It’s the calm before the summer season storm as the weekend’s new releases both came in below my fairly modest projections.
Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain with Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson took the #1 spot with $20 million, under my $23.8M projection. While the true crime action/comedy had a meager $25 million budget and looks to be profitable, this is a pretty soft opening. More discouraging signs lie ahead – it received a low C+ Cinemascore grade, indicating Pain will fade fast.
I was on the money with my projection for the second weekend of Tom Cruise’s Oblivion. The sci-fi thriller did dip below 50% in its sophomore frame with $17.4 million. My prediction was $17.3M. Gold star!
The Jackie Robinson biopic 42 was third in its third weekend with $10.7 million (just below my $11.5M estimate).
The weekend’s other new release was the ensemble comedy The Big Wedding. With mostly brutal reviews and a muted marketing campaign, not many RSVP’d for this Wedding. It tanked with $7.5 million and a fourth place showing. I was more generous and predicted it’d open with $11.2M. Oops.
Rounding out the top five was the animated The Croods, which took in $6.5 million (I said $6.6M, so gold star once again).
As mentioned, this is the calm before next weekend’s box office storm in the form of Tony Stark and Iron Man 3, which officially kicks off the summer season. Look for my post tomorrow on the blog with my projection for how it performs next weekend. And check out http://www.boxofficeace.com – where you can also predict the box office gross for Iron Man‘s third go-round at the multiplex!
Tom Cruise stars in an innovative, thought-provoking, and often brilliant science fiction thriller that stands as one of the genre’s most satisfying entries of the 21st century. The movie I speak of is 2002’s Minority Report. However, this is my review of Cruise’s new sci-fi thriller Oblivion.
This is Tron: Legacy director Joseph Kosinski’s second feature and he certainly succeeds at making Oblivion a visually pleasing experience. The film is set in 2077 with Cruise as Jack Harper, a drone repairman stationed on Earth fifty years after a cataclysmic event made the planet uninhabitable. When not repairing those pesky drones, he also must contend with the Scavs, aliens who invaded the planet. He is teamed with Victoria (Andrea Riseborough in a good performance) on his mission, who also serves as his love interest. They are in the final days of their assignment and are scheduled to go to Titan, a colony with survivors that was established after the terrible Earth events. Harper is plagued by dreams that he believes are from his past life (all Earthlings had their memories wiped clean) and he often visualizes the same mystery woman, played by Olga Kurylenko. You’ll likely remember this actress as the main Bond gal in Quantum of Solace.
These dreams lead Harper to some startling discoveries that lead him to question all the events which have occurred over the past fifty years. This includes meeting not only that mystery woman, but also a team of Earth dwellers led by Morgan Freeman.
It’s pretty much impossible to further describe the plot of Oblivion without revealing spoilers. The screenplay is filled with twists and turns. And therein is where some problems lie with the movie. It took four writers, including director Kosinki, to come up with a script that is needlessly complicated. The way the story is structured, we as an audience are left constantly playing catch-up and trying to piece together what we’ve been told. At least it’s a positive that some of the plot points are explained in a monologue by the nation’s narrator-in-chief Morgan Freeman. Still, Oblivion‘s writers seem to think their script is much more clever than it really is. Truth be told, the movie is essentially a rehash of many other sci-fi pics. And while I mentioned its visually appealing look, even that look is derivative of countless other sci-fi entries from Minority Report to Mad Max.
Cruise is solid as usual, though he has little chemistry with Kurylenko. His scenes with Riseborough fare better. Oscar winner Melissa Leo has a rather thankless role as a mission control operator. Freeman is, well, Freeman.
There’s plenty to like about Oblivion. Some of the sequences with Cruise at demolished landmarks like the Empire State Building work well. There are genuine moments of suspense with the Scavs and the drones, particularly in the first hour. Ultimately the screenplay hinders it from becoming a truly noteworthy genre title.
