Over the past two years, we’ve become accustomed to movies experiencing significant delays. The King’s Daughter takes the crown. Not to be confused with the recently out The King’s Man, this was actually filmed before the first Kingsman was released. The principal photography was done during the early part of the fifth year of the Obama administration.
You didn’t read that incorrectly. The adventure fantasy from director Sean McNamara was completed in the spring of 2014 and has set on the shelf since. Pierce Brosnan plays King Louis XIV and the plot involves him stealing a mermaid’s life force to become immortal (you did read that correctly). Costars include Kara Scodelario, Benjamin Walker, William Hurt, Rachel Griffiths, Fan Bingbing, and Julie Andrews (who narrates).
The fact that Gravitas Ventures is even putting this out theatrically is surprising as the distributor usually goes the PVOD route. It’s reportedly not much of a release with an output of around 1000 screens. I certainly wouldn’t anticipate this making a splash. I’ll say it gets to a million bucks and that might be generous.
The King’s Daughter opening weekend prediction: $1 million
**Blogger’s Update (01/18): Already souring on this and revising estimate from $3.2 million to $2.4 million
A historical romance set during the California gold rush, Redeeming Love will attempt to cash in with a female crowd on January 21st. It’s directed by D.J. Caruso, trying on a different genre after helming thrillers and action fare such as Disturbia and xXx: Return of Xander Cage. The cast is headlined by Abigail Cowen and Tom Lewis with a supporting cast including Logan Marshall-Green, Famke Janssen, Nina Dobrev, and Eric Dane.
Love is based on a 1991 novel by Francine Rivers (her and the director share screenplay credit). Pinnacle Peak Pictures is the distributor, known for their faith-based efforts like God’s Not Dead and Do You Believe? The production team is responsible for the sleeper hit I Can Only Imagine.
Slated to premiere on around 1800 screens, the combo of appeal to women and the possibility of Christian audiences turning out could cause this to over perform. We’ve seen it before (Pinnacle’s Unplanned from 2019 made over $6 million in its first weekend). I do question how widely this has been promoted and the relatively small screen count could be a hindrance. Redeeming might manage a gross of over $5 million, but I’ll say $3-4 million is more likely.
Redeeming Love opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million
For my The King’s Daughter prediction, click here:
My first Oscar predictions following the Golden Globes bestowing their winners and the SAG Award nods comes with not a whole lot of changes in who and what I’m actually predicting in the major categories.
However, there is a significant alteration in placement for Best Actress as Kristen Stewart’s shocking omission in Spencer from the SAG five drops her from 1st (where she’s been perched for months) to 4th. Rising to #1 is Globes victor Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. This competition is beginning to resemble the unpredictable Actress lineup from 2020 and it should be fun to witness.
In Best Picture, I’m (perhaps stubbornly) sticking to the same ten. Yet there’s no doubt that Ricardos and House of Gucci could be on the rise and either or both could crack the lineup soon.
The only significant change is in Supporting Actor where I’m finally putting Jared Leto for Gucci in the mix. He’s in over Jamie Dornan (Belfast).
I’m also adding a new feature which shows how many eventual nominees from 2020 were correctly picked at this same juncture. I’ll keep that up until I make my final picks shortly before the February 8th announcement. This will be listed as 2020 Count.
You can read all the movement below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 14) (+3)
12. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Drive My Car (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: No Way Home
2020 Count: 7 of 8 eventual nominees
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 2 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Judi Dench, Belfast
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-2)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mass (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. My Sunny Maad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ascension (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 6) (E)
7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Julia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
2020 Count: 1 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cruella (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
And that equates to these movies hitting these numbers for their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
4 Nominations
House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, Spencer
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Worst Person in the World
When the core group of Avengers assembled in their climactic battle for that classic shot from the 2012 film, it held power because we’d come to know them in previous MCU entries. By the time we got to 2019 as seemingly half of Hollywood was ready to take on Thanos in Avengers: Endgame, the same emotions were present. The mere fact that we were witnessing many members of Marvel’s extensive roster ready for action via high quality predecessors was impressive.
That’s a testament to what Kevin Feige and team had pulled off. For all the nitpicking about the franchise, it’s easy to forget the monumental achievement in bringing these heroes to life in 20 plus pictures and getting us back to care about them. That’s not an easy assignment and they pulled it off.
