28th Annual Critics Choice Awards Reaction

This prognosticator said that Everything Everywhere All at Once would win five races at the Critics Choice Awards last night and indeed it did. However, it was 3 for 5 in categories where I said it would emerge victorious. It had a better night than I figured considering where it was successful. I went 13 for 21 in my collective picks.

The acclaimed genre mash-up was unquestionably the the belle of the critical ball – taking Best Picture, Directors (s), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay, and Editing. I correctly had it for Picture, Supporting Actor (where Quan is probably on his way to a seasonal sweep), and Editing. For Director, I forecasted Globes winner Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert have established themselves as major competitors for the Academy’s filmmaking award. I’m doing my updated Oscar projections later today and I still haven’t decided whether the Daniels or Spielberg will sit in first position.

Everything also pulled an Original Screenplay trophy over The Banshees of Inisherin (which also was the Globe honoree). Martin McDonagh’s black comedy was surprisingly goose egged at CCA. I thought Colin Farrell may take Actor considering the critics groups prizes he’s compiled. Yet it was Brendan Fraser (The Whale) surfacing. His victory solidifies the Actor race as a three-way showdown between him, Austin Butler (Elvis), and Farrell. At this moment, Farrell might be third.

I also had Kerry Condon’s work in Banshees as the Supporting Actress recipient. CCA instead chose Globes taker Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). Like Quan, Bassett could be teeing up a sweep. I’m less confident about her running the field chances than Quan, but it’s absolutely possible.

The Everything love did not extend to Michelle Yeoh as I correctly named Cate Blanchett for Tár. I’ve had Blanchett in 1st for seemingly ever and last night confirmed my ranking (though Yeoh is still a threat). The biggest shocker of the evening was a second win for Tár in Score (I said Babylon). It’s not even eligible at Oscar due to its minimal music that’s barely in the film.

Women Talking (as I projected) took Adapted Screenplay. Here are other correct calls (all ones where the Academy could follow suit) – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio for Animated Feature, Top Gun: Maverick in Cinematography, the Hair and Makeup of Elvis, Babylon‘s Production Design, RRR‘s “Naatu Naatu” as Original Song, and the Visual Effects of Avatar: The Way of Water.

CCA has some prizes that the Oscars doesn’t feature. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery was named Best Acting Ensemble and Best Comedy. Those are two competitions where I thought Everything Everywhere would win and did not. That’s a nice double consolation situation for Onion. The Young Performer award marked the only victory for The Fabelmans with Gabriel LaBelle (who I predicted). For those keeping score, that means Banshees and Fabelmans didn’t win a single CCA that the Oscars have. In Foreign Language Feature, RRR rose up as I assumed. India is looking more foolish by the day by not making it their submission for International Feature Film at the Oscars.

My remaining miss – I had Elvis in Costume Design and it was Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Bottom line: this was a very good night for Everything and not for Banshees and Fabelmans. I’ve had Everything at #1 for quite some time in BP for the Oscars. It might not happen, but it’s looking more realistic as we get closer to nominations morning and the actual ceremony.

28th Annual Critics Choice Awards Winner Predictions

Airing only five days after the Golden Globes solidified some potential paths to Oscar glory, the Critics Choice Awards come our way on the CW tomorrow evening with Chelsea Handler hosting.

We have a number of feature film categories to pick and I’ll do so by forecasting a winner and a runner-up. I’m not going into details for these (frankly because I’m on a vacation this weekend), but a few quick questions to ponder:

Is this where Brendan Fraser (The Whale) gets a needed victory over Globe recipients Austin Butler (Elvis) or Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) to keep himself in the winner conversation? The same narratives apply to Everything Everywhere All at Once being named BP instead of Banshees and The Fabelmans. If Everything is going to make a stand, it should begin here and I’m projecting that it will. Will Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) begin a streak of trophies that the Globes started or will there be a mix of Supporting Actress honorees as we head toward Oscar?

I’ll have a recap up (probably Monday morning) with my thoughts, but here’s how I see this particular show shaking out!

