Sony is hoping that horror fans and perhaps a young female audience RSVP for The Invitation when it arrives in theaters August 26th. Taking influence from Bram Stoker’s Dracula novel, Jessica M. Thompson directs. Nathalie Emmanuel, best known for her appearances in the latest Fast and Furious installments, headlines. Costars include Thomas Doherty, Stephanie Corneliussen, Alana Boden, and Hugh Skinner.
Horror flicks have been a bright spot in the COVID era and that includes 2022 (Scream and The Black Phone for example). This one faces challenges. It’s not based on existing IP other than the loose vampire connection. Most importantly, the late August release date is generally seen as a dumping ground for studios.
The Invitation may be fortunate to reach double digits (though that could be good enough for a #1 opening). I’ll say it falls a bit under that mark.
The Invitation opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million
For my Three Thousand Years of Longing prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (08/17): Two days before its premiere, I’m revising Beast down from $14.3M to $11.3M. That puts it in second place instead of first with Dragon Ball rising to first.
Survival thriller Beast with Idris Elba and the animated Japanese fantasy sequel Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will compete for the #1 spot this weekend. It could be a close competition and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I’m projecting that both will manage a low teens opening and I’m giving Beast an ever so slight edge. Either could over perform, but both could also top out in low double digits. As long as neither falls significantly short of expectations, they should place 1-2.
Bullet Train, after two weeks in first, should fall to 3rd or 4th depending on how well Top Gun: Maverick holds. It’s a safe bet that the latter will hold quite solidly so it could be a stiff competition for third with DC League of Super-Pets rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $7 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (August 12-14)
Brad Pitt and the Bullet Train was #1 again with $13.4 million, just shy of my $14.1 million take. The two-week total is $55 million as it is tracking to come in under $100 million domestically when all is said and done.
In a photo finish for second, Top Gun: Maverick achieved another remarkable feat. Rising from sixth to the runner-up position, Tom Cruise’s biggest hit ever (and then some) earned $7 million in its 12th outing. I projected a tad lower at $6.2 million. Sitting at $673 million and #7 all-time stateside, it will eventually get to the #5 slot and overtake Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War in the coming days.
DC League of Super-Pets was third and it also made $7 million, in line with my $7.2 million prediction. The animated tale has made $58 million in its three weeks of release.
It was a razor thin margin for 4th and 5th with Thor: Love and Thunder barely surpassing Nope. The former made $5.3 million (I was right there at $5.4 million) as the MCU sequel has rung up $325 million.
Nope was fifth and also did $5.3 million, outpacing my $4.2 million guesstimate. Jordan Peele’s effort has made $107 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was sixth with $5 million. I went with $5.2 million and it’s amassed $343 million.
#7 was Where the Crawdads Sing with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) with a $72 million overall haul.
Bodies Bodies Bodies couldn’t really capitalize on its impressive NY/LA limited rollout last weekend. Expanding wide, it took in $3.2 million for eighth place. I was a bit more optimistic at $4.4 million. While its per screen average was 2nd in the top 10 behind only Train, look for it to fade quickly.
Elvis was ninth with $2.5 million (I said $2.6 million) as the biopic has shook up $141 million.
The climbing thriller Fall debuted in 10th with $2.5 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did come in with better earnings than most prognoses. This includes my own at $1.2 million.
Easter Sunday fell outside of the top ten in 11th with $2.4 million in its sophomore frame (I was on target at $2.5 million). The meager total is $9 million.
Last and least, Diane Keaton’s comedy Mack & Rita was a massive flop in 13th position with $1 million. I gave it too much leeway at $2.3 million. As if that start wasn’t bad enough, it earned a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade.
From director Alex Pritz (making his directorial debut after serving as cinematographer on The First Wave) comes the documentary The Territory. Focused on an indigenous leader attempting to protect a region of the Brazilian Amazon, the Nat Geo effort first screened at Sundance to general acclaim.