This brings us to Eternals, the 26th entry in the series. And it often feels like we are meant to feel the same sentiments that I’ve described above. There’s a problem with that. Chloe Zhao’s immersion into the MCU is tasked with introducing us to a brand new team of heroes in its 156 minutes. Most of them, quite frankly, aren’t very compelling. Comic book lovers may be familiar, but the masses aren’t. When Iron Man got the gang together nearly a decade ago, we knew the gang. Eternals, which loves it landscapes and sunsets silhouetting its protagonists, strains to properly introduce them. For a movie that feels long, it’s still short on character development and getting us to care about this team in ways we previously did. I admired plenty about this latest adventure, but it still stands as one of the MCU’s overall weakest experiences.
A prologue set in 5000 B.C. establishes the players. The Eternals are a group of immortals tasked with saving planets from Deviants, a lot of monstrous CGI creations. Their leader is Ajak (Salma Hayek), who takes her orders from the almighty Arishem. Each Eternal has their own set of powers. Sersi (Gemma Chan) can transform matter. Her love interest Ikaris (Richard Madden) can shoot freakin lasers from his eyeballs (think Cyclops). Phastos (Brian Tyree Henry) is the science nerd capable of advancing technology centuries ahead of time. And… we’re gonna be here all day if I keep this up, but a couple more. Sprite (Lia McHugh) can create illusions, but can’t hide the fact that she’ll look like a 12-year-old girl for eternity. Thena (Angelina Jolie) is capable of creating weapons from thin air. Yet she’s a weapon herself because she has a condition that causes her to turn against her counterparts and try to kill them.
The Eternals spend centuries on Earth taking on the Deviants and appear to achieve their mission in 1521. The band breaks up and they’re free to roam free on our Earthly soil, which Nomadland director Zhao frames in loving travelogue mode. Importantly, Ajak orders them not to interfere with the many conflicts that will transpire over the coming centuries. That means the Eternals are not involved when Thanos wipes out half the population in Avengers: Infinity War. They’re not showing up for house calls with Doctor Strange or assisting Hulk smash anything.
In present day, the Deviants resurface and they must assemble (!) again. Some have taken on unexpected careers. Kingo (Kumail Nanjiani) is a Bollywood leading man with a trusty assistant (Harish Patel). He’s been a superstar for decades with the public believing his dad, granddad, and so on were different people. The real function for Nanjiani is to provide some comic relief in a story that needs it.. The actor and the superb Patel are up to the assignment. They might be the two characters I’d be excited to see return in future MCU tales.
On the flip side, the failed romance between Sersi and Ikaris is a yawner. And familiar faces like Hayek and Jolie aren’t given enough screen time to register. Barry Keoghan, always a compelling actor to watch, is Druig. He can manipulate minds and his superpower runs counter to his orders. Druig has the potential for a fascinating character arc yet, once again, the packed nature of the screenplay prevents it.
The look of Eternals is undoubtedly different than the MCU sheen we’re accustomed to. It has more of a real location feel as opposed to video game extravaganza. Some of the action sequences are well constructed. Others fall into the confused CGI jumble that’s hampered even some of the finest franchise flicks.
Here’s the bottom line – Eternals is by no means bad (even the middling stories in this series are quite watchable). It feels unnecessary because it never fully succeeds at making us understand why we need to be invested. Ajak’s hideaway in the present day is in South Dakota. Nothing that happens here made me think any Eternal will be carved into the Mt. Rushmore of Marvel’s cinematic universe.
Hand it to the SAG Awards voting branch for providing more surprises than the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did with the Golden Globes! For their ceremony airing in February, nominations were announced this morning and there were shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. I went 20 for 30 overall with my picks.
This is not the headline I was expecting to write, but I’d say House of Gucci was the big winner of the day. It showed up in every feasible category where it could while other heavyweight pics (Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story) saw snubs.
Let’s break it down race by race with how I did and what it means for the Oscar landscape (and there are implications, folks).
