And here we are. After multiple Oscar predictions posts over the last couple of months and final predictions for Best Director, Actor and Actress, and Supporting Actor and Actress through the week, we arrive at the biggest category of all… Best Picture.

Unlike all other races which are set at five nominees, the selections for Best Picture can be anywhere between five and ten films. This, of course, makes it tougher to predict but I gotta do what I gotta do.

Last year was the first time for the 5 through 10 format and 9 pictures were nominated. I am predicting that nine movies once again will make the cut.

In my mind, there are five shoo-in nominees: Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, Ben Affleck’s Argo, Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables, David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. If any one of these movies miss the cut, I’d be very surprised. Sitting at #6 as a near shoo-in is Ang Lee’s Life of Pi.

Then it gets complicated. Really complicated.

Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained is an enormous question mark. It’s tough to determine whether or not the Academy will honor it, with some of the controversy involved with it. Django is one of the best reviewed films of the year and it’s on its way to becoming Tarantino’s highest grosser ever. I have gone back and forth on whether I believe it gets in. At the end of the day, I’m predicting its nomination with the caveat that its exclusion will not surprise me all that much.

The French drama Amour was very well reviewed and has picked up some critic organizations awards. This one could also go either way. So could Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson’s comedy released last summer that seems to be gaining a lot of steam lately. The indie favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild has a lot of fans, too. So does The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, a British pic that did well at the box office. The tsunami drama The Impossible garnered solid reviews, as did Robert Zemeckis’s alcoholism drama Flight with Denzel Washington. There’s another French film, The Intouchables, which has gained traction out of nowhere all of a sudden.

Another picture that seems to gaining traction: a little flick called Skyfall. The 007 adventure could make history by being the first Bond movie to receive a Best Picture nomination. It is a very real possibility and its inclusion would not shock me.

Lastly, we come to Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master. When it was released in early fall, it was immediately considered a near shoo-in for a Best Picture nod. Then it started falling off the radar in a major way. Two factors contributed to this: while lots of critics adored it, others were ambivalent and audiences didn’t respond well. Also, a lot of the movies released after The Master made good on their Oscar potential – Lincoln, Argo, Les Mis, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook. This has caused most Oscar prognosticators to leave The Master off the list, including me when I made my last round of predictions. So consider this my dark horse pick: I’m going against the conventional wisdom and putting it back in because I think those who love this movie really loved it. That might be enough to put it back in the mix.

I mentioned a number of films because I wanted to give you the names of all titles that I believe could possibly get in. Of course, not all of them can.

The Oscar nominations are out tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM Eastern time. After a lot of blogging and thinking, I will predict the nine movies that will be nominated for Best Picture tomorrow will be…

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE

Amour

Argo

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

 

 

With the Oscar nominations coming out Thursday morning, I have been blogging my nominee predictions in the six major categories. I’m through the acting predictions and this brings us to only Best Picture (coming tomorrow) and now… Best Director.

This category is often seen as a good prognosticator of the movies that will be nominated for Best Picture. As you may be aware, Best Picture nominees can be anywhere from five to ten films. All other categories are a finite five. With this new rule change that’s only been in effect since last year, it’s probably fair safe to assume that every director nominated will see their movie nominated, too. So here’s a good indication of movies I think will get Best Picture nominations when I reveal those tomorrow.

Just this afternoon, a major harbinger of the Best Director Oscar category was released… the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) nominations. This association nominates five directors for their award every year. To give you an idea of the consistency of DGA nods to Oscar nods, in the last 10 years these nominations have exactly matched three times. It’s been a 4 out of 5 ratio six times. And only a 3 to 5 ratio once. In other words, it’s quite safe to assume that 4 out of 5 DGA nominees will get Best Director Oscar nominations. And maybe even all five could match.

The five DGA nominees announced today: Ben Affleck for Argo, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables, Ang Lee for Life of Pi, and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. These are top five that I’ve been predicting on the blog for some time now and I’m having a hard time seeing any reason to change it….

Except for the fact that, more often than not, it’s only four out of five. So who could get in that didn’t get a DGA nod? The most likely is David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. There’s also Michael Haneke for Amour, whom several experts have been picking. If the Academy really goes for Django Unchained or Moonrise Kingdom, Quentin Tarantino or Wes Anderson, respectively, could sneak in. And Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in The Master is a long-shot possibility.

