Oscar Predictions: Todd’s December Take

Well, folks, we’ve arrived at my December predictions for the six major categories at the Oscars! And there’s been significant changes in some categories. There’s not one category that’s remained the same from my last go-round of guesses. A lot has happened since my November predictions. Every major contender has now screened with critics. Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been announced. And, per usual, things are unclear. Don’t get me wrong – there’s certain films and actors that seem destined for nominations. However, no field is close to being set. Not even close.

For the first time in making my predictions, I am predicting the winner in each race. I would expect at least one more round (more likely two) prior to nominations being announced in mid January. Here we go!

BEST PICTURE

Todd’s Predictions –

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Saving Mr. Banks

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Analysis: Yes, I am keeping the number at nine predicted pictures (there could be anywhere from five to ten). This new round of predictions brings in three new films – Her, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks – and takes out three – All is Lost, Blue Jasmine, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Other possible nominees include Dallas Buyer’s Club, August: Osage County, Lone Survivor, Philomena, Rush, Prisoners and Fruitvale Station.

Predicted Winner: Conventional wisdom is that the race is between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle as potential spoilers. My gut tells me (at least for now) that 12 Years a Slave is in the driver’s seat and it is my current prediction to win.

BEST DIRECTOR

Todd’s Predictions –

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Analyis: As I see it, only Cuaron and McQueen are surefire nominees and should compete with each other for the win. Let’s not forget that last year’s Director nominees were a total shocker to everyone when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) did not pick up expected nominations. My predictions today reflect putting Payne and Scorsese in and taking J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) and Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) out. Chandor seems highly unlikely to get a nod at this point, but any combination of Greengrass, Spike Jonze (Her), the Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis), or John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks) could get in.

Predicted Winner: As mentioned, Cuaron and McQueen are the frontrunners. I could easily see a scenario where 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture and Cuaron still nabs Director for the amazing technical achievement that Gravity was. It’s tempting, but for now, my prediction is that Picture and Director will match up and McQueen wins.

BEST ACTOR

Todd’s Predictions –

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Analysis: This is shaping up to be by far the most fascinating race to watch. My current predictions put Dern and DiCaprio in and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her) out. And don’t count out Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Christian Bale (American Hustle), or Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). Frankly, I would say Ejiofor is the only nominee I would be shocked at if he’s not nominated. The crazy thing is – I could see any one of the five predicted nominees actually win and that’s rare. This is an extraordinarily tough call, but right now I’m staying on the 12 Years bandwagon and going with Ejiofor.

BEST ACTRESS

Todd’s Predictions –

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Analysis and Predicted Winner: Just one change here – Amy Adams (American Hustle) out and Emma Thompson in. This looks to be a showdown between Blanchett (who’s picking up the majority of critics awards) and Bullock (the most popular actress starring in a wildly popular film). The fact that Bullock won four years ago leads me to give Blanchett a slight edge and she’s my prediction. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said), as well as Adams.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Todd’s Predictions –

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Analysis: Of the five predicted, I am only confident about Fassbender and Leto. My current predictions have Hanks in and his Captain Phillips costar Barkhad Abdi out. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdi, John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Will Forte (Nebraska), Harrison Ford (42), or the late James Gandolfini (Enough Said) nominated.

Predicted Winner: A 12 Years sweep could give Fassbender the prize. However, my prediction is Jared Leto for his acclaimed work in Dallas Buyer’s Club.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Analysis: Voters might not be able to resist nominating Julia so she’s in and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) is out. Other not predicted contenders could be Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) and Margo Martindale (August: Osage County). This race appears to be coming down to Lawrence and Nyong’o.

Predicted Winner: Much like Supporting Actor, a 12 Years night should include Nyong’o. And then came Jennifer Lawrence, who’s having an incredible film year with her Best Actress Oscar win for Silver Linings Playbook and headlining the massive hit The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Her performance in Hustle is garnering raves. Could she win two years in a row? Between her and Nyong’o, this seems like a coin toss at this juncture. For now, I’ll predict the 12 Years momentum gives Nyong’o the win.

And there you have it. To recap, my current winner predictions:

PICTURE – 12 Years a Slave

DIRECTOR – Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

ACTOR – Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

ACTRESS – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

SUPPORTING ACTOR – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

2013: The Year of James Franco

James Franco seemed to be the Waldo of 2013 in film – the man was everywhere. No season of the year passed without a Franco appearance in something. And his omnipresence extended beyond the silver screen and branched out to video parodies and cable TV events.