A * indicates that I correctly forecasted the nominee.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Belfast *
CODA *
Don’t Look Up *
House of Gucci
King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary – Of the three films most likely to take Best Picture from the Academy, only Belfast showed up here. That means my predictions of The Power of the Dog and West Side Story didn’t make the cut. My second alternate pick King Richard is not unexpected, but SAG clearly has a thing for Gucci and that proved itself today. There was some chatter that West Side sending out late screeners for voters could be a hindrance and its sole nod this morning could lend some credence to that. As for Power, that’s more of a head scratcher as it landed three individual acting mentions (I don’t think this hurts its BP chances at Oscar). I’m nowhere near finalizing winner forecasts, but you’d have to think Belfast is a possibility (though its omissions which I’ll discuss in a minute make me question that)…
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye *
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter *
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci *
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos *
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary – OK 4 for 5 is fine and all, but there is a major surprise with this lineup and that’s Kristen Stewart not making the list for Spencer. No one saw this coming. I’ve had Stewart listed in my #1 slot at the Oscars for months. So how many times has the Academy victor for lead actress not been nominated for SAG in the 27 years of its existence? Once and that’s with a huge caveat. In 2008, Kate Winslet took Oscar gold for The Reader. That year, SAG mentioned her for Revolutionary Road instead and the studio for The Reader submitted her in supporting at SAG.
Obviously this calls into question whether Stewart has any chance now of winning the Academy Award and it’s a safe bet that she’ll drop from her #1 perch in my rankings when I update them tomorrow. Hudson’s inclusion here is a little surprising, but this is more about who didn’t make it. Kidman took the Golden Globe. If she takes SAG, look out.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog *
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! *
Will Smith, King Richard *
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth *
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary – Being the Ricardos got its two leads in (though not Ensemble or Supporting Actor for J.K. Simmons). That’s my miss in this derby as I had Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) in. As far as Oscar is concerned – Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington are looking safe (with Smith as the frontrunner). The fifth slot is up for grabs.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast *
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story *
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog *
Ruth Negga, Passing
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary – Negga factoring in ups her Oscar viability (she got a Globes nod too). Blanchett is a surprise. I had Rita Moreno (West Side Story) in, but her omission is not unexpected. She hasn’t managed a Globe or SAG and I’d say her Academy chances are fading fast. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) missing here is pretty significant. DeBose probably stands the best chance, but the fact that this is the only nod for West Side makes me believe an upset is totally possible.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur, CODA *
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog *
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary – The Supporting Actor race has been unpredictable and did that ever show this morning! Yep, I went 2 for 5. Neither Belfast hopeful (Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds) factored in nor did Mike Faist for West Side Story. I’ll note that Affleck, Kotsur, and Smit-McPhee are the three that managed Globe and SAG attention. While I didn’t have Cooper for SAG, his inclusion here makes me more confident picking him for an Oscar nod (where I’ve had him for weeks). Leto’s chances get a boost after missing the Globes. And at the end of the day – Smit-McPhee could be headed towards a sweep after taking the Globe.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Nominees:
Black Widow *
Dune *
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die *
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings *
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary – Pretty simple as Matrix gets in over Spider-Man: No Way Home. This is likely a Dune win or maybe No Time to Die.
And there you have it! I won’t spend too much time expressing my amazement over the Stewart snub (I’m sure you’ll find plenty of that on Twitter). I’ll have my winner picks up on the blog shortly before the SAG Awards air on February 27th and I’ll have updated Oscar estimates up tomorrow!
**Blogger’s Note (01/13): On the eve of its premiere, I am upping the 4-day tally for Scream from $29.4 million to $36.4M
**Blogger’s Update (01/11) – GKIDS has announced that Belle will open Friday on approximately 1300 screens. I believe that’s enough that it could post a $3-4 million showing and place fourth. Update is reflected below.
Familiar faces from the quarter century old Scream team are back with some fresh ones as Scream, the fourth sequel to the 1996 original hits multiplexes over the long MLK weekend. The scare fest follow-up looks to dethrone Spider-Man from his four week reign atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My high 20s estimate for Scream should get it to #1. While Omicron concerns could hinder it, Spidey has certainly proved that familiar products can thrive. Horror pics have also proven to be sturdy at the box office in recent times. If anything, I could envision Scream managing to top $30 million but I’ll hedge a bit.