With a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score, it’s scheduled to be released August 19th. Darren Aronfosky serves as one of the producers. I’ve discussed many times on this blog about how Best Documentary Feature is always a tricky category to project. For example, last year’s lauded The Rescue (also from Nat Geo) was surprisingly ignored by the Academy.
The reviews are certainly there for The Territory to mark its space among the contenders. It remains to be seen whether it’s on the minds of voters a few months from now.
Over three and a half years ago, Dragon Ball Super: Broly significantly exceeded expectations stateside. As summer closes out, the follow-up Super Hero hopes to do the same. The martial arts fantasy from Toei Animation is actually the 21st feature in the long running Japanese franchise. Tetsuro Kodama directs.
The pic already did brisk business in its native country when it opened in June. Over the long MLK frame in 2019, Broly got a kickstart to the weekend with a Wednesday bow. In its first two days of release, it captured $10.4 million with a six-day overall haul of over $22 million.
Hero is not slated for a hump day start nor is it premiering over a holiday. That makes comparisons to Broly a little tricky. There’s no doubt that this genre is extremely front loaded and I certainly see it hitting double digits. It could find itself in a battle for #1 with the Idris Elba headlined survival thriller Beast. Both could be competing for some of the same eyeballs. I’ll project $12-14 million is where this lands and that puts it barely behind where I have Beast at.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
For my first Oscar analysis in the 8 major categories for the month of August, the ten BP contenders remain the same. However, Everything Everywhere All at Once moves to #2 with Babylon slipping a spot to third. I truly do believe there’s a path for Once to take the top prize next year depending on how the next five months of releases play out.
At the end of July, I vaulted Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans to #1 in BP. Today I’m putting the filmmaker in first with Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle now in second.
While my lead actress and actor picks remain unaltered, there is movement in both supporting derbies. In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Griselda Sicillani (Bardo) are in my projected quintet with Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) falling out. In Supporting Actor, I’m switching Empire of Light costars with Michael Ward making the cut over Colin Firth.
Finally, I’ve taken Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives out of contention in all categories where I previously had it listed as a possibility. If Amazon Prime mounts a campaign later this year, it could find itself back in the mix. I wouldn’t count on it despite its solid reviews.
Expect another update in the next week or two! You can peruse all the movement below:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (E)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Bones and All (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Till (PR: 19) (E)
20. Broker (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Woman King (PR: 24) (E)
25. Amsterdam (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Thirteen Lives
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
Blogger’s Update (08/17): Two days before its premiere, I’m revising Beast down from $14.3M to $11.3M
Idris Elba faces single fatherhood and a murderous lion in the survival thriller Beast when it opens August 19th. It comes from Balthasar Kormakur, who recently directed nature related efforts Everest and Adrift. Costars include Sharlto Copley, Iyana Halley, and Leah Sava Jeffries. The selling point for the Universal Pictures pic is, of course, the big cat hunting Elba and family in the South African setting.
Beast should find itself in position for a #1 opening with Bullet Train in its third weekend. That said, the Japanese animated adventure Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero could certainly give it a run for its money.
Estimates have this as low as $10 million or in the $15 million range. Approaching or slightly exceeding the latter seems more likely as long as buzz is decent (early word-of-mouth is encouraging). Higher teens even seems doable, but I’m not ready to go into that mode as of yet.
Beast opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
For my Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero prediction, click here:
Bad Luhrmann’s Elvis succeeds much in the same way that Bohemian Rhapsody did. Which is to say that it doesn’t always succeed, but it frequently captures the musical spirit of its subject impressively. Or maybe the magnetism of Elvis Presley or Freddie Mercury and lively performances from the actors portraying them is simply overpowering.
From Moulin Rouge! to The Great Gatsby and more, Luhrmann’s stylized productions have always flashed a bigger than life vibe. Mr. Presley is a sensible icon for him to cover. Austin Butler plays The King. Before he inhabits the role (and he does), we see the poor Mississippi youth who catches musical inspiration in two ways. One is the sacred in the gospel church. The other is more profane in the sweat drenched blues sessions nearby.
