Category: Oscar Predictions

Ben Stiller has been one of the most dependable comedic stars of the past two decades. Yet he’s made nothing that garnered the Academy’s attention (with the exception of a Supporting Actor nomination for Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder). That could change this year with his directorial effort The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, in which he also stars.

The film is a remake of a 1947 Danny Kaye picture. Stiller plays a normal everyday Joe who decides to live out his adventurous fantasies across the world. The actor has had good luck with projects he’s chosen to direct, especially with his last two comedic efforts Zoolander and Tropic Thunder. Based on the trailer, this seems like the type of picture that may resonate with audiences if done well and also connect with Oscar voters. Actors known primarily for comedy have a checkered history (at best) with the Academy when they played more dramatic parts . Many thought Jim Carrey would receive a Best Actor nomination for 1998’s The Truman Show. It didn’t happen. That same year, Steve Martin was being mentioned as a potential Supporting Actor candidate for David Mamet’s The Spanish Prisoner. Once again it never materialized. Over the past ten years, however, we’ve seen examples that include a Best Actor nomination in 2003 for Bill Murray in Lost in Translation and Eddie Murphy for Supporting Actor in 2006 for Dreamgirls.

Critical reaction will be key and it’ll be awhile before the word is out on Walter Mitty. At press time, though, this looks like Stiller’s best opportunity so far for his film and his acting to receive awards attention. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, which costars Kristin Wiig, and Sean Penn, is out Christmas Day.

It’s not even September yet, but tonight on the blog I will make my first declarative statement about the Best Picture race at the Oscars:

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity will be nominated for Best Picture. I wouldn’t say pencil it in for a nomination among the five to ten films that will get recognized. You can use a pen. Director Cuaron will receive a nomination for Best Director.

Why so certain? Well, Gravity had its world premiere opening at the Venice Film Festival and many reviews are out as of this morning. You can peruse Dark Horizons’ recap of what the critics thought here:

http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/28361/first-reviews-for-gravity-arrive

Bottom line: they are in love with the picture, which is a thriller set in space starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. Cuaron is known for directing visual feasts, including Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (the first of the franchise in my view) and 2006’s Children of Men, which should have received a Best Picture nod. The reviews have gone out of their way to praise the visual look of Gravity and it will certainly receive nominations in multiple tech categories.

With all the praise that came out today, the chances of Bullock getting a Best Actress nomination and Clooney receiving Supporting Actor recognition have significantly improved. I would expect Gravity to be a big box office performer upon its October 4th release. And, now, its chances as a performer at the 2013 Oscars seem assured.

Oscar voters tend to love movies about their town and Saving Mr. Banks not only centers on Hollywood, but details the making of a beloved picture and has A-list talent involved.

The film centers on the production of 1964’s Mary Poppins, casting Emma Thompson as the book’s author P.L. Travers with Tom Hanks portraying the legendary Walt Disney. Judging from the trailer, the collaboration of Travers and Disney was not always a smooth one. John Lee Hancock is behind the camera and his last feature was an audience pleaser and Best Picture nominee, 2009’s The Blind Side. The supporting cast includes Paul Giamatti, Jason Schwartzman, Bradley Whitford, and Colin Farrell.

Saving Mr. Banks is set for a December 20th release and I would expect it to be in the conversation for not just Best Picture, but also Thompson in the Best Actress race (she won in 1992 for Howards End) and Hanks for Best Supporting Actor (he won the lead actor category in 1993 and 1994 for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump). For Hanks, he will also be in contention for Best Actor for this fall’s Captain Phillips. Hard to believe, but it’s been 13 years since his last nomination for 2000’s Cast Away. 

The picture is the latest example of one to watch come Oscar nomination time. Coming up soon on the blog, I’ll do my first round of ridiculously early Oscar predictions. Stay tuned!

It’s the #1 film in America and the box office road ahead continues to look bright. It has one of the most recognizable celebrities in the world costarring in it and going out of her way to promote it.

The commercial success and mostly positive reviews for Lee Daniels’ The Butler has virtually assured that it’s in the conversation for Oscar consideration. As mentioned, reviews have been good… but not great. The film stands at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a fine number, though most Oscar nominated pictures go beyond that.

It may not matter in this case due to its now known commercial appeal. The Butler may very well occupy the Best Picture nomination slot that The Blind Side occupied in 2009 (66% on RT) and The Help filled in 2011 (77% RT score). In other words, it could get the spot for a movie that critics were pretty cool with and audiences loved. The Butler received an A Cinemascore grade, which obviously means crowds are digging it.