The four-day weekend could mean smallish dips for holdovers as Spider-Man should place second in the low to possibly 20s with Sing 2, The 355, and The King’s Man filling out the high five.
Keep in mind that these projections are for Friday-Monday and this is how I see it:
1. Scream
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
3. Sing 2
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
4. Belle
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. The 355
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (January 7-9)
The web slinger had no trouble staying in first as Spider-Man: No Way Home added $32.6 million to its coffers, a bit ahead of my $29.5 million prediction. The MCU phenomenon is up to $668 million and that places it 6th on the all-time domestic chart.
Sing 2 was once again the runner-up with $11.5 million, in line with my take of $11.9 million. The animated sequel crossed the century mark and stands at $108 million.
Spy thriller The 355 was 2022’s first wide release and, as expected, opened in third with $4.6 million. While nothing to brag about, it debuted in line with expectations and a smidge more than my $3.8 million forecast.
The King’s Man was fourth with $3.2 million compared to my $2.6 million projection. Total is $25 million.
American Underdog rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.1 million) for $18 million overall.
This evening’s Golden Globes ceremony was certainly like no other in recent history. Due to controversies that have fallen upon the Hollywood Foreign Press Association in the past couple of years, the show was not broadcast, not streaming, and no celebrities attended. Reveals of the winners were available via Twitter.
The Globes could still provide a window for what might occur when Oscar nods are out next month. If so, there could be good things coming to the big winners of the evening – West Side Story and The Power of the Dog. They are likely the two that stand the greatest chance to take Best Picture (along with Belfast) and each had key wins tonight. And while Belfast only landed one victory, it was a rather key one.
So how’d I do with my predictions? 9 for 14. That’s about how I thought I’d perform to be honest as the HFPA is a little unpredictable.
Let’s start with what I got right:
West Side Story won Best Musical/Comedy and Ariana DeBose took Supporting Actress.
Kodi-Smit McPhee is Best Supporting Actor for The Power of the Dog. For DeBose and McPhee, it could be the start of healthy runs throughout the season.
Encanto is Best Animated Feature and Drive My Car took Foreign Film. I have both in my #1 positions for the Oscars.
Dune received Best Score and “No Time to Die” won Original Song. At the Academy Awards, I expect Billie vs. Beyonce (for “Be Alive” from King Richard). In round 1, Billie is victorious.
Will Smith’s turn as King Richard is your Best Actor (Drama) while Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick… Boom! is Best Actor (Musical/Comedy). Both were widely expected and the two are anticipated to easily make the cut at the Oscars.
Where I went wrong:
My one true upset pick was Emma Stone in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) for Cruella. I went with the upset because I couldn’t choose between Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) or Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). Zegler took the prize.
I did have Pizza being delivered a Screenplay win, but that went to Belfast. I thought that early award might forecast its win for Best Drama (I picked it) but…
The Power of the Dog won and that’s a pretty significant boost for its Oscar chances. Its maker Jane Campion also was named Best Director and I went with Steven Spielberg for West Side Story.
And perhaps the only true surprise of the evening was Best Actress (Drama) though I did make a point to say that any could win. I predicted Kristen Stewart in Spencer, but Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos was awarded. This points to a real competition at the other shows to come.
Quick take – Dog and Story had solid nights. Smith, DeBose, and Smit-McPhee may have solidified their frontrunner statuses. And Best Actress might be wide open.
The 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards airs February 27th and the nominations will be unveiled this Wednesday (01/12). It’s often a more reliable precursor to the acting nominations for the Oscars. Therefore it’s time to make my picks on who and what will grab the nods later this week.
As a reminder, the big prize here is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. That often favors films with a larger cast though a potent mix with four or more actors can make the cut. Similar to Golden Globe estimates and my forthcoming final Oscar picks, I’ll give you my five contenders along with a runner-up and second alternate with a bit of commentary.