It’s Magic Mike and Django headlining one of the summer’s biggest action flicks, Roland Emmerich’s White House Down, out June 28th. Emmerich is known for being the director who knows how to blow shit up real good, as he’s proven with Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow.
This time around, the White House is overtaken by terrorists as secret service agent Channing Tatum must protect the U.S. President, played by Jamie Foxx. Plot sound familiar? It should. This spring’s Olympus Has Fallen seems like the same movie and it unexpectedly turned into a sleeper hit as it continues to inch its way past the $100 million dollar mark. Expectations are higher for White House Down and it’s likely to deliver potent numbers in the neighborhood of $140 million or higher.
Opening August 2nd is 2 Guns, with Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg pitted against a drug cartel. Both have had their share of success in the genre and as long as 2 Guns delivers even on a fairly satisfactory level, its numbers should be solid.
Paul Walker is bound to have a massive hit with the sixth Fast and the Furious pic (already covered in my sequels post). He’s got a smaller action thriller June 14th titled Vehicle 19. Judging from the trailer, it’s got Paul Walker in a car and that’s worked out pretty well before.
Another action genre entry is Getaway with Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez which involves a kidnapping plot. It’s out August 30th and no trailer has been released at press time.
Coming next to the 2013 Summer Movie Preview – movies that will attempt to make you laugh (also known as comedies) and they feature Melissa McCarthy, Seth Rogen, Kristin Wiig, and the re-teaming of Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson.
My continuation of the 2013 Summer Movie Preview rolls on with two entries that hope to kick start potential franchises.
First up is The Lone Ranger, which re-teams the potent duo of director Gore Verbinski and star Johnny Depp. Debuting July 3rd, Ranger has the plum Independence Day weekend slot and, with it, high expectations. Verbinski and Depp collaborated on the first three wildly successful Pirates of the Caribbean flicks, a billion dollar franchise. Co-starring Armie Hammer as the title character with Depp as Tonto, you can bet Disney is hoping for another long-term franchise.
The film has suffered a number of setbacks. It was pushed back from its original December 2012 release date. There have been reports of budget issues – Ranger‘s price tag is reportedly a hefty $250 million. Interest will certainly be high among audiences. The big question is: can Ranger reach Pirates-level numbers? I’m not so sure. Anything below $200 million domestically would be considered lackluster, but it’ll have to deliver for audiences to reach considerably above that.
August 23rd brings us The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones. Based on a bestselling series of novels by Cassandra Clare, Instruments is clearly going after the Twilight audience. Sony Pictures is hopeful it’ll resonate with audiences in the way Twilight did and develop further films. I’ll confess I know nothing about the popular books this is based on. I do see the cast is filled with relative unknowns and buzz for the picture seems pretty quiet. Still, that could certainly change over the next couple of months.
Next up on the Summer Movie Preview: action/adventure films including titles from Channing Tatum and Denzel Washington.
Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson look to nab the top spot at the box office this weekend with Pain and Gain. On Monday, I wrote a post outlining my thoughts on how it’ll open. The full rundown is linked below and I’m projecting a $23.8 million debut.
The weekend’s other newbie is The Big Wedding, with its all-star cast. Again, my Monday post on its box office viability is linked below. I’m going with $11.2 million.
As for the holdovers, the big question is how well Tom Cruise’s Oblivion holds up in its second weekend. It opened last weekend to an impressive $37 million debut. There are some signs of trouble brewing: it received a weak B- Cinemascore grade and it now has direct competition for the male audience with Pain. A drop of over 50% is a strong possibility.
42 and The Croods should experience relatively minimal declines and remain in the top five. And with that, my predictions for the last weekend before the BIG summer movies start rolling out:
1. Pain and Gain
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Oblivion
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. 42
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. The Big Wedding
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Updates will be posted throughout the weekend with the full wrap-up Sunday!
