Director Drew Goddard follows up his cult hit The Cabin in the Woods next weekend with the thriller Bad Times at the El Royale. Set at a novelty hotel in the late 1960s that occupies space in California and Nevada, the cast includes Jeff Bridges, Cynthia Erivo, Dakota Johnson, Jon Hamm, Nick Offerman, Cailee Spaeny, and Chris Hemsworth.
Early reviews for Royale have been mostly positive and it currently occupies a 77% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Box office estimates I’ve seen have a wide range from low double digits to high ones.
While this is a project that cinephiles are excited for, I question whether this can break out with a mainstream audience. For starters, there’s competition in the form of the second weekend of Venom and A Star Is Born and the debut of First Man. Trailers and TV spots are a little murky as to what this is actually about. While there’s plenty of famous faces in the cast, I’m not sure any of them will help much in filling seats (even Thor himself).
Taking all that into account, I believe El Royale will premiere on the low-end of expectations and may even struggle to reach double digits.
Bad Times at the El Royale opening weekend prediction: $8 million
R.L. Stine’s bestselling series of books gets its sequel next weekend as Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween scares its way into multiplexes. This is the follow-up to the 2015 original that managed a $23.6 million opening and $80 million overall gross. Ari Sandel takes over directorial duties with a cast including Wendi McLendon-Covey, Madison Iseman, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Ken Jeong, and Chris Parnell. Jack Black does reprise his role as Stine, though it’s unclear whether it’s more of a cameo this time around.
The release date close to the holiday it’s named after should help and there’s also little in the way of direct family competition as The House with a Clock in Its Walls (starring Black) is winding down. Venom will be in its second weekend of release, however.
I’ll predict this doesn’t quite manage to match the earnings of its predecessor and it may come in with about 25% less. That would give the second helping of Goosebumps a debut in the high teens.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween opening weekend prediction: $17.3 million
With awards buzz lifting its potential box office prospects, Damien Chazelle’s FirstMan debuts next weekend. Ryan Gosling headlines as Neil Armstrong in the story of the journey that led him to walk on the moon. Costars include Claire Foy (in a role garnering Oscar chatter), Jason Clarke, Kyle Chandler, Corey Stoll, Ciarán Hinds, Christopher Abbott, Patrick Fugit, and Lukas Haas.
Since premiering at the Venice Film Festival, FirstMan has received positive word of mouth with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 88%. Like Chazelle’s last two pictures (Whiplash and LaLaLand), a Best Picture nomination is expected. Older audiences should turn out (and Gosling fans), but it could be a film that plays well for weeks as opposed to a huge opening.
October has been kind to space flicks, most notably Gravity and TheMartian. They both launched to over $50 million out of the gate. FirstMan is not expected to achieve those numbers. Competition is serious with the second weekends of Venom and AStarIsBorn in particular.
I’ll say this manages a low to likely mid 20s start with solid grosses continuing beyond.
FirstMan opening weekend prediction: $23.5 million
For my Goosebumps 2, Haunted Halloween prediction, click here:
Size matters in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the decade old multi-billion franchise reached its most epic heights in Avengers: InfinityWar. The only superhero who’s had their own stand-alone pic not to appear in that gargantuan production was Ant-Man, the character brought to life by Paul Rudd in the summer of 2015. Sequel Ant–ManandtheWasp follows a traditional Avengers tale like the original did. To say it feels smaller in scope is an understatement. Part one often failed to strike a satisfying mix and surprisingly struggled to make Rudd’s title character a memorable one. Whereas Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man and Chris Pratt’s Star-Lord were instantly iconic heroes, it didn’t work that way in Ant–Man. That’sdespite its star’s well-known ability to mix comedy and drama and some nifty visuals that made the third act a treat.
Rarely do we find an MCU effort without parental issues involved and they’re here. Scott Lang/Ant-Man is nearing the end of a two-year house arrest bid based on the events from CaptainAmerica: CivilWar. His former love interest Hope/heroine Wasp (Evangeline Lilly) and science wiz dad Hank (Michael Douglas) are hiding out as well while conducting experiments to find their mom and wife Janet (Michelle Pfeiffer). She’s been stuck for three decades in the quantum realm that Ant-Man briefly visited in the original. His experience there leads Hope and Hank to believe she’s alive and the search is on. The technology that leads to that mystical place is sought by a low life criminal (Walton Goggins) and his crew. The FBI is curious about it, including the main agent (Randall Park in amusing turn) tasked with monitoring Scott. And then there’s Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen), a molecular challenged young lady who has her own reasons to gain powers. She teams up with a former colleague of Hank’s played by Laurence Fishburne.
If you’re thinking that’s a lot of characters to follow, I haven’t even mentioned Scott’s returning daughter (Abby Ryder Fortson), ex-wife (Judy Greer), and current husband (Bobby Cannavale). There’s also his business partners and occasional fellow crime fighters including Michael Pena and T.I. So while there’s plenty of action to follow, the MCU knows how to make it easy to follow. Compared to InfinityWar, the amount of subplots seems practically minuscule.