If The Butler follows the path of The Blind Side and The Help, that would mean a Best Picture nomination and not a Best Director nomination. I see that as the strongest possibility.

As far as the actors, the popularity of The Butler advances the chances of Forest Whitaker being nominated for Best Actor and Oprah Winfrey getting a nod for Best Supporting Actress. At press time, the Best Actor race looks like it could be crowded and Whitaker’s nomination is certainly not assured. With Oprah, I’m more convinced of her chances. Many critics have singled out her performance and, well… it’s Oprah for goodness sake! She’s one of the most famous people in the world and I’m sure the Academy would love to have her in the mix.

Obviously, the bulk of awards contenders have yet to be released (this happens in the final four months of the year). Still, The Butler looks to be a factor this awards season.

My latest edition of 2013 films that could contend for various Oscars centers on 12 Years a Slave, which gives some actors their shot for their first acting nominations. The pic is based on the 1853 autobiography of Solomon Northup, a free black man who was kidnapped and sold into the slave trade.

From director Steve McQueen, maker of 2011’s acclaimed Shame, 12 Years a Slave features a supporting cast that includes Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, and Benedict Cumberbatch. It is Fassbender, as a sadistic slave owner, who’s been mentioned for Supporting Actor. Newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is already being mentioned for Supporting Actress.

If the movie delivers, expect lots of speculation to focus on the actor playing Solomon, Chiwetel Ejiofor. He’s one of those actors you’ll recognize from many supporting roles, including Inside Man, American Gangster, and Salt. This has a great shot at being his breakout role and a Best Actor nod could follow.

Along with The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle, The Monuments Men, and The Counselor (all of which I’ve written about previously), 12 Years a Slave is one more title expected to be mentioned in the Best Picture race. I’ll have more films in contention to talk about soon enough. Stay tuned!

Any thriller featuring the cast of The Counselor coupled with the fact that Ridley Scott (Alien, Blade Runner, Gladiator) is directing would vault it onto the list of Oscar hopefuls.

The Counselor also has the added bonus of having an original screenplay written by Cormac McCarthy, considered of the best novelists alive. If you’re not familiar with his literary works, you’re probably at least aware of some movies adapted from them: The Road, All the Pretty Horses, and the Oscar winning No Country for Old Men.

The film is a thriller about a lawyer (Michael Fassbender) who gets tangled up with some nefarious characters in the drug world. It’s got an impressive cast that includes Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, and Brad Pitt.

Oscar attention so far has focused on Picture and Director nominations, as well as the strong possibility that Mr. McCarthy gets an Original Screenplay nod. As far as the actors, it’s been Diaz and Bardem in their Supporting roles mentioned the most. Fassbender for Best Actor seems possible, but he’s also being touted already for Supporting Actor in 12 Years a Slave (I’ll have an Oscar Watch post on that one soon enough).

Director Scott saw his 2000 epic Gladiator take the top prize, but he lost Director to Steven Soderbergh for his work in Traffic. I would expect The Counselor to be a major factor in several races for 2013.

It’s got a cool story line, an all-star cast, and proven Oscar pedigree involved. December’s The Monuments Men joins American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street as films worth mentioning in the Academy Awards race for 2013.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/31/oscar-watch-american-hustle/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/03/oscar-watch-the-wolf-of-wall-street/

Last year, the Oscar for Best Picture went to Argo, from director-actor Ben Affleck and producers Grant Heslov and George Clooney. With Monuments, it’s Clooney behind the camera doing the directing duties along with producer Heslov. He’s also starring in it along with an impressive cast that includes Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin, and Bill Murray.

The plot (based on a true story) centers around a team tasked with saving pieces of art and other cultural items in World War II Germany before Hitler and the Nazis destroy them. The trailer was released today. As soon as the project was announced, The Monuments Men immediately vaulted to the top of the list of Academy friendly sounding pictures.

It’s worth noting that if Monuments delivers on its potential and does go on to win Best Picture, it would mark the third winning title in a row to feature John Goodman after 2011’s The Artist and 2012’s Argo. I’ll have to check, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a record.

The Monuments Men is likely to be a contender in the big race and Best Director. It remains to be seen if any of ensemble cast will be singled out (remember that only Alan Arkin was nominated for Argo). This is certainly one of my more anticipated fall releases. I’ll have more possible Oscar nominees for you to read about soon enough!

Earlier this week, I wrote about David O. Russell’s December release American Hustle as a strong contender for Oscar consideration in a number of categories:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/31/oscar-watch-american-hustle/

Today, we take a look at The Wolf of Wall Street (out November 15), Martin Scorsese’s latest pic chronicling Wall Street greed and corruption in the 1980s. The film is described as a black comedy and you can sense that from the completely awesome trailer released weeks ago.

