In a day that saw numerous Oscar precursors unveil their nominees (get ready for DGA and BAFTA posts later this evening), the Producers Guild of America named their ten nominated pictures of 2019. The winner will be named January 18.
Before we get to the analysis, let’s take a gander at the nominees:
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
In short, there are no true surprises here. What does this mean for these film’s chances at a Best Picture nod? It means a lot based on odds. Over the past five years, there’s never been less than seven PGA pics that didn’t score a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. There’s an asterisk in 2017 when 11 movies got PGA attention.
This means you can count on 70% of the movies above to hear their names called on Monday. And I’ll give you those seven right now: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite. I suspect there will be at least eight or nine for 2019.
In my latest round of Oscar estimates Monday (before final predictions this weekend), I also have Ford v Ferrari and Little Women landing spots. It’s worth noting that the PGA nod for Women might have been needed as it has missed some key earlier precursors. As for Knives Out, it’s certainly got a shot but I’m a bit skeptical it makes the final cut (pun intended).
The PGA picks in 2016 and 2018 encapsulated all of the eventual Oscar nominees. For 2014, 2015, and 2017, here is the full list of Best Picture nominees from the Academy that weren’t named by PGA: Selma, Room, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread. In other words… small list. So it could be said that today is bad news from an oddsmakers perspective for the following hopefuls: Bombshell, The Farewell, Pain and Glory, Rocketman, The Two Popes, and Uncut Gems.
Three out of the previous five PGA winners went on to win Best Picture, including 2017’s The Shape of Water and last year’s Green Book. That victor will not be announced for 11 days, but the PGA has granted us plenty to speculate about in the meantime.
There are years when the Golden Globes don’t seem to have much of an impact on my Oscar predictions. That could still hold true at the end of the day, but last night’s ceremony did so and that especially applies to the Best Actor derby and my numeric rankings in general with other top races. Let us count the ways…
The surprising wins for 1917 as Best Drama and Sam Mendes as its director is a real story. The timing could not be more perfect as the World War I action drama opens wide this weekend. In Picture, it rises from 5th to 4th. For Mendes, he goes from 4th to 3rd and that’s at the expense of Martin Scorsese.
Joaquin Phoenix hits the #1 slot in the ultra competitive Best Actor competition over Adam Driver, who’s been first for many weeks. Perhaps more significantly, Taron Egerton’s victory over Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes places in my predicted five for the first time (he goes from 10th to 5th!). I’ve also put Antonio Banderas back in and that means Robert De Niro and Jonathan Pryce are on the outside looking in.
In Original Screenplay, Quentin Tarantino vaults to #1 over Noah Baumbach.
And an important programming note… this is the last time you will see my weekly predictions for 2019 in this manner. With nominations out a week from today, I will have a FINAL predictions post up this weekend (likely Friday or perhaps Saturday). As of this moment, here’s how I have it all shaking out!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Parasite (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Farewell (PR: 12)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
13. Knives Out (PR: 14)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 15)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 9)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 9)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
10. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell (PR: 7)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 8)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
10. Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Dolemite Is My Name
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Corpus Christi (PR: 6)
5. Atlantics (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beanpole (PR: 7)
7. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
8. The Painted Bird (PR: 5)
9. Honeyland (PR: 8)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Funan (PR: 9)
7. Klaus (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
9. Abominable (PR: 7)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. For Sama (PR: 3)
3. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Midnight Family (PR: 9)
8. Maiden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
10. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
7. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
8. Parasite (PR: 5)
9. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marriage Story (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Judy (PR: 6)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Apollo 11
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 7)
7. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 10)
9. Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 7)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
8. “Letter to My Godfather” from The Black Godfather (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Speechless” from Aladdin
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 7)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Rocketman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
7. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 8)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Corpus Christi, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
Fresh off its surprising Best Drama win last night at the Golden Globes, World War I epic 1917 appears to have the benefit of great timing as it opens wide Friday. We have three other newcomers in the mix with the Michael B. Jordan/Jamie Foxx legal drama Just Mercy, Tiffany Haddish/Rose Byrne comedy Like a Boss, and Kristen Stewart led sci-fi horror pic Underwater. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
1917 has performed impressively in two weeks of limited release and the awards cred should only help. My projection last week put in the mid 20s and I’ve revised up to low 30s. That would easily put it in first, ending the three-week reign of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
Both Mercy and Boss could see grosses in the low double digits to low teens. I do feel both have the potential to over perform. That said, Mercy has lacked the Oscar buzz that 1917 has and Haddish’s previous comedic starring vehicle Nobody’s Fool did so-so with $14 million for its start. As for Underwater, despite a considerable reported budget of $80 million, this looks like a massive flop. My measly $5.4 million estimate leaves it well outside the top five and marks the second costly flop for Stewart in a row after Charlie’s Angels.