Wasp finds Rudd settling more comfortably in the role and more humorously. That’s an aspect that was oddly not around much in 2015. Finding Scott with Pfeiffer’s character in his head in one scene provides some genuine laughs. Like in the original, Mr. Douglas appears to be having a ball. He gets his own chance to save the day at one point while his counterparts are engaged in a visually impressive car chase in the streets of San Francisco. Lilly doesn’t just share title credit here. She does have more to do.
Ant–ManandtheWasp is an improvement over the first. That’s a trait shared by other MCU sequels, especially in the Captain America and Thor series. Peyton Reed returns as director and the whole production feels more confident. It also doesn’t have the burden of being an origin story… something we go through a lot with this constantly growing genre. Like many of its subjects, the importance of what happens in these two hours feels small compared to the grand scale of other stories in this universe. More so than in 2015, however, Ant-Man’s existence in it feels welcome.
The October box office gets underway this weekend with a strong likelihood that the month’s record will be broken as the comic book adaptation Venom and Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga Oscar hopeful and musical drama A Star Is Born open. You can peruse my individual detailed prediction posts on them here:
Both are expected to post impressive debuts. The current October record holder is from five years ago when Gravity made $55.7 million out of the gate. Venom is tracking to open between $60-$70 million. I believe it will match expectations and premiere on the lower end of that range, taking the all-time monthly debut with it.
While Venom could always fail to meet projections, I believe the real wild card here is A Star Is Born. Ever since it screened on the film festival circuit, praise and awards buzz has been loud for Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut and third remake of a tale that began in the 1930s. My initial estimate last week was $37.6 million and it has now risen to $48.6 million. It’s not out of the question that the projection could continue to rise during the week.
The two newcomers will easily take the top spots. As for holdovers, Smallfoot seems destined to experience a smaller drop than current champ Night School. I expect them to place 3rd and 4th, respectively, with The House with a Clock in Its Walls rounding out the top five.
And with that, my top five take on the big record-breaking weekend ahead:
1. Venom
Predicted Gross: $62.5 million
2. A Star Is Born
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
3. Smallfoot
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. Night School
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. The House with a Clock in Its Walls
Predicted Gross: $7 million
Box Office Results (September 28-30)
As expected, the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy NightSchool opened in first place with $27.2 million, a bit under my $31.6 million prediction. While not reaching the heights of some other Hart laughers, it’s still a solid start. I do expect a fairly large drop this weekend.
Warner Bros animated Smallfoot premiered in line with expectations at $23 million. My prediction? $23 million! I foresee a second weekend drop around 35-40 percent.
TheHousewithaClockinItsWalls dropped to third with $12.6 million, falling further than my second weekend estimate of $15.3 million. It’s made $44 million thus far.
ASimpleFavor was fourth with $6.5 million (I said $7 million) for a three-week tally of $43 million.
TheNun rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $5.5 million) for an overall gross of $109 million.
Halloween themed horror pic HellFest yielded unimpressive results in sixth place with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.6 million projection.
Finally, the Pure Flix version of LittleWomen was a total bust this weekend with just $705,000 for 16th place. I was more generous at $1.1 million.
A bit of an awards season surprise turned up today when Warner Bros announced that Clint Eastwood’s TheMule will be out on December 14. The film casts Eastwood in the true story of a World War II vet who becomes a courier for Mexican drug cartels at age 80.
TheMule marks Eastwood’s first turn in front of the camera since 2012’s TroublewiththeCurve. It’s the first time he’s directed himself since 2008’s hit GranTorino. While it’s been a little while since he’s acted, he has been churning out directorial efforts every year. It’s no accident that every time he does, Oscar chatter follows.
Over the past quarter century plus, Eastwood has seen a number of his pictures win and be nominated. In 1992, Unforgiven won Best Picture and Director. Twelve years later, MillionDollarBaby was a surprise late addition to the awards season calendar (as this is). It also won Picture and Director. Additionally, MysticRiver, LettersfromIwoJima, and AmericanSniper all received nods in the big race.
Just last year, The15:17toParis was assumed to be another possibility for inclusion for consideration. It ended up coming out in February of this year and was a commercial and critical failure. Paris is nowhere on the radar screen for Academy chatter this year.
Will TheMule be a different story? Another MillionDollarBaby that alters the Oscar race? While we’ll have to wait for buzz and reviews (there’s not even a trailer yet), some signs point to no.
There’s already rumors that Warner Bros is looking at this as more of a commercial venture than one they will focus on for awards campaigning. The studio already has a very serious contender on its docket with AStarIsBorn. Speaking of, Eastwood’s costars here include Bradley Cooper (director and star of Born) as well as Dianne Wiest, Michael Pena, Laurence Fishburne, Taissa Farmiga, and Alison Eastwood.
Even if Warner doesn’t see this as their largest Academy player, we will see if critics and audiences feel differently. One thing is for sure – we have another movie to keep an eye on in 2018.
