Over the past couple of weeks on this here blog, I made my first round of Oscar predictions for the six top categories – Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. In that time, I’ve even changed a couple things around here and there. Due to this, I felt it would be useful to put all my predictions in this handy post for your perusal.

I will likely have my second round of predictions ready to go by mid-October at the latest. As for now, Todd’s early Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

All is Lost

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Captain Phillips

Foxcatcher

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Twelve Years a Slave

 

BEST DIRECTOR

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

David O. Russell, American Hustle

 

BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofor, Twelve Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Robert Redford, All is Lost

Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

 

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

George Clooney, Gravity

Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And here we go!

After days on the blog predicting the races for Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress – we arrive at the big prize, Best Picture! In the last few years, the Academy has gone to a format that allows anywhere from five to ten pictures to be recognized. In the last two years, that number has been nine. For now – I’ll keep that number for those I’m predicting, though that’s certainly subject to change.

This newer format more or less guarantees that the five people nominated for Best Director will see their movies nominated for Best Picture. Therefore, that means I’m predicting Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, and David O. Russell’s American Hustle are in. I am supremely confident in the nominations of two in particular: Twelve Years a Slave, which I’m also predicting for Director, Actor (Chiwetel Ejiofor), Supporting Actor (Michael Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o) and Gravity, which I’ve also predicted for Director, Actress (Sandra Bullock), and Supporting Actor (George Clooney).

Foxcatcher, the true-life drama starring Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum, is the only title I’m predicting that no one has seen on the film festival circuit or otherwise. That goes against a group of unseen titles that many others are currently predicting: Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, Spike Jonze’s Her and Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. Any one of them could enter the fray once the word is out, but I’m simply not ready to include them at press time.

There are two titles already out that stand decent chances: Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine and Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, but I don’t think they’ll quite make it. Same goes for the following: Ron Howard’s Rush, Denis Vilenueve’s Prisoners, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Jason Reitman’s Labor Day, Bill Condon’s The Fifth Estate, and Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyer’s Club.

So what are the other four movies I’ve got in right now? Paul Greengrass’s Somali pirate thriller Captain Phillips looks to be a strong possibility. So does the family drama August: Osage County, which has opened to mixed festival reviews but whose A-list cast (Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch) should help. The Coen Bros folk music pic Inside Llewyn Davis opened to raves on the festival circuit. And I believe the box office success of this summer’s Lee Daniels’ The Butler puts it in for now.

Will these predictions change? You bet they will! For now, though, here are my nine predictions for the biggest category of them all:

BEST PICTURE

All is Lost

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Captain Phillips

Foxcatcher

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Twelve Years a Slave

 

And there you have it! I’ll be updating my predictions for the six major races frequently on the blog so stay tuned!

Tonight on the blog, my predictions for the Best Director race in the 2013 Oscars. I’ve already covered all the acting races at this point. In fact, I even made some changes to the Best Actress and Supporting Actress races in those posts this evening. These are based on strong rumors that Meryl Streep will be campaigned for in the lead Actress race and not Supporting for August: Osage County. I cordially invite you to review all the acting predictions at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/07/early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Moving forward, this Best Director race so far is tough to predict with two exceptions. I’m already highly confident that Alfonso Cuaron will be recognized for this October’s Gravity and Steve McQueen will be nominated for Twelve Years a Slave. Both pictures have taken the film festival circuit by storm and their work behind the camera seems virtually assured of being honored.

Speaking of film festivals, a number of them (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) have occurred over the past couple of weeks and that has helped the Oscar race take some shape. However, there are still a number of high-profile contenders that no one has seen yet. They are: John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, David O. Russell’s American Hustle, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Spike Jonze’s Her, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher .All are legit contenders in this race and for Best Picture. At this juncture, I’m only predicting only one of these eight directors to be nominated. That would be Russell, who’s been nominated for his last two features, The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. This might be a good time to explain why I’m not predicting Scorsese right now. Yes, he’s a legendary director who has been nominated for four of his last five pics. Based on the trailer, though, I’m not convinced Wolf of Wall Street is Oscar material. Don’t get me wrong… I’m probably looking forward to it more than any other movie this fall. Wolf looks like an extremely fun black comedy and I’m not sure that the Academy will recognize it. So (for now) Marty is off the list. As for the other unseen titles, any of them could be a factor and and their directors could make the list in future predictions.