The melding of each eventually makes him the best selling solo artist of all time. Narrating that four decade long journey is Colonel Tom Parker (Tom Hanks), his corrupt and crafty manager. Their union is the rocky constant in a triumphant and turbulent career that includes the popularization of rock and roll to the masses. The two and a half hour plus biopic is told in a sometimes Forrest Gump style journey through history that somewhat clumsily brings the MLK and RFK Jr. assassinations into the fold. Of course, it also includes the known greatest hits and misses. Iconic wiggles. The close knit and cut short relationship with his mother (Helen Thomson). A hoped for James Dean style film career stalled. The marriage to younger Priscilla (Olivia DeJonge). Pills and guns.
Much of this is familiar territory for this genre. In fact, one could say Elvis’s trajectory is perfectly suited for it. A star is born. And the star’s light goes out too soon. Unlike the aforementioned Gump, Hanks is not among the strongest aspects. Buried in makeup that doesn’t make you forget it’s Hanks buried in makeup, his acting borders on cartoonish parody. If their relationship is meant to be the emotional core, the screenplay falters in that regard.
Where Elvis builds its momentum is in Butler’s dynamism. To offer that he’s utterly convincing even in the live hip shaking portions says it all. Those sequences are rhapsodic and a wise use of Luhrmann’s overwhelming brand of storytelling.
There’s a trio of pics debuting or expanding this weekend, but they could all find themselves outside of the top five. A24’s slasher comedy Bodies Bodies Bodies hopes to build on its impressive NY/LA limited release while the Diane Keaton comedy Mack & Rita and survival thriller Fall premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Both Bodies and Fall are expected to hit around 1200 screens. That’s low and limits their range. Let’s start with Fall as its lack of promotion could find it failing to even make $1 million. I’m projecting $1.2 million and that obviously leaves it well outside the high five (and ten for that matter).
Bodies is a bit tougher to figure out. In six venues in our nation’s two largest cities, it took in a robust per screen average of nearly $40k. Yet as I mentioned in my individual post, I’m skeptical that this plays well in the middle of the country. My $4.4 million estimate also leaves it on the outside looking in.
Mack & Rita also seems to be suffering from lack of awareness. I’m only going with $2.3 million as this should come and go in multiplexes quickly.
With the newcomers out of the way, that leaves holdovers to talk about. Sony’s Bullet Train with Brad Pitt opened right on track with reasonable expectations (more on that below) and it should have no trouble remaining in the top spot again. With minimal competition, it could slide in the mid 40s in the best case scenario. That said, if you look at action titles of early August past, a drop in the low 50s to mid 50s seems just as likely. DC League of Super-Pets should stay in second… with a caveat.
If Top Gun: Maverick continues percentage drops in the teens (and there’s no reason to think it won’t), it should re-enter the top 5. Nope could drop out altogether with Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru battling it out for the 4 spot alongside Bodies Bodies Bodies. There’s even a chance Maverick could go from #6 to #2.
Here’s how I see the charts playing out and I’ll expand it to a top ten this time around:
1. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
2. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
3. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. Bodies Bodies Bodies
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
7. Nope
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
8. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
9. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
10. Easter Sunday
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
11. Mack & Rita
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
Box Office Results (August 5-7)
Bullet Train came in right where I thought it would with $30 million (my call was $29.7 million). While it certainly didn’t exceed expectations, it’s a perfectly decent opening and its overseas grosses are solid. The B+ Cinemascore indicates a somewhat fair-weather reaction so it’s worth monitoring how it holds up. As mentioned, the lack of competition should help.
DC League of Super-Pets had a stiffer sophomore fall than I anticipated with $11 million compared to my $13.6 million take. The two-week total is a muted $44 million.