It started off in March with the release of his most high-profile project, Oz the Great and Powerful. Disney’s prequel to 1939’s The Wizard of Oz from Sam Raimi may not have been well regarded by critics (or, for that matter, this blogger) but it earned a very impressive $234 million domestically.

Just a couple of weeks later came Spring Breakers from director Harmony Korine which cast Franco as Alien, a gangsta rapper. The role earned Franco raves from critics and the pic is already on its way to becoming a cult classic.

Summer brought us This is The End, the post apocalyptic R-rated comedy in which Franco, Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, Danny McBride, and other played themselves. It was a winner with critics and audiences alike and was a comedic high point this year, earning over $100 million domestically.

Last month was Homefront, in which the actor played a meth kingpin battling Jason Statham. This movie has failed to connect with audiences.=, but maybe Mr. Franco just wanted to appear in a flick written by Sylvester Stallone.

Here’s what I love about Franco and here’s why he earns a final spot in this blog series: the dude is unpredictable. He could have easily coasted on his handsome looks and probably headlined rom coms and the occasional action pic for the rest of his career. It’s damn clear he isn’t down with that. You’re just as likely to see Franco pop up in a supporting role in an indie flick as you are in a comedy or drama or anything else for that matter. He gets an Oscar nomination for 127 Hours and then stars in a blockbuster pic Rise of the Planet of the Apes and then costars in stoner comedy Your Highness.

While Franco was everywhere on screen this year, this applied to the small screen and computer screen as well. He got the good sport award by subjecting himself to a Comedy Central Roast.

And even more hilariously, Franco and Pineapple Express buddy Rogen did a shot for shot parody of Kanye West’s ridiculous “Bound” video that is one of the funniest things I saw all year. Check the side by side comparison if you don’t believe me.

Franco is showing no signs of slowing down. So far it looks like 2014 will bring Good People, a thriller with Kate Hudson, True Story, a drama with Jonah Hill, and a cameo appearance in the Veronica Mars movie.

This concludes my six-part series on performers who had a major impact on cinema this year. So thank you to Jennifer Lawrence, Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, Matthew McConaughey, Melissa McCarthy, and James Franco for the memories!

Box Office Predictions: December 13-15

Two very different sequels open this Friday at multiplexes and, collectively, I’m predicting they will inject over $110 million in business to the box office. We have The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas debuting and you can read my detailed posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/

I would anticipate the top two of the past couple of weekends – Disney’s Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – to drop to third and fourth. In the five spot, I expect a bigger fall for this weekend’s #3 Out of the Furnace than the current #4 Thor: The Dark World. This should allow the Marvel property to just drop one place into fifth.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

I’ll have an update posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!

Pacific Rim Movie Review

Pacific Rim is visionary director Guillermo del Toro’s love letter to giant monster movies of old but updated with 21st century effects that the makers of Godzilla in 1954 couldn’t even fathom. Here moviegoers are introduced to the terms “Kaiju” and “Jaegers” (not the shot you’ll surely regret the next morning). You see, Kaijus (strange creature in Japanese) are giant alien monsters that attack Earth from below ocean level. Jaegers are giant frickin robots that are commanded by two human pilots inside the machine. The pilots, in order to combat the strength of the Kaijus, do some sort of mind meld trick together where they can read each other’s thoughts and memories in order to create a stronger connection. Or something like that.

The heroes of the pic have a little history with those nasty Kaijus. Pilot Raleigh Becket (Charlie Hunnam) lost his copilot and brother (played by Mike from TV’s “Homeland”) when they battled one and Mako Mori (Rinko Kikuchi) lost her whole family in an attack when she was a child. It is Raleigh and Mako who must become copilots in order to thwart Kaiju mayhem in Hong Kong. Their commanding officer is played by Idris Elba in the picture’s strongest performance.

There’s some colorful supporting characters in the mix. Charlie Day of “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” and Horrible Bosses is a quirky research scientist tasked with finding new ways to defeat the monsters. Ron Perlman (who’s collaborated with del Toro on the Hellboy flicks) deals black market Kaiju organs for profit. And there’s a run-of-the-mill subplot about another Jaeger (Robert Kazinsky) who doesn’t trust Raleigh and yadda yadda yadda.