Twenty years ago, as I was just beginning to develop my love of film that has only grown through time, I was given a book about the films of Robert De Niro. It wasn’t just about his most famous pictures. It devoted extensive chapters to each and every one of the films Mr. De Niro had made up until that point which (at the time) was his first quarter century on the silver screen. It’s called The Films of De Niro by Douglas Brode.
For most of my life, when people ask me who I believe is the greatest actor of all time – my answer is De Niro. Unfortunately, this answer has little to do with – oh, let’s say the last 15 years or so of his career. At least.
At a certain point (especially with the dawn of the 21st century) Mr. De Niro simply seemed to stop caring about what movies he chose to do. Whereas a film lover used to anticipate each De Niro performance to see what this brilliant actor would do with each successive role, this ceased to be the case in relatively recent history.
I will not extensively go over the first 20-30 years of his career where we saw one amazing performance after another. We know the pictures are many. Mean Streets. The Godfather Part II. Taxi Driver. The Deer Hunter. Raging Bull. The King of Comedy. Midnight Run. GoodFellas. Cape Fear. Heat. Casino.
The slide may have started in the late 90s/early 2000s with two wildly successful comedies that were both good. Analyze This in 1999 and then Meet the Parents in 2000. They both turned De Niro into a briefly bankable comedic actor. His attempts to capitalize sometimes worked (Meet the Fockers was an enormous hit, even though I felt it didn’t hold a candle to the original). However, most of his follow-up comedies were mediocre at best: the lame Analyze This sequel Analyze That, the wasted opportunity buddy cop flick Showtime with Eddie Murphy, and the dreadful third entry into his franchise Little Fockers.
There were way too many instances during the last few years where my reaction was: “Why is De Niro doing that?” Some examples: two substandard horror/suspense flicks – 2004’s Godsend and 2005’s Hide and Seek. A poorly received re-teaming with Al Pacino in 2008’s Righteous Kill. Being part of the critically reviled ensemble piece New Year’s Eve in 2011. Playing second fiddle to both Jason Statham in 2011’s Killer Elite and 50 Cent in 2012’s direct-to-DVD Freelancers. Worst of all, in most of these titles, De Niro doesn’t even seem to be trying.
The big ensemble rom com The Big Wedding, opening this weekend, seems destined to join the growing list of forgettable De Niro films and performances. You never know. Maybe it will be the greatest wedding themed comedy of all time. Maybe it will be an influential De Niro performance that is studied and revered. Maybe it will be the best thing Katherine Heigl has done since Seth Rogen accidentally got her pregnant. Maybe it will be Diane Keaton’s best performance in a romantic comedy since the brilliant Annie Hall 36 years ago. Maybe I’ll get offered millions of dollars to take this blog public this weekend. You never know.
Luckily, us Bob fans have seen a silver lining just in the past year and it was, of course, called Silver Linings Playbook. His supporting role opposite Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence earned De Niro his first Oscar nomination in 21 years (since Cape Fear). It was a breath of fresh air to see Bob playing a well-written role opposite first-rate actors in a picture of supremely high quality. That had become a rarity in recent years.
It’s discouraging to think of that conversation when the latest generation of moviegoers discuss the greatest living actors today. They mention legitimate names like Day-Lewis and Crowe and Washington and Depp and Downey, Jr. and Penn and Gosling and DiCaprio. And if I were to chime in with De Niro, they might say, “What about him??” What About Bob? Thank goodness a certain Oscar-nominated film came out last year to remind them. And, frankly, remind myself.
The 1980s era is considered a golden age of comedy for many, including yours truly. The reasons are plenty – this time period saw the emergence of several “Saturday Night Live” stars into the world of film, including Bill Murray, Eddie Murphy, Chevy Chase, John Belushi, and Dan Aykroyd, among others. Stars from SNL Canadian counterpart “SCTV” had alums such as John Candy and Martin Short make their break onto the silver screen. And legendary comics like Steve Martin and Robin Williams made some of their best cinematic contributions during this era.