Best Picture

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Director

The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

PREDICTED WINNER: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

PREDICTED WINNER: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

PREDICTED WINNER: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

PREDICTED WINNER: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

PREDICTED WINNER: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár

PREDICTED WINNER: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, She Said, The Whale, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Women Talking

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Acting Ensemble

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Women Talking

Best Young Actor/Actress

The Nominees: Frankie Corio (Aftersun), Jalyn Hall (Till), Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Bella Ramsey (Catherine Called Birdy), Banks Repeta (Armageddon Time), Sadie Sink (The Whale)

PREDICTED WINNER: Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Frankie Corio, Aftersun

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild

PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Comedy

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Bros, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR

PREDICTED WINNER: RRR

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Cinematography

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Empire of Light, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

PREDICTED WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Babylon

Best Costume Design

The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King

PREDICTED WINNER: Elvis

Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Film Editing

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Hair and Makeup

The Nominees: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Whale

PREDICTED WINNER: Elvis

Runner-Up: The Whale

Best Production Design

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

PREDICTED WINNER: Babylon

Runner-Up: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Score

The Nominees: Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking

PREDICTED WINNER: Babylon

Runner-Up: Women Talking

Best Song

“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise

PREDICTED WINNER: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Runner-Up: “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick

PREDICTED WINNER: Avatar: The Way of Water

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

That works out to the following movies garnering these numbers of wins:

5 Wins

Everything Everywhere All at Once

3 Wins

The Banshees of Inisherin

2 Wins

Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans, RRR

1 Win

Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

Missing Box Office Prediction

Missing is a sequel in concept to Searching, which turned an enormous profit in 2018. The thriller (out January 20th) takes place solely on a computer screen with different directors and and a fresh cast. Nick Johnson and Will Merrick make their debuts behind the camera after editing Searching. Aneesh Chaganty, helmer of the first, produces. Storm Reid headlines alongside Joaquim de Almeida, Ken Leung, Amy Landecker, Daniel Henney, and Nia Long.

Over four years ago, Searching made $26 million domestically and $75 million worldwide. The important point? It was reportedly made for under $900,000. That was probably the hummus budget for Avengers: Endgame that same year. I haven’t seen a price tag for this follow-up, but I imagine it’s low.

This may not quite make the nearly $8 million that Searching took in over the four-day Labor Day frame. Its overall stateside gross could fall short of its predecessor. If it triples those earnings across the globe, it should still be a success story for Sony.

Missing opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million

34th PGA Awards Nominations Reaction

One day after the Screen Actors Guild and the Director Guild announced their nominees for best in show for 2022, the Producers Guild were up to bat today. The PGA picks 10 nominees for Best Picture and 5 contenders for Animated Film (just like the Academy).

Over the past couple of decades, the PGA’s match rate with the Oscar BP has been impressive. You can probably expect no less than 7 of the PGA players to make it into the Academy’s race. 8 or 9 is even likelier based on history.

The nominees are:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

That means I went 8/10 in my forecast. To me, the biggest surprise is the inclusion of The Whale and not Wakanda.

I didn’t have either of them in my list. Instead I had The Woman King and Women Talking. PGA has shown a willingness to include popcorn fare that the Academy ignores (they nominated Wonder Woman five years back). For those thinking Wakanda is now getting a BP nod, it’s possible. Yet I’d proceed with caution.

The reason The Whale is more of a shock is that its fortunes had seemingly dwindled in recent weeks. It didn’t make Critics Choice or the Globes or AFI or NBR. Darren Aronofsky’s latest is divisive (it’s loved and loathed depending on who you’re reading). While Brendan Fraser’s nomination in Actor is a given, its status in BP seemed unlikely. The chances improved today.

You may notice that PGA’s list is 40% sequels. I don’t believe that will occur on Oscar nom morning. In addition to Panther, Onion is a question mark that has missed other key precursors. Its chances are greater, in my view, than Panther by a slim margin.

As mentioned yesterday in my prediction post, I do feel there’s a “safe 7” for Oscar BP (Avatar, Banshees, Elvis, EEAAO, Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun). They were all nominated at PGA.

The Woman King and Women Talking both took hits. I’ve had the latter clinging to the top 10. That may change when I update my Oscar picks on Monday. All Quiet on the Western Front, meanwhile, seems like the kind of pic PGA would ignore and the Academy might not. That was mentioned in my forecast and held true. This was also not a good day for Babylon, RRR, or Triangle of Sadness

In the animated competition, I went for 4 for 5 (picking The Bad Guys instead of Minions: The Rise of Gru). The correctly called 4 are Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (the frontrunner), Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and Turning Red.