Let’s be clear: when hearing that del Toro was making a giant monster movie, you figured this would be a visual treat. And there are certainly many moments where that’s exactly what we get. Apparently the director decided that whenever a Kaiju does attack, the weather forecast must call for precipitation. Seriously. I don’t think there’s one action scene that doesn’t feature a torrential downpour. These action spectacles feature cool moments like a Jaeger literally hitting a Kaiju with an enormous ship. Both Jaegers and Kaijus are so massive that they pretty much take a building down with each movement they make. While the fight scenes can have a sameness feel to them (with the nighttime rainstorm theme running constantly), there are certainly plenty of moments of visual awe. This is the level where Pacific Rim occasionally works well. If del Toro was attempting to get you emotionally invested in the characters (and it seems like he often is), it doesn’t quite succeed. The lead characters of Raleigh and Mako are rather blandly written. Day and Perlman have fun with their characters, but the roles aren’t particularly memorable.

Pacific Rim is about spectacle and a filmmaker paying homage to the films he loved as a child. It’s worth mentioning that the movies del Toro is celebrating usually were about 90 minutes long and not the bloated 132 minute run time here. We’ve seen del Toro create imaginary worlds of eye popping splendor before in Pan’s Labyrinth and the Hellboy pics. They were more satisfying and original experiences than what we have here. There is, however, just enough cool effects here to warrant a recommendation – albeit a regretfully muted one.

*** (out of four)

2013: The Year of Melissa McCarthy

In the summer of 2011, the star of the CBS sitcom “Mike and Molly” Melissa McCarthy broke through to moviegoers in grand fashion with her supporting role in Bridesmaids. The film was a smash, grossing $169 million and earning McCarthy a rare Supporting Actress Oscar nomination for a comedic role.

After that terrific Bridesmaids part, McCarthy pretty much sat 2012 out with just a small part in Judd Apatow’s This Is 40. 2013 is a different story and this year has solidified McCarthy’s standing as Hollywood’s most bankable funny girl.

February’s Identity Thief with Jason Bateman would put her box office abilities to the test. It received mostly poor reviews and gave McCarthy her first starring role. The result? Thief grossed a fabulous $134 million. Critics may not have been on its side, but audiences were.

In June, McCarthy would pair up with Sandra Bullock in the buddy cop flick The Heat and it managed to accelerate the star’s box office cache. The Heat earned $159 million giving McCarthy two laugh fests that easily crossed the century mark domestically.

Technically, there were three pics featuring her that crossed that milestone. McCarthy had a small role in The Hangover Part III, which made $112 million but was considered a financial disappointment. However, its subpar performance had nothing to do with McCarthy.

In addition to her work on her sitcom, 2014 will see McCarthy on the silver screen with two promising projects. There’s St. Vincent de Van Nuys which pairs her with bonafide comedic legend Bill Murray. July 4th brings us Tammy, a road trip pic that also features Susan Sarandon, Dan Aykroyd, and Kathy Bates.

Bridesmaids proved that McCarthy had the potential to be a major film star. Her movies in 2013 turned that potential into reality and it earns her a deserved spot on the list of performers who had a big impact this year.

My final entry in this blog series arrives tomorrow with an actor who was everywhere in 2013 from a famous yellow bricked land to… brilliantly spoofing a famous rapper’s ridiculous video?

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas Box Office Prediction

The wizards and dragons of The Hobbit film series aren’t the only popular franchise characters returning to theaters during the second weekend of December 2013. Madea and company are back with Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, the fifth entry in the cash cow of a series.

Let’s take a trip down the Madea franchise lane with the openings of each picture:

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion (2006) – $30 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (2009) – $41 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family (2011) – $25 million

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection (2012) – $25.3 million

As you can see, the openings of the last two pics have not been as big as the first two entries (though $25 million is still a strong performance, especially since they only cost around $20M to produce). I think there’s a decent chance that A Madea Christmas outperforms its two predecessors due to the timely holiday theme. While I have doubts it will reach the low 40s opening of Madea Goes To Jail, it stands a shot of having the second highest opening of the franchise so far. The Madea flicks generally do about 40 some percent of its business during opening weekend and I anticipate the front loaded trend will continue with this one.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my prediction on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Box Office Prediction

Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, based on the works of Tolkien, is the second feature in the Hobbit trilogy that began at this time last year. Starring Martin Freeman, Benedict Cumberbatch, Ian McKellen, Orlando Bloom, Evangeline Lilly, wizards, dragons, and others – Smaug opens this Friday.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey took in $84.6 million in its opening weekend in 2012 (it was released during the same December weekend as Smaug). That opening set the all-time record for the month of December and it’s a number its follow-up will attempt to improve upon.