Affleck, Bigelow, and Spielberg appear to be shoo-ins. Lee and Hooper seem the most vulnerable. I think Lee’s beautiful visionary direction for Life of Pi keeps him in. I am much less confident in Tom Hooper for Les Mis and could easily see Russell replacing him.

At the end of the day though, I have to stick with the five directors I’ve been going with that just happen to be the DGA nominees from a few hours ago.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Be sure to check back tomorrow for my predictions for the big one – Best Picture!

With the Academy Award nominations coming out Thursday, this is part two of my series of FINAL predictions for what and whom will be recognized. We are at my predictions for Best Actor and Actress, with Best Director to come Tuesday and Best Picture on Wednesday.

BEST ACTOR

Let’s get this out of the way first: if Daniel Day-Lewis is not nominated for Lincoln, it would constitute one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history. There is no way that’s going to happen. None. If it happens, you can call me every name in the book publicly on Facebook. That’s my confidence level in that nomination.

After that, I don’t believe I’ve ever seen an Oscar race like this year’s for Best Actor. Why? As I’ve explained in previous posts, there are five other performances that would be shoo-ins in any other year. However, only four will make it in.

Those five performances are: John Hawkes in The Sessions, Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook, Denzel Washington in Flight, Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, and Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables. There’s also Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, who remains a remote possibility if the French film really ends up taking off with voters.

In a weaker year, performances such as Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained and Richard Gere in Arbitrage, among others, would merit consideration.

You can make arguments for any of those five performers being left off. For Hawkes, The Sessions is a small film that didn’t really connect with audiences. If Helen Hunt doesn’t get a Supporting Actress nod for the movie (I’ve predicted she will), Hawkes could be in trouble.

For Denzel, Flight was once considered a contender for Best Picture. This doesn’t seem as likely now and Denzel could easily be the film’s only nomination… or perhaps the Academy ignores it altogether.

The Master was once considered a shoo-in for nominations for Picture and Director. This also seems much less likely now. Phoenix has missed out on the some of the precursors, too.

Bradley Cooper is still pretty new in the game, at least to Academy voters. His co-stars in Silver Linings Playbook like Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro have gotten the lions share of attention.

Hugh Jackman has received career best reviews for Les Miserables, but if the movie fails to get a Best Picture nomination (which seems unlikely) or Best Director (which could happen), there could be a ripple effect leaving Jackman out.

So there’s the arguments against each one, but the truth is, I’ve had a tougher time deciding which one gets left out more than any other category I’m predicting. But, I’ve got to pick and I’m not changing the five from my last post.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

As I’ve written about before, Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook and Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty appear to be shoo-ins. Then there’s uncertainty.

Emmanuelle Riva, an 84 year old French actress has gotten a good deal of attention for Amour. Naomi Watts has gotten fine reviews for The Impossible. Quevenzhane Wallis is 9 years old and received great notices for starring in the indie favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild. Marion Cotillard also has received attention for indie film Rust and Bone. Rachel Weisz got some surprise precursor nominations and wins for this past spring’s thriller The Deep Blue Sea. Helen Mirren was singled out by critics for her performance as Mrs. Hitchcock in Hitchcock. 

Any one of these ladies could join Lawrence and Chastain on Thursday’s list and really no combination would shock me.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

All right, folks! Check back tomorrow when we cover Best Director!

So, here we go! On Thursday, the Oscar nominations will be released. I’ve been blogging often with my predictions.

Starting this evening, I am dividing my FINAL predictions into four posts: Best Supporting Actor/Actress tonight, Best Actor/Actress on Monday, Best Director on Tuesday, and Best Picture on Wednesday. On Thursday, you’ll have my complete analysis of the nominations and some early hints on what and whom I believe will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My picks in this category haven’t really changed much over the last couple of months. I have a nagging suspicion there will be a surprise nominee… none of the five I’m picking would be considered surprises. Those surprises could include Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained. I can’t help but think of 2006 when prognosticators assumed Jack Nicholson would get a supporting nod for The Departed, but it ended up being Mark Wahlberg nominated for the film. The smart money is on Leo DiCaprio getting nominated and my predictions reflect that. But, don’t be too surprised if Waltz gets the nod instead. There’s even an outside shot Samuel L. Jackson could get the nod for Django as well… he’s seemed to gain a little steam over the last couple of weeks. Another nominee that would be considered fairly surprising is Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike. He’s had a great 2012, with acclaimed roles in Mike and the comedy Bernie. And there’s the chance that Javier Bardem, with his terrific turn as the bad guy in Skyfall, could be recognized. All that being said, I can’t bring myself to pick any of them and I’m playing it safe with the same five actors I’ve had for quite a few weeks.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