This leaves the following directors vying for two more predicted slots: Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips, Lee Daniels Lee Daniels’ The Butler, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Joel and Ethan Coen’s Inside Llewyn Davis, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, Ron Howard’s Rush, John Wells’s August: Osage County, Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long to Walk to Freedom, Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, and Denis Villeneuve’s Prisoners. Who knows? Their could be even more auteurs joining this lengthy list later.

All of these pictures have either been released or, in most cases, have played the festival circuit recently. Of particular note is Rush, Ron Howard’s Formula One racing pic that was met with terrific reviews. This might be a nice chance for the Academy to recognize Howard twelve years after he won the prize for A Beautiful Mind. For the fifth slot, I’m going a bit out on a limb and going with J.C. Chandor, director of the Robert Redford nautical drama/thriller All is Lost. I’ve gone back and forth wanting to include Greengrass, the Coen Brothers, and Daniels. The same can be said for Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, but it’s tough to get a handle on that pic without even a trailer to view.

This is a race that will develop over the next couple of months I believe, with the exception of Cuaron and McQueen appearing to be locks.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): I have decided to make one change to my predictions and I am not taking Ron Howard out and substituting him with Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher.

BEST DIRECTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Coming next… predictions for the biggest race of all, Best Documentary Short Subject! Actually, no, I’ll make my first predictions on the five to ten features that will be nominated for Best Picture. Stay tuned!

Today on the blog I give the five actors that, at press time, I believe will be nominated for Best Actor at this year’s Oscars. In previous posts over the past week, I’ve predicted Actress and Supporting Actor and Actress. You can find those here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Much like the Best Actress category (where I feel Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine and Sandra Bullock in Gravity will definitely be recognized), I see two surefire nominees for Best Actor. Steve McQueen’s slavery drama Twelve Years a Slave has received raves from the film festival circuit and it appears its star Chiwetel Ejiofor is in line for recognition. You may know Ejiofor for supporting roles in Inside Man or American Gangster or Love Actually, but this looks to be his breakout performance. A much more known actor is my second pick for a definite nomination: Robert Redford in All is Lost, in which the veteran performer plays a sailor stranded at sea. Like Slave, Lost has garnered raves at festivals, particularly for Redford. Shockingly, this would mark only the second acting nomination for him – 40 years after The Sting. 

Besides Ejiofor and Redford, everything is uncertain and there are plenty of actors competing for the remaining three slots. I have predicted Tom Hanks to receive a Supporting Actor nod for his role as Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. He also appears a likely nominee for Paul Greengrass’ Somali pirate drama Captain Phillips. As mentioned in all other nomination posts, director David O. Russell gets his actors nominated (his last two pictures have featured seven nominees) and that could mean recognition for Christian Bale in American Hustle. Matthew McConaughey has yet to receive a nomination and he could get one for portraying an HIV positive man in Dallas Buyer’s Club. Hugh Jackman’s performance in the abduction drama Prisoners has been called career-best and he could receive his second nomination in as many years after the Les Miserables nod last year. Leonardo DiCaprio can’t be counted out for Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, though his nomination may depend on how well the pic does with the Academy. Audiences and many critics have embraced Lee Daniels’ The Butler and star Forest Whitaker could certainly benefit. Veteran actor Bruce Dern’s performance in Alexander Payne’s Nebraska has garnered high praise. Idris Elba is in contention for playing Nelson Mandela in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. Oscar Isaac may receive a nomination for the Coen Brothers Inside Llewyn Davis. Director Bennett Miller made Capote which got Philip Seymour Hoffman a golden statue in this category and Moneyball for which Brad Pitt was nominated. Miller’s new pic Foxcatcher could see Steve Carell getting his first nomination. However, at press time, it’s uncertain whether Carell will be touted for Actor or Supporting Actor. Benedict Cumberbatch plays Wikileaks founder Julian Assange in Bill Condon’s The Fifth Estate, though the pic has opened to mixed reviews over the past couple of days. There’s Ben Stiller in The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (which he directed) and Joaquin Phoenix going for his second nomination in a row with Spike Jonze’s Her. And there’s Michael Fassbender in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor which is possible though the actor is much more likely to be nominated for Supporting Actor in Twelve Years a Slave. 