So the main question is: can Smaug set the record for December? I’m a bit skeptical. For starters, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was not met with the universal acclaim that Jackson’s 2001-2003 Lord of the Rings trilogy received. Don’t get me wrong – Hobbit was a strong performer with that record setting debut and an eventual $303 million domestic gross. However, it is worth noting that all three Rings pics outperformed it.

One item in its favor: early reviews suggest that Smaug is better than its predecessor and that the pacing isn’t of the glacial quality that hindered Journey. This is a fairly tough prediction – it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Smaug opened larger than Journey. However, mixed reaction to Journey could lead to a slightly smaller opening. Anything below $75 million would be considered a bit of a letdown. I believe a debut in the late 70s/early 80s range is the most likely scenario.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug opening weekend prediction: $77.9 million

For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: December 6-8

As predicted, Disney’s animated Frozen overtook The Hunger Games: Catching Fire for the top spot at the box office this weekend, but both titles earned a bit less than my estimates.

Frozen took in $31.6 million in its second weekend for #1, below my $34.8M prediction. Disney’s feature has made $134 million since its Thanksgiving opening. An eventual gross in the $250M range seems likely.

In weekend #3, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire dropped to second with an estimated $27 million, under my $32M prediction. This massive sequel has earned $336M since its debut and still looks on pace to become 2013’s highest grossing picture.

Out of the Furnace, the crime thriller with Christian Bale, flopped with only $5.3 million for third place. I gave it a bit too much credit with a $9.6M prediction. Rounding out the top five: Thor: The Dark World in fourth with $4.7 million (just under my $5.2M estimate) and Delivery Man in fifth with $3.7 million (just over my $3.5M estimate).

Be sure to check the blog later when I’ll roll out my predictions for two very different sequels – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas.

2013: The Year of Matthew McConaughey

Seventeen years ago, Matthew McConaughey burst onto the film scene with a starring role in A Time To Kill, Joel Schumacher’s adaptation of John Grisham’s bestseller. His luck continued into the following year with Steven Spielberg’s Amistad and Robert Zemeckis’s Contact.

After that, things went off the rails a bit as McConaughey headlined one lackluster pic after another. The Newton Boys. EDtv. Two for the Money. And there were too many predictable rom coms (some of which did decent business at the box office): The Wedding Planner, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, Failure to Launch, Fool’s Good, and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.

The actor’s biggest flop came in 2005 with Sahara, a big budget action spectacle meant to turn McConaughey into the next action star. It failed grossing $68 million domestically against a reported $130 million budget.

For a while, it looked as if McConaughey’s film portfolio would consist of lame rom coms and not much else. In 2011, everything began to turn around with an acclaimed turn in the unexpected hit legal thriller The Lincoln Lawyer. In 2012, McConaughey was lauded for his supporting roles in the indie comedy Bernie and especially Magic Mike, which was a major summer hit.

The actor’s transformation into critical darling has come full circle in 2013 and that’s why he earns a spot in this blog series. First there was Mud, a $10 million budgeted coming of age drama that sits at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. It has earned $28 million domestically and furthered McConaughey’s status as a performer who suddenly knows how to pick quality material.

It has continued this fall with Dallas Buyer’s Club, where he stars as a drug addicted cowboy in the 1980s who contracts the AIDS virus. McConaughey lost 50 pounds for the part, critics are raving, and chances are that he’s on his way to his first Oscar nomination.

And this Christmas comes a supporting role in The Wolf of Wall Street, Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited film about Wall Street corruption. McConaughey is featured prominently in the pic’s brilliant trailer and this looks to be the actor’s third winner in a row for 2013.

McConaughey has been a terrific example of what happens when a quality actor stops slumming with projects he chooses and goes a different and more fascinating route. In 2013 and beyond, McConaughey is reaping the benefits of his decision. His next project up in 2014: starring in Christopher Nolan’s next feature Interstellar that is sure to be one of the next year’s most anticipated titles. For McConaughey lately, everything has indeed been alright alright.