These picks also reflect the same five actresses as my last predictions. Again, I’m supremely not confident about my picks. I think Anne Hathaway and Sally Field are shoo-ins. They’ve been so for months. The rest of the field is unpredictable. When the Golden Globe and SAG nominations came out, everyone was shocked to Nicole Kidman nominated for the critically panned and little-seen drama The Paperboy. Many now believe that recognition will translate into an Oscar nod. I wouldn’t be surprised, but still can’t predict her. Other “surprises” that wouldn’t shock me include Judi Dench in Skyfall and Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook. Up until my last round of predictions, I had Amy Adams in The Master listed, but dropped her in favor of a somewhat surprise pick, Ann Dowd in the indie thriller Compliance. I’m sticking with it.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ann Dowd, Compliance

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Tomorrow, check in for my final picks for Best Actor and Actress!

Oscar nominations will be out in exactly two weeks – Thursday, January 10th. The latest round of my Oscar predictions for the six major categories represents bad news for The Master and good news for Django Unchained and various actors and actresses. I’ll break them down by category:

BEST PICTURE

Just ten days ago, I made my latest round of predictions. In them, I predicted nine films would be nominated (it can be anywhere from five to ten). Now I’m predicting eight. Not only that, for the first time, I’m including Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained. That means two films get left off. Those are Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master and the indie film Beasts of the Southern Wild. I’ve had them both getting nominated for two months, so this is a pretty major shift. Of the eight films predicted, I’m least confident in the French drama Amour and Django receiving nominations. They’re in for now though.

PREDICTIONS

Amour

Argo

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

BEST DIRECTOR

My picks for the five Director nominees has stayed remarkably consistent. There are no changes from ten days ago and even further back than that. There is certainly a chance that Michael Haneke for Amour, David O. Russell for Silver Linings, or even Quentin for Django could sneak in. However, my top five remain…

PREDICTIONS

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

BEST ACTOR

Here’s the major change: ten days ago, I explained that the Best Actor race was between six actors, but only five get in. My actor on the outside looking in was Hugh Jackman for Les Mis. I now believe the success of the picture will propel Jackman to a nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis is in, no question. So that leaves John Hawkes, Denzel Washington, Joaquin Phoenix, and Bradley Cooper fighting for three spots left. This is a tough one and may continue to change over the next two weeks. Many feel Phoenix in The Master will be the one left out (something that seemed inconceivable not long ago). I’m still not ready to count him out for a nomination, so for now it’s Cooper on the outside looking in.

PREDICTIONS

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

This still appears to be a two-actor race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. I’m making one change for the rest of the nominees. I’m putting Naomi Watts’ performace in The Impossible back in, leaving out young actress Quevenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild. My rationale is simple: Watts is more well-known and since I’m predicting Beasts will be left out of Best Picture for the first time, I believe that could translate to Wallis missing out.

PREDICTIONS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Like the Directing category, this is the other one where I have no changes from ten days ago. I have a lingering suspicion we could see a surprise nominee, like Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike or Javier Bardem in Skyfall. I just don’t know which actors I’ve predicted would get left off. So my five remain…

PREDICTIONS

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

One change here because I feel that this category, more than almost any, has the real chance of a fairly surprising nominee. Due to that, for the first time, I’m taking Amy Adams performance in The Master out and replacing her with Ann Dowd with for the indie film Compliance. 

PREDICTIONS

Ann Dowd, Compliance

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

So there we have it – my predictions with two weeks left to go. Expect another one late next week and a final one on Wednesday, Jan. 9 – the day before.

Since the last time I blogged Oscar predictions, a number of very significant events have taken place: the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations are out. Most critics groups have bestowed their awards. Many prominent individual critics have started releasing their “Best Of” lists of the year.

