Best Picture 2021: The Final Five

We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.

As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:

Belfast

Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.

Don’t Look Up

Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.

Drive My Car

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.

Dune

Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.

King Richard

Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.

Licorice Pizza

Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.

Nightmare Alley

Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.

The Power of the Dog

Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.

West Side Story

Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.

That means my final 2021 five is:

Belfast

CODA

Dune

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.

If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
Best Picture 2017: The Final Five
Best Picture 2018: The Final Five
Best Picture 2019: The Final Five
Best Picture 2020: The Final Five

Oscar Predictions: Chevalier

After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival last September, Chevalier finally moves into multiplexes on April 21st. The musical biopic is directed by Stephen Williams, known best for his TV work on shows like Lost. Kelvin Harrison Jr. stars as famed 18th century violinist Joseph Bologne, Chevalier de Saint-Georges. The supporting cast includes Samara Weaving, Lucy Boynton, Marton Csokas, and Minnie Driver.

When it premiered at TIFF, critics mostly sang its praises. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 95%. While nearly all reviews are positive, they are not to a level where Best Picture consideration at the Oscars is feasible (the April release date basically confirms that).

The Golden Globes could be a different story. If distributor Searchlight slots Chevalier in Musical/Comedy (which would be the wise play), both the movie and Harrison’s work could contend.

Given the period setting, the Academy could look at Production Design or Costume Design (perhaps even Sound). It’s also possible that it ends up lost in the shuffle at year’s end. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant finds Jake Gyllenhaal back in Jarhead territory in this war thriller. It marks Ritchie’s second release of 2023 after Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre flopped last month. Formerly titled The Interpreter, costars include Dar Salim, Alexander Ludwig, Antony Starr, Emily Beecham, and Jonny Lee Miller.

Gyllenhaal’s previous action flick was a year ago with Ambulance. It performed below expectations with an $8.6 million start. Ritchie’s aforementioned Guerre managed only $3 million in its unfortunate opening.

The Covenant doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. I think it’ll have a higher premiere than the director’s last effort, but lower than its lead’s predecessor.

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Evil Dead Rise prediction, click here:

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction

For my Beau Is Afraid prediction, click here:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.

The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.

Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.

Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

For my Beau Is Afraid prediction, click here:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Mafia Mamma

Toni Collette has had a fascinating filmography when it comes to recognition from major awards shows. Despite plenty of acclaimed performances across all genres, her sole nod from the Academy came in Supporting Actress for 1999’s The Sixth Sense. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes) didn’t mention her for Sense, but have nominated her twice in lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy for her breakout role in 1995’s Muriel’s Wedding and 2006’s Little Miss Sunshine. Critics Choice, meanwhile, singled her out for 2018’s Hereditary. In other words, there’s no consistency to be found.

This Friday, Collette headlines the whacky (get it?) crime comedy Mafia Mamma. She plays a middle-aged suburbanite thrust into the high concept of inheriting Cosa Nostra duties. Catherine Hardwicke (maker of Thirteen and Twilight) directs with a supporting cast including Monica Bellucci, Sophia Nomvete, Eduardo Scarpetta, Alfonso Perugini, and Francesco Mastroianni.

The Bleecker Street production wasn’t made for Academy consideration. However, it’s not crazy to think Collette could contend for another Actress mention in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes (35 years after Michelle Pfeiffer was up in the same category for Married to the Mob).

Yet the reviews might have you pondering if Collette owed a debt to someone. Critics are analyzing this rather harshly with a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far. It’s safe to assume that Mamma won’t be up for anything. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Renfield

Reviews are out for this Friday’s Renfield and the general consensus is that it doesn’t suck. From The Lego Batman Movie and The Tomorrow War maker Chris McKay, Nicolas Cage stars as Dracula with Nicholas Hoult as his title character employee. Awkwafina, Ben Schwartz, Adrian Martinez, and Shohreh Aghdashloo costar.

With a 72% Rotten Tomatoes score, the bulk of the praise is going to Cage for his unsurprisingly demented work as the iconic vampire. Universal is certainly not looking at this as an awards contender, but it’s fair to wonder whether a tech race like Makeup and Hairstyling could be in play. Horror comedies have seen past successes there, including 80s winners An American Werewolf in London and Beetlejuice. In recent years, the genre has been underrepresented. I wouldn’t expect Renfield to change that, but it’s at least possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

65 Review

The title card for 65 doesn’t emerge onscreen until 16 minutes into the runtime. That’s actually about one-sixth of the way through and (I think) it’s meant to serve as a surprise reveal. The trailer already spoiled it because (umm… spoiler alert?) that number refers to 65 million years ago on Earth when so-so looking CG dinosaurs roamed freely. I suspect a lot more roamed freely, but this movie’s budget might not have supported Jurassic Park or World level sizes.