Part five of my six part blog series focusing on performers with great 2013’s rolls on tomorrow with a comedic actress who broke out in 2011 and solidified her box office clout this year.

An Alternative Oscar History: 1990-Present

***Updated to the present

Whether or not you agree with the considerable power that the Oscars have in the world of film, there is no question that it does. When a movie wins Best Picture, it almost always adds millions to its box office gross. Actors who win their categories are granted instant access to better projects (have you noticed trailers love to tout “Oscar winner” so and so?). I have been tracking the awards closely for quite some time as you may have noticed from my 2013 Oscar predictions… round 4 coming soon!

So – this post focuses on an alternative Oscar history. If the pictures and directors and actors and actresses and supporting actors and supporting actresses in their respective categories hadn’t won that year, who would have? This speculation is based on what was happening during those years prediction wise and who I believe was the likely runner-up. In some cases, the winners truly were surprising over a more obvious candidate. Marisa Tomei was not expected to be awarded Supporting Actress in 1992 for My Cousin Vinny. Neither was Anna Paquin a year later for The Piano. Many were surprised when Crash won Best Picture in 2005.

Of course, there’s also times when the winner seems preordained and nobody really thinks anything or anyone else has a shot. Schindler’s List in 1993 comes to mind. Or Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor in Lincoln last year.

We’ll cover the years 1990-2012 and I hope you’ll find it interesting to see what might have been. For each year in the six major categories, I’ll list the “alternate” winner with the real recipient in parentheses.

1990

Picture: GoodFellas (Dances with Wolves)

Director: Martin Scorsese, GoodFellas (Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves)

Actor: Robert De Niro, Awakenings (Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune)

Actress: Anjelica Huston, The Grifters (Kathy Bates, Misery)

Supporting Actor: Bruce Davison, Longtime Companion (Joe Pesci, GoodFellas)

Supporting Actress: Annette Bening, The Grifters (Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost)

1991

Picture: Bugsy (The Silence of the Lambs)

Director: Barry Levinson, Bugsy (Jonathan Demme, The Silence of the Lambs)

Actor: Nick Nolte, The Prince of Tides (Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs)

Actress: Susan Sarandon, Thelma&Louise (Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs)

Supporting Actor: Harvey Keitel, Bugsy (Jack Palance, City Slickers)

Supporting Actress: Kate Nelligan, The Prince of Tides (Mercedes Ruehl, The Fisher King)

1992

Picture: Howards End (Unforgiven)

Director: James Ivory, Howards End (Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven)

Actor: Denzel Washington, Malcolm X (Al Pacino, Scent of a Woman)

Actress: Susan Sarandon, Lorenzo’s Oil (Emma Thompson, Howards End)

Supporting Actor: Jaye Davidson, The Crying Game (Gene Hackman, Unforgiven)

Supporting Actress: Judy Davis, Husbands and Wives (Maria Tomei, My Cousin Vinny)

1993

Picture: The Piano (Schindler’s List)

Director: Jane Campion, The Piano (Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List)

Actor: Anthony Hopkins, The Remains of the Day (Tom Hanks, Philadelphia)

Actress: Emma Thompson, The Remains of the Day (Holly Hunter, The Piano)

Supporting Actor: Ralph Fiennes, Schindler’s List (Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive)

Supporting Actress: Winona Ryder, The Age of Innocence (Anna Paquin, The Piano)

1994

Picture: Pulp Fiction (Forrest Gump)

Director: Quentin Tarantino, Pulp Fiction (Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump)

Actor: Paul Newman, Nobody’s Fool (Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump)

Actress: Jodie Foster, Nell (Jessica Lange, Blue Sky)

Supporting Actor: Samuel L. Jackson, Pulp Fiction (Martin Landau, Ed Wood)

Supporting Actress: Rosemary Harris, Tom&Viv (Dianne Wiest, Bullets Over Broadway)

1995

Picture: Sense and Sensibility (Braveheart)

Director: Michael Radford, Il Postino (Mel Gibson, Braveheart)

Actor: Sean Penn, Dead Man Walking (Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas)

Actress: Elisabeth Shue, Leaving Las Vegas (Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking)

Supporting Actor: Ed Harris, Apollo 13 (Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects)

Supporting Actress: Joan Allen, Nixon (Mira Sorvino, Mighty Aphrodite)

1996

Picture: Fargo (The English Patient)