There might be shades of January 2018 happening with two particular holdovers. That’s when Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle experienced much smaller declines than Star Wars: The Last Jedi and the two films switched positions. I expect that to occur now with The Next Level staying in second and Skywalker falling to third (though I have it about as close as can be).
And with that, my top 6 outlook:
1. 1917
Predicted Gross: $31.8 million
2. Jumanji: The Next Level
Predicted Gross: $17 million
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
4. Like a Boss
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
5. Little Women
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
6. Just Mercy
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
Box Office Results (January 3-5)
2020 started off as 2019 closed with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in first. The ninth official episode of the franchise fell over 50% to $34.5 million, right on pace with my $34.4 million prediction. The total stands at $451 million.
Jumanji: The Next Level remained second with a considerably smaller dip at $26.2 million, a bit ahead of my $23.8 million projection. It’s up to $235 million and has another week of non threatening competition until Dolittle arrives.
Little Women had a terrific sophomore hold in third with $13.6 million (I said $12.1 million). The two week tally is $60 million as it seems destined to hit the century mark.
Frozen II was fourth with $11.8 million, in range with my $11.6 million forecast. The Disney behemoth is now at $450 million.
Finally, the year’s first wide release was The Grudge. The horror reboot was a dud with critics and audiences. The latter gave it an unprecedented F Cinemascore grade. Opening in fifth and making $11.4 million, it did manage to top my $10.2 million take. And considering it only cost a reported $10 million to produce, don’t feel too bad for Sony. Based on word of mouth, I expect it to fall off a cliff next weekend.
True to form, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association did what they do and provided some genuine surprises at tonight’s Golden Globes Awards. Some things were predictable and not just the edgy jokes from host Ricky Gervais.
The first cinematic award bestowed was an obvious one with Parasite taking Foreign Language Film. Yet the smart money was on its maker Bong Joon-Ho to win Director and after that, one would think Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino were next in line. That’s not how it played out as Sam Mendes took the statue for 1917, which opens nationwide this weekend. Any thought that Mendes doesn’t make the final Oscar five has pretty much fallen by the wayside.
And then at the end of the evening, it was 1917 taking Best Drama over favorites The Irishman and Joker. This potentially changes the narrative of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, and Parasite being the trio of pictures with a shot to win.
It was a good night for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as Tarantino’s ninth feature won all three categories I predicted it would: Musical/Comedy, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor for Brad Pitt. The latter victory solidifies the narrative for a glide path for Pitt in the upcoming ceremonies.
The same could be said for several acting races. For Supporting Actress, the Golden Globes perhaps gave Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) her best shot at upsetting Laura Dern for Marriage Story. However, Dern emerged victorious and maintained her front runner status.
In the divided lead competitions, Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) and Renee Zellweger’s (Judy) podium trips were pretty much expected. In Actor, it was the first result of what’s expected to be an Oscar showdown between Phoenix and Adam Driver (Marriage Story). Zellweger’s Academy chances continue to look strong.
In the Musical/Comedy races, Taron Egerton’s Rocketman win over Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) and Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) appears significant. I haven’t included him in my five nominees in the super competitive Actor race at the Oscars. Expect that to change tomorrow.
Awkwafina’s win in The Farewell was anticipated as she was the only nominee with a chance at an Oscar nod. In other words, I’m not sure how much this changes her chances in Best Actress (I currently have her on the outside looking in at sixth).