Nope saw a drop of over 50% once again with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.1 million prediction. The three-week tally is approaching nine digits at $97 million.
Thor: Love and Thunder was fourth at $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million) as the MCU sequel became the highest pic in the franchise by eclipsing 2017’s Ragnarok. Total is $316 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I went with $6.9 million) for a $334 million haul.
Finally, the Jo Koy comedy Easter Sunday struggled in its start in 8th place with $5.4 million, just under my $5.6 million estimate.
John Logan’s directorial debut They/Them tries to mix social commentary with the slasher genre. The result doesn’t feel sharp or incisive and it especially doesn’t provide many scares. Logan has written many a screenplay (from Gladiator to The Aviator to Skyfall) and it’s a little shocking how much of a misfire this blend ends up being.
A group of teens and young adults arrive at the Whistler Camp run by Owen (Kevin Bacon) and wife Cora (Carrie Preston). It’s billed as a conversion camp for the LGBTQ community though Owen insists the experience is all about finding your true self. Their educational methods are soon discovered to be on the bizarre and barbaric side with non-binary Jordan (Theo Germaine) as the most vocal critic. Another skeptic is Molly (Anna Chlumsky), a newly employed nurse at the facility. She’s the only member of the staff not drinking the Kool-Aid.
In addition to the horror of Owen’s work, there’s a potential Friday the 13th situation happening with a masked killer on the grounds. That part of the storyline is put on the back burner mostly until the third act and the eventual twists are pretty obvious.
For the majority of its length, They/Them struggles mightily with its tone. We have glimmers of camp (including a cringe worthy Pink singalong) and then a therapy session that goes for Get Out vibes and fails. Some of the performances are decent. A small subplot about deeply closeted high schooler (Anna Lore) and her budding romance with the more confident Veronica (Monique Kim) might have been interesting in a different movie.
Despite the clever title with a double meaning (they slash them), the picture itself never solves its own identity crisis. By doing so, it certainly does a disservice to the issues it tries to explore.
What kind of commitments did Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg have that they missed the chance to make Thirteen Lives? It’s right up their disaster to screen alley, but instead Ron Howard is retelling the summer of 2018 Tham Luang cave rescue that seemed like a mission of impossibility.
In Thailand, a soccer team consisting of 12 preteen to teenage boys and their coach are stranded in the cavern when heavy rains follow their post practice journey to the dwelling. Their entrapment immediately brings thunderous media attention from around the globe and offers of assistance that ballooned to 5,000 people getting involved. The Governor of the territory (Sahajak Boonthanakit) must walk the a fine line communicating to the panic stricken families and a curious throng of journalists and onlookers.
It’s two Brits who are a focal point for the operation with experienced divers Richard Stanton (Viggo Mortensen) and John Volanthen (Colin Farrell). Local villagers band together to divert ten of millions in gallons of water from submerging the cave. Richard and John must come up with a plan to get the team out before the coming monsoon creates that eventuality. This eventually involves brining in Aussie Harry Harris (Joel Edgerton), whose medical expertise will come in handy more so than his diving skills.
To put it succinctly – this film is an amazing story told capably. You may find yourself more wowed by it if you don’t know much about what happened four summers ago. This statement also holds true if you didn’t see the Nat Geo doc The Rescue about this assignment. Howard and screenwriter William Nicholson cover snippets of multiple facets of the 18 day ordeal such as the politics involved and the excruciating waits of the boys loved ones.
The most captivating parts involve the intricacies of the rescue and the claustrophobic methods for it to be successful. Mortensen and Farrell’s convincing interplay helps. We know the outcome and Lives can often feel a little repetitive. The 2 hour and 20 minute runtime feels occasionally bloated and the first hour in particular is bumpy. It may not be the best title dealing with the subject. It’s not Howard’s best movie with the number 13 in the name thanks to a Tom Hanks led mission much further above ground. This is still a worthwhile journey.
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