Director: Joel Coen, Fargo (Anthony Minghella, The English Patient)

Actor: Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire (Geoffrey Rush, Shine)

Actress: Brenda Blethyn, Secrets and Lies (Frances McDormand, Fargo)

Supporting Actor: Edward Norton, Primal Fear (Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire)

Supporting Actress: Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces (Juliette Binoche, The English Patient)

1997

Picture: L.A. Confidential (Titanic)

Director: Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential (James Cameron, Titanic)

Actor: Robert Duvall, The Apostle (Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets)

Actress: Julie Christie, Afterglow (Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets)

Supporting Actor: Burt Reynolds, Boogie Nights (Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting)

Supporting Actress: Joan Cusack, In&Out (Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential)

1998

Picture: Saving Private Ryan (Shakespeare in Love)

Director: John Madden, Shakespeare in Love (Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan)

Actor: Ian McKellen, Gods and Monsters (Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful)

Actress: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth (Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love)

Supporting Actor: Ed Harris, The Truman Show (James Coburn, Affliction)

Supporting Actress: Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsters (Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love)

1999

Picture: The Insider (American Beauty)

Director: Michael Mann, The Insider (Sam Mendes, American Beauty)

Actor: Denzel Washington, The Hurricane (Kevin Spacey, American Beauty)

Actress: Annette Bening, American Beauty (Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry)

Supporting Actor: Tom Cruise, Magnolia (Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules)

Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry (Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted)

2000

Picture: Traffic (Gladiator)

Director: Ridley Scott, Gladiator (Steven Soderbergh, Traffic)

Actor: Tom Hanks, Cast Away (Russell Crowe, Gladiator)

Actress: Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream (Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich)

Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire (Benicio del Toro, Traffic)

Supporting Actress: Kate Hudson, Almost Famous (Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock)

2001

Picture: Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (A Beautiful Mind)

Director: Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind)

Actor: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind (Denzel Washington, Training Day)

Actress: Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom (Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball)

Supporting Actor: Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast (Jim Broadbent, Moulin Rouge)

Supporting Actress: Helen Mirren, Gosford Park (Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind)

2002

Picture: The Pianist (Chicago)

Director: Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York (Roman Polanski, The Pianist)

Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York (Adrien Brody, The Pianist)

Actress: Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (Nicole Kidman, The Hours)

Supporting Actor: Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can (Chris Cooper, Adaptation)

Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep, Adaptation (Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago)

2003

Picture: Mystic River (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King)

Director: Clint Eastwood, Mystic River (Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King)

Actor: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation (Sean Penn, Mystic River)

Actress: Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give (Charlize Theron, Monster)

Supporting Actor: Alec Baldwin, The Cooler (Tim Robbins, Mystic River)

Supporting Actress: Holly Hunter, Thirteen (Renee Zellwegger, Cold Mountain)

2004

Picture: The Aviator (Million Dollar Baby)

Director: Martin Scorsese, The Aviator (Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby)

Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator (Jamie Foxx, Ray)

Actress: Annette Bening, Being Julia (Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby)

Supporting Actor: Thomas Haden Church, Sideways (Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby)

Supporting Actress: Natalie Portman, Closer (Cate Blanchett, The Aviator)

2005

Picture: Brokeback Mountain (Crash)

Director: Paul Haggis, Crash (Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain)

Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line (Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote)

Actress: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica (Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line)

Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (George Clooney, Syriana)

Supporting Actress:  Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain (Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardner)

2006

Picture: Babel (The Departed)

Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel (Martin Scorsese, The Departed)

Actor: Peter O’Toole, Venus (Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland)

Actress: Kate Winslet, Little Children (Helen Mirren, The Queen)

Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls (Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine)

Supporting Actress: Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine (Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls)

2007

Picture: There Will Be Blood (No Country for Old Men)

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood (Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men)

Actor: George Clooney, Michael Clayton (Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood)

Actress: Julie Christie, Away from Her (Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose)

Supporting Actor: Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild (Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men)

Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There (Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton)

2008

Picture: The Reader (Slumdog Millionaire)

Director: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire)

Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (Sean Penn, Milk)

Actress: Meryl Streep, Doubt (Kate Winslet, The Reader)

Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, Milk (Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight)

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Doubt (Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona)

2009

Picture: Avatar (The Hurt Locker)

Director: James Cameron, Avatar (Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker)

Actor: George Clooney, Up in the Air (Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart)

Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side)

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds)