So… there’s your contenders and there’s lots of ’em. As previously mentioned, I believe Ejiofor and Redford are in but the rest of the field could change quite a bit over the next many weeks until nomination time. Right now, here are my five predicted nominees:

BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofor, Twelve Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Robert Redford, All is Lost

Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

 

I’ll be back with my predictions for Best Director and then Best Picture shortly!

On the blog this evening comes part 3 of my early 2013 Oscar Predictions. I’ve already done posts for Supporting Actor and Actress which can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We’ve still got Actor, Director, and Picture to go, but it’s the leading ladies tonight with my predictions for Best Actress. I would say at this early point in the race, we already have two definite nominees. First, Cate Blanchett for her critically lauded work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, which was released this summer. She pretty much became an instant shoo-in upon the picture’s release. Then there’s Sandra Bullock in Alfonso Cuaron’s outer space thriller Gravity. That pic has played at festivals already before its October release and her performance is said to be magnificent. This would mark Bullock’s second nomination after winning four years ago for The Blind Side.

After that things become uncertain. The film festival circuit has also elevated Judi Dench for her work in Philomena. This would mark the veteran performer’s seventh Academy nomination. Emma Thompson looks like a real possibility in Saving Mr. Banks, in which she plays “Mary Poppins” author P.L. Travers as she works with Walt Disney (Tom Hanks) on the making of the classic film. As I’ve mentioned in my Supporting Actor and Actress posts, director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated. This bodes well for Amy Adams in American Hustle, though she could be competing with herself in Spike Jonze’s Her. Julia Roberts will be touted for lead in August: Osage County, though her costars Meryl Streep and Margo Martindale may receive more attention. The French romantic drama Blue Is the Warmest Colour won the Palme d’Or at Cannes including an award for its star Adele Exarchopoulos. The 19 year-old actress definitely has a shot. Both Naomi Watts in Diana (playing Princess Diana) and Nicole Kidman in Grace of Monaco (playing Princess Grace) are contenders, though I’m skeptical until we found out whether the movies are any good. Kate Winslet’s work in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day could be recognized.

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in this category instead of Supporting Actress. Reaction to the film has led to me believing Meryl gets nominated here, so I’m taking Emma Thompson out for now and putting Streep in.

Bottom line: Blanchett and Bullock are in. The rest is unclear right now, but here’s how I see the five nominations at this juncture:

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

I’ll have my predictions up for Best Actor soon!

I have already made my early Best Supporting Actress predictions on the blog which you can find here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We now move forward with Supporting Actor where I’ll list the possible nominees as I see ’em with my five predictions. Right now, there seems to be only one sure-fire nominee and that would be Michael Fassbender in Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, which screened to raves at Telluride over the weekend. He appears to be in and should stay there. After that, it’s murky. Tom Hanks could possibly be nominated for lead Actor in Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips and in this category playing Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. If Banks is well-regarded, his chances seem excellent. Matthew McConaughey is another potential double nominee. In lead Actor, his chances for November’s Dallas Buyer’s Club are high. However, his chances for either Mud or Wolf of Wall Street in this race could happen too. Speaking of Dallas Buyer’s Club, Jared Leto looks to have quite a juicy role in the picture and he’s on the radar. Jonah Hill is said to be the standout in Wolf of Wall Street and he could score his second nomination in two years after 2011’s Moneyball. Bennett Miller’s upcoming Foxcatcher is a head scratcher at press time. No one’s seen it. There’s no trailer. However, director Miller has had his last two pics (Capote and Moneyball) score nods for his cast. That means Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum could land nominations. The film’s star Steve Carell could be nominated here, too, but it’s unclear whether the studio will push him for Lead. Due to the uncertainty, I’m leaving them all off for now, but any one of them could return when I update predictions. Director David O. Russell is another filmmaker who gets his actors nominated and that could bode well for either Bradley Cooper or Jeremy Renner in American Hustle. Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity looks to be a shoo-in for Best Picture and probably Sandra Bullock for Actress and the love could certainly extend to George Clooney for his supporting role. John Goodman has been a respected actor for years but he’s never been noticed by the Academy. That could change with Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers. Relative newcomer Daniel Bruhl is said to be a bright spot in Ron Howard’s upcoming Formula One racing pic Rush. Josh Brolin could be in the mix for his role in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Jake Gyllenhall is already being touted for a “career-best” performance in Prisoners. Javier Bardem looks to have a cool role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Benedict Cumberbatch (who received positive notices this summer in Star Trek Into Darkness) could be recognized for August: Osage County. 