I’ll have thoughts on who wins up on the blog shortly before the February 25th ceremony!

34th Producers Guild of America Awards Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild and the Director Guild announced their nominees today. Tomorrow it’s the Producers Guild time to reveal their 10 selections for outstanding films and 5 picks for animated feature.

This list often comes pretty darn close to mirroring the Academy’s eventual BP contenders. Over the past decade, here’s the matches:

2012 – 8/9

2013 – 8/9

2014 – 7/8

2015 – 7/8

2016 – 9/9

2017 – 7/9

2018 – 8/8

2019 – 9/9

2020 – 7/8

2021 – 8/10

That’s a pretty remarkable 78/87 over the past 10 ceremonies. We have seen some British or foreign pics make the Academy cut and not with PGA including last year with Drive My Car. Other recent examples include Amour, Darkest Hour, and The Father.

Some PGA nominees that Oscar voters didn’t honor include some pics with more of a popcorn flavor. They include Skyfall, Gone Girl, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

Keeping that in mind, that’s why I have All Quiet on the Western Front on the outside looking in. It could certainly materialize, but gotta pay attention to history, eh? Same goes for Aftersun.

I could envision something like The Menu, Nope, or RRR appearing on the list though I’m not feeling bold enough to pick either. As with BP, I feel there’s a relatively safe 7: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick. In addition to the aforementioned hopefuls, the remaining three slots could be down to: Babylon (I feel it’s more possible here than with the Academy), Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (same), Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Whale, The Woman King, Women Talking.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Predicted Nominees:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

Runner-Up: Babylon

As for the animated fare, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio should be way out front. For the other five possibilities, you just need to pick which one to eliminate.

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Predicted Nominees:

The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Runner-Up: Wendell and Wild

I’ll have a recap up tomorrow!

75th DGA Nominations Reaction

It wasn’t just the Screen Actors Guild revealing their list of nominees today as the Directors Guild of America (DGA) put out the five filmmakers vying for their top prize.

First things first. The three pictures that I believe have the best shot at taking BP at the Oscars all saw their conductors brought to this stage. That would be the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). This trio were all obvious ones to predict and that I did.

Yet I ultimately went 3 for 5. That’s because my picks of James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) and Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), makers of two popular commercial moneymakers, were left on the cutting room floor. Instead we got the surprising selection of Joseph Kosinski, maker of the year’s biggest moneymaker domestically with Top Gun: Maverick. I’ve only had Kosinski in my top 10 possibilities for the Academy on a couple of occasions. He’s never been in my high five.

The directing category at the Oscars usually match DGA on a 4 for 5 accuracy scale. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time they matched 5 for 5. In other words, I wouldn’t rush to put Kosinski in the quintet.

My other miss was Todd Field, conductor of Tár. His inclusion was more anticipated and I had him as my runner-up.

Assuming we don’t get a total match, what’s the state of the Academy competition? The Daniels and McDonagh and Spielberg (despite the BAFTA snub) are probably safe and Field seems right up the Academy’s alley.

The fifth slot, while it could be Kosinski, is still available for Cameron or Luhrmann. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) is beginning to get some ink. And we could absolutely still see a foreign director slide in like Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front. Longer shots in that vein are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave).

Who got hurt by being left out today? Certainly Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. Either one of them could have used this as a momentum boost. Same for Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle.

The DGA’s will be presented on February 18th and my winning projection will be made shortly beforehand.

29th SAG Awards Nominations Reaction

The morning after The Banshees of Inisherin beat Everything Everywhere All at Once for Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) at the Golden Globes, the two BP Oscar hopefuls tied for most nominations from the Screen Actors Guild voters. The Globes Drama winner The Fabelmans, meanwhile, had a more disappointing showing including one particular unexpected omission.

We are in the thick of awards season and I’m pretty pleased to report I went 25/30 on my SAG picks! Let’s walk through the six competitions with how I did and some general analysis. Final predictions for this ceremony will come closer to the February 26th airdate.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking

How I Did: 4/5

I went with The Woman King over the sprawling cast of Babylon. I’ll admit I was feeling a bit bold picking Women Talking after a subpar season, but it managed to make the cut while none of its performers garnered individual noms.