Dig a little deeper, though, and there’s no question that three names in particular – John Hughes, Harold Ramis, and John Landis – may be more responsible than anyone for the abundance of memorable comedies in this era. Between these three artists, their directorial and writing contributions to over two dozens titles between 1978-1993 define that time. In some cases, their participation in certain projects overlapped and they sometimes worked together. Looking back at the list of films these three participated in during a relatively short time frame is astonishing. And I mean seriously astonishing.
We’ll begin with the late John Hughes because he was the most self-contained unit of the trio. Between 1984 and 1989, Hughes directed and wrote the following six pictures:
Sixteen Candles
The Breakfast Club
Weird Science
Ferris Bueller’s Day Off
Planes, Trains, and Automobiles
Uncle Buck
I know, right? What an output. Added to that, Mr. Hughes wrote some movies he didn’t direct. They are:
Mr. Mom
European Vacation
Pretty in Pink
The Great Outdoors
Christmas Vacation
Home Alone
Incredible! And that’s just one of the three dudes I’m talking about! Hughes also wrote the original Vacation, which was directed by…
Harold Ramis. You may know him best as Egon Spengler in Ghostbusters. More recently, he played Seth Rogen’s dad in Knocked Up. Great performances aside, Ramis is one of the greatest comedy directors and writers ever. During the era in question, Ramis directed:
Caddyshack
Vacation
Groundhog Day
How’s that for three classic comedies? Mr. Ramis also wrote or co-wrote:
Animal House
Meatballs
Stripes
Ghostbusters
Back to School
Ramis’s writing work on the brilliant Animal House was assisted by equally brilliant direction from John Landis. In addition to that, Landis also directed:
The Blues Brothers
Trading Places
Spies Like Us
Three Amigos
Coming to America
That’s three immensely talented men responsible for the bulk of a wonderful era in comedy. Oh sure, there were others. Ivan Reitman directed Ghostbusters and its sequel and also directed Schwarzenegger’s hit comedies Twins and Kindergarten Cop. The team of David Zucker, Jim Abrahams, and Jerry Zucker brought us Airplane!, Ruthless People, and The Naked Gun. Franz Oz directed Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and What About Bob?
Hughes, Ramis, and Landis top the list, however. Without them, we wouldn’t know:
The Griswold family…
Or Ferris Bueller…
Or Sonny&Cher waking Bill Murray up every morning…
Or Delta House and Faber College…
Or The Blues Brothers…
Or Kevin McAllister taking on Harry and Marv…
Or “It’s in the hole!” and “Be the ball”…
Or “He slimed me…”
Or Randy Watson singing “The Greatest Love of All” with his band Sexual Chocolate…
Or “You mess with the bull… you get the horns”…
I think you get the picture. When we look at what’s followed in the comedy genre since then, there are names in more recent time periods that stand out. Judd Apatow. Adam McKay. Wes Anderson. Todd Phillips. Kevin Smith. The Farrelly Brothers. Ben Stiller.
From the late 70s to the early 90s – it was Hughes, Ramis, and Landis. And we’re all lucky for that. And we’ve laughed hard (many times) because of them and will continue to every time we catch Bluto in the commissary. Or Neal Page trying to make it to Thanksgiving dinner. Or the hilarious car chases with Jake and Elmwood. Or…
The real box office battle is likely to occur between newcomer Pain and Gain and Oblivion‘s second frame this coming weekend, but there is a potential wild card with The Big Wedding, the ensemble comedy feature that debuts Friday.
Featuring an all-star cast that includes Robert De Niro, Katherine Heigl, Diane Keaton, Susan Sarandon, and Robin Williams, Wedding has seen a curiously muted marketing campaign. It feels a bit as if Lionsgate has little confidence with it.
That could be a sign that, for a lack of a better term, The Big Wedding sucks. That definitely wouldn’t be a shock – the trailer isn’t very funny and it looks derivative of a lot of other flicks.
