And now, beginning on the first day of September, comes my early Oscar predictions. The race for Academy gold has truly begun over the past few days with the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals in full swing. The Toronto Film Festival is just around the corner. That means a large number of Oscar hopefuls opening this fall are screening and reviews are coming out. Due to that, we already have a number of films that now seem likely to receive nominations in the Picture category and for performers as well.

I will begin with Supporting Actress before moving onto Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and Picture. Let’s begin, shall we?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

It has yet to screen anywhere, but August: Osage County (based on a well-known play) is in talks for a number of possible nominations, especially for Meryl Streep who plays the matriarch of a severely dysfunctional family. It would appear that her performance will likely be for Supporting, though it could change to the lead Actress category. She’s pretty much considered the greatest actress of all time and her inclusion here seems probable. For the same film, the nomination of Margo Martindale (a seasoned actress who’s popped up in supporting roles in numerous pictures) is more of a question mark. I believe that if the film resonates with audiences, her performance (said to be a highlight) could be nominated. Another likelihood is the nomination of Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. The pic has caught on with audiences, her performance has received positive notices, and she’s one of the most famous people on the planet. At Telluride over the weekend, Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave screened and became an instant Oscar contender in numerous categories, including this one. The performance of newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is said to be fantastic and, at press time, I think she’s in. The rest of the race is wide open. Director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated and Jennifer Lawrence could get a nod for American Hustle. Octavia Spencer (who won two years ago for The Help) is a strong possibility for Fruitvale Station. Cameron Diaz looks to have a juicy role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Amy Adams has been nominated multiple times and her role in Spike Jonze’s Her could be recognized (though she will also be in the mix for lead in American Hustle). Naomie Harris plays Nelson Mandela’s wife in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I’m not willing to put her in until the pic is screened. June Squibb is receiving good notices for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, though Bruce Dern may receive the lions share of awards attention for that film. Same goes for Sally Hawkins’ work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine where lead Cate Blanchett will be touted the most. Blanchett herself is a contender in this category for George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, but once again she’ll probably get recognized for Best Actress in Jasmine. The crime thriller Prisoners with Hugh Jackman received raves at Telluride and Melissa Leo (winner three years ago for The Fighter) has been mentioned. The Coen Bros Inside Llewyn Davis should get nominations and that may extend to Carey Mulligan’s work. Same goes for Vanessa Redgrave in Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, which nobody has seen yet (it doesn’t even have a trailer which makes predicting for it tough at the moment).

Whew. So there’s the layout. Like I said, lots of potential nominees. As of September 1st, however, here are my predictions for the category:

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in Best Actress instead of this category. This means co-star Julia Roberts is likely to be campaigned for in this category and I’m taking Meryl out and putting Julia in. Furthermore, I no longer feel Margo Martindale gets nominated here and I’m substituting Naomie Harris as Winnie Mandela in the Mandela biopic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TODD’S PREDICTIONS):

Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it! I’ll be back with Supporting Actor soon enough…

The Telluride Film Festival is happening this holiday weekend and it is typically a venue where Oscar contenders are born. This seems to be the case for Denis Villenueve’s Prisoners (out September 20), a crime thriller starring Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall. The first screening has been met with rapturous critical reviews with more than one saying it’s career-best work from Jackman and Gyllenhall. Just last year, Jackman received his first Best Actor nomination for Les Miserables. Based on the reaction to Prisoners, it’s very well likely he’ll receive two in a row.

Canadian director Villenueve is making his American debut with Prisoners, about a child abduction. The film is set to be extremely unsettling and violent but also, according to a number of early reviews, brilliant. One prominent critic compared it to Seven and Mystic River. Based on reaction alone at Telluride, Prisoners is now in contention for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Jackman), and Best Supporting Actor (Gyllenhall). There’s also some talk already of Melissa Leo for Supporting Actress. She plays the mother of a suspect in the case.

Prisoners has immediately become a movie to pay close attention to this awards season and it’s certainly vaulted to the top of my must-see pics of the fall.

Ben Stiller has been one of the most dependable comedic stars of the past two decades. Yet he’s made nothing that garnered the Academy’s attention (with the exception of a Supporting Actor nomination for Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder). That could change this year with his directorial effort The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, in which he also stars.

The film is a remake of a 1947 Danny Kaye picture. Stiller plays a normal everyday Joe who decides to live out his adventurous fantasies across the world. The actor has had good luck with projects he’s chosen to direct, especially with his last two comedic efforts Zoolander and Tropic Thunder. Based on the trailer, this seems like the type of picture that may resonate with audiences if done well and also connect with Oscar voters. Actors known primarily for comedy have a checkered history (at best) with the Academy when they played more dramatic parts . Many thought Jim Carrey would receive a Best Actor nomination for 1998’s The Truman Show. It didn’t happen. That same year, Steve Martin was being mentioned as a potential Supporting Actor candidate for David Mamet’s The Spanish Prisoner. Once again it never materialized. Over the past ten years, however, we’ve seen examples that include a Best Actor nomination in 2003 for Bill Murray in Lost in Translation and Eddie Murphy for Supporting Actor in 2006 for Dreamgirls.

Critical reaction will be key and it’ll be awhile before the word is out on Walter Mitty. At press time, though, this looks like Stiller’s best opportunity so far for his film and his acting to receive awards attention. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, which costars Kristin Wiig, and Sean Penn, is out Christmas Day.

It’s not even September yet, but tonight on the blog I will make my first declarative statement about the Best Picture race at the Oscars:

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity will be nominated for Best Picture. I wouldn’t say pencil it in for a nomination among the five to ten films that will get recognized. You can use a pen. Director Cuaron will receive a nomination for Best Director.

Why so certain? Well, Gravity had its world premiere opening at the Venice Film Festival and many reviews are out as of this morning. You can peruse Dark Horizons’ recap of what the critics thought here:

http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/28361/first-reviews-for-gravity-arrive

Bottom line: they are in love with the picture, which is a thriller set in space starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. Cuaron is known for directing visual feasts, including Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (the first of the franchise in my view) and 2006’s Children of Men, which should have received a Best Picture nod. The reviews have gone out of their way to praise the visual look of Gravity and it will certainly receive nominations in multiple tech categories.

With all the praise that came out today, the chances of Bullock getting a Best Actress nomination and Clooney receiving Supporting Actor recognition have significantly improved. I would expect Gravity to be a big box office performer upon its October 4th release. And, now, its chances as a performer at the 2013 Oscars seem assured.