Here we go!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: King Richard
Commentary – The three Best Picture frontrunners for the Academy (Belfast, Power, West Side) all seem like pretty safe bets here. If anything is vulnerable, it might be the quartet from Power considering it has a smaller troupe of performers. There’s also some chatter that West Side could be vulnerable because it sent out late screeners for voters, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. For the other two spots, I’m favoring Don’t Look Up‘s large and sprawling cast should make it in. I’ll go with the CODA clan as well though I could easily see Licorice Pizza, King Richard or The Harder They Fall making the cut.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – The last four years has seen a 4/5 match with SAG and Oscar when it comes to leading ladies. My current Academy lineup is the same as here (though that’s certainly subject to change). Quite honestly, I tried to make room for Cruz but couldn’t land on who to take out. The most vulnerable could be Chastain, Gaga, or Kidman. I also wouldn’t completely discount Jennifer Hudson for Respect and would have her ranked above Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) for SAG.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Commentary – Just as I am with the Oscars – feeling confident about Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington. It’s that fifth slot that’s tricky. I’ll give Dinklage the ever so slight nod over Leo (who’s currently my fifth with the Academy). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Cage sneak in.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Ann Dowd, Mass
Commentary – I’m banking on the Guild not passing up a chance to put the legendary Moreno in with her costar DeBose. Speaking of Passing, you’ll notice Ruth Negga (my fifth Oscar player at the moment) isn’t here but she could certainly surface.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – Bit of a guessing game as Supporting Actor is a head scratcher for 2021 pics. Going with both Belfast boys and the love continuing for West Side Story with Faist. As for the winner, that could be between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee (I also wouldn’t discount his costar Jesse Plemons getting in). If Leto misses here (and with the Globes omission), his Oscar chances probably disappear.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Runner-Up: The Matrix Resurrections
Second Alternate: The Harder They Fall
This means I’m projecting 4 nominations apiece for Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. I’ll have a recap up Wednesday with my reaction and how well (or not) I did!
P.S. – Golden Globe reactions coming up this evening…
My first 2022 predictions for the 2021 Oscar season comes on the eve of the Golden Globes and four days before SAG announces their nominees. By my next update, we will have those useful bits of information to consider.
If you missed my predictions for the Globe winners, you can find them here:
I’ll have my forecast for the SAG nominees up on the blog tomorrow so stay tuned! In the meantime, there are numerous changes to point out:
I keep going back and forth on whether momentum for Japan’s Drive My Car is still revving up or perhaps stalling. I’ve taken it out of my ten predicted BP contenders and put The Tragedy of Macbeth back in.
While I continue to struggle with all 5 Best Actress hopefuls representing non BP nominees, I’m back to that lineup. That means Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) returns with Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) falling out.
For many weeks, I’ve held to same Best Actor five. That changes today with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) joining the quintet and Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) dropping.
In Supporting Actor, both Belfast boys are in so Jamie Dornan is back in the mix. That takes out Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog).
Drive My Car is also out for Adapted Screenplay with Dune in.
The Beyonce vs. Billie battle in Original Song switches places. Beyonce’s track “Be Alive” from King Richard has been my #1 for months, but I’ve now vaulted Billie’s “No Time to Die” to top position.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for a Globes recap and SAG prognostications.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (E)
14. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Sunny Maad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lamb
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Rescue (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ascension (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. President (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Last Night in Soho
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Green Knight
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spencer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cruella (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Free Guy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. No Time to Die (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
And that boils down to these pictures garnering these numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Drive My Car, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
I’m used to saying the Golden Globes will air Sunday evening, but that’s not the case in 2022. The ceremony honoring the best of 2021 will come to us in an as yet undetermined format. This is due to various controversies brought to light recently about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and NBC’s decision not to broadcast the show.
However, the show will go on (possibly streaming on your computer) and the Globes still serve as a barometer for what Oscar voters could be thinking in coming weeks. That said, the HFPA is certainly capable of providing surprises. Just last year, Andra Day’s victory in Best Actress (Drama) for The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Jodie Foster as Supporting Actress for The Mauritanian were legitimate upsets.
As a reminder, the Globes split their picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy though not with the supporting derbies or screenplay. I will be making my picks along with runner-up selections while also providing numbers showing the correlation of Globe winners to Oscar recipients in each respective category for the last ten years.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 4 out of last 10 years
Commentary: The HFPA competition for the drama prize is the first major showdown between Oscar frontrunners Belfast and The Power of the Dog. With the international flavor and feel good vibes of the former, I’m picking Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama to come out ahead. If there’s a shocker in store, it could be CODA (which seems to picking up more steam on a weekly basis).