It doesn’t turn out this way in most years at SAG, but this prize may well come down to the three movies mostly likely to take the Oscar BP: Banshees, EEAAO, and Fabelmans.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

There are two headlines here in my opinion. The first is that Michelle Williams did not get in for The Fabelmans. Most prognosticators, including this one, have her sitting in 3rd for the Academy rankings.

Another is that Ana de Armas has made it for the Globes and SAG. A few weeks ago, her work as Marilyn Monroe in Blonde had fallen out of my top 10 possibilities. Now she is a serious threat for the Oscar quintet. I had Williams over de Armas projected.

As for the winner – this should come down to Blanchett v. Yeoh (both freshly minted Globe recipients).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)

How I Did: 4/5

SAG news other the nominees themselves was made today when it was announced that Netflix will livestream the show starting next year. It was also an unexpectedly solid morning for the streamer. In this race, the surprise inclusion was Adam Sandler for Hustle (which premiered on the subscription service). I had Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) forecasted instead.

It’s worth noting that Cruise has now missed Globe and SAG. For the former, it was easy to explain considering he had a highly publicized break with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. No such explanation is found with SAG. His chances for Oscar are shaky.

The dynamics of this derby are intact. Butler, Farrell, Fraser, and Nighy appear to be safe bets for Academy attention. The fifth spot is wide open and Sandler got some exposure this morning. As for a winner at SAG, it’s a three-person fight between Butler, Farrell, and Fraser.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

Bassett, Condon, and Curtis are the trio who’ve landed in all major precursors thus far. Jamie Lee’s costar Hsu makes it in over my pick of Jessie Buckley (Women Talking).

The Golden Globes honored Bassett last night and she could absolutely snag this trophy. However, I’m less convinced she sweeps than the chances of a sweep in Supporting Actor (more on that below). Let’s see if Condon or Curtis, especially, make it interesting.

A quick Women Talking comment. Even though Buckley or Claire Foy (who’s received nothing so far) are mostly or totally MIA, I still could see the Academy putting one of them up. We saw that they can throw a curveball in this race (Judi Dench in Belfast last year).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

After viewing Quan’s heartfelt remarks at Globes, it seems like a sweep is in the cards. My one perfect category means Redmayne has landed Globe and SAG love. The Academy could still leave him out and same goes for Dano. We’ll see if alternates like Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), or Globe nominee Brad Pitt (Babylon) can sneak in.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King

How I Did: 4/5

Avatar got in over my call of Everything Everywhere All at Once (YOU try being a stuntman waving those hot dog fingers!). The original Black Panther won in 2018 so perhaps the sequel will follow suit. Another sequel (Maverick) may prevent that.

That works out to the following number of SAG mentions for these pics:

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, The Whale, The Woman King

1 Nomination

Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Batman, Blonde, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Hustle, Living, Tár, Till, Top Gun: Maverick

80th Golden Globe Awards Recap

Eddie Murphy, winner of tonight’s Cecil B. DeMille lifetime achievement, might have had the best timed Will Smith Oscar slap joke I’ve heard thus far (better than that of host Jerrod Carmichael). Mr. Murphy being funny was not a surprise. And there weren’t a whole lotta surprises for the cinematic victors at the 80th Golden Globes Awards… with a couple of exceptions.

I went 10/14 on my picks, but two of those misses happened to be the biggest prizes of all. After being snubbed for the shortlist of 16 filmmakers for BAFTA’s directing award, Steven Spielberg and his autobiographical The Fabelmans had an impressive and perhaps needed showing this evening. He won Best Director (which I did predict) and he capped the night by taking Best Motion Picture – Drama. I didn’t predict that as I went with Elvis instead.

The picture with tonight’s best showing was The Banshees of Inisherin at three podium trips. As expected, Colin Farrell was named Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy and Martin McDonagh took Best Screenplay. Banshees also emerged in Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy over my favored Everything Everywhere All at Once.

The news wasn’t all bad for Everything as Michelle Yeoh was Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy and Ke Huy Quan is your Best Supporting Actor. The Banshees victory could spawn some prognosticators switching their vote to it winning the BP Oscar. I’m thinking Everything is still very viable and The Fabelmans did what it needed to make this a three-picture race. Had Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick been your Drama pick, it might’ve surged the buzz for them. It wasn’t to be.

