Oldboy Box Office Prediction

Unless I’m really missing something here, Spike Lee’s Oldboy starring Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson seems to be flying in way under the radar to an extent that I did not expect.

When this project was announced, this remake of a 2003 South Korean critically acclaimed cult favorite looked like it could be a high-profile fall release. However, Film District and Universal seem to have very little confidence in it. The marketing campaign has been muted and no mainstream reviews have been released at press time. If anything, its tepid marketing campaign reminds me of Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, another flick I thought would be more highly touted than it was. It ended up earning a paltry $7.8 million in its debut. Added to that, Oldboy is only being released on roughly 500 screens on Wednesday which will surely hinder its opening.

Add all that up and I’m not expecting a whole lot with Oldboy.

Oldboy opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $3.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Homefront Box Office Prediction

The omnipresent James Franco is back in theaters again over the Thanksgiving weekend with Homefront, in which he plays a meth dealer dueling with a DEA agent played by Jason Statham. The film costars Winona Ryder and Kate Bosworth. Franco has been a busy man in 2013 with Oz the Great and Powerful, Spring Breakers, and This is the End. This is likely to be his least talked about picture.

While TV ads have been showing frequently for Homefront, I don’t see this doing a whole lotta business over the holiday frame. Recent Statham flicks have been met with lukewarm openings: 2011’s Killer Elite at $9.3M, 2012’s Safe with $7.8M, and this year’s Parker with $7 million. The screenplay is actually written by Sylvester Stallone, who once envisioned this as a starring vehicle for him. Reviews have been mostly negative so far.

The Thanksgiving time frame may allow Homefront slightly higher numbers than the last couple of Statham pics. Not much higher, though.

Homefront opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $12.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Oldboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Black Nativity Box Office Prediction

Two weekends ago, African American audiences catapulted The Best Man Holiday to an astonishing $30 million opening weekend. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, Fox Searchlight is hoping a similar result greets Black Nativity.

The musical drama features an all-star cast that includes Forest Whitaker, Jennifer Hudson, Angela Bassett, Tyrese Gibson, Mary J. Blige, and rapper Nas. The Christmas themed flick may well connect with its intended audience. While I don’t see it reaching Best Man Holiday numbers (even over the five-day Thanksgiving frame), I do see it posting a very solid opening that should make the studio quite happy.

Black Nativity opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $26.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Oldboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For Philomena, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Frozen Box Office Prediction

My onslaught of Thanksgiving box office predictions which includes six films opening or expanding begins with Disney’s animated Frozen, loosely based on Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale The Snow Queen.

The story of princesses and reindeer and (yes) a snow queen is likely to capture the attention of family audiences over the long holiday weekend. Reviews have been strong and it currently sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Frozen will look to follow the same box office pattern as Tangled, which the studio opened over turkey weekend three years ago. That film captured $49.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday weekend and $68.7 million over the long Wednesday to Sunday frame.

It’s hard to imagine Frozen not having just about those same numbers this year. I don’t see it debuting much bigger than Tangled and don’t see it opening much smaller. Disney should be pleased with the results of their 53rd animated feature.

Frozen opening weekend prediction: $48.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $69.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Oldboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: November 22-24

It may not have reached some of the lofty estimates that prognosticators put out there, but The Hunger Games: Catching Fire still broke the November record while having the #4 domestic opening of all time.

Catching Fire made $161.1 million, just outpacing the $160.8M debut of last year’s The Dark Knight Rises. This is slightly below my $166.7M estimate, which was a bit lower than many other predictions. This is still a terrific opening and was +6 higher than its predecessor in March of 2012.

Truth be told, everything grossed under what I estimated for the weekend. Thor: The Dark World was second with $14.1 million in its third weekend (lower than my $16.1M prediction) and The Best Man Holiday was third with $12.5 million in weekend #2 (lower than my $15.9M prediction).

Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man was DOA with a fourth place opening at $8.2 million (under my $11.2M prediction). This continues a recent string of flops for the actor with titles that include The Watch and The Internship. The animated Free Birds was at the five spot with $5.3 million. I incorrectly had Last Vegas taking that spot with $6.2 million (it earned $4.4M).

Be sure to check the blog as the day rolls on when I’ll be posting predictions for SIX Thanksgiving releases: Frozen, Black Nativity, Homefront, Oldboy, The Book Thief, and Philomena.

We’re the Millers Movie Review

While there’s nothing really remarkable or particularly original about We’re the Millers, it still manages to provide quite a bit of raunchy fun with a more than capable cast to boot.

The pic reunites Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis, stars of another (slightly better) R rated hit Horrible Bosses. Sudeikis is low-level pot dealer David, forced to go on a Mexican drug run by his quirky boss (Ed Helms, surprisingly ineffective in a broadly written role). Sudeikis enlists his stripper neighbor Rose (Aniston), 18 year-old virgin neighbor Kenny (Will Poulter), and runaway teenager Casey (Emma Roberts). Together – they are The Millers, posing as a family to divert suspicion from driving a tricked out RV across the Mexican border filled with two tons of marijuana.