Mills (Adam Driver) is a pilot on the planet Somaris whose sick daughter (Chloe Coleman) causes him to take on a two-year expedition to pay for her treatment. When an asteroid field causes his ship to crash, he lands on a planet filled the aforementioned creatures. It turns out (as we find either via TV spots, trailers, or after 16 minutes) that this extinction level event is about to make the dinos disappear. Alien Mills has collided into our planet at an inopportune time. He discovers one survivor from the accident – a preteen who speaks a foreign language named Koa (Ariana Greenblatt). The duo must find the other half of the wreckage lying atop a mountain that contains an escape hatch.

It’s a long haul to that locale as their words are lost in translation and future relics hunt them down. They do manage to bond and, yes, there are correlations to his ill offspring. The script from directors Scott Beck and Bryan Woods (who’ve done much better when they penned A Quiet Place) injects some humor into their interplay for about two or three minutes. A tone of somberness rules this for the remaining hour and a half.

As they make their uphill climb to safety, I was disappointed in how flat 65 feels. The effects are mostly bland. Of course, technicians haven’t really improved dino design since Jurassic Park 30 years ago and this is no exception. There is some occasional striking production design. Driver is a fine actor with a nothing part and there’s little character development with Koa either. At its best, this is serviceable. For the most part, what is happening on Earth is unremarkable.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Beau Is Afraid

A24 just hit the Oscar jackpot with Everything Everywhere All at Once and they have another multi-genre family opus opening in limited release this Friday. Beau Is Afraid is the third feature from writer/director Ari Aster behind acclaimed scary flicks Hereditary and Midsommar. With a $35 million budget, this is the biggest budget yet for the distributor. The three hour episodic mix of mommy issues, satire, and horror is headlined by Joaquin Phoenix with a supporting cast including stage legend Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Ryan, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.

The review embargo has just lifted and the reactions are all over the place. A 75% Rotten Tomatoes score is the number at this early stage. There are some recurring thoughts among the write-ups. One is that Aster takes gigantic swings. Some pay off. Some don’t. Another is that he’s perhaps given too much freedom this time and that the runtime is exceedingly long. There are comparisons to Charlie Kaufman and numerous mentions of Freud. You also get the impression that plenty of moviegoers will strongly dislike it. The word unhinged pops up in more than one synopsis.

It could be telling that Beau skipped the film festival circuit and opted for this spring release. A24 might suspect they don’t have an awards player (though you could correctly point out that Everything Everywhere came out around the same time). That said, they might opt to throw their serious campaigning behind the upcoming Past Lives (which drew raves at Sundance). While Phoenix is drawing praise for his performance, it could be a tall order for him to nab a Best Actor nod. Perhaps this fall’s Napoleon gives him a better shot. Some critics have singled out LuPone, but apparently her actual screen time is limited.

Beau will undoubtedly have its ardent supporters and fierce detractors. That could be a mix that doesn’t result in significant Oscar buzz. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Renfield Box Office Prediction
The Pope’s Exorcist Box Office Prediction
Suzume Box Office Prediction

Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.

Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).

The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.

Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.

Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $74.9 million

2. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Air

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Suzume

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

6. The Pope’s Exorcist

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.

John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.

Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.

Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.

Finally, faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.

Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you stream!

Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: How to Blow Up a Pipeline

The environmental heist thriller How to Blow Up a Pipeline debuted in limited release over Easter weekend to solid results. From director Daniel Goldhaber, this is a fictionalized adaptation of Andreas Malm’s nonfiction 2021 novel. The cast includes Ariela Barer (who also co-scripted), Kristine Froseth, Lukas Gage, Forrest Goodluck, Sasha Lane, Jayme Lawson, Marcus Scribner, Jake Weary, and Irene Bedard.

Pipeline first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to impressive reviews and was quickly snatched up by Neon for distribution. The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 95%. I would not be surprised if its distributor (who shepherded Triangle of Sadness to a BP nom last year) make a serious campaign push here.

It could be a long shot for BP, but I wouldn’t totally discount it. This could also be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…