I will admit that picking Belfast to win Drama and take no other awards (as you’ll see below) feels strange. There is recent precedent, however, with 2016’s Moonlight.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner: West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner ratio: 2 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: I wouldn’t count out Licorice Pizza but its miss in Best Director could be telling. West Side Story should be right up HFPA’s alley and its the only feature where its maker made the director cut.
Best Director
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is a tough one. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nod for The Lost Daughter was unexpected and she’s the only contender that I feel stands no chance of winning. Branagh could certainly ride a wave of Belfast love. Villeneuve could be honored for the technical mastery of Dune. And Campion is the hopeful picking up the bulk of critics prizes. Yet I’ll go with the HFPA honoring the legendary Spielberg.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is the first test to see whether Stewart really is the frontrunner that could sweep through the season. I’m skeptical and I honestly believe any of the performers could take this (I struggled to pick the runner-up as it could be any of them). I wouldn’t put money on it, but I’ll say Stewart manages to nab the crown.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: As you can see, this is a rather reliable predictor of where the Academy could go. For 2021’s features, the ceremonies should boil down to Smith v. Cumberbatch. I don’t think HFPA will pass up a chance to honor one of cinema’s most durable draws for the last 25 years in one of his most acclaimed performances.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)
Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Cruella
Runner-Up: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 3 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: There was an upset last year when Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) emerged over the favored Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. The West Side love extending to Zegler is probably the smartest pick to make. Alana Haim’s work in Pizza could deliver her a victory and she probably should be listed as the runner-up. Yet if there’s any upset, I could see Stone surprising and there’s almost always one during the Globes. Perhaps against my better judgment, I’m going with it.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)
Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
Predicted Winner: Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 1 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Dinklage is a threat though I’ll go with DiCaprio as the runner-up since he’s arguably the biggest star in Hollywood. That said, Garfield (he’s likely #3 in the Oscar contest at the moment) is the most likely winner.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actress)
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Jodie Foster’s win for 2020 came out of nowhere so who really knows? I’ll go with a West Side pick and DeBose. Other than Negga, I could foresee any of these candidates making (theoretical) podium trips.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actor)
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another tricky one in a race where the Globes and Academy typically match. Assuming the Belfast boys split and Affleck isn’t a factor, this comes down to Smit-McPhee vs. Kotsur. A win for either could propel them to a glorious season ahead. I’m really tempted to go with Kotsur, but I’ll say this marks the best opportunity for HFPA to bestow an honor for Dog. This is a coin flip.
Best Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up: Belfast
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 5 out of the last 10 years (counting both Original and Adapted Screenplays at the Oscars)
Commentary: Your guess is as good as mine here. I’m going with a bit of an upset with Pizza, but the smart money is probably on Belfast or Dog. I also wouldn’t count out Aaron Sorkin for Ricardos (he took this category last year for The Trial of the Chicago 7). And Adam McKay could be called up for Don’t Look Up which (despite its mixed reviews) is drawing plenty of ink.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner: Encanto
Runner-Up: Flee
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last years
Commentary: The Globes are capable of unexpected picks here (2019’s Missing Link for example). Don’t be surprised if Flee from Iran gets this, but I’ll go with Disney’s likeliest hopeful of its trio of nominees and that’s Encanto.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
A Hero
Parallel Mothers
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Watch out for Mothers to pull off an upset, but this is Drive My Car‘s race to lose. The Japanese drama has established itself as the frontrunner in international competitions at all ceremonies.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another race that Mothers could unexpectedly take, I also wouldn’t discount Dispatch or Dog. This should be Dune‘s best opportunity to take a prize though.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Here I Am” from Respect
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Be Alive” from King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This should be the battle of Billie (Eilish) for “Die” vs. Beyonce (it’s just Beyonce) for “Alive” and that should be the dynamic for the Oscars. The HFPA has honored the last two Bond themes for Skyfall and Spectre. I’ll give it a very slight edge.
And there you have it! The Golden Globes will air, err happen, Sunday. I’ll have reaction up on the blog shortly thereafter.