There was another major upset early on with Missing Link beating out Toy Story 4 for Animated Film. Pretty much no one saw this one coming. I still don’t think it wins the Oscar with Pixar still the favorite.
A somewhat less surprising victory was Joker for Score. Still with all the 1917 love, one would figure the World War I epic might have taken that as well.
Finally, Best Song (as predicted) gave Elton John and longtime writer Bernie Taupin their first trip together to an awards stage… how is that possible?? “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” could certainly give “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II competition at the Oscars.
It must be said that it was a bad night for The Irishman with zero wins. It should still get a boatload of Oscar nods, but its chances at winning several took a blow this evening.
So how’d I do with my projections? 9 for 14. I’ll take it considering the upsets! My Oscar predictions will be updated on the blog tomorrow and as you’ve read, expect at least one change due to tonight’s happenings.
The National Society of Film Critics (consisting of film reviewers in New York and Los Angeles) bestowed their honors on the day before the Golden Globes. They clearly loved Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite as it won Best Film, Director, and Screenplay. This comes one year after the NSFC surprised everyone by picking Chloe Zhao’s The Rider for their top prize. It was never considered a real contender at the Oscars. That is decidedly not the case with Parasite. Worth noting is that only two winners here over the decade (Spotlight, Moonlight) ended up taking Best Picture from the Academy.
In the acting races, there was only one surprise with Mary Kay Place winning Best Actress for Diane. I currently have her ranked #10 on my Academy chart. However, the last 7 winners here went on to nab Oscar nods. She may creep up a bit when I do my Oscar estimates on Monday, but it’s highly doubtful she’ll place in the top 5.
As for the ultra competitive Best Actor derby, Antonio Banderas took it for Pain and Glory. Along with anyone not named Adam Driver or Joaquin Phoenix, he’s among the eight thespians vying for Academy spots 3-5.
The supporting races went to two front runners. Brad Pitt got Supporting Actor for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood while Laura Dern won in Supporting Actress for both Marriage Story and Little Women. She’s widely considered a threat to win the Oscar in the former.
Bottom line: it was a very good day for Parasite while Mary Kay Place’s victory could boost her visibility a bit.
With the exception of two or three categories, the only thing that seems certain for Sunday night’s Golden Globe Awards is that host Ricky Gervais will say something to upset people. With questions about who and what will emerge victorious this awards season, there is plenty of drama to go with the music and comedy this weekend.
While I spend a lot of time prognosticating the Oscars on this blog, I only did one post estimating what the Hollywood Foreign Press gave us for consideration. And now it’s time to predict the winners.
First, a quick Globes 101. This ceremony splits the lead acting races and pictures into Drama and Musical or Comedy. They do not split screenplay into Adapted or Original like the Academy does. Furthermore, unlike the Oscars, foreign pictures are nominated only in that race and are not eligible for the two top Picture categories.
This creates a fascinating dynamic Sunday evening as Oscar’s likely top three potential Best Picture winners (The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite) are all in different races. Bottom line: the Globes could be more helpful in pointing out what direction Academy voters may go in the acting derbies. We shall see…
Here goes as I break down each competition with analysis and a winner pick:
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Nominees: 1917, The Irishman, Joker, Marriage Story, The Two Popes
Analysis: Of the three motion picture races, this is the one I feel least confident about. In 2018, the HFPA went with a giant blockbuster and a surprise with Bohemian Rhapsody. If they go this route again, you can expect Joker to be the victor. After all, 1917 hasn’t even opened wide yet (it could sneak a win too) and the other three are Netflix releases. This ultimately serves as the first major test for The Irishman as it moves through awards season. I’ll give it the edge, but not my much.
PREDICTED WINNER – THE IRISHMAN
Alternate – Joker
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit, Knives Out, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Rocketman
Analysis: Some simple math here as Hollywood is the only nominee that also scored a nod for its director. That bodes well and this is the clear frontrunner.