Supporting Actress: Maggie Gyllenhall, Crazy Heart (Mo’Nique, Precious)

2010

Picture: The Social Network (The King’s Speech)

Director: David Fincher, The Social Network (Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech)

Actor: James Franco, 127 Hours (Colin Firth, The King’s Speech)

Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (Natalie Portman, Black Swan)

Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (Christian Bale, The Fighter)

Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (Melissa Leo, The Fighter)

2011

Picture: The Descendants (The Artist)

Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo (Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist)

Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants (Jean Dujardin, The Artist)

Actress: Viola Davis, The Help (Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady)

Supporting Actor: Nick Nolte, Warrior (Christopher Plummer, Beginners)

Supporting Actress: Berenice Bejo, The Artist (Octavia Spencer, The Help)

2012

Picture: Life of Pi (Argo)

Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (Ang Lee, Life of Pi)

Actor: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables (Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln)

Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook)

Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained)

Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln (Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables)

2013

Picture: American Hustle (12 Years a Slave)

Director: David O. Russell, American Hustle (Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity)

Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club)

Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity (Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine)

Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave (Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club)

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle (Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave)

2014

Picture: Boyhood (Birdman)

Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman)

Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman (Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything)

Actress: Reese Witherspoon, Wild (Julianne Moore, Still Alice)

Supporting Actor: Edward Norton, Birdman (J.K. Simmons, Whiplash)

Supporting Actress: Emma Stone, Birdman (Patricia Arquette, Boyhood)

2015

Picture: The Revenant (Spotlight)

Director: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant)

Actor: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant)

Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (Brie Larson, Room)

Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone, Creed (Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies)

Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl)

2016

Picture: La La Land (Moonlight)

Director: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (Damien Chazelle, La La Land)

Actor: Denzel Washington, Fences (Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea)

Actress: Isabelle Huppert, Elle (Emma Stone, La La Land)

Supporting Actor: Dev Patel, Lion (Mahershala Ali, Moonlight)

Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris, Moonlight (Viola Davis, Fences)

2017

Picture: Three Billboards Outside, Ebbing Missouri (The Shape of Water)

Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water)

Actor: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour)

Actress: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (Allison Janney, I, Tonya)

2018

Picture: Roma (Green Book)

Director: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (Alfonso Cuaron, Roma)

Actor: Christian Bale, Vice (Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody)

Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife (Olivia Colman, The Favourite)

Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Mahershala Ali, Green Book)

Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk)

2019

Picture: 1917 (Parasite)

Director: Sam Mendes, 1917 (Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite)

Actor: Adam Driver, Marriage Story (Joaquin Phoenix, Joker)

Actress: Charlize Theron, Bombshell (Renee Zellweger, Judy)

Supporting Actor: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Supporting Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (Laura Dern, Marriage Story)

2020

Picture: The Father (Nomadland)

Director: David Fincher, Mank (Chloe Zhao, Nomadland)

Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Anthony Hopkins, The Father)

Actress: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Frances McDormand, Nomadland)

Supporting Actor: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah)

Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman, The Father (Yuh-jung Youn, Minari)

2021

Picture: The Power of the Dog (CODA)

Director: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog)

Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (Will Smith, King Richard)

Actress: Kristen Stewart, Spencer (Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (Troy Kotsur, CODA)

Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (Ariana DeBose, West Side Story)

2022

Picture: All Quiet on the Western Front (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Director: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Actor: Austin Butler, Elvis (Brendan Fraser, The Whale)

Actress: Cate Blanchett, Tár (Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Supporting Actor: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once)

2023

Picture: Poor Things (Oppenheimer)

Director: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer)

Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer)

Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Emma Stone, Poor Things)

Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling, Barbie (Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer)

Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (Da’Vine Joy Randoloph, The Holdovers)

2024

Picture: Conclave (Anora)

Director: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (Sean Baker, Anora)

Actor: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (Adrien Brody, The Brutalist)

Actress: Demi Moore, The Substance (Mikey Madison, Anora)

Supporting Actor: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain)

Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez)

2025

Picture: Sinners (One Battle After Another)

Director: Ryan Coogler, Sinners (Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another)

Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (Michael B. Jordan, Sinners)

Actress: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Jessie Buckley, Hamnet)

Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (Sean Penn, One Battle After Another)

Supporting Actress: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (Amy Madigan, Weapons)

And there you have it! My Alternative Oscar History since 1990!