Martin Scorsese is a magnet for Academy voters and any movie directed by him is automatically a contender. Four of Marty’s last five efforts earned a Best Picture nomination (Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo). Certainly the movie and its director will be discussed for nominations. So will Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor. If he’s nominated, it would mark his fourth nomination (he’s yet to win). Supporting actors Matthew McConaughey and Jonah Hill may also be in the mix. This could be one heck of a year for McConaughey… he’s also being mentioned for awards consideration for his lead role in the upcoming Dallas Buyer’s Club and supporting for Mud, which was released earlier in the year. 

And… if they could only have a category for Best Trailer, The Wolf of Wall Street should be nominated. Playing over Kanye West’s banging track “Black Skinhead”, this is the trailer I’ve watched over and over. 

Don’t be surprised to see Scorsese and company back in the mix with Oscar voters in 2013. I know I can’t wait until November 15!

This fall’s American Hustle, directed by David O. Russell, may be the definition of a surefire Oscar contender.

The six well-known stars of the picture – Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Jeremy Renner, Robert De Niro – have a combined seventeen Oscar nominations and four wins. Of the six, five of them received nominations in films directed by David O. Russell:

Bale won Supporting Actor for The Fighter

Adams was nominated for Supporting Actress for The Fighter

Cooper was nominated for Actor for Silver Linings Playbook

Lawrence won Actress for Silver Linings Playbook

De Niro was nominated for Supporting Actor for Silver Linings Playbook

By the way, Russell’s last two pics (The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook) were nominated for Best Picture. Russell himself got Best Director nominations for both titles. Beyond his American Hustle actors, it’s also worth noting that Russell directed Melissa Leo to a Supporting Actress win for The Fighter and Jacki Weaver to a Supporting Actress nomination for Silver Linings Playbook. That’s an incredible seven acting nominations in Russell’s last two pics.

Here is the plot outline from the studio:

The Untitled David O. Russell Project is based on the true story of a notorious financial con artist (Bale) and his mistress/partner in crime (Adams), who were forced to work with an out of control federal agent (Cooper) to turn the tables on other con artists, mobsters, and politicians. At the epicenter of the entire tale, is the passionate and volatile leader of the New Jersey state assembly (Renner) who is also the local hero and mayor of impoverished Camden.

And just today, the trailer for the film was released. Bottom line: it looks terrific.

If Russell stays on his winning streak and the top-notch cast delivers, you could see all of them in the mix for potential Oscar nominations. Clearly, its December release hints that the studio feels that way too. Furthermore, this appears to be the type of film that may not only compete for a Best Picture nomination, but be talked about as a likely Best Picture winner. Stay tuned!

It has taken nearly seven months, but it appears this weekend brings us the first very legitimate contender to earn an acting nomination at the 2013 Oscars. That would be Cate Blanchett in the lead role of Woody Allen’s latest, Blue Jasmine.

The picture has earned solid reviews so far (81% on Rotten Tomatoes, an “A” grade from Entertainment Weekly today), but the word on Blanchett’s performance is rapturous.

An Oscar nomination for Blanchett is hardly rare. She received her first nomination for Best Actress in 1998 for Elizabeth, losing out to Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love. In 2004, she won the Supporting Actress category for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator. Since then, Blanchett has been nominated three more times: for Supporting Actress in 2006 for Notes on a Scandal (lost to Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls), for Actress in 2007 for Elizabeth: The Golden Age (lost to Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose), and also in 2007 for Supporting Actress in I’m Not There (lost to Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton). A nod for Blue Jasmine would mark Cate’s sixth nomination.

An actor or actress being nominated for their work in a Woody Allen picture is also a common occurrence. There have been an astonishing 16 performers whose acting has been recognized by the Academy for their participation in an Allen film. Of those 16 nominations, we’ve seen six winners. They are:

Diane Keaton in Annie Hall (1977) – Actress category

Michael Caine in Hannah and Her Sisters (1986) – Supporting Actor category

Dianne Wiest in Hannah and Her Sisters (1986) – Supporting Actress category

Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway (1994) – Supporting Actress category

Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite (1995) – Supporting Actress category

Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) – Supporting Actress category

It’s worth noting that five of the six Allen directed winners are female and 11 of the 16 nominees total are women. Bottom line: Woody Allen knows how to write and direct roles for actresses to get nominated. Furthermore, he’s a master at casting.

Combine the high-level acting talent of Blanchett with the words of Mr. Allen and I would say this performance stands the greatest chance of any this year to get Oscar recognition for 2013 so far.