The Oscar race has taken shape. We won’t know until next month what will be nominated, but it certainly felt like time to update my predictions for what will be nominated. Here goes in the six major categories. What I will do in this post is break down my predictions by “Locks”, “Strong Possibility”, “Possible”, and “Dark Horse” and indicate my predicted nominees in bold. I will give a number for each to indicate how strongly I feel its nomination is (1 being the highest and so forth). This does not necessarily indicate what I think will win (I could rank something #1 on nomination chances and not believe it ultimately will take home the golden guy). I will likely make just one more round of nomination predictions (maybe two) and then we will see a blog post in the future after nominations are out on what I think will win. Here we go:

Best Picture

Locks

1. Lincoln

2. Argo

3. Zero Dark Thirty

4. Les Miserables

Strong Possibility

5. Silver Linings Playbook

6. Life of Pi

7. Amour

Possible

8. The Master

9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

10. Django Unchained

11. Moonrise Kingdom

12. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Dark Horse

13. Flight

14. The Impossible

15. Skyfall

Breakdown: At this point, I believe the chances of eight to ten nominees is much more likely than not. I have The Master and Beasts of the Southern Wild hanging by a thread. The French film Amour seems to have just enough traction to be in, though that too is tentative. The real threat to get in is Django Unchained, which is being called one of Tarantino’s best. It was only three years ago that Inglourious Basterds was nominated. I’m still not quite ready to predict it gets a nomination, but I’m awfully close. Moonrise Kingdom and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel have real shots too. For the moment, the nine in bold make the cut.

Best Director

Locks

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

3. Ben Affleck, Argo

Strong Possibilities

4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

5. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

6. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

7. Michael Haneke, Amour

Possible

8. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Dark Horse

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

11. Benh Zietlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Breakdown: If my estimation, we have eight directors fighting it out for five slots. Spielberg, Bigelow, and Affleck are in. Then it gets tricky. I have a hard time not seeing Ang Lee nominated for Life of Pi, which is being praised mostly for its amazing direction. Also, Les Miserables is a BIG film and I think Hooper will get recognized for it. Still, Russell, Haneke, and Tarantino are real possibilities. For now though, I think they’re on the outside looking in.

Best Actor

Locks

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Strong Possibilities

2. John Hawkes, The Sessions

3. Denzel Washington, Flight

4. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Richard Gere, Arbitrage

8. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Dark Horse

9. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Breakdown: Everyone knows Day-Lewis is getting nominated. However, he is the only one I feel comfortable calling a lock. Why? Because this genuinely looks like a VERY strong six man race and only five can be nominated. I have gone back and forth on who gets left out and right now it’s Hugh Jackman without the musical chair. Everyone else (Hawkes, Washington, Cooper, Phoenix) are also vulnerable to find themselves standing. For this category, I will give an early spoiler alert: that #1 slot could very well translate in who I pick to win eventually.

Best Actress

Locks

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Strong Possibilities

3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

6. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

7. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

8. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Breakdown: This race looks like it’s coming down to Lawrence and Chastain competing for the gold. And I think 85 year old French actress Riva has gotten enough kudos that she’s in. After that, the last two slots are a real battle for actresses listed 4-8, but today I give the edge to Cotillard and Wallis.

Best Supporting Actor

Locks

1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Strong Possibilities

3. Alan Arkin, Argo

4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

6. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Javier Bardem, Skyfall

8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

9. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

10. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Dark Horse

11. John Goodman, Argo or Flight

12. Ewan McGregor, The Impossible

13. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained

Breakdown: This is a bigger list because I think there’s a legitimate chance we see a surprise nominee, like Bardem or McConaughey or Henry. For now, these predictions are the same they were a month ago though.

Best Supporting Actress

Locks

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Strong Possibilities

2. Sally Field, Lincoln

3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions

4. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Possible

5. Amy Adams, The Master

6. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

7. Ann Dowd, Compliance

7. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

8. Kelly Reilly, Flight

9. Judi Dench, Skyfall

10. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Breakdown: Hathaway is definitely the front runner, but I believe real upset possibilities exist with Field or Smith or maybe Hunt. The fifth slot is tricky. I’m predicting Adams gets in, but Kidman has gained major momentum when her role in the critically panned and little seen film The Paperboy got SAG and Globe nominations and Barks and Dowd are certainly possible.

So there you have it, my blog reading friends! My current predictions. I’ll be back for another round soon enough.