Naturally, many things don’t go as planned and the Millers experience a number of adventures while – yes, arguing and yes, bonding just like a real family! You’ll see where We’re the Millers is heading from a mile away but the film works often because of its talented cast and frequent laugh out loud moments. While Aniston is stuck doing the “playing against type” naughty girl routine again (like in Bosses), she sells it well. Sudeikis is seamlessly making the transition from SNL MVP to movie star. And many of the most humorous moments come from supporting players Nick Offerman and Kathryn Hahn as Don and Edie Fitzgerald, another RV sporting couple who befriend the Millers. These two character actors work well enough together that I wouldn’t completely oppose a We’re the Fitzgeralds spinoff.

We’re the Millers is not Wedding Crashers or Superbad or The 40 Yr. Old Virgin – movies that I find myself quoting and going back to frequently. However, I’d put it on the level of a Date Night or Forgetting Sarah Marshall – movies that, when they’re rerunning on TV, I probably won’t turn off.

*** (out of four)

Taken 2 Movie Review

In early 2009, Taken was an unexpected smash hit that gave Liam Neeson a second career as a badass action star. The film was a B-movie treat in which ex CIA agent Bryan (Neeson) used his “very particular set of skills” to retrieve kidnapped daughter Kim (Maggie Grace) from Albanian sex traffickers.

Taken‘s box office success has led to this sequel nearly four years later. Original director Pierre Morel is out and the awesomely named Olivier Megaton is behind the camera, but original screenwriters Luc Besson and Robert Mark Kamen return to pen the script. The concept is simple: instead of Kim being taken, this time it’s Mom – Lenore (Famke Janssen). Years after their divorce, Bryan and Lenore are starting to become a bit “taken” with each other again – if ya know what I mean. Mom and daughter join Bryan in Istanbul where he’s just finished a job and it’s not long before the father of one of the guy’s Bryan brutally offed in the original looks to exact revenge. He’s played by Rade Serbedziga, who gets to growl his way through dialogue about avenging his perv boy son’s death.

Much of Taken 2 simply feels by-the-numbers and the action isn’t as impressive as in the first. One problem is that Neeson doesn’t get to show off that particular set of skills enough. Too much of the pic is filled with lackluster car chases, though Neeson does involve Kim in the most intense driving demonstration since that high schooler drove Leslie Nielsen and John Houseman in The Naked Gun. The fact that Kim is dating her first boyfriend and taking her driving test for the third time involves some suspension of disbelief since the actress playing her is 30 years old. I’ll chalk that up to the rapid aging process due to her stressful first “vacation” in the original.

Truth be told, Taken 2 will hold your attention for its brisk 90 minutes, but this a prime example of an unnecessary sequel. The film even forecasts a potential third Taken towards the end. After all, these endless henchman Bryan is offing will always have vengeful relatives. How much “taking” can one family take? Taken 2 suggests stopping at one abduction probably would have been enough.

** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: November 22-24

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.

The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $166.7 million

2. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!

Delivery Man Box Office Prediction

He’s had one pretty big box office disappointment earlier this year with The Internship and that trend may well continue for Vince Vaughn with Delivery Man.

The film is actually a scene-for-scene remake of a 2011 Canadian feature titled Starbuck and Vaughn was brought in to give the American version some star power. Vaughn plays a sperm donor who finds out he has fathered 533 children. Chris Pratt and Cobie Smulders costar.

Delivery Man sounds a bit gimmicky and audiences may treat this with ambivalence. Reviews so far have been mixed. There’s also the matter of another picture opening Friday that is likely to divert the attention of audiences: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. The decision to open this against that might not have been a wise one.

If Delivery Man gets past $15 million, I’d be surprised. I think it’s more to reach the low end of double digits.

Delivery Man opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my prediction post on The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Box Office Prediction

In March of 2012, The Hunger Games opened to a massive $152.5 million domestic opening weekend and finished with a gargantuan $408M domestic haul. To say its sequel Catching Fire is eagerly awaited is quite the understatement.

Director Gary Ross is out and I Am Legend director Francis Lawrence is in. Of course, it’s a different Lawrence (Jennifer) and her costars Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Stanley Tucci, Donald Sutherland, Lenny Kravitz and newcomers Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Jeffrey Wright that audiences are eager to see. Catching Fire comes with a much bigger $140 million budget compared to the $78M price tag for the original.

Reviews suggest this adaptation of Suzanne Collins novel is very faithful and the film sits an impressive 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Just how big could this be? Well, big. The sequel is likely to open larger than its predecessor, which currently holds the #6 all-time highest domestic opening. There are some who believe it could debut above $175 million which would put it at #2 all-time, above this year’s $174M opening of Iron Man 3. I’m not going that high, but would certainly say it’s possible. I believe a debut in the mid to high 160’s is the most plausible scenario. My prediction would put The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at #4 all-time – just below the $169M haul of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 and above the $160M opening of The Dark Knight Rises.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opening weekend prediction: $166.7 million

For my prediction on Delivery Man with Vince Vaughn, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/