Other than the Motion Picture competitions, my other two misses were for Score and Non-English Language Film. In the former, Babylon was selected over my predicted Women Talking. For the latter, it produced the night’s only shocker as Argentina, 1985 was named instead of RRR (what I went with) and All Quiet on the Western Front (what plenty of others went with).

As for the remaining races I got right – Cate Blanchett is Best Actress (Drama) for Tár while Angela Bassett is Supporting Actress for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Austin Butler got the sole Elvis victory as Best Actor (Drama). Guillermo del Toro saw his version of Pinocchio be crowned Animated Feature. Finally, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR is Best Original Song over tunes from heavy hitters like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Lady Gaga.

Bottom line: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Fabelmans have been my top 3 possibilities for Best Picture for many weeks. Nothing that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did tonight changed that dynamic.

We’ve got a busy few days coming up with SAG and DGA nominations tomorrow and Critics Choice Awards airing Sunday. I’ll have my updated Oscar predictions up on Monday!

75th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

In addition to the SAG Awards announcing their nominees on Wednesday, we also have the Director Guild of America (DGA) revealing its five contenders for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film.

This is a race that usually matches the Academy’s eventual 5 nominees with 80% accuracy. In the past decade, there’s been a 4 for 5 correlation in 8 of those years. There hasn’t been a 5 for 5 match since 2009.

Even though BAFTA shockingly left Steven Spielberg off its shortlist last week, he should make the cut here for The Fabelmans. It would also be quite unexpected for Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to miss for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

After that, it gets interesting. I do believe James Cameron is recognized for Avatar: The Way of Water. The DGA has recently named pics in the sci-fi genre that the Academy surprisingly ignored. Recent examples are Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).

On the flip side, the DGA has left off foreign filmmakers that the Academy does recognize. This includes Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) in the preceding two cycles. That could make the odds longer here for Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), or S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) than at the Oscars.

My hunch is that the trio of Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) are angling for the final two slots with Sarah Polley (Women Talking) as a potential spoiler. I’ve got Field in my Academy quintet right now but missing here.

DGA PREDICTIONS

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár

January 13-16 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million. That puts it outside of the top 6.

The 2023 box office got off to an impressive start as studios hope the momentum continues over the four-day MLK weekend. A Man Called Otto expands and we have the Gerard Butler action flick Plane and comedy remake House Party landing. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on the trio here:

A Man Called Otto Box Office Prediction
Plane Box Office Prediction
House Party Box Office Prediction

Otto, while technically not a newcomer, should perform the best of the newbies. It over performed in limited release this past weekend (more on that below) and could even make a run for #2 depending on the sophomore drop for M3GAN.

Speaking of that demented AI doll, a robust and clever marketing campaign propelled the PG-13 flick to a terrific start. Horror titles often experience hefty declines after their opening, but the holiday could mean a high teens (maybe even low 20s) gross is possible.

Neither M3GAN or Otto will prevent Avatar: The Way of Water from making it five in a row atop the charts. I’m thinking it manages high 30s to low 40s as it builds on the already half billion domestic haul.

As for Plane and House Party, I have both falling under double digits and that would leave them in 5th and 6th behind the fourth outing for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these forecasts are for Friday through Monday:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $41.2 million

2. M3GAN

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. A Man Called Otto

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. Plane

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (January 6-8)

As mentioned, it was a healthy kickoff to the new year as Avatar: The Way of Water maintained first position with only a -32 decrease. That’s good for a fourth weekend collection of $45.8 million (beyond my $38.3 million prediction) as it’s amassed $517 million stateside.

M3GAN translated great buzz and sterling reviews to a $30.4 million premiere, dancing past my $24.8 million take. Universal ran a campaign that included memorable trailers and Tik Tok type vids of M3GAN’s crashing Times Square and media interviews. It paid off handsomely.

Universal had the third spot with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish earning $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.2 million projection. The animated sequel is up to $88 million with nine figures on deck.

Maybe grown-ups are ready to return to multiplexes! After plenty of awards bait adult features have disappointed in recent months, A Man Called Otto with Tom Hanks bucked the trend on a still limited 637 screens. The gross was $4.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside my top five.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $3.4 million) for $445 million total.

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.1 million call. It’s at a ho-hum $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…