It’s been less than two weeks since I updated my predictions for the six major Oscar categories. Two events over the Thanksgiving holiday have solidified the standings of some and lessened the award possibilities for others: the first screenings of Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty.

Both films, especially Les Miserables, confirmed their standings as Best Picture contenders. I never really doubted it for Miserables, which I predicted for a nomination in my initial October 16th post. The Bin Laden manhunt thriller Zero Dark Thirty has yet to make my Best Picture list in both of my posts. That has now changed.

Looking over my initial Best Picture predictions, I categorized them in four ways: Shoo-Ins, Strong Possibilities, Possible, and Long Shots. In this post, I will revisit the four categories. And as The Joker says, “Here we go!”:

Best Picture

Shoo-Ins

In October, I listed Argo and Lincoln. Still holds true. Today though, I am comfortable in adding two more shoo-ins: Les Miserables and Ang Lee’s Life of Pi. Both of those films were listed as strong possibilities in my first post. No longer – they’re in.

Strong Possibilities

How quickly things can change! In October, I wrote that Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master was as close to a shoo-in without calling it that. This no longer holds true. A month and a half ago, I would’ve ranked it fourth (after Argo, Lincoln, Miserables) for its nomination chances. The film has really taken a dive in its chances. I still classify it as a Strong Possibility, but I will not be surprised if it is left out. With Miserables and Pi moving up to Shoo-In, the only other Strong Possibility I listed is David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook. That still holds true and I expect it has a better chance than The Master. Moving from Possible to Strong Possibility is Zero Dark Thirty, which is said to be an epic telling of the U.S. hunt to kill the most wanted man in the world.

Possible

There are still three major films that haven’t screened: Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit, Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, and Gus Van Sant’s Promised Land. So they will remain in this category. I also listed Flight, which I predicted would get nominated originally. I no longer believe so. Both the Foreign film Amour and the indie drama Beasts of the Southern Wild also stand good chances and remain in this category. I also believe the Tsunami drama The Impossible could sneak in. As for the others I listed – Cloud Atlas, Moonrise Kingdom, and The Sessions – I now believe these three pictures stand zero chance of getting nominated and are now long shots at best. One film moving up from Long Shot to Possible: Skyfall, already the biggest 007 adventure ever. Probably won’t happen, but you never know.

Long Shots

Listed back in October: The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, The Hunger Games, Anna Karenina, and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Nothing has changed here and none of these films are likely to be nominated. Another film has moved from Possible to Long Shot: Hitchcock, about the making of Psycho. Its reviews have simply not been good enough to think it has any real chance of making the list.

A few days ago, my predictions were Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, and Silver Linings Playbook. I now believe Zero Dark Thirty is in too. I also believe Amour and The Impossible are real possibilities and we’ll see if Hobbit or Django enter the fray when they screen very soon. I am about ready to take The Master out, but as of this moment I think it has enough support to stay.

So my current Best Picture predictions now stands at eight films:

ARGO

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

LES MISERABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

THE MASTER

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

ZERO DARK THIRTY

Of course, I’ll keep on updating as things change so keep on reading, my friends.

 

 

As a continuation of yesterday’s post, I am updating predictions on what I believe will be nominated for Oscars. Updates were provided in the last post regarding Best Picture and Director. Tonight, the acting categories.

BEST ACTOR

Last month, my predicted five were Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, John Hawkes in The Sessions, Denzel Washington in Flight, and Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook. The first three listed are shoo-ins and it would be a shock if they weren’t nominated. Washington is a near shoo-in. It’s the fifth slot that’s tricky – other than Cooper, it could easily be Anthony Hopkins in Hitchcock, Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, Richard Gere in Arbitrage, Ben Affleck in Argo, or Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables. There has really been nothing in the last month, however, to put them over Cooper. Yet. For now, my predicted five from my October is my predicted five in November.