As my weekly Oscar predictions roll along, I finally had a week not loaded with festival news and screenings. As you can see, placements in the major categories don’t have quite as much volatility this week.
That said, there was news. Of the few contenders that haven’t screened, it was announced that On the Basis of Sex will open this year’s AFI Fest in November and that Mary Queen of Scots will close it. Their inclusion in the fest bumps their stock up a bit in my rankings this time around. Of course, it won’t be until they screen that we know the real story.
In other developments related to my rankings:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) overtakes Viola Davis (Widows) for the five-spot in Best Actress.
Additionally in Best Actress, Glenn Close (The Wife) now holds the #1 predicted slot over Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born).
In Best Adapted Screenplay, the five predicted pictures remain the same. However, BlackKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk now hold the 1-2 spots over A Star Is Born and First Man.
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace) will apparently be campaigned for in lead Actor and not Supporting so that change has been reflected in my estimates.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Widows (PR: 12)
12. Boy Erased (PR: 11)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 18)
14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
16. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 17)
17. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
18. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 19)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 23)
20. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 21)
21. Leave No Trace (PR: 25)
22. Eighth Grade (PR: 24)
23. Beautiful Boy (PR: 20)
24. The Front Runner (PR: 16)
25. Stan and Ollie (PR: 22)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)
12. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 11)
13. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 14)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
15. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 15)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 2)
3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 11)
11. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
12. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 13)
13. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 12)
14. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
15. Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 5)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
11. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)
12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)
13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 9)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 6)
10. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (PR: 11)
11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
12. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 12)
13. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 14)
14. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (moved to Lead Actor)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)
8. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 11)
12. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: 10)
13. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 14)
14. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: Not Ranked)
I recently did an Oscar Watch post for Shoplifters, the Japanese drama that won the Palme d’Or at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. It stands an excellent shot at a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film at the Oscars.
So, too, does the Cannes winner for the Jury Prize and that is Capernaum. This Lebanese tearjerker from director Nadine Labaki is said to be an audience favorite. It recently played at the Toronto Film Festival and buzz continued to increase. The Jury Prize recipient in 2017 was Russia’s Loveless and it went on to score an Academy nod.
The category is beginning to look crowded with such titles as Roma, ColdWar, Shoplifters, and Sunset (among others) as contenders. If Capernaum makes it in, it would be only the second picture from Lebanon to do so. Yet it would also be two in a row as last year’s TheInsult was the first.
Bottom line: Capernaum stands a solid shot among the five movies to be recognized in the Foreign Language Film race.
Riding a wave of serious Oscar buzz, A Star Is Born is unveiled in theaters next weekend. The musical romance is the third remake of the 1937 film (the last was from 1976 with Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson). It marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper, who also stars as an alcoholic country singer who discovers and falls for a budding superstar (Lady Gaga). Costars include Sam Elliot, Dave Chappelle, Andrew Dice Clay, and Rafi Gavron.
After premiering at the Venice Film Festival weeks ago, Star immediately garnered awards attention. With great reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes), this is seen as a serious contender in a number of races including Best Picture. The performances of Cooper and Gaga have been met with raves. While she’s one of music’s biggest names, Gaga’s filmography has been limited to FX’s “American Horror Story” and Machete Kills. She seems destined to pick up an Oscar nod.
The likelihood is that Star will ride its awards chatter to solid grosses throughout the fall. How high it opens is more of a mystery. While it will almost certainly place second to Venom, the range is significant. I believe a gross of over $40 million is achievable.
A Star Is Born opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million
Sony Pictures hopes to kick off a franchise and set an October opening record next weekend when Venom debuts. The picture’s namesake is an anti-hero spawned from the Spider-Man comics. Moviegoers first saw him in the form of Topher Grace in Spider–Man3. That rendering of the character didn’t sit too well with comic book aficionados.
The studio hopes this version changes that. Ruben Fleischer, best known for Zombieland, serves behind the camera. Playing Venom and his alter ego Eddie Brock is Tom Hardy. Costars include Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed, Scott Haze, Reid Scott, Jenny Slate, and Woody Harrelson.
Sequels and spin-offs are hoped for and the marketing campaign has been pervasive. The reaction to trailers has been mostly positive, but word is that reviews won’t be published until the day before release. That’s not always a good sign. Similar buzz greeted SuicideSquad (among others) and it managed to meet expectations and gross $133 million in its first weekend. That stands as the largest August debut ever.
The correlation is that Venom could do the same in October, but estimates aren’t as high here. This is expected to gross between $60-$70 million. Even if it reached the low-end of that spectrum, this would top October record holder Gravity at $55 million. I’ll note that Halloween (out October 19) also stands a solid shot at exceeding that.
My feeling is this will meet projections, but on the lower end of the spectrum. How it performs in subsequent weekends will be dependent on buzz and that may be the biggest indicator on whether Sony gets its longed for cinematic universe.
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