movies of the last quarter century were nominated… and neither won.

Box Office Results: December 7-9

No major surprises this weekend with the box office results, but most films did better than my predictions and the dropoffs from last weekend were not as high as I anticipated.

Skyfall pulled off the rare feat of returning to the #1 spot in its fifth weekend after Twilight had been on top for the past three weeks. The all-time highest Bond grosser added another $11 million to its coffers, considerably higher than my meager $8.5M prediction.

Rise of the Guardians had the lowest drop-off at only 21%, putting it up to #2 with $10.5 million, higher than my $7.8M forecast.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 ended its box office reign and dropped to third with $9.2 million, a million higher than my $8.2 million prediction.

Lincoln was fourth with $9.1M (I low balled with $7.4M) and Life of Pi was fifth with $8.3M (higher than my $7.3M forecast).

The critically panned Gerard Butler romantic comedy with come in sixth, as I predicted, with a disappointing $6 million. I gave it a little too much credit and predicted $7 million.

Predictions for next weekend will be up Thursday, when Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit invades theaters. Spoiler alert: I’m going to predict it opens at #1.