Bottom line: this race is very unpredictable right now, with the exception of Fassbender’s nomination. Here’s my predictions with a further prediction: this list is likely to change over the next four months.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): Now that I’ve predicted Tom Hanks will be nominated in the lead Actor category for Captain Phillips, I’m having a harder time putting him down in this category for Saving Mr. Banks. Therefore, I’m substituting Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher at press time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

George Clooney, Gravity

Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

That’s all for now, but I’ll be back with Best Actress in short order.

Bottom line?

And now, beginning on the first day of September, comes my early Oscar predictions. The race for Academy gold has truly begun over the past few days with the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals in full swing. The Toronto Film Festival is just around the corner. That means a large number of Oscar hopefuls opening this fall are screening and reviews are coming out. Due to that, we already have a number of films that now seem likely to receive nominations in the Picture category and for performers as well.

I will begin with Supporting Actress before moving onto Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and Picture. Let’s begin, shall we?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

It has yet to screen anywhere, but August: Osage County (based on a well-known play) is in talks for a number of possible nominations, especially for Meryl Streep who plays the matriarch of a severely dysfunctional family. It would appear that her performance will likely be for Supporting, though it could change to the lead Actress category. She’s pretty much considered the greatest actress of all time and her inclusion here seems probable. For the same film, the nomination of Margo Martindale (a seasoned actress who’s popped up in supporting roles in numerous pictures) is more of a question mark. I believe that if the film resonates with audiences, her performance (said to be a highlight) could be nominated. Another likelihood is the nomination of Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. The pic has caught on with audiences, her performance has received positive notices, and she’s one of the most famous people on the planet. At Telluride over the weekend, Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave screened and became an instant Oscar contender in numerous categories, including this one. The performance of newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is said to be fantastic and, at press time, I think she’s in. The rest of the race is wide open. Director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated and Jennifer Lawrence could get a nod for American Hustle. Octavia Spencer (who won two years ago for The Help) is a strong possibility for Fruitvale Station. Cameron Diaz looks to have a juicy role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Amy Adams has been nominated multiple times and her role in Spike Jonze’s Her could be recognized (though she will also be in the mix for lead in American Hustle). Naomie Harris plays Nelson Mandela’s wife in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I’m not willing to put her in until the pic is screened. June Squibb is receiving good notices for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, though Bruce Dern may receive the lions share of awards attention for that film. Same goes for Sally Hawkins’ work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine where lead Cate Blanchett will be touted the most. Blanchett herself is a contender in this category for George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, but once again she’ll probably get recognized for Best Actress in Jasmine. The crime thriller Prisoners with Hugh Jackman received raves at Telluride and Melissa Leo (winner three years ago for The Fighter) has been mentioned. The Coen Bros Inside Llewyn Davis should get nominations and that may extend to Carey Mulligan’s work. Same goes for Vanessa Redgrave in Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, which nobody has seen yet (it doesn’t even have a trailer which makes predicting for it tough at the moment).