PREDICTED WINNER – ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Alternate – Rocketman
Best Director
The Nominees: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Todd Phillips (Joker), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: This could certainly come down to Scorsese vs. Tarantino. Yet Sunday could be the beginning of a huge run for Joon-Ho picking up directing honors. I think that’s what happens.
PREDICTED WINNER – BONG JOON-HO
Alternate – Quentin Tarantino
Best Actor – Drama
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Analysis: The Driver vs. Phoenix battle begins with the Globes. Joker did extremely well with Globes voters and this race probably represents its best chance for a victory. Driver is quite viable, but I’m going Phoenix.
PREDICTED WINNER – JOAQUIN PHOENIX
Alternate – Adam Driver
Best Actress – Drama
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: In what could absolutely be the Oscar final five, Zellweger’s work as the iconic Judy Garland seems like the type of performance HFPA will eat up. Johansson and Theron are threats, but this could be the first of a couple more Zellweger podium walks.
PREDICTED WINNER – RENEE ZELLWEGER
Alternate – Scarlett Johansson
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Daniel Craig (Knives Out), Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit), Leonardo Dicaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Analysis: For Craig and Davis, it’s an honor to be nominated as this is a three person race. Both Egerton and DiCaprio should pick up significant votes and I’m awfully tempted to go Leo. However, Murphy’s acclaimed performance and his legendary status (especially coming so soon after his SNL return) could be irresistible to the HFPA.
PREDICTED WINNER – EDDIE MURPHY
Alternate – Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Ana de Armas (Knives Out), Awkwafina (The Farewell), Cate Blanchett (Where’d You Go Bernadette), Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart), Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Analysis: Awkwafina is really the only player here with an Oscar shot so she’s a strong frontrunner. It’s pretty much that simple. I’d say de Armas is the only upset possibility and it’s rather slim.
PREDICTED WINNER – AWKWAFINA
Alternate – Ana de Armas
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: What a list of legends we have here as Pacino and Pesci may split votes and that paves the way for Pitt. Expect this to be a familiar refrain.
PREDICTED WINNER – BRAD PITT
Alternate – Joe Pesci
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Annette Bening (The Report), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: The smart money is on Lopez, who’s had a remarkable comeback in 2019. I may regret this, but I’m going with a gut feeling that Dern takes it and that may represent the only win for Marriage Story of its six nods.
PREDICTED WINNER – LAURA DERN
Alternate – Jennifer Lopez
Best Screenplay
The Nominees: The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Two Popes
Analysis: The only entry here I don’t see with a fair shot of winning is Popes. This is a coin flip situation. Despite what I just said about Dern, Marriage could absolutely win. The Parasite love could extend here and same with Irishman. Tough one, but I’ll give Tarantino the edge (especially since I’m betting against him in Director).
PREDICTED WINNER – ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Alternate – Marriage Story
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: The Farewell, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Analysis: All five pics have their ardent admirers, but here’s the deal. If Parasite doesn’t win, it would constitute the biggest upset of the evening. Not happening.
PREDICTED WINNER – PARASITE
Alternate – umm… let’s say Pain and Glory
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees: Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, The Lion King, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
Analysis: Disney has 60% of the nominees here, including that rather shocking Lion King inclusion. I wouldn’t totally count out Dragon, but Pixar should get the glory.
PREDICTED WINNER – TOY STORY 4
Alternate – How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Orignal Score
The Nominees: 1917, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Motherless Brooklyn
Analysis: This one isn’t easy as just Brooklyn seems unlikely to get it. I’ll give Thomas Newman (1917) a small advantage over cousin Randy (Marriage Story), Alexandre Desplat (Women), and Hildur Guonadottir (Joker).
PREDICTED WINNER – 1917
Alternate – Little Women
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats, “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman, “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II, “Spirit” from The Lion King, “Stand Up” from Harriet
Analysis: Never count out Disney with the ballad from Frozen II, but the general consensus is it’s no “Let It Go”. There’s some serious heavy hitters here with Beyonce, Taylor Swift, and Elton John in the mix. HFPA might want to see Elton onstage.