BEST ACTRESS

The biggest change here since October is that Jessica Chastain’s performance in Zero Dark Thirty was announced as a Best Actress campaign, not Supporting Actress. No one’s seen it yet, but her role has been rumored to be a great one. There’s really only one shoo-in for a nomination and that’s Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. The other four I predicted were Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild, Emmanuelle Riva in Amour, Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone, and Helen Mirren in Hitchcock. I’m going to go ahead and say Chastain gets in, but it’s tough to predict who gets left out. For now, I’ll replace Riva with Chastain, but we’ll see how this shakes out in a month or so when I update predictions. Also, Naomi Watts in The Impossible is a real possibility.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

In both supporting categories, I predicted one from each that I know believe will not be nominated. For supporting actor, it’s William H. Macy in The Sessions. Don’t think it’s happening now. I’m not changing the other four I predicted – Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master, Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln, Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Alan Arkin in Argo. With Macy out, candidates for the fifth slot include Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained, John Goodman in Argo, Russell Crowe in Les Miserables, Ewan McGregor in The Impossible, Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike, and a new contender not mentioned last month, Javier Bardem in Skyfall. No one has seen Django yet, but director Quentin Tarantino has a great record of his actors getting Awards nomination, particularly in the Supporting categories. So for now, my fifth slot predictions goes to DiCaprio.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like Macy, I now believe Jacki Weaver is unlikely to be nominated for Silver Linings Playbook. Again, the other four predicted from last month still stand: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables, Sally Field in Lincoln, Helen Hunt in The Sessions, and Amy Adams in The Master. Fifth slot possibilities include Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and now Judi Dench in Skyfall. However, my new fifth slot prediction now goes to Samantha Barks, a newcomer who apparently has a key role in Les Miserables.

So there you go! In December, I’ll make further prediction updates. 

About a month ago, I made my Academy Award predictions in the six major categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.

As always, things in the race are constantly changing and I felt it was a good time to tell you what has changed in these races over the last 30 days, as more contenders have been seen and more buzz is out there. A few predictions I made don’t seem feasible anymore and other have solidified their standing over this time period. And now, all six categories and what has changed.

BEST PICTURE

As I explained in an earlier post, the number of Best Picture contenders can be anywhere between five and ten films, based on a complicated voting system. All other categories are limited to five and five only. In October, I predicted there would be eight: Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, Les Miserables, The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Flight. The following pictures have yet to be seen by any critics or audiences: Les Miserables, Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, Gus Van Sant’s Promised Land, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit, and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Any of these pictures are possible nominees, but Les Miserables seems to be the one talked about the most. There is no reason to predict it still won’t be nominated. We’ll know more about these films when I post my next update in early December.

As for the other seven pictures I predicted, the one that seems the most unlikely now is Flight, directed by Robert Zemeckis and starring Denzel Washington. The film is out and doing good box office, but it seems to be flying under the radar now for Awards consideration for Best Pic. 

In my previous post, the biopic Hitchcock starring Anthony Hopkins and Helen Mirren had yet to be seen. Now it has and it’s generated lots of positive reviews and a few negative. It doesn’t quite seem to have enough juice to make the list. 

A month ago, Skyfall seemed like a complete long shot. Now, I’d say it stands a chance, but it’s still unlikely. 

At this point, I am taking Flight off the list and adding nothing, making my current Best Picture predictions:

ARGO

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

LES MISERABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

THE MASTER

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

 

BEST DIRECTOR

I’ll make this one super quick. Last month, I predicted the five directors nominated as:

Ben Affleck, Argo

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

At this time, I am not changing those predictions, though David O. Russell’s work in Silver Linings Playbook could end up making the list and knocking someone off.

We shall see. I’ll be back soon with updates on Actor and Actress, followed by Supporting Actor and Actress in the coming days.

 

Just a quick update on the Oscar race for Best Picture that I wrote about extensively earlier and will soon again.

Argo hit #1 at the box office this weekend in its third weekend. This is a very rare feat for a movie to do and it hasn’t happened in nearly two years when True Grit did.

Typically, a movie drops 40-50% weekend to weekend. This is not the case at all with Argo. It only dropped 25% in its third weekend. Besides being a major critical favorite (with a rating of 96% on Rotten Tomatoes), the Ben Affleck-directed film has clearly become an audience favorite. With drops that low, it is clear that moviegoers are telling their friends to go see it.

What does this mean? Right now, it means that Argo is the front runner to win Best Picture.

We will see Lincoln reviews in the days to come. That could change things, but early screenings suggest it’s very good, but not a masterpiece. If Lincoln does not connect with audiences in the way that Argo already has, it may not overtake the momentum (or Argo-mentum, as my lame headline suggests).

The other factor in the way of Argo is Les Miserables, which seems tailor-made for Oscar attention. No one has seen it yet though. So for now, Argo is the film to beat in the Oscar race.