Critics focused on the raunchy high school comedy Booksmart as one of the highlights coming from this year’s South by Southwest Festival. The film marks the directorial debut of actress Olivia Wilde. It stars Kaitlyn Dever and Beanie Feldstein, best known as Saoirse Ronan’s bestie in LadyBird. Costars include Billie Lourd, Jessica Williams, Will Forte, Lisa Kudrow, and Jason Sudeikis.
The film doesn’t open until Memorial Day weekend, but the loud buzz could certainly assist in making it a sleeper hit. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 100% currently. Could awards voters take notice? It’s doubtful. Feldstein is said to have a breakout role here. If there is any nomination chatter, it could center on the Original Screenplay from its four screenwriters – Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, and Katie Silverman. That said, if last year’s acclaimed EighthGrade couldn’t gain any traction, that doesn’t bode well here.
Bottom line: Booksmart is one to watch out for when it comes to box office surprises. Academy nods would surprise a lot more. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (03/19/19): The upgrade has happened from $48.8 million to $56.8 million
Next weekend we will find out if lightning strikes again for director Jordan Peele with the release of Us. The horror pic is Peele’s eagerly awaited sophomore effort and follow-up to his 2017 debut GetOut. That film rode a cultural wave of excitement and critical raves that resulted in a Best Picture nomination and an Oscar for Peele for his original screenplay.
Perhaps not since M. Night Shyamalan’s Unbreakable (his feature after TheSixthSense) have we seen a movie that can sold mostly on “from the director of…”. Us centers on a family being terrorized by a brood that appears to be different versions of themselves. The cast includes Lupita Nyong’o, Winston Duke, Elisabeth Moss, and Tim Heidecker.
Any fears of a sophomore slump were eliminated this past weekend when Us screened at South by Southwest. Reviews are strong with 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. GetOut exceeded opening weekend projections two years ago when it made $33 million for its start and legged out considerably to $176 million.
Us doesn’t have the benefit of unknown expectations. Peele’s name and some seriously effective trailers have prognosticators thinking this will exceed the first weekend of GetOut. Whether it experiences the smallish declines from weekend to weekend is a better question as Us should be more front-loaded with its earnings.
I’ll say mid to high 40s is where this lands with $50 million certainly being a possibility.
CaptainMarvel looks to make another giant pot of box office gold in its sophomore frame while a quartet of newcomers could struggle to get noticed. There’s the animated WonderPark, youthful romantic drama FiveFeetApart, and alien invasion flick CaptiveState debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I’m not expecting much from the newbies. I didn’t do an individual post for Mexican comedy sequel NoManchesFrida2, which hits the smallest number of screens at around 450. It will likely post the highest per screen average of the premieres and I’ll forecast a $3.4 million debut for sixth place. That’s better than my take on CaptiveState. It opens in almost five times as many venues, but I’m projecting a measly $2.8 million.
Park and Feet could find themselves in a close battle for second. I’m giving the latter a slight edge. It’s also feasible that HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld could stay in the runner-up spot behind the latest MCU juggernaut.
Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:
1. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $71.3 million
2. FiveFeetApart
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
3. WonderPark
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
4. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (March15–17)
I’ll give myself a little pat on the back with my CaptainMarvel prediction as it made $153.4 million and I was just a million off at $154.4 million. That’s a sterling start for Brie Larson’s heroine and I look for this to fall around 53% in its second frame.
HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld fell to second with $14.6 million. I was a touch higher at $16.6 million. Total is $119 million.
TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral was third with $12.4 million (I said $11 million) for $46 million overall in two weeks.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart made $3.8 million for fourth place. My $3.9 million forecast was right there. It’s nearly at the century mark with $97 million.
Alita: BattleAngel rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $4 million) for $78 million to date.
Originally slated to open last summer, the sci-fi alien invasion thriller CaptiveState touches down in theaters next weekend. Rupert Wyatt, best known for 2011’s RiseofthePlanetoftheApes, directs. John Goodman (no stranger to extraterrestrial beings as evidenced by 10CloverfieldLane) leads a cast that includes Ashton Sanders, Machine Gun Kelly, Alan Ruck, Kiki Layne, and Vera Farmiga.
The Focus Features release seems to be flying far under the radar. Many pics in this sub genre are high-profile releases with massive budgets. This comes with a price tag of only about $25 million. That was probably the catering receipt for WaroftheWorlds.
That said, I don’t see this recouping its minimal cost during the stateside domestic run. I’ll say this only reaches mid single digits (if it’s lucky) before it lifts off quickly to On Demand status. I’ll say it doesn’t even get there.
CaptiveState opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
Brady Corbet’s VoxLux portrays a star who is born out of tragedy and she manages to keep milking it for a seemingly infinite time. Natalie Portman is that star and her work here is certainly memorable. Unlike her Oscar-winning turn in 2010’s BlackSwan (which also explored the highs and lows of notoriety), this movie never quite earns being blessed by her committed performance. It drew me in for a while before getting lost in its own pretentiousness and, eventually, a feeling of meaninglessness. Maybe that’s the point Corbet is going for with his script as he ruminates on the vapid nature of pop celebrity. However, when the message is that the main character isn’t ultimately worth paying attention to, it’s tricky to get invested.
We meet Celeste as a 14-year-old in 1999, as played by Raffey Cassidy. She and sister Ellie survive a school shooting, leaving Celeste with a gunshot wound to the spinal area. Her recovery inspires her to write a ballad that strikes a chord with the nation. When it’s time to cut a full album, it’s in the aftermath of 9/11 when her lightweight dance pop recordings (courtesy of Sia) are the kind of throwaway ditties that fit the airwaves. These horrific events turn Celeste into a superstar and ultimately a diva.
Forty minutes in, the story flashes forward to 2017. Now 31 years old and now in the diminutive but fierce form of Portman, Celeste is prepping a comeback tour while attempting to rid herself of certain baggage. There’s an at fault car accident from a few years back that caused injury. And there’s the breaking news of the day – a terrorist attack in Central Europe where the assailants dressed as characters from one of her old videos.
Celeste deals with all this as she’s an absentee mom to her own teen, also played by Cassidy. Her girl is raised primarily by Ellie (Stacy Martin) and that sister relationship is strained to its limit. Jude Law is the manager who puts up with the frequent tantrums and rock star behavior while indulging in it himself.
For a while, VoxLux is unique enough with its subject matter to inspire hope. That’s for about an hour when it seems to be generating its thesis on stardom and tragedy. I will say I dug Willem Dafoe’s intermittent ironic narration. In the second half, it’s mostly about watching Celeste’s out of control behavior. In the realm of musical tales, this runs out of fresh notes to hit. What helps is that Portman is terrific. She just never quite elevates this above being an occasional fascinating misfire.
Youthful romance is center stage in the drama FiveFeetApart this Friday. Justin Baldoni directs Haley Lu Richardson (best known for Split) as a cystic fibrosis patient who catches the eye of Cole Sprouse (currently on TV’s “Riverdale”) with the same condition. Costars include Moises Arias, Parminder Nagra, and Claire Forlani.
The film is based on a novel by Rachael Lippincott. It came out in November of last year and the rights to its adaptation were sold well before its release. CBS Films is hoping this appeals to fans of TheFaultinOurStars. I believe the opening grosses of them will be many millions apart.
I’ll project this manages to reach double digits, though not by much.
FiveFeetApart opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million
It’s been a bumpy ride for Nickelodeon’s animated feature WonderPark, but it finally hits screens this Friday. Originally titled AmusementPark and scheduled for release last summer, the pic comes with a reported $100 million price tag. The film’s director Dylan Brown was fired by the studio in early 2018 due to various sexual harassment claims. Newcomer Brianna Denski provides the lead voiceover role along with familiar faces such as Jennifer Garner, Matthew Broderick, Kenan Thompson, Ken Jeong, Mila Kunis, and John Oliver.
The box office grosses for Park, considering its hefty price tag, might not be amusing at all. It doesn’t help that CaptainMarvel will be in its sophomore frame as it also appeals to family crowds. I believe this will make low double digits for its start and that would amount to a costly flop for Paramount.
WonderPark opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
The South by Southwest festival is in full swing this weekend and the most eagerly awaited film premiere has occurred. That would be Us, Jordan Peele’s follow-up to 2017’s GetOut. The horror thriller is out domestically on March 22.
Early reviews are quite encouraging as it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Could this follow in the footsteps of Peele’s debut effort? As you may recall, GetOut premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2017 to red-hot buzz. It would end up grossing $176 million stateside and garnering four Oscar nods, including Best Picture. Peele won the gold statue for Original Screenplay.
Initial consensus for Us suggests it’s scarier than GetOut, though some reviews don’t quite put it at the level of Peele’s first pic. I’ll say that if Us can resonate with audiences in a manner similar to Out, it could find itself in the Oscar conversation (especially Original Screenplay). And it might be worth keeping an eye on Lupita Nyong’o in lead actress as an outside possibility.
After premiering last autumn at the Toronto Film Festival, GloriaBell hits theaters in limited fashion on Friday. The film is a remake of Sebastian Lelio’s 2013 Chilean comedic drama that was met with acclaim. Those strong reviews have greeted the American version (100% on Rotten Tomatoes), which again features Lelio behind the camera. It’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2017’s AFantasticWoman, which won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Feature.
Julianne Moore plays the title role and critics have lavished praise for her work. Costars include John Turturro, Michael Cera, Brad Garrett, Holland Taylor, Sean Astin, Jeanne Tripplehorn, and Rita Wilson.
A24 acquired Gloria after its screening up north. Even with the March release, it’s likely that the studio will make a significant push for Moore to receive her sixth Oscar nod. Her fifth nomination was the lucky one in 2014 when took the statue in Best Actress for StillAlice. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the sole focus is on Moore being recognized, similar to Glenn Close in 2018 for TheWife.
Bottom line: it’s early, but Moore could be in the mix yet again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The MCU appears poised to have another blockbuster on their hands this weekend with the release of CaptainMarvel. Reviews were embargoed for a little longer than usual for the multi billion dollar franchise, but they’re out and critical reaction has been fairly solid. The Brie Larson led pic stands at 84% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s just a percentage point behind last year’s Avengers: InfinityWar – while nowhere near the 97% achieved by BlackPanther.
It was, of course, Panther that became the first superhero flick to nab a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. That won’t happen here. The storyline as far as this MCU title’s awards chances is the same as most of them and that’s Visual Effects.
Nine MCU entries have nabbed nods in Visual Effects. Interestingly, none of them have won. Competition this year will be stiff. There’s another franchise effort (Avengers: Endgame) that likely has a better shot. That’s in addition to expected players such as the next StarWars, TheLionKing, and Alita: BattleAngel, to name just some.
Bottom line: CaptainMarvel will bring audiences in. Awards chatter is more of a reach. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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