The signs point to a weak opening – little fanfare, blah trailer. The cast, filled with famous faces, doesn’t contain one actor who can open a movie nowadays. The only thing this Wedding has in its favor: there is a serious dearth of movies out right now with appeal to the female audience. That factor alone could push it to a larger than expected opening.
Anything above $14-15 million would have to be looked at as a pleasant surprise and a strong showing from females could get it there. Anything below $10 million is pretty embarrassing… and it also wouldn’t surprise me if that happened. I’ll give this Wedding the benefit of the doubt that it reaches double digits, but not by much.
The Big Wedding opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
Michael Bay’s action-comedy Pain and Gain hits theaters this weekend and will attempt to nab the #1 spot over the second weekend of Tom Cruise’s Oblivion, which grossed a very solid $38 million this weekend.
Pain and Gain stars Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who have been omnipresent at the multiplexes in recent months. Wahlberg had a monster hit last summer with Ted and a considerable box office disappointment with January’s crime drama Broken City. The Rock, meanwhile, has been very busy. In February, it was the mid-size hit Snitch. In March, the G.I. Joe sequel. Pain and Gain for April. And for May, it’s the sixth installment in the Fast and Furious franchise.
Director Bay is mostly known for gargantuan budgeted action spectacles like Armageddon, Pearl Harbor, and the Transformers films. Pain and Gain comes with a relatively tiny $25 million budget so its highly likely to be profitable.
The combo of Wahlberg and Johnson could bring out the male and female audience. The trailers have been decent. There is, of course, still competition for the male audience with Oblivion and the female audience with this weekend’s other new entry The Big Wedding.
Pain and Gain has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. Anything over its $25 million budget for an opening weekend would be terrific. Anything below $16-17 million would be considered fairly disappointing. I’m going a little closer to the high end.
Will my predicted opening weekend gross be enough to vault it to #1? You’ll have to wait until Wednesday for my Top 5 predictions, but my prediction here is:
Pain and Gain opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million
Later this evening, my forecast for the other opener this weekend, The Big Wedding.
It’s not often that you see a performer literally become a movie star before your eyes on the silver screen, but such an occurrence took place two summers ago.
The film was Bridesmaids, the hilarious Kristin Wiig pic that became the comedy event of 2011, to the tune of an incredible $169 million domestic at the box office. We all know by now it vaulted Wiig from SNL standout to movie star.
To many, including me, the revelation was Melissa McCarthy as Megan, Maya Rudolph’s hilarious and straight talking future sister-in-law. Her performance was the highlight of the picture, so much so that it earned McCarthy a Supporting Actress Oscar nomination. That’s usually unheard of for a comedic performance.
And while her performance was filled with generous laugh out loud moments (airplane scene, wedding dress shopping scene), it’s a quieter scene between her and Wiig that gave Bridesmaids its heart.
The scene takes place after Wiig’s character Annie has hit rock bottom. She’s moved in with her mother (who likes to paint celebrities), alienated her about to married best friend in grand giant cookie smashing fashion, and given up on a promising relationship with a kind policeman. It is McCarthy’s character who manages to snap Annie out of her funk with a truly inspirational speech that is both humorous and touching. I remember watching this scene in the theater and when Megan finally tells Annie to stop blaming the world for her problems, the theater practically broke out in spontaneous applause.
This speech works because it’s well-written. More than that, it works because McCarthy delivers it so well and so convincingly. It elevates her character from simply comic relief to being the soul of the film. I would put forth that this scene is why McCarthy got that Oscar nomination. She deserved it.
And her movie career has only improved in the past two years. This spring, McCarthy headlined Identity Thief, which was a huge hit. This summer’s The Heat with Sandra Bullock is likely to be another blockbuster.
It all started here, however. McCarthy’s speech gave us the opportunity to watch a new movie star blossom in real time. It’s a brilliant performance in a perfect scene.