PREDICTED WINNER – “(I’M GONNA) LOVE ME AGAIN” FROM ROCKETMAN
Alternate – “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
So this means I’m predicting the Globes spread it around with the following winner counts:
3 Wins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2 Wins
Parasite
1 Win
1917, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, The Irishman, Joker, Judy, Marriage Story, Rocketman, Toy Story 4
I’ll have a recap of the show up Sunday night with my results!
Kristen Stewart headlines the sci-fi aquatic horror flick Underwater next weekend and the actress could be in for her second big budget flop in as many months. Directed by William Eubank, the supporting cast includes Vincent Cassel, Jessica Henwick, John Gallagher, Jr., Mamoudou Athie, and T.J. Miller.
Shot in 2017, the Fox release sports a reported $80 million price tag to go with its January dumping ground release date. It seems to be generating very little buzz at all. Stewart starred in the Charlie’s Angels reboot that absolutely tanked in November. Angels started off on over 3400 screens and grossed an atrocious $8.6 million for its opening frame.
My feeling is that this won’t even hit those numbers. Underwater is slated to hit around 3000 theaters and it’s hard to imagine that wide of a release not making at least $5 million. This may test that theory, but I’ll put it just over that.
Underwater opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
Tiffany Haddish and Rose Byrne headline the business themed comedy Like a Boss next weekend as Paramount Pictures hopes many girls will make a trip to view it. Originally slated for release last summer, Boss is directed by Miguel Arteta with a supporting cast including Jennifer Coolidge, Billy Porter, and Salma Hayek.
It’s been over two years since Haddish broke through in a major way with Girls Trip and her lucky streak continued with Night School with Kevin Hart. However, things have slowed down a bit as of late with Nobody’s Fool (which grossed $14 million for its start). Then there was last year’s crime drama flop The Kitchen with Byrne’s Spy costar Melissa McCarthy.
The lack of much comedic competition should help a bit, but buzz seems to fairly muted here. My guess is this makes a bit under what Fool accomplished and struggles to hit teens.
Like a Boss opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
After opening in limited release over the holidays, true life legal drama Just Mercy expands nationwide next weekend. From director Destin Daniel Cretton, the pic stars Michael B. Jordan as attorney seeking to free wrongfully imprisoned Jamie Foxx. The supporting cast includes Brie Larson, Rob Morgan, Tim Blake Nelson, and Rafe Spall.
Mercy premiered at the Toronto Film Festival back in September to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it never managed to achieve any significant awards chatter with the exception of a SAG nod in Supporting Actor for Foxx. He might still get an Oscar nomination (even though that’s iffy), but that should be the extent of any Academy attention. More buzz for top tier nominations could have assisted with the box office.
In the Christmas weekend, this got a per theater average under $30,000 on four screens. That’s less than other rollouts for prestige projects. I will estimate that Mercy barely doesn’t reach double digits as it hits over 2000 venues.
Just Mercy opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Blogger’s Note (01/05): The film’s victory for Best Drama at the Golden Globes is pushing my estimate up… from $26.8 million to $31.8 million
1917 blasts onto screens next weekend and hopes to generate its awards buzz into a rousing first frame at multiplexes. The World War I epic comes from Sam Mendes, Oscar winning director of American Beauty who’s been busy with the Bond franchise lately with Skyfall and Spectre. Cast members include George MacKay, Dean-Charles Chapman, Mark Strong, Andrew Scott, Richard Madden, Colin Firth, and Benedict Cumberbatch.
Critics have been on its side as 1917 currently sports a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score. The film is expected to nab several Oscar nods (including possibly Picture and Director and tech nods) on the Monday following its wide release. In the limited rollout over the holidays, it held a sturdy per theater average of over $50,000.
War movies have done well in January over the past few years. The high water mark is American Sniper, which made nearly $90 million out of the gate five years ago. This isn’t anticipated to be anywhere near that, but there are other decent comps to consider. In 2013, Zero Dark Thirty took in $24 million in its expansion.
This is right in the range where I see 1917 landing in the mid 20s (SEE BLOGGER’S NOTE ABOVE).
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