Whew. So there’s the layout. Like I said, lots of potential nominees. As of September 1st, however, here are my predictions for the category:

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in Best Actress instead of this category. This means co-star Julia Roberts is likely to be campaigned for in this category and I’m taking Meryl out and putting Julia in. Furthermore, I no longer feel Margo Martindale gets nominated here and I’m substituting Naomie Harris as Winnie Mandela in the Mandela biopic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TODD’S PREDICTIONS):

Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it! I’ll be back with Supporting Actor soon enough…

The Telluride Film Festival is happening this holiday weekend and it is typically a venue where Oscar contenders are born. This seems to be the case for Denis Villenueve’s Prisoners (out September 20), a crime thriller starring Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall. The first screening has been met with rapturous critical reviews with more than one saying it’s career-best work from Jackman and Gyllenhall. Just last year, Jackman received his first Best Actor nomination for Les Miserables. Based on the reaction to Prisoners, it’s very well likely he’ll receive two in a row.

Canadian director Villenueve is making his American debut with Prisoners, about a child abduction. The film is set to be extremely unsettling and violent but also, according to a number of early reviews, brilliant. One prominent critic compared it to Seven and Mystic River. Based on reaction alone at Telluride, Prisoners is now in contention for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Jackman), and Best Supporting Actor (Gyllenhall). There’s also some talk already of Melissa Leo for Supporting Actress. She plays the mother of a suspect in the case.

Prisoners has immediately become a movie to pay close attention to this awards season and it’s certainly vaulted to the top of my must-see pics of the fall.

Ben Stiller has been one of the most dependable comedic stars of the past two decades. Yet he’s made nothing that garnered the Academy’s attention (with the exception of a Supporting Actor nomination for Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder). That could change this year with his directorial effort The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, in which he also stars.

The film is a remake of a 1947 Danny Kaye picture. Stiller plays a normal everyday Joe who decides to live out his adventurous fantasies across the world. The actor has had good luck with projects he’s chosen to direct, especially with his last two comedic efforts Zoolander and Tropic Thunder. Based on the trailer, this seems like the type of picture that may resonate with audiences if done well and also connect with Oscar voters. Actors known primarily for comedy have a checkered history (at best) with the Academy when they played more dramatic parts . Many thought Jim Carrey would receive a Best Actor nomination for 1998’s The Truman Show. It didn’t happen. That same year, Steve Martin was being mentioned as a potential Supporting Actor candidate for David Mamet’s The Spanish Prisoner. Once again it never materialized. Over the past ten years, however, we’ve seen examples that include a Best Actor nomination in 2003 for Bill Murray in Lost in Translation and Eddie Murphy for Supporting Actor in 2006 for Dreamgirls.

Critical reaction will be key and it’ll be awhile before the word is out on Walter Mitty. At press time, though, this looks like Stiller’s best opportunity so far for his film and his acting to receive awards attention. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, which costars Kristin Wiig, and Sean Penn, is out Christmas Day.

It’s not even September yet, but tonight on the blog I will make my first declarative statement about the Best Picture race at the Oscars:

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity will be nominated for Best Picture. I wouldn’t say pencil it in for a nomination among the five to ten films that will get recognized. You can use a pen. Director Cuaron will receive a nomination for Best Director.

Why so certain? Well, Gravity had its world premiere opening at the Venice Film Festival and many reviews are out as of this morning. You can peruse Dark Horizons’ recap of what the critics thought here:

http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/28361/first-reviews-for-gravity-arrive

Bottom line: they are in love with the picture, which is a thriller set in space starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. Cuaron is known for directing visual feasts, including Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (the first of the franchise in my view) and 2006’s Children of Men, which should have received a Best Picture nod. The reviews have gone out of their way to praise the visual look of Gravity and it will certainly receive nominations in multiple tech categories.

With all the praise that came out today, the chances of Bullock getting a Best Actress nomination and Clooney receiving Supporting Actor recognition have significantly improved. I would expect Gravity to be a big box office performer upon its October 4th release. And, now, its chances as a performer at the 2013